Atlantic Council SOUTH ASIA CENTER

IRAN TASK FORCE BY YASMIN ALEM AND BARBARA SLAVIN Rouhani’s First One Hundred Days: Cautious Domestic Reforms and Nuclear Breakthrough

NOVEMBER 2013

After eight turbulent years during which conservatives monopolized Iranian politics, the election of centrist Atlantic Council Iran Task Force cleric Hassan Rouhani on June 14, 2013, marked a new, The Iran Task Force, launched in 2010 and chaired yet in some ways familiar chapter in post-revolutionary by Ambassador Stuart Eizenstat, performs a Iranian politics. It was new in the sense that his comprehensive analysis of Iran’s internal political sweeping victory demonstrated unprecedented popular landscape, as well as its role in the region and the desire for change and elite recognition of the need for world, to answer the question of whether there are a less confrontational foreign policy. But Rouhani’s elements within the country and region that can presidency is also familiar because the team he has build the basis for an improved relationship with assembled is drawn from the old guard of the Islamic the West and how these elements, if they exist, Republic, which enabled the regime to survive following could be utilized by US policymakers. the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. The Iran Task Force is a project of the Atlantic The serious economic and international challenges Council’s South Asia Center, and is supported of today have an air of déjà vu for many of these generously by a grant from the Ploughshares Fund. technocrats. The majority served under President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who spearheaded the war-ravaged country’s reconstruction from 1989 to 1997.1 The United States can facilitate Rouhani’s efforts Rafsanjani’s successor, Mohammad Khatami, whose by implementing the historic nuclear agreement thwarted Many efforts of tothese repair figures Iran’s went relations on to withwork the for reached on November 24. This agreement validates West while increasing personal liberties present a the new president’s approach and eases the pressure cautionary tale for the Rouhani administration. Most of sanctions on the Iranian economy in return for Khatami appointees were sidelined by his successor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who drew on a group of the agreement fails, the best opportunity for progress religious conservatives and military and security onstringent, everything verifiable from thecurbs nuclear on Iran’s issue nuclear to economic program. and If service veterans known as principlists for upholding social reforms in at least a decade may be lost. the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. If there is one phrase that characterizes Rouhani’s 1 For a biography of President Rouhani’s cabinet members and top advisers, see http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/08/130804_l51_rouhani_ cabinet_ministers.shtml (in Persian). worldview and style of governance, as exemplified by his first one hundred days in power, it is “anything Yasmin Alem is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. She is the author of Duality by Design: the Iranian Electoral System.

