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Planning Support for Reducing Risks Related to Flooding a Case Study of Flood Response in Kista Residential Area and Igelbäcken Stream, Sweden

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Planning Support for Reducing Risks Related to Flooding a Case Study of Flood Response in Kista Residential Area and Igelbäcken Stream, Sweden EXAMENSARBETE INOM ENERGI OCH MILJÖ, AVANCERAD NIVÅ, 30 HP STOCKHOLM, SVERIGE 2017 Planning support for reducing risks related to flooding A case study of flood response in Kista residential area and Igelbäcken stream, Sweden KAJSA LUNDGREN KTH SKOLAN FÖR ARKITEKTUR OCH SAMHÄLLSBYGGNAD Planning support for reducing risks related to flooding: A case study of flood response in Kista residential area and Igelbäcken stream, Sweden KAJSA LUNDGREN TRITA-LWR Degree Project ISSN 1651-064X LWR-EX 2017:13 Abstract Flooding has been identified as the most widespread and most frequently occurring natural disaster by the United Nation. Sweden is no exception when it comes to being affected by flooding, and several major flood events have been seen in recent years. The Swedish National Board of Building, Housing and Planning published a report on climate adaption in 2010 where they stated that Sweden is missing over all strategies and goals meet the demands of more frequent and intense rain events. Present thesis aimed to develop planning support for integration of hydrological perspectives in urban planning to manage water related risks such as flooding and high water levels. This was done through hydrodynamic modelling in MIKE FLOOD, developed by the DHI, where a 1D stream model was coupled with a 2D free-surface flow model. The model was run for three different scenarios reflecting current conditions (Scenario 1), climate change (Scenario 2) and land use change (Scenario 3). The study area chosen for present study was Kista residential area, located northwest of Stockholm, and part of Igelbäcken stream that runs by Kista. Igelbäcken stream was represented by a 1D stream model in the software MIKE 11 provided by DHI and Järfälla municipality, whereas a 2D model in MIKE 21 for Kista and the stream surroundings was setup throughout the project. Data was provided by Stockholm Vatten och Avfall and processed in ArcMap before it could be used in the modelling. The MIKE 21 model required data regarding topography, land use, and precipitation. A 100-year flood, based on a series of designed rain events with various duration and intensity, was used as precipitation input to replicated a hypothetical major rain event. Flooding in Scenario 2 was more extensive than flooding in Scenario 1, which was expected since Scenario 2 was based on a 100-year flood with a climate change factor of 1.25 and projection for year 2100. Scenario 3, which represented a “worst case” scenario with all planned exploitation of Kista identified as impermeable surface, forced the water to move further down in the topography compared with Scenario 1. Several buildings were more or less surrounded by at least 0.3 meter of water in Scenario 3. Water levels in Igelbäcken stream were strongly affected by the rain events and showed an increase of 0.4, 0.9, and 0.4 meter for the three scenarios at the end of the simulations which lasted for six hours. In conclusion, findings of present study show larger flooding extent that previously performed studies in the area and they reflect fast response in Igelbäcken stream with respect to increased water level. Indicating that effects from major rain events should not be underestimated. Furthermore, the findings could prove useful for identification of major runoff pathways and identification of suitable locations for multifunctional with respect to infiltration and retardation, if available at an early stage in the planning process. Thus, this type of study could prove useful for integration of hydrology in the urban planning process. Keywords: Planning support, blue green solutions, hydrodynamic modelling, MIKE FLOOD, climate change adaption, land use change Sammanfattning Översvämningar har identifierats som världens mest utspridda och vanligast förekommande naturkatastroftyp av FN. Sverige är inget undantag när det kommer till påverkas av översvämningar, under de senaste åren har flera stora översvämningar förekommit i landet. Boverket publicerade 2010 en rapport gällande Sveriges hantering av klimatanpassning. Slutsatsen av denna rapport var att övergripande strategier och mål för klimatanpassning saknas när det gäller hantering av kraftiga skyfall och att bättring krävs för en hållbar samhällsutveckling. Denna studie syftade till att utveckla planeringsstöd för integrering av ett hydrologiskt perspektiv i urban planering för att hantera vattenrelaterade risker så som översvämning och höga vattennivåer. Detta gjordes genom hydrodynamiks