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Mid-Year Update: 10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2021
Red Lines: Up- heaval and Con- tainment in the Horn of Afri- ca Red Lines: Up- heaval and Con- tainment in the Horn of Afri- ca MID-YEAR jhkjUPDATE: 10 CONFLICTS TO WORRY ABOUT IN 2021 The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) August 2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS (in no particular order) ETHIOPIA 2 INDIA AND PAKISTAN 5 MYANMAR 8 HAITI 11 BELARUS 14 COLOMBIA 17 ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN 20 YEMEN 23 MOZAMBIQUE 27 THE SAHEL 30 EDITED BY: Timothy Lay, Roudabeh Kishi, and Sam Jones GRAPHICS BY: Adam Miller, Josh Satre, and Elliott Bynum LAYOUT BY: Sogand Afkari WITH CONTRIBUTIONS BY: Braden Fuller and Clionadh Raleigh (Ethiopia) Ashik KC (India and Pakistan) Elliott Bynum (Myanmar) Sandra Pellegrini and Maria Fernanda Arocha (Haiti) Franklin Holcomb (Belarus) Bhavani Castro (Colombia) Franklin Holcomb (Armenia and Azerbaijan) Valentin d'Hauthuille (Yemen) Sam Ratner (Mozambique) Héni Nsaibia (The Sahel) ACLED ANALYSIS | ACLEDDATA.COM | 1 ANALYSIS Ethiopia: Administrative contests in the context of rising ethno-nationalism Braden Fuller and Clionadh Raleigh The summer of 2021 has been the most destabilizing efforts by the central government to govern the re- time yet in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s tenure. While gion (VOA Amharic, 1 June 2021; Office of the Prime the general election resulted in the Prosperity Par- Minister – Ethiopia, 3 June 2021). As federal soldiers ty’s (PP) overwhelming victory, violence from multi- struggled to maintain territorial control, Ethiopia’s ple active insurgencies in Ethiopia has overwhelmed top officials have faced heavy diplomatic pressure federal resources, with the threat posed by the Tigray — including sanctions — over the involvement of Er- People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) most apparent in re- itrean troops, civilian targeting, and sexual violence cent summer months. -
Ambassador Rudolf V. Perina
The Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training Foreign Affairs Oral History Project AMBASSADOR RUDOLF V. PERINA Interviewed by: Charles Stuart Kennedy Interview Date: December, 2006 Copyright 200 TABLE OF CONTENTS Background Born in zechoslovakia, raised in Morocco, Switzerland, and the United States University of hicago, olumbia University Foreign Area Fellowship, Munich, (ermany 1970,1972 Marriage .ntered the Foreign Service in 1974 Ottawa, anada0 1otation Officer 1974,1972 Solzhenitsyn visa case 1elations .nvironment State Department0 .uropean Bureau, Military,Political Officer 1972,1978 NATO onference on Security and ooperation in .urope 5 S .6 Belgrade Meeting US and Soviets on Human 1ights Helsinki Final Act 1efuseniks State Department, FSI8 1ussian language training 1978,1979 Moscow, Soviet Union0 Political Officer, .9ternal 1979,1981 Soviet military activities Soviet Afghanistan invasion 1elations Soviets and uba US boycott of Soviet Olympics Sino,Soviet split Harassment Living environment Poland Berlin, (ermany8 Protocol/ Senate Liaison Officer 1981,1985 1 Liaison with Soviets on Berlin Polish aircraft hijackings US Strategic Defense Initiative 1elations with US .ast Berlin .mbassy Terrorist gangs Brussels, Belgium8 NATO Political Officer and Deputy 1985,1987 Political ommittee Nuclear and Space talks Sharing with Soviets SDI and INF deployment National Security ouncil, Soviet issues 1987,1989 Iran ontra fallout 1eagan's "tear down the wall" speech Views on Soviet collapse 1eagan's Moscow visit 1eagan and (orbachev 1omania visit onference on Security and ooperation in .urope 5 S .6 1989 London Information Forum Paris onference on Human Dimension Vienna, Austria0 Deputy Head of US delegation to S .. 1989,1992 Negotiations on onventional Forces in .urope 5 F.6 NATO and Aarsaw Pact Forces Negotiations with Soviets (ermany reunified .uropean Union/US relations The French 1ussians Aarsaw Pact disintegration (ermany and NATO .astern vs. -
Asala & ARF 'Veterans' in Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Region