Barbara Slavin is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, a journalist, and author of Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US and the Twisted Path to Confrontation (St. Martin’s Press, 2007). but Ahmadinejad.” The new president’s softer tone and Germany (P5+1). Khamenei was quick to praise 2 with the world the historic agreement reached in Geneva November 245 and the Iranian media has portrayed the deal and call for “constructive interaction” is in stark contrast with his firebrand predecessor’s inflammatory rhetoric. Only two months after taking low-levelas an affirmation enrichment of Iran’s of uranium nuclear but rights. cannot Under increase the administration,office in 2005, Ahmadinejad by contrast, calledhas steered Israel clear “a tumor” of itsfirst stockpile. six-month Iran phase pledged of the to accord, stop enriching Iran will uranium continue that should be “wiped off the map.” The Rouhani to 20 percent U-235—close to weapons grade— and the established lexicon of the Islamic Republic. Instead, to blend down and oxidize the approximately 200 Rouhanireferring and to the his Jewish team have state referred as the “Zionist to the country regime,” kilograms of 20 percent uranium it has amassed over the past two years. Iran will also freeze most work at all. The government also cancelled an annual anti- a heavy water reactor called Arak that if completed, Israelas “Israel” conference. or relied A onTwitter context account to avoid run naming by President it at could yield plutonium, another potential bomb fuel. It will also provide the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) with unprecedented daily access to congratulatoryRouhani’s office Rosh and theHashanah official messagesTwitter account to the Jewishof enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow. In return, people.Foreign3 MinisterIn the economic Mohammad domain, Javad Rouhani Zarif extended has restored the Iranians will receive about $7 billion in sanctions monitoring and planning agencies dismantled by relief, largely on their own oil earnings which have Ahmadinejad and has brought more transparency and been frozen abroad. Iran will be able to continue to stability to the Iranian economy. He has not followed export oil at current reduced levels to Asian clients, Ahmadinejad in making frequent provincial trips, resume trade in petrochemicals, automobiles, and which were seen as wasteful populist gestures that did precious metals, and gain improved access to imported not lead to successful long-term government projects. food and medicine. The United States, European Union, Rouhani also established a better understanding with and UN Security Council also pledge not to pass new the parliament and avoided mass purges of personnel nuclear-related sanctions against Iran over the next in government agencies. to negotiate a comprehensive agreement that will Breakthrough on Nuclear Issue six months. During this time, Iran, and the P5+1 are Although the balance of power in the executive has low-level uranium enrichment under stringent curbs, shifted toward the center, all other nodes of power andverifiably remove cap all the nuclear-related Iranian nuclear sanctions. program, permit are still under principlist control. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has honored the tradition of that is more inclusive, pragmatic, and cautious than providing the new president with his support and thatRouhani’s of his firstpredecessors. one hundred But daysRouhani’s augur fate a presidency ultimately blessing, but he has also criticized some of Rouhani’s hinges on his ability to salvage Iran’s economy, which foreign policy ventures, particularly his initial efforts depends on surmounting domestic and international to break the taboo of direct high-level US-Iranian obstacles to implementing the Geneva agreement and contact by speaking on the phone with President concluding a comprehensive accord that peacefully resolves the nuclear crisis. If these efforts succeed, the same time, Khamenei has protected the Rouhani Rouhani could become the most successful president Barack Obama at the United Nations in September. At in the history of the Islamic Republic. 4 in renewed nuclear negotiations with the team against hardline criticism and called for “heroic Rouhani’s First Acts flexibility” five permanent members of the UN Security Council presented a well-balanced list of nominees to the Washington Rouhani’s first test was assembling a cabinet. He Post, September 19, 2013, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013- Iranian parliament on the day of his inauguration. 2 Hassan Rouhani, “Why Iran Seeks Constructive Engagement,” 09-19/opinions/42214900_1_violence-world-leaders-hassan-rouhani. Excluding extremists from both principlist and reformist camps, the president clearly demonstrated Haaretz, September 7, 2013, http://www. 3 Barack Ravid, “Are Rohani’s Rosh Hashanah Blessings a Diplomatic haaretz.com/blogs/diplomania/.premium-1.545503 his desire to move beyond the divisive politics that Signal?” Diplomania (blog), ; “Iran Foreign http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23990717. Minister Zarif Tweets Happy Jewish New Year,” BBC, September 6, 2013, Nuclear Talks,” http://www.leader.ir/langs/fa/index. 5 “The Supreme Leader’s Response to the President’s Letter About the IranWire, September 18, 2013, . php?p=contentShow&id=11312 (in Persian). 4 Reza HaghighatNejad, “What Does Khamenei Mean by ‘Heroic Flexibility?’” http://iranwire.com/en/projects/2687

