J I .. COASTAL AND premise that presents far-reaching, multi-disciplinary MARINE : COPING scientific challenges. While changes in climate are the WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS norm, increasingly man has become an agent of that ASSOCIATED EFFECTS change. Consequently, environmental problems associated with the potential impact of climate changes F. Gable are an important concern for governments and planners Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (United States) in the Caribbean region.

Abstract: Coastal and marine tourism in many parts of Projected changes in global and regional climate during the Caribbean is a significant source of revenue and the nm 50 or so years are likely to be controlled by tourism is the leading economic sector as a whole. On the changes in the concentrations of radiatively active Caribbean , effectively all tourism development gasses such as carbon dioxide, methane, has occurred in the coastal areas, where the beaches are chlorofluorocarbons, tropospheric ozone and water the principal attraction. vapor. These trace. gases individually and collectively change the radiative balance of the atmosphere and Relatively few of the most intensively developed resorts may cause a rise in global mean surface air temperature have beaches broader than about 30 meters at high tide, by trapping more heat near the Earth's surface. As a and qualitative assessments show that most of the world's consequence, climatologists generally agree that sandy shorelines are in retreat. This situation is likely to significant global warming is likely. Moreover, most get wor.se, in part, because ocean level rise, a possible climatologists are now convinced that the warming of ancillary effect of climate change, has risen by about 15 the past century - about o.s> C (Karl et al., 1989) - is em ( 1/2 foot) during the past centwy. Both the increasing not the result of faulty interpretation of climate records wanning (about 0.5 • C past 100 year.s ), possibly due, in such as the progressive warming due to urban growth part, to the build up of anthropogenic trace gases in the (Kerr, 1989). atmosphere, and the increasing level of the seas are projected by computer modeler.s to increase over the next The concomitant global warming from anthropogenic several decades. With this prognosis, several shore areas trace gasses already disbursed in the atmosphere from of the Caribbean may suffer increasing adverse effects, man's industrialization and agricultural practices will both to the environment and to the econQmy. likely mean significant, though uncertain, changes in regional climate. The major problem facing the marine and adjacent coastal areas will result from the additive effects of environmental modification associated with climate change coupled with current environmental Tourism is a big business. The United States stress . . Department of Commerce reports that it is the fastest growing industry worldwide. They also predict that by The present and projected use of coastal and nearshore the turn of the century tourism will likely be the world's areas of the Caribbean region for economic number one industry. Already, however, coastal and development, tourism, fiSheries and mariculture, waste marine tourism in many parts of the Caribbean is a disposal, mining of non-living resources, harbor significant source of revenue and is the leading development and municipal growth (USAID, 1987) economic sector in the Caribbean as a whole (UNIDO, . highlights the urgency of adopting policies to deal with 1987). Latest available estimates place annual revenues projected impacts resulting from climate change. at $7.3 billion (Caribbean Tourism Organization, 1989; Figure 1). Throughout the Caribbean islands, effectively This paper reviews selected tourism-oriented all tourism development has occurred in coastal economies, discusses coastal areas in the Caribbean nearshore areas, where the beaches are the principal already experiencing environmental degradation, and attraction (Gable and Aubrey, 1990). addresses the ramifications of anticipated climate changes on these and other areas in the Caribbean. Research assessments indicate that about 70% of the What strategies (planning) ought to be taken, world's sandy shorelines are experiencing erosion (Bird, considering the magnitude of uncertainty that exists in 1985; Bird, 1987); this is particularly true for the the projections of global climate change, is also Caribbean region where relatively few of the most addressed. intensively developed resorts (tourist facilities) have beaches broader than about 30 meters at high tide.

This data is important because of the current environmental hypothesis of global climate change, a Gable 249

