July 22, 2013 MORGAN STANLEY BLUE PAPER MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH Global Rupinder Vig1 +44 20 7425 2687
[email protected] Penny Butcher1 +44 20 7425 6698
[email protected] John Godyn2 +1 212 761 6605
[email protected] Nigel Coe2 +1 212 761 5574
[email protected] Commercial Aviation Aerospace & Defence, Airlines, Multi- Industry A Renewed Lease of Life *See page 2 for all contributors to this report 1 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ 2 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Aircraft manufacturers can expect to enjoy several years of strong demand, as order flows remain healthy, financing is getting easier and growth in aircraft lessors smooths the cycle. Three factors give us confidence this cycle will be stronger for longer: Backlog confidence is rising. Backlogs for aircraft OEMS (original equipment manufacturers) are at all-time highs and now come from a more diversified customer base. High oil prices are driving demand for fuel-efficient aircraft, airlines in developed markets need to replace older fleets, and growth is still robust in emerging markets. Our bottom-up analysis of Boeing and Airbus backlogs suggest a low risk of cancellations. Financing hurdles are easing. EM banks and export credit agencies have allowed DM airlines to focus on return-enhancing replacements and EM airlines on expansion. We look at new financing opportunities available as the EETC market opens beyond the US, which should help airlines with attractive fleet orders to finance in the high-yield market. Leasing companies are playing a crucial role. Often overlooked, the proliferation of aircraft lessors plays a vital role in stabilising the commercial OEM cycle, enhancing the capital base, diversifying the customer base and bringing liquidity to the market.