2 ATLANTIC COUNCIL paralyzed his predecessors. Having served twenty In his second major institutional shake up, Rouhani years in the parliament and over twenty-three years transferred responsibility for Iran’s nuclear in Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), negotiations from the SNSC to the Foreign Ministry.7 In including sixteen as its head, Rouhani understands a recent memoir, the new president described the SNSC the importance of negotiating and building alliances as useful for consensus building, but too cumbersome with a wide array of factions and institutions. for sensitive multilateral negotiations. He noted that Thus, he offered concessions to the conservative ruling establishment with his choices for ministers and pessimistic views on foreign relations, the nuclear of interior, culture, defense, and justice. But he teamduring had past to negotiationscoordinate every “due singleto domestic step with pressures senior made no compromises on key appointments6 in two 8 The shift provides the administration with areas high on his political agenda: the economy and increased control over the diplomatic process. But itofficials.” also makes the administration more vulnerable diplomat, to serve as his foreign minister and chief to criticism because the process no longer has the foreign policy. He nominated Zarif, a US-educated Supreme Leader’s explicit imprimatur on tactical moves as it had when the secretary of the SNSC was veterannuclear negotiator.of three governments And despite prior fierce to oppositionAhmadinejad, to Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator. What’s more, the servefrom principlists, as minister ofRouhani oil. What selected distinguishes Bijan Zanganeh, Rouhani’s a new structure gives parliament oversight over the new cabinet from its predecessor is that it represents diplomatic process, which could create new obstacles forces from across the political spectrum and relies for the government.9 on results-oriented technocrats rather than ideology- the new decision-making structure has provided Rouhani with greater Despite agility tothe conduct associated diplomacy risks, by in cultivating a wide swath of US legislators, think entrusting career diplomats in the Foreign Ministry tankers,driven politicians. and journalists Zarif, whilefor example, stationed succeeded in New with the task of carrying out negotiations while distancing the day-to-day process from actors who view the nuclear issue purely through a security foreignYork as investmentIran’s UN ambassador for Iran’s petroleum from 2002 sector until 2007. prism.10 followingZanganeh theis credited Iran-Iraq with war. attracting significant The Economy Rouhani’s cordial relationship with the parliament has not provided him with carte blanche, however. In the promised to implement a series of measures in his During the presidential campaign, Rouhani rejected three of the president’s eighteen proposed economic concerns of the population. Following his ministers.first round In of the confirmation second round, hearings, it approved the parliament two of inauguration,first one hundred he outlined days to addresshis top economic the immediate priorities: three nominees. In the third round, his pick for the improving the living standards of Iranians, increasing a few days short of Rouhani’s government reaching itsministry one-hundredth of youth affairs day mark, was theonce Iranian again rejected.parliament Only

7 From 2003 to 2013, the secretary of SNSC also served as Iran’s lead nuclear empty post. This was a reminder that Rouhani’s negotiator. electionfinally approved has done Rouhani’s little to change fourth the candidate fractious for nature the 8 Rouhani, Hassan, National Security and Nuclear Diplomacy (Tehran: Center for Strategic Research, 2011), p. 342. of Iranian politics. members of the P5+1, a senior lawmaker, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, warned 9 For instance, ahead of the October 15-16 negotiations between Iran and

[parliament] will not authorize the acceptance of the Additional Protocol that “As long as unfair and irrational US policies continue, Majles because lawmakers are highly sensitive about safeguarding national of Ali Larijani, the speaker of parliament. Ali Jannati, minister of culture, is 6 Rouhani’s choice for the ministry of interior, Rahmani Fazil, is a close ally the son of the Guardian Council’s hardline secretary, Ayatollah Jannati. http://english.irib.ir/news/iran-a-iaea/ interests.” See “Majlis Not to Accept Additional Protocol,” IRIB World Though the younger Jannati’s views are closer to those of former president item/118100-majlis-not-to-accept-additional-protocol. Service, October 1, 2013, Rafsanjani, the selection appeased conservatives who vehemently opposed 10 In the run up to the June presidential election, Mohammad Hossein Adeli, a former member of Iran’s nuclear negotiating team, described one of the of defense, is a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards. Mahmoud reformist personalities heading the ministry. Hossein Dehghan, minister Alavi Tabar, the minister of intelligence, is a former member of the diplomatic decision-making to the Foreign Ministry.” He criticized the fact fundamental challenges for the incoming administration as “returning Assembly of Experts. He has close ties to conservative groups aligned with that Iran’s foreign policy decisions were managed by security-military the former commander of the Revolutionary Guards Mohsen Rezaei. groups and not the diplomatic corps.