Karabakh Christopher GUNN Coastal Carolina University ASALA & ARF ‘VETERANS’ IN ARMENIA AND THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH REGION OF AZERBAIJAN Conclusion. See the beginning in IRS- Heritage, 3 (35) 2018 Emblem of ASALA y 1990, Armenia or Nagorno-Karabakh were, arguably, the only two places in the world that Bformer ASALA terrorists could safely go, and not fear pursuit, in one form or another, and it seems that most of them did, indeed, eventually end up in Armenia (36). Not all of the ASALA veterans took up arms, how- ever. Some like, Alex Yenikomshian, former director of the Monte Melkonian Fund and the current Sardarapat Movement leader, who was permanently blinded in October 1980 when a bomb he was preparing explod- ed prematurely in his hotel room, were not capable of actually participating in the fighting (37). Others, like Varoujan Garabedian, the terrorist behind the attack on the Orly Airport in Paris in 1983, who emigrated to Armenia when he was pardoned by the French govern- ment in April 2001 and released from prison, arrived too late (38). Based on the documents and material avail- able today in English, there were at least eight ASALA 48 www.irs-az.com 4(36), AUTUMN 2018 Poster of the Armenian Legion in the troops of fascist Germany and photograph of Garegin Nzhdeh – terrorist and founder of Tseghakronism veterans who can be identified who were actively en- tia group of approximately 50 men, and played a major gaged in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (39), but role in the assault and occupation of the Kelbajar region undoubtedly there were more. -
Michael S. Gorham P
Michael S. Gorham P. O. Box 115565 Gainesville, Florida 32611-5565 USA Phone: 352-273-3786 E-Mail: [email protected] Homepage: http://people.clas.ufl.edu/mgorham Last updated: May 2021 EMPLOYMENT Full-time Positions 2015–present Professor of Russian Studies, Dept. of Languages, Literatures and Cultures, University of Florida 2017–2019 University of Florida Term Professor of Russian Studies, Dept. of Languages, Literatures and Cultures, University of Florida 2014-2015 Robin and Jean Gibson Term Professor, Dept. of Languages, Literatures and Cultures, University of Florida 2003-2015 Associate Professor of Russian Studies, Dept. of Languages, Literatures and Cultures, University of Florida 1996-2005 Assistant Professor of Russian Studies, Dept. of Germanic and Slavic Studies, University of Florida Visiting Appointments 2013 Visiting Research Fellow, Uppsala Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Uppsala University, Sweden 2010 Visiting Professor, Department of Slavic Literature and Culture, University of Passau, Germany 2008 Visiting Research Fellow, Department of Foreign Languages, University of Bergen, Norway Editorships 2007-2019 Associate Editor, The Russian Review. (top-tier journal producing 4 issues annually, with international area-studies readership). Primary responsibility for soliciting and vetting manuscripts in Literature (all areas) and Cultural Studies. 2005-2017 Associate Editor, Russian Language Journal. (1 issue annually, with international readership in all areas of Russian language scholarship). Primary responsibility for book reviews and (through to 2014) soliciting and vetting manuscripts in Language Culture, Sociolinguistics, and Language Ideologies. Consulting 2011-present Specialist on the Russian Internet and new media technologies for Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. EDUCATION 1994 Ph.D., Stanford University, Slavic Languages and Literatures 1988 M.A., Bryn Mawr College, Russian Language and Literature 1985 B.A. -
June 18, 2009 Summary of JIIA Forum Presentation by Elmar Mammadyarov, Minister of Foreign Affairs (Republic of Azerbaijan) “A
June 18, 2009 Summary of JIIA Forum Presentation by Elmar Mammadyarov, Minister of Foreign Affairs (Republic of Azerbaijan) “Azerbaijan at the Crossroad of East and West and Its Role in Regional Security and Prosperity” I am very grateful for having had the opportunity during my current visit to Japan to meet with the Crown Prince, Prime Minister Aso, Foreign Minister Nakasone, and other distinguished figures. In our discussions yesterday, the foreign minister and I exchanged views on the worldwide political situation and on UN reform. I informed him that Azerbaijan is in agreement with Japan on the need for UN reform and declared our support for making Japan a permanent member of the UN Security Council. On the Nagorno-Karabakh issue between Azerbaijan and Armenia, I received support for Azerbaijan’s stance on the territorial/border issue emphasizing the peace proposals put forth when the ceasefire was negotiated. Today I would like to talk about the priorities for Azerbaijan’s foreign policy: regional security and prosperity. Azerbaijan is situated at the junction of Central Asia and Europe, bordered by Russia to the north and Iran to the south, and it has access to the Caspian Sea and a wealth of energy resources. As you no doubt know, our country serves as a corridor in the southern Caucasus region for the transport of energy from Central Asia to Georgia and Turkey. Determining how to supply the natural resources our country possesses and to which international markets to supply them have become foreign policy issues. In the religious makeup of our country Muslims account for the majority, but there is toleration for other religions and Azerbaijan serves as a bridge between cultures. -
Appeasement and Autonomy | Armenian
APPEASEMENT AND AUTONOMY BRIEF / 2 Jan 2021 Armenian-Russian relations from revolution to war by GEOPOLITICALSERIES Narek Sukiasyan PhD candidate and teaching associate at Yerevan State University, Armenia Summary › Armenia’s 2018 Velvet Revolution did not INTRODUCTION change the country’s foreign and secu- rity policy priorities: a close security al- Armenia’s foreign policy and its role in the post-Soviet liance with Russia has been used to bal- space are often characterised as ‘pro-Russian’. While ance its regional adversaries Turkey and such a description is partially true, it is overly sim- Azerbaijan; however, the revolutionary plistic. This Brief analyses the main trends and evolu- prime minister Nikol Pashinyan has also at- tions in Armenia’s Russia policy after the 2018 Velvet tempted to increase Armenia’s autonomy Revolution: how the changes have influenced Russia’s vis-à-vis Russia. approach towards Armenia, how these dynamics af- › Pashinyan’s attempts to address the for- fect Armenia’s autonomy and what the consequences mer presidents’ abuses of power and cur- of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war are for Armenia’s tail Russian influence in Armenia, coupled regional security and alliances. with moves that could have been interpret- ed as anti-Russian, have created tensions After the revolution and up until the 2020 with Moscow. Nagorno-Karabakh war, no substantial strategic changes were made to Armenian foreign policy. The › The need to sustain the strategic alliance leadership has avoided framing its external affairs in circumstances in which the Kremlin has in geopolitical ‘pro or against’ terms, promoting a been deeply mistrustful of Armenia’s new ‘pro-Armenian’ policy that aims to maintain good re- leadership has forced Pashinyan’s govern- lations in all directions and prioritises sovereignty as ment to appease Russia. -
Security Aspects of the South Stream Project
BRIEFING PAPER Policy Department External Policies SECURITY ASPECTS OF THE SOUTH STREAM PROJECT FOREIGN AFFAIRS October 2008 JANUARY 2004 EN This briefing paper was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs. It is published in the following language: English Author: Zeyno Baran, Director Center for Eurasian Policy (CEP), Hudson Institute www.hudson.org The author is grateful for the support of CEP Research Associates Onur Sazak and Emmet C. Tuohy as well as former CEP Research Assistant Rob A. Smith. Responsible Official: Levente Császi Directorate-General for External Policies of the Union Policy Department BD4 06 M 55 rue Wiertz B-1047 Brussels E-mail: [email protected] Publisher European Parliament Manuscript completed on 23 October 2008. The briefing paper is available on the Internet at http://www.europarl.europa.eu/activities/committees/studies.do?language=EN If you are unable to download the information you require, please request a paper copy by e-mail : [email protected] Brussels: European Parliament, 2008. Any opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. © European Communities, 2008. Reproduction and translation, except for commercial purposes, are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and provided the publisher is given prior notice and supplied with a copy of the publication. EXPO/B/AFET/2008/30 October 2008 PE 388.962 EN CONTENTS SECURITY ASPECTS OF THE SOUTH STREAM PROJECT ................................ ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................iii 1. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 1 2. THE RUSSIAN CHALLENGE................................................................................... 2 2.1. -
Nagorno-Karabakh's
