Panel 4 Presentations – Enhanced Technologies for Weather Emergencies
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ITS-NY 2012 SPRING FORUM April 12, 2012 Managing Weather-Related Events with ITS Technologies PANEL 4 PRESENTATIONS “Enhanced Technologies for Weather Emergencies” Panel Moderator: “The Realities of Disasters: What New “Integrating Weather and Dr. Camille Kamga, UTRC Decision Support Systems Must Transportation Information,” Consider,” Prof. Reza Khanbilvardi, CCNY Dr. Jose Holguin-Veras, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute “Precision Weather Modeling, Analytics and “Application of High Resolution Weather Visualization for Emergency Management,” Modeling and Damage Prediction at Con Anthony Praino, IBM Edison Emergency Management,” Carlos D. Torres, Con Edison Photos by Matt Ficarra, ITS-NY Board Member and Photographer Extraordinaire 1 The Realities of Disasters: What New Decision Support Systems Must Consider José Holguín-Veras, William H. Hart Professor, Director of the Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment Acknowledgments Other contributors: Miguel Jaller, Noel Pérez, Lisa Destro, Tricia Wachtendorf Research was supported by NSF: NSF-RAPID CMMI-1034635 “Investigation on the Comparative Performance of Alternative Humanitarian Logistic Structures” CMMI-0624083 “DRU: Contending with Materiel Convergence: Optimal Control, Coordination, and Delivery of Critical Supplies to the Site of Extreme Events” CMS-SGER 0554949 “Characterization of the Supply Chains in the Aftermath of an Extreme Event: The Gulf Coast Experience” "RAPID: Field Investigation on Post-Disaster Humanitarian Logistic Practices under Cascading Disasters and a Persistent Threat: The Tohoku Earthquake Disasters" 2 Humanitarian Logistics Research Group The group has pioneered the multidisciplinary study of post-disaster humanitarian logistics: Identified lessons learned from the largest disasters of recent times; Translated these lessons into policy recommendations; Shared these suggestions with disaster response agencies; Developed new paradigms of humanitarian logistic models that account for material convergence, deprivation costs and other unique features of post-disaster operations; Conducted detailed analyses of: Hurricane Katrina, the Port-au-Prince earthquake, the tornadoes in Joplin and Alabama, Hurricane Irene, the Tohoku disasters in Japan, among others. 3 Competing paradigms Relatively new field, difficult to characterize Lacks an accepted cannon, very different than normal, tough places to visit, isolated operations, few and far between (disasters/catastrophes), small professional community, lack of published accounts, transient and dynamic operations Complex behaviors Wide range of operations: Regular HL: Distribution of aid Post-Disaster HL: Relief distribution after a disaster Wide range of extreme events: Disasters Catastrophes A qualitatively different response Differential scalability in response functions? 4 Multidimensionally Complex Phenomena Technical Logisticians A really complex Engineers socio-technical process, with internal dynamics that cannot Post- be disentangled along Disaster disciplinary lines HL Social Regular HL Disaster Catastrophe Scientists 5 Social Three essential components A social network of individuals orchestrate the logistical operations A set technical activities are performed by the social network These social and technical activities are performed over a set of supporting systems (e.g., transportation, communication) Weight 6 Our main focus (emphasis Two different environments on catastrophes) Wide Spectrum of Operations Characte- Regular Humanitarian Post-Disaster Commercial Logistics ristic Logistics Humanitarian Logistics Objective Minimization of private Minimization of social Minimization of social pursued (logistic) costs costs (logistic+deprivation) costs (logistic+deprivation) Origination of Impacted by material Self-contained Mostly self-contained cargo flows convergence Knowledge of Known with some Unknown/dynamic, lack of Uncertain demand certainty information/access to site Decision ma- Structured interactions Structured interactions Non-structured interac- king structure controlled by few DMs controlled by few DMs tions, thousands of DMs Periodicity / Repetitive, relative steady Repetitive, relative steady One in a lifetime events, volume flows, "large" volumes flows, "large" volumes large pulse Supporting Stable, though not always Impacted and dynamically Stable and functional 7systems functional changing Disaster: Joplin, Missouri (50,000 residents) 8 Disaster: Joplin, Missouri (160 deaths) 9 Catastrophe: Minami Sanriku (19,170 residents) 10 Catastrophe: Minami Sanriku (10,000 missing) 11 ITS-Related Decision Support Systems 12 ITS that could help Global Positioning Systems: ITS