ATLANTIC COUNCIL 3 11 of its oil revenue due to sanctions, the government is But reversing the devastating impact of eight years facing major obstacles to sustaining the subsidy reform oftheir increasingly purchasing draconian power, and sanctions reducing and inflation. economic program that Ahmadinejad launched in 2009. Rouhani’s mismanagement is no easy feat. Ahmadinejad left the economic team has repeatedly warned that the program

rate, a negative economic growth rate, double-digit unemployment,country’s economy millions in ruins, of dollars with a of42 government percent inflation peopleis in deep previously deficit and deemed that there entitled is not to enoughthem. To revenue this end, debt to private contractors, municipalities, and the theto make government cash handouts proposed to alland of received the seventy-five parliament’s million industrial sector, and a private sector in shambles. approval to stop paying roughly twenty million people, nearly 30 percent of recipients. Such bold actions might be necessary, but they risk exacerbating discontent amend the Ahmadinejad-bequeathed budget, which among large swaths of the population. Rouhani’sOne of Rouhani’s team deemed first economic unrealistic. initiatives The government was to announced that nearly one third of the revenue Although the competence of the new economic team anticipated by Ahmadinejad in the 2013-2014 budget and higher hopes for a peaceful resolution of the could not be realized. Rouhani then, moved to restore nuclear crisis have brought a degree of stability to the planning organization that Ahmadinejad had the Iranian economy, sanctions relief will be key to scrapped in the early years of his presidency and preventing a major economic crisis. The government will seek to capitalize on the Geneva accords to lure country’s economic recovery. The plan included back major international oil companies and has offered removingapproved aunnecessary twenty-five-point hurdles plan in customs, to jumpstart facilitating the more lucrative contracts in part to persuade powerful access to lines of credit for traders, stabilizing the multinational oil giants to lobby Western governments currency, and supporting the private sector. to ease sanctions.

Rouhani opted to deal with the increased presence Mixed Record on Human Rights of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Rouhani pledged greater respect for human rights and the country’s economy, a legacy of Ahmadinejad’s social freedoms during his campaign and expectations administration, in a nuanced manner. Mindful of the were high in the aftermath of his inauguration. risks of antagonizing the powerful leadership of this However, the president’s performance so far has been elite force, Rouhani invited the Guards to have control a mixed bag. The new government has eased pressure over three or four large national projects, instead of on the press, lifted restrictions on the coverage of competing with the private sector across all areas previously banned topics such as the future of US-Iran of the economy. In this endeavor, Rouhani seems to have the blessing of Khamenei, who told a group of IRGC commanders in September that the IRGC should therelations, Ahmadinejad and withdrawn government. fifty14 government But there have motions also focus on guarding the revolution and not stretch itself beenfiled againstsetbacks. Iranian For instance, journalists the andreformist media newspaper outlets by

cultural and economic spheres.”12 subsequently arrested15 for publishing an article that “across to all spheres including scientific, intellectual, Bahar was banned in October 2013 and its editor Though the new administration has managed to Shiite Imam, as a political as opposed to a religious increase Iran’s short-term oil exports by 20 percent,13 leader,questioned a topic the considered authority ofsacrilegious Ali Ibn Abi byTalib, a regime the first Rouhani’s most important challenge remains increasing whose supreme authority is a Shiite cleric. government revenues. Given Iran’s diminished petroleum exports and the inaccessibility of much

11 Other promises have remained just that. During the Agency, August 5, 2013, (in Persian). “The Rouhani Administration’s Guiding Principles,” Iranian Students’ News campaign, Rouhani pledged to draft a “citizens’ rights 12 14 http://bit.ly/18WY7vQ Al-Monitor, September 19, 2013, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/ http://www.mehrnews.com/ Koroush Avaei, “Will Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Reduce Economic Role,” “Rouhani Fulfills First Campaign Promise to the Media: Cancellation of originals/2013/09/rouhani-asks-revolutionary-guard-scale-back.html. (in Persian). Complaints,” Mehr News, October 8, 2013, 13 15 detail/News/2151564 Last Month,” Khabar Online http://khabaronline.ir/ 2013, http://news.yahoo.com/iran-arrests-head-reformist-daily- “Rouhani’s Latest Success: Iran’s Oil Exports Increase by 20 Percent in the “Iran Arrests Head of Reformist Daily,” Agence France-Presse, November 2, detail/317173/Economy/energy (in Persian). . , October 12, 2013, wife-163737276.html