Nagorno-Karabakh’s Gathering War Clouds Europe Report N°244 | 1 June 2017 Headquarters International Crisis Group Avenue Louise 149 • 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 • Fax: +32 2 502 50 38 [email protected] Preventing War. Shaping Peace. Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. Ongoing Risks of War ....................................................................................................... 2 A. Military Tactics .......................................................................................................... 4 B. Potential Humanitarian Implications ....................................................................... 6 III. Shifts in Public Moods and Policies ................................................................................. 8 A. Azerbaijan’s Society ................................................................................................... 8 1. Popular pressure on the government ................................................................... 8 2. A tougher stance ................................................................................................... 10 B. Armenia’s Society ....................................................................................................... 12 1. Public mobilisation and anger -
Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go from Here?
HARVARD UNIVERSITY JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT Caspian Studies Program Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go From Here? April 23, 2001 Caspian Studies Program, Harvard University Summary and Transcript From a Panel Discussion with: Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, U.S. Special Negotiator for Nagorno-Karabagh and NIS Regional Conflicts, OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair Professor Hamlet Isaxanli, President of Khazar University, Baku Professor Ronald Suny, Department of Political Science, University of Chicago Chair: Dr. Brenda Shaffer, Research Director of the Caspian Studies Program PREFACE At the Caspian Studies Program at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, we have been following the Nagorno-Karabagh peace process with great interest and have been encouraged by significant signs of progress this spring. Following the April 3-7 negotiations convened in Key West, Florida by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Caspian Studies Program organized a special panel discussion entitled “Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go From here?” on April 23, 2001 in Cambridge. Dr. Brenda Shaffer, Research Director at the Caspian Studies Program, moderated the panel which included Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, U.S. Special Negotiator for Nagorno-Karabagh and NIS Regional Conflicts and OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair; Professor Hamlet Isaxanli, President of Khazar University in Baku; and Professor Ronald Suny, Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago. The panelists discussed the progress made at Key West, the prospects for peace moving forward, and the challenges to establishing lasting peace in the region. More than one hundred researchers, graduate students, current and former U.S., Azerbaijani, and Armenian government officials, journalists, and other members of the Harvard community attended the panel and engaged the panelists in a rich and lively discussion after their presentations. -
Designate Matthew J. Bryza by Senator Barbara Boxer (#1) Senate Foreign Relations Committee July 22, 2010
Questions for the Record Submitted to Ambassador – Designate Matthew J. Bryza by Senator Barbara Boxer (#1) Senate Foreign Relations Committee July 22, 2010 Question: On June 18, a violent clash took place near Nagorno-Karabakh that left four ethnic Armenian troops and one Azerbaijani soldier dead. During your confirmation hearing, you suggested that Azerbaijani soldiers moved across the “Line of Contact.” If this is the case, why hasn’t the U.S. government been more forceful in its condemnation of Azerbaijan? Is the Government of Azerbaijan actively trying to escalate the conflict with Armenia? Answer: As Secretary Clinton made clear during her recent trip to the Caucasus, the United States condemns the use of force and regrets the loss of life that resulted from the incident during the night of June 18-19, 2010. The full details of what occurred on June 18 are not known. Regardless, the U.S. government believes strongly in the inadmissibility