Japan shared GPS tracks to allow agencies to infer which roads were passable Agreements with companies to get GPS data Robust communication systems Very tricky In 1995 Kobe earthquake only cell phones worked well; in 2001 WTC only Blackberry worked well; in 2012 Tohoku disasters, only 4G Ipads worked well Systems to support coordination Emerging coordination Use of the social media to improve coordination 13 Analysis capabilities Knowledge of demand /supply: Development of models to estimate immediate resource requirements (agent- and response-generated demands) Use of remote sensing to assess state of transportation networks, and locations of groups of survivors Systems to influence behavior: Panic/precautionary buying, control strategies Response to persistent threats Emergent social practices and response structures 14 Theory, Modeling Appropriate decision support tools: Routing models, Inventory allocation models based on DCs Dynamic control models to allocate resources to manage and physically control material convergence Planning of Points of Distribution Use of quasi-real time gathering of information about emerging donation drives to both quantify donation flows, and modify donation behavior Reverse logistics Supply pre-positioning accounting for DCs 15 Thanks 16 Monitoring Weather Impacts on Transportation Dr. Reza Khanbilvardi NOAA-CREST / City University of New York; [email protected] ITS-NY 2012 SPRING FORUM Hudson Valley Transportation Management Center, Hawthorne, New York Managing Weather-Related Events with ITS Technologies April 12, 2012 OUTLINE: How Do Weather Events Impact Roads? Weather Phenomena and Impacts Rain Impacts – Flood and Flash Flood How Remote Sensing Helps Data Acquisition Sources NOAA-CREST Case Study: The flood event in Iowa How Do Weather Impact Roads? Weather acts through visibility impairments, precipitation, high winds, and temperature extremes to affect driver capabilities, vehicle performance (i.e., traction, stability and maneuverability), pavement friction, roadway infrastructure, crash risk, traffic flow, and agency productivity (www.dot.gov). Three different categories of weather impacts: 1. Roadways (Visibility distance , friction) 2. Traffic flow (Traffic speed , Accident risk) 3. Operational decisions (Traffic signal timing, Road treatment strategy) Weather Phenomena & Impacts: Major weather phenomena have certain negative impacts such as lane obstruction, …. Road Weather Traffic Flow Roadway Impacts Operational Impacts Variables Impacts Air temperature and Road treatment strategy N/A N/A humidity. (e.g., snow and ice control) Lane obstruction (due Evacuation decision Wind speed to wind-blown snow, Accident risk support debris) Fog Visibility distance Traffic speed Driver capabilities/behavior Pavement temperature Infrastructure damage N/A Road treatment strategy Pavement condition Pavement friction Traffic speed Traffic signal timing Evacuation decision Water level Lane submersion Travel time delay support Precipitation Pavement friction Traffic speed Road treatment strategy (type, rate, start/end times) Visibility distance Accident risk Evacuation decision support source: www.dot.gov Rainfall & Road Safety: In term of weather and road safety most weather-related crashes happen on wet pavement and during rainfall: 75% on wet pavement. 47% during rainfall. 15% during snow or sleet. Weather-Related Crash Annual Rates (Approximately) Statistics 707,000 crashes 11% of vehicle crashes 47% of weather-related crashes 52% of weather-related crash 330,200 persons injured 11% of crash injuries Rain injuries 46% of weather-related crash 3,300 persons killed 8% of crash fatalities fatalities source: www.dot.gov Rainfall Impacts (Flood & Flash Flood) A flash flood is a rapid rise of water along a stream or low-lying (e.g. urban area) . Flash flood damage and most fatalities tend to occur in areas immediately adjacent to a stream or arroyo, due to a combination of heavy rain, rapid snowmelt. Heavy rain falling on steep terrain can weaken soil and cause debris flow, damaging roads, and property. Flash floods can be produced when slow moving or multiple thunderstorms occur over the same area. Flash Flood Risk in Roads: • Almost half of all flash flood fatalities occur in vehicles. • Water can erode the road bed, creating unsafe driving conditions. • Underpasses can fill rapidly with water, while the adjacent roadway remains clear. Courtesy: www.noaa.gov Data Acquisition Sources: In Situ Data Collection (usually direct Observation) Remote Sensing Data Collection: - Aerial Photography - Satellite imagery & Observations - Radar (NEXTAD) Measurements Model Output Products Multi-Source Data Acquisition TRMM NASA NOAA-M MW, IR EOS TMI, PR, VIRS VIS, NIR, IR POES-M MODIS VIS, NIR, IR SOUNDING ASTER, CERES AMSU- Precipitable Water Wind Speed