modellering i mjukvaran MIKE FLOOD, utvecklad av DHI, där en 1D vattendragsmodell kopplades till en 2D ytavrinningsmodell. Modellen kördes för tre scenarion: nuläget (Scenario 1), klimatförändring (Scenario 2) och förändrad markanvändning (Scenario 3). Förorten Kista, belägen nordväst om Stockholm, och den del av Igelbäcken som passerar Kista valdes som studieområde. Igelbäcken representerades av en 1D vattendragsmodell, MIKE 11, som tillhandahölls av DHI, medan en 2D ytavrinningsmodell i MIKE 21 sattes upp för Kista och Igelbäckens omgivning under projektets gång. Data tillhandahölls av Stockholm Vatten och Avfall och bearbetades i ArcMap innan den kunde användas i modelleringen. MIKE 21 modellen baserades på data rörande topografi, markanvändning och nederbörd. Ett 100-års regn, baserat på en serie möjliga 100-års regn med varierande intensitet och varaktighet, användes som nederbördsdata för att efterlikna ett hypotetiskt kraftigt skyfall. Översvämning i Scenario 2 hade en större utbredning än Scenario 1, vilket var väntat då Scenario 2 baserades på ett 100-års regn med en klimatförändringfaktor på 1.25 och en klimatprojektion för år 2100. Scenario 3, vilket representerade ett ”värsta möjliga” scenario med all planerad exploatering i Kista definierad som icke genomsläpplig yta, tvingade vatten som ansamlats på ytan att röra sig längre ner i topografin eller fångade det på nya ställen i studieområdet jämfört med Scenario 1. Ett flertal byggnader var till stor del omringade av ett vattendjup på åtminstone 0.3 meter i Scenario 3. Vattennivåer i Igelbäcken var inledningsvis väldigt låga, men påvisade sedan en ökning av 0.4, 0.9 samt 0.4 meter i respektive scenario vid simuleringens slut (vilken varade i sex timmar). Sammanfattningsvis påvisade studien större översvämningsspridning än tidigare genomförd översvämningsmodellering i området. Vidare visade resultaten en snabb respons i Igelbäcken med avseende på vattennivåförändringar vid simuleringens slut. Detta indikerar att påverkan från kraftiga skyfall inte bör underskattas. Resultaten ses som användbara i ett tidigt stadie av planeringsprocessen för identifiering av viktiga ytavrinningsvägar i landskapet samt för lokalisering av lämpliga ytor för etablering av multifunktionella ytor, till exempel parker, med avseende på infiltration och fördröjning av dagvatten. Denna typ av studie kan därmed ses som användbar för integration av ett hydrologiskt perspektiv i den urbana planeringsprocessen. Nyckelord: Planeringsstöd, blå-gröna lösningar, hydrodynamiskmodellering, MIKE FLOOD, klimatanpassning, markanvändning Acknowledgements First, I want to acknowledge my supervisor Zahra Kalantari, senior research scientist at Stockholm University, department of physical geography, and examiner Ulla Mörtberg, associate professor at KTH Royal Institute of technology, division of land and water resources engineering, for initiating the project and giving me an introduction to the academic world. They, together with funding from the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, made it possible for me to gain new experiences through participation in the European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU) in Vienna, Austria, where I got to present my work. It has been an honour to work with such experienced researchers. Secondly, I would like to express my gratitude to Henny Samuelsson and Stockholm Vatten och Avfall, Sweden’s largest water and waste company, for providing me with data and guidance. Without their support, the performance and outcome of present project would not have been possible to achieve. Furthermore, I want to thank the DHI for providing free software license and Steve Berggren-Clauser, DHI, for helping me with the MIKE 11 model used for representation of Igelbäcken stream. This recognition also extends to Järfälla municipality whom allowed me to use the existing model of Igelbäcken stream in my work. At last, a big thank you to the ISSUE-project from which the idea of this thesis was sprung, and which has contributed with important meetings for networking and project input. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Problem formulation ................................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Aim and objectives ................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Focus and limitations ............................................................................................................... 4 2 Background ....................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Hydrodynamic modelling ........................................................................................................ 4 2.1.1 MIKE 11 ................................................................................................................................
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