of the use of force or the threat of force and reiterates the need to remain engaged in the Minsk Group Process in pursuit of a peaceful settlement of the conflict. With active mediation by the United States and its French and Russian counterparts in the OSCE’s Minsk Group, President Aliyev and Sargsian have established an ongoing dialogue in an effort to achieve a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict and the parties have come far towards reaching a mutually acceptable agreement. In June, 2010 the Presidents of the Minsk Group Co-Chair countries (France, Russia, and the United States) issued a joint statement calling on the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to “take the next step and complete the work on the Basic Principles to enable the drafting of a peace agreement to begin.” If confirmed as Ambassador, I will urge President Aliyev to maintain his commitment to the Minsk Group process and do everything possible to support the U.S. -
A New Way for the Caspian Region: Cooperation and Integration
A NEW WAY FOR THE CASPIAN REGION: COOPERATION AND INTEGRATION Azerbaijan is a pivotal state in what is emerging as the new Caspian political order. The region in one way or another connects Asia, the Middle East, Russia and Europe. As such it is the home to many civilizations; it is an energy and trade hub, and a gateway to the Far East countries, Europe, Russia and the Middle East. Caspian energy is of strategic significance for China and Europe. A trans-Caspian component to our energy development is a win-win for all. The Europe dimension is a part of Azerbaijan’s orientation. However, we are not knocking on the EU door asking for membership. This is a long-term perspective which should be considered and addressed in due time. Azerbaijan is committed to pursuing a multi-variable approach to regional development. In the end, success will depend on our ability to cooperate. Elmar Mammadyarov* * Elmar Mammadyarov is foreign minister of Azerbaijan. Introduction Energy trends in the global market have brought international attention back into the Caspian region. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Caspian region was marred by conflicts, corruption and state failure. Since then much has changed. The conflicts are protracted, corruption is being dealt with and states are increasing their internal institutional and human know-how. The energy sector is booming with the help of international partners and through domestic reforms on both the east and west coasts of the Caspian Sea. The Caspian region needs a multidimensional international outlook. Azerbaijan is a pivotal state in what is emerging as the new Caspian political order. -
The View from Abkhazia of South Ossetia Ablaze
Central Asian Survey Vol. 28, No. 2, June 2009, 235–246 The view from Abkhazia of South Ossetia ablaze Paula Garbà Department of Anthropology, University of California, Irvine, USA The Abkhazian and South Ossetian perspectives on the fighting between Georgians and South Ossetians in August 2008 could not be heard above the noise generated around the geopolitical implications of the larger Russian–Georgian clash. The population of Abkhazia experienced the violence in South Ossetia as though it was occurring on their own territory. This confirmed their complete lack of trust in the Georgian government’s commitment to peaceful resolution of the conflicts. In addition, they were disappointed with what they regarded as the international community’s absence of criticism of Georgia’s actions and lack of concern for the safety and well-being of the South Ossetians. Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence has taken the question of Georgia’s territorial integrity off the negotiation table indefinitely. It also has set back the formal peace process with both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. An essential way forward, toward establishing trust as a necessary foundation for progress in the political negotiations, would be for the US and other interested countries to engage with the people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia at all levels, demonstrating credible and consistent concern for the safety and well being of all the people affected by the conflict. Keywords: conflict; culture; Abkhazia; South Ossetia Introduction Georgian–Abkhazian official relations since the end of the 1992–1993 war have offered little common ground for a mutually acceptable resolution.