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2016 City of Imperial Beach Sea Level Rise Assessment

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2016 City of Imperial Beach Sea Level Rise Assessment 2016 City of Imperial Beach Sea Level Rise Assessment September 2016 Submitted to the City of Imperial Beach By Revell Coastal, LLC 125 Pearl Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 [email protected] 831.854.7873 This Page Intentionally Left Blank Contents Contents .............................................................................................................................................i Figures…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…iv Tables…………… ................................................................................................................................... v Photographs ..................................................................................................................................... vi Acronyms/Abbreviations ................................................................................................................. vii Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ 1 1. Planning Background .......................................................................................................... 1-1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1-1 Location............................................................................................................................ 1-1 California Coastal Commission Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance & Local Coastal Programs .......................................................................................................................... 1-3 The Planning Process ....................................................................................................... 1-4 San Diego Regional Context ............................................................................................. 1-5 Definitions ........................................................................................................................ 1-6 2. Physical Setting ................................................................................................................... 2-1 Geology and Historic Geomorphology and Ecology ........................................................ 2-1 Coastal Processes ............................................................................................................. 2-3 Littoral Cell ....................................................................................................................... 2-4 Geomorphology ............................................................................................................... 2-5 Shoreline Change Rates ................................................................................................... 2-6 Human Alterations to the Shoreline ................................................................................ 2-2 3. Climate Science ................................................................................................................... 3-1 Climate Cycles .................................................................................................................. 3-1 Climate Change ................................................................................................................ 3-1 Future Climate Projections: Scientific Overview ............................................................. 3-2 Uncertainty ...................................................................................................................... 3-4 Other Regional Scientific Initiatives ................................................................................. 3-5 4. Existing Conditions and Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................ 4-1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 4-1 Existing Conditions - Overview ........................................................................................ 4-2 Existing Conditions - Key Findings .................................................................................... 4-4 Vulnerability Assessment Methodology .......................................................................... 4-5 City of Imperial Beach Sea Level Rise Assessment i September 2016 Contents Nuisance and Stormwater Flooding................................................................................. 4-6 Economic Analysis Methodology ..................................................................................... 4-9 5. Adaptation ......................................................................................................................... 5-1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 5-1 Adaptation Planning ........................................................................................................ 5-1 Maladaptation ................................................................................................................. 5-2 Challenges ........................................................................................................................ 5-2 Protect, Accommodate, and Retreat ............................................................................... 5-4 Secondary Impacts ........................................................................................................... 5-5 6. Analysis of Select Adaptation Strategies .............................................................................. 6-1 Methodology and Assumptions ....................................................................................... 6-1 6.1.1 Physical Methods ............................................................................................................. 6-1 6.1.2 Economic Methods .......................................................................................................... 6-2 Armoring ........................................................................................................................ 6-10 6.2.1 Physical Results .............................................................................................................. 6-13 Managed Retreat ........................................................................................................... 6-13 6.3.1 Physical Results .............................................................................................................. 6-15 Nourishment .................................................................................................................. 6-15 6.4.1 Physical Results .............................................................................................................. 6-17 Hybrid Dune Approach .................................................................................................. 6-17 6.5.1 Physical Results .............................................................................................................. 6-19 Groins ............................................................................................................................. 6-19 6.6.1 Physical Results .............................................................................................................. 6-21 Results of Economic Analysis of Adaptation .................................................................. 6-21 Sensitivity Analysis ......................................................................................................... 6-26 Tax Revenue Impacts to the City ................................................................................... 6-28 7. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 7-1 8. Discussion – What’s next? ................................................................................................... 8-1 Policies, Plans, & Programs .............................................................................................. 8-2 Policy Implementation ..................................................................................................... 8-5 Projects: Protect, Accommodate, or Relocate ................................................................. 8-7 nancingFi Implementation ............................................................................................... 8-2 9. Preparers ............................................................................................................................ 9-2 10. Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................ 10-1 11. References ........................................................................................................................ 11-1 City of Imperial Beach Sea Level Rise Assessment ii September 2016 Contents Appendix A. Sector Profile Results…………………………………………………………………………………………………..A-1 Appendix B. Physical Processes Technical Appendix…………………………………………………………….…………B-1 Appendix C. Economic Analyses Technical Appendix………………………………………………………………..…….C-1 Appendix D. Recommendations by Revell Coastal, LLC ……………………………………………………...............D-1 City of Imperial Beach Sea Level Rise Assessment iii September 2016 Figures Page Figure 1-1 Imperial Beach Overview ..........................................................................................................................
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