4 ATLANTIC COUNCIL charter” and submit it to parliament for approval. For than two hundred people including Kurdish political an administration that has been exceptionally open16 and prisoners, members of the Baluch ethnic minority and candid about its programs, no news has emerged about the content of this charter. There has been little or no progress on Internet censorship, an issue that Rouhani thedrug fate traffickers of political have prisoners been executed and the since implementation Rouhani discussed at length before and after his election oftook capital office. punishment It is, however, remain important under theto remember purview that victory.17 of Iran’s judiciary, whose chief is appointed by the must have access to all information worldwide,”18 the only progress Despite has asserting been breaking that the the “Iranian taboo of people using have expressed disappointment over the new wave ofSupreme repression, Leader.20 the Although administration several governmentappears loath officials to engage in a power struggle with hardline factions Facebooksocial networks and Twitter by top for officials. public Sincediplomacy taking purposes. office, amidst the nuclear negotiations. However,both Rouhani ordinary and Foreign Iranians Minister still have Zarif trouble have accessing used these sites and heavy censorship of the Internet The Rouhani administration has also acted with restraint in response to a bill passed in parliament that rhetoric has not been backed by action include changes would allow a stepfather to marry his stepdaughter tocontinues. the segregation Other areas of the in sexes which and Rouhani’s strict enforcement reformist or adopted daughter. This legislation caused uproar of the hijab code. among women’s rights advocates inside and outside Iran as well as the wider human rights community The latest report by Ahmed Shaheed, the UN special who see the legislation as legalizing child abuse and rapporteur on human rights in Iran, concludes that statutory rape.21 After enlisting the support of several clerical sources of emulation and female lawmakers, with no sign of improvement in the areas previously Iran’s vice president for women’s and family affairs raisedthe situation by the “continuesGeneral Assembly to warrant or the serious various concern, human announced that the government has set up a working rights monitoring mechanisms.”19 Iran continues to group to draft a bill seeking to amend the controversial execute more prisoners per capita than any country. clause in the law.22 And although the Rouhani government has freed forty-two political prisoners, including Iran’s most Rouhani has taken concrete measures to deliver on one prominent human rights activist Nasrin Sotoudeh, of his key promises: desecuritizing universities. At the they represent a small fraction of the country’s start of the academic year, the Ministry of Research, prisoners of conscience. According to Shaheed’s report, Science, and Technology (MSRT) announced that it at least forty journalists and twenty-nine bloggers would no longer target and expel students because of and online activists are still in jail along with at least their political and personal beliefs. At the same time, it encouraged those banned from pursuing higher studies Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, presidential in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to reenroll without having candidatesfive hundred in other 2009, human remain rights under defenders. house arrest Mir and to take the nationwide entrance exam. So far, four in deteriorating health despite Rouhani’s pledge hundred students have been permitted to reenroll.23 to address their situation. At the same time, more The MSRT also set up an internal committee to review cases of university faculty dismissed or forced into

16 This, however, will not be the first time an Iranian president attempts to 20 detail and codify the specific right of Iranian citizens. Former President Guardian Council rejected his government’s draft legislation. Khatami tried and failed to pass a “Citizens’ Rights Bill” in 2002, after the “Iranian Government Official Dismayed at Rise in Executions,” 17 Chelcheragh, a reformist aligned http://www.iranhumanrights.org/2013/11/executions-kurdistan/. International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, November 6, 2013, 21 In his first interview as president with cannot live or govern in a quarantine.” LobeLog, November 2, 2013, http://www.lobelog.com/womens-rights-are- Iranian weekly magazine, Rouhani said, “In the age of digital revolution, one Fariba Parsa, “Women’s Rights are Linked to U.S.-Iran Negotiations,” 18 linked-to-u-s-iran-negotiations/. Peace,” NBC News, September 19, 2013, http://worldnews.nbcnews. 22 F.Brinley Bruton, “Iran President Blames Israel for ‘Instability,’ Calls for com/_news/2013/09/19/20573897-exclusive-iran-president-blames- Children,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, November 8, 2013, ht t p:// Golnaz Esfandiari, “Iran Law Could Allow Adults to Marry Their Adopted israel-for-instability-calls-for-peace?lite. 19 Ahmed Shaheed, UN General Assembly, Report of the Special Rapporteur on html. www.rferl.org/content/iran-law-marrying-adopted-children/25162057. the Situation of Human Rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran 23 http://shaheedoniran.org/english/dr-shaheeds-work/latest-reports/ http://america.aljazeera.com/ , October 4, 2013, Lisa de Bode, “Iranian student-outlaws seek new life under Rouhani,”Al october-2013-report-of-the-special-rapporteur-on-the-situation-of-human- Jazeera America, November 6, 2013, rights-in-the-islamic-republic-of-iran-2/. html. articles/2013/11/6/iranian-student-outlawsseeknewlifeunderrouhani.

