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Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go from Here?

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Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go from Here? HARVARD UNIVERSITY JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT Caspian Studies Program Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go From Here? April 23, 2001 Caspian Studies Program, Harvard University Summary and Transcript From a Panel Discussion with: Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, U.S. Special Negotiator for Nagorno-Karabagh and NIS Regional Conflicts, OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair Professor Hamlet Isaxanli, President of Khazar University, Baku Professor Ronald Suny, Department of Political Science, University of Chicago Chair: Dr. Brenda Shaffer, Research Director of the Caspian Studies Program PREFACE At the Caspian Studies Program at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, we have been following the Nagorno-Karabagh peace process with great interest and have been encouraged by significant signs of progress this spring. Following the April 3-7 negotiations convened in Key West, Florida by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Caspian Studies Program organized a special panel discussion entitled “Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go From here?” on April 23, 2001 in Cambridge. Dr. Brenda Shaffer, Research Director at the Caspian Studies Program, moderated the panel which included Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, U.S. Special Negotiator for Nagorno-Karabagh and NIS Regional Conflicts and OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair; Professor Hamlet Isaxanli, President of Khazar University in Baku; and Professor Ronald Suny, Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago. The panelists discussed the progress made at Key West, the prospects for peace moving forward, and the challenges to establishing lasting peace in the region. More than one hundred researchers, graduate students, current and former U.S., Azerbaijani, and Armenian government officials, journalists, and other members of the Harvard community attended the panel and engaged the panelists in a rich and lively discussion after their presentations. The panel received extensive press coverage in the U.S. and in the region. This report, prepared by the Caspian Studies Program staff, contains a summary and full transcript of the panel discussion as well as photographs from the event. Emily Van Buskirk authored the summary of the event and Pamela Jewett transcribed the panel discussion. The full report, along with numerous other research products, articles, and event summaries relating to the Nagorno-Karabagh peace process are available on our web page: www.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia/sdi. The Caspian Studies Program seeks to locate the Caspian region on the maps of the American policy-making community as an area in which the U.S. has important national interests and where U.S. policy can make major differences. Through its research and teaching, the Program attempts to raise the profile of the Caspian region’s opportunities and problems. Undoubtedly, the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict is one of the greatest challenges facing the region and one of the most important steps toward development and improving the lives of the people in the Caspian region. The next round of negotiations, initially planned for June in Switzerland, has been postponed. Nevertheless, we hope that the momentum gained over the past few months, and the high level U.S. and international involvement—demonstrated by Secretary Powell’s participation in the Key West negotiations, and President Bush, President Chirac, and President Putin’s bilateral meetings with Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev and Armenian President Robert Kocharian—combined with the numerous ongoing local and international non- governmental initiatives for peace, will lead to a successful, lasting peace settlement. Melissa Carr Program Director, Caspian Studies Program ii HARVARD UNIVERSITY JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT Caspian Studies Program Contents Preface ii Panel Summary 2 Panel Transcript 8 Photographs Center (following page 15) iii PANEL SUMMARY Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go From Here? Caspian Studies Program, Harvard University April 23, 2001 Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, U.S. Special Negotiator for Nagorno-Karabagh and NIS Regional Conflicts, OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair Professor Hamlet Isaxanli, President of Khazar University, Baku Professor Ronald Suny, Department of Political Science, University of Chicago Chair: Dr. Brenda Shaffer, Research Director of the Caspian Studies Program From April 3-7, 2001 the Organization for Pursuant to the Key West peace talks, the Security and Cooperation in Europe convened Caspian Studies Program at Harvard negotiations in Key West, Florida, aimed at University’s John F. Kennedy School of achieving a peace settlement for the Nagorno- Government held a panel discussion entitled, Karabagh conflict.1 U.S. Secretary of State “Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Colin Powell opened this set of talks between do we go from here?” on April 23, 2001. Dr. Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev and Brenda Shaffer, Research Director at the Armenian President Robert Kocharian, each Caspian Studies Program, moderated the of whom met separately with Secretary panel, which included Ambassador Carey Powell in Florida and, subsequently, in Cavanaugh, Professor Hamlet Isaxanli, and Washington D.C. with President Bush. The Professor Ronald Suny. Together, the United States, France and Russia were the panelists discussed the progress made at Key mediators at the negotiations, as co-chairs of West, potential policies for selling peace to the OSCE “Minsk Group” (which includes 13 the populations of Azerbaijan and Armenia, countries) established in 1992 as part of an and the prospects for peace moving forward. effort to end the conflict.2 The chief negotiator on the U.S. side at Key West was Ambassador BRENDA SHAFFER framed the discussion Carey Cavanaugh, who is the State with a series of questions for the panelists. Department’s Special Negotiator for the She asked, what are the potential pitfalls on conflict on a constant basis. The negotiations the path to peace? What role do history and were held in proximity format, meaning that identity (or their construction) play in the facilitators held separate talks with each of conflicts and their resolution? How does one the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia. prepare public opinion for peace? She discussed the role of democracy in peace negotiations, pointing out that successful 1 The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan negotiations often demand secrecy, that over Nagorno-Karabagh, a mountainous enclave presidents are elected to lead and that within Azerbaijan’s borders but with a majority leadership often demands making unpopular Armenian population for decades, has waged since 1988, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and decisions. over a million internally displaced persons. A ceasefire has held since 1994. AMBASSADOR CAVANAUGH opened by 2 The current members of the Minsk Group are explaining the need for peace in the region, Norway, Austria, Belarus, Germany, Italy, arguing that “Peace is a prerequisite for Sweden, Finland, Turkey, France, the Russian progress” in all spheres, especially economic Federation, the United States, Armenia, and development. The Nagorno-Karabagh conflict Azerbaijan. 2 PANEL SUMMARY has already killed 35,000 and there continues find workable solutions. The presidents know to be a casualty rate of 1 person per day. The that “peace cannot be perfect, but it must be population of Armenia is hemorrhaging from better than the present,” and that while the an enormous outflow of economic refugees, peace will please some, it will anger others. and 800,000 Azerbaijanis are sitting in However, it is essential to realize that very refugee camps. It is the task of the presidents few people have come up with viable of both countries to explain to their publics alternatives to a peace solution: a resumption that peace is “possible, permissible, and of war would lead to a deplorable situation practical.” which would benefit neither side. Fighting in the past did not yield for either country what The international community, through the they need or want. “Peace is the only way,” OSCE Minsk Group, has been involved in the Cavanaugh concluded. peace process for the past ten years. But the structure of negotiations has changed over The progress between the two time. Ambassador Cavanaugh explained that after the presidents rejected three proposals presidents has been so great that from the Minsk Group in 1997-98, it was felt they are ahead of their people. a better indication of what might be possible was needed. This led to direct engagement According to HAMLET ISAXANLI, the optimal between the Presidents of Azerbaijan and proposal for peace would be a “common Armenia. house” solution between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This solution would entail a power “Peace is a prerequisite for sharing agreement (“shared competencies”) progress” –Ambassador for Nagorno-Karabagh but also a vertical link from Karabagh to the center of the country in Cavanaugh Baku. The “common house” would allow transparency of borders between Armenia and The two presidents have met 16 times since Azerbaijan, trade development between the 1999, and the details of those talks have been two countries, academic initiatives, and confidential. Earlier this year the format cooperative regional educational and cultural changed again as the presidents met with one developments. He described such another in Paris and then with French arrangements of shared competencies as ideal President Jacques Chirac. After a second for Georgia as well. meeting in Paris, a different format was chosen which would bring mediation While Azerbaijanis are of one mind that performed by the Minsk Group co-chairs to “peace is good,” they also believe that the peace negotiations between the presidents: so- peace must be “just.” Professor Isaxanli called “proximity talks.” The Key West cautioned that the armed forces and certain summit occurred in this new format, and political and powers in Azerbaijan are against afterwards all parties agreed that substantial any kind of power sharing, and that a military progress had been made, and that the format frame of mind is taking hold of increasing should be repeated in June in Geneva, numbers of Azerbaijanis.
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