ATLANTIC COUNCIL 5 retirement by Ahmadinejad’s government.24 Finally, conservative factions that continue to control key the ministry took decisive action in dismissing several institutions such as the parliament, judiciary, and the hardline heads of universities in response to student military. The new president has thus been careful not petitions and campaigns.25 to invest too much political capital in hotly-contested approach prevented him from nominating Jaffar areas such as human rights. For now, his focus appears Yet, Rouhani’s cautious to be on using the momentum created by his electoral these reforms, as minister. This failure casts doubt victory to end the stalemate in nuclear negotiations onTofighi, how farthe the MSRT’s government caretaker will and push the the person envelope behind in and revive Iran’s anemic economy. A foreign policy promoting academic freedom. victory could help him consolidate his power and deal with rival power centers on social issues from a The Rouhani administration has demonstrated greater position of strength. tolerance for civic activism than its predecessor, but has less of a laissez-faire approach toward civil society The United States should implement the Geneva groups than the Khatami government (1997-2005). agreement and work hard to conclude a comprehensive For example, more than a dozen grassroots campaigns nuclear accord with Iran, which would bolster the focused on less politically charged issues such as the Rouhani government and give it the political space it environment have been permitted to operate freely needs to introduce other reforms. Failure to implement Tehran’s House of Cinema, the historic framework concluded in November would an independent professional26 association that supports undermine Rouhani and provide new ammunition since Rouhani took office. to hardline elements that have largely held their shut down during Ahmadinejad’s administration, has beenabout reopened. five thousand The reopeningIranian filmmakers was one of and Rouhani’s artists, complicate Rouhani’s efforts to resuscitate Iran’s campaign pledges, and the ceremony was attended by ailingfire during economy the past and couldone hundred deprive days. him ofThis the would Supreme Iran’s new minister of culture.27 This positive trend, Leader’s essential backing. Under such circumstances, however, has not extended to more politically sensitive the Rouhani government would have to adopt more institutions. For example, the Association of Iranian hardline policies to survive the remainder of its term. Journalists, the country’s largest independent union This is a prospect neither in the interest of the United of journalists dedicated to protecting and promoting States, Iran, or the international community. the rights of journalists, bloggers, writers, and photographers, remains closed.

Conclusion Rouhani’s success in easing social restrictions and improving Iran’s human rights situation will largely depend on his ability to negotiate with rival

24 Since 2009, between 50 and 150 university faculty members have been forced to retire or have been dismissed due to their personal and political

for Reinstatement,” International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, opinions. See “Dismissed University Professor Awaits Response to Request http://www.iranhumanrights.org/2013/10/dismissed- reinstatement/. October 12, 2013, 25 Among those dismissed was Sadreddin Shariati, the controversial head of Allameh Tabatabai University, the country’s top humanities academic institution, who was instrumental in implementing gender segregation on campus and eliminating thirteen branches of the social sciences from the

University,” Payvand, September 2, 2013, http://www.payvand.com/ curriculum. See “Iran: Caretaker Minister Fires Controversial Head of news/13/sep/1005.html.

Save Mountain from Mining,” Payvand, September 15, 2013, http://www. 26 “Iranian Mountain Climbers, Environment Activists Form Human Chain to payvand.com/news/13/sep/1098.html. 27 Rights in Iran, September 12, 2013, http://www.iranhumanrights. “House of Cinema Opens in Tehran,” International Campaign for Human org/2013/09/house-of-cinema-2/.

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