Physical and Cultural Attributes identity and may overshadow any monetary benefits (Bastin, 1984). Nevertheless, tourism and the needs of The , an arm of the Atlantic Ocean, is tourists has already led to the modification of the bounded by the on the north and east, coastal and marine habitats and, when coupled with South America on the south and the isthmus of Central anticipated changes in climate, could present unfamiliar America on the west. The Can"bbean connects with the and costly problems. Gulf of Mexico to the northwest through the Yucatan Channel. It includes an area of 1,019,500 square miles. Several oceanographic and atmospheric currents pass Nature of Environmental Problems through in an east-west direction. Contained within the "Caribbean region" is the largest concentration of small Vtrtually all of the independent nations bordering the developing countries in the world (UNIDO, 1987). The are developing countries. For many "Canobean Basin" is comprised of 33 countries (plus Caribbean countries and territories the major source of additional territories) within and around the Caribbean revenue is coastal/nearshore tourism. As a Sea (UNIDO, 1987), (see: Tables I and 2). consequence of human economic activities (including tourism), degradation of the marine and coastal The Caribbean countries display diversity of character environment is being felt basin wide (Rodriguez, 1981; and form, though they collectively face similar (climate Goudie, 1987). Although problems associated with change) and inter-related (climate change and the environmental degradation may be confmed primarily nearshore environmental stress) problems. Their to the coastal areas of most countries, their effects are resource base - particularly for the entities - is more widespread due to patterns of water circulation, limited in scale and scope, yet some of the most prevailing wind systems, nearshore bathymetry and productive and complex ecosystems found in the world terrestrial topography. Limits to how quickly natural exist in the Caribbean coastal zone (UNIDO, 1987; ecosystems can respond to the combination of climatic USAID, 1987). changes when juxtaposed upon present environmental degradation is of especial concern (Gleick, 1989) .. · The economic importance of coral reefs, beaches, seagrass beds, mangrove forests, and coastal estuarine Mangroves are an important resource throughout the ecosystems derives mostly from their linkage to other Caribbean because they aid in nutrient removal, control resources, especially coastal tourism and fiSheries local mean water levels and flow direction, and act as (USAID, 1987). These coastal and' marine habitats sediment baffles, spawning grounds, nurseries and contribute a large percentage of income, especially to feeding habitats for traditional and commercially the Greater and Lesser economies. Recent important fmfish and crustaceans. The prevalent economic performance of many Caribbean countries practice of mangrove 'clear cutting' and filling for land depicts tourism, construction and agricultural and fuel results in increased siltation and eliminates the production (bananas) as the leading sectors in gross shoreline stabilization these forests provide particularly domestic product (GDP), particularly in the smaller, during severe storms. less-developed economies in the region (UNIDO, 1987). Other current environmental problems, particularly in the eastern Caribbean, include the use of coral reefs as Culturally, the peoples of the Caribbean. are a mix of a raw material for the making of cement and aggregate. African, Asian, European and Native American. Tables Dredging for the construction of engineering works I and 2 provide selected socioeconomic and such as jetties, for example, as well as other demographic data concerning the island and continental developmental works has led to the destruction of some countries and territories in the Caribbean Basin. Most coral reefs. Moreover, the recent discovery of mass of the smaller island states have economies that are bleachings on Caribbean coral reefs may be related to based on tourism, including the distinctive micro-states global warming trends through higher seawater of the British , Cayman Islands, , temperatures (Porter et al., 1989) and may be an early Montserrat and the Turks and Caicos. In addition, indicator of climate change (Goreau, 1990). The Antigua and Barbuda, , , the general decaying of most of the coral reefs in the and the United States Virgin Caribbean Basin from over-fishing, pollution, Islands (USVI) among others rely heavily upon income · sedimentation from nearshore erosion, and physical from tourists. As a consequence, in some cases, the destruction due in part to the dragging of ship anchors influx of tourists during the northern hemisphere winter and plundering for souvenirs - may have reduced the season is large enough so that when averaged out capacity of coral reefs to endure temperature changes tourists outnumber the year round residents. This (Bunkley-Williams and Williams, 1990). The additional situation could lead to a loss of indigenous cultural 250 Caribbe1111 Coastal and Marine

L:llld Area Populauon .Per l..apua income fsq kml fest.l s An2\lllla 91 1. !9 l.914 Anaeua ana Barouda J42 '7.093 -.0 53 Anloa 193 04AII! :-lA ~ U~42 zJ~.ooo I .~ 30 lrarllados 4jl 2~4.000 4:-9":rr -s-on:ure ~lUI 11.000 6.390' lJntish Vimn islmds 153_ 12.000 6.246 uvman Islands l.bU u.ooo f~2

Source: The World Bank Adas, 1988. UNIDO. 1987, World Almanac. 1989

Tt.lble 1: Selected statistics on Can'bbean island countries and territories.

Land Area Populauon Per l..apua Income (s kml (est. I $ Belize I. :.9_ 13 1.1 .JOi I~SO ColomDI& I. i.9 4 .:10.~ .JOi 1.430 CosmRica 5 ,/ 00 ,lSI .>04 1.655 FrenciiGwana "J 1.909 3.230 Guatemala IUll.lii!O IS. 1.120 Guvana _Z14.970 . -557 Honduras 114.01!8 4, /00 MexJCO 1,971!.800 1!3. 1-:950 Nicar.unm 147.900 .:1. -840 Panama i:l.650 7..100. z-:o60 Sunname 14_pU9 1()(., 2:920 Venezuela _'>lg.U5U 11!.760. 658

Source: The World Bank AtLas. 1988, UNIDO, 1987, World Almanac, 1989

Tt.lble 2: Selected statistics on Caribbean continental countries and tem'tories. Gable 251 stress of climate change presents a new dilemma for problems the potential rise in sea level and it becomes researchers and coastal zone managers. Additional imperative to alter policies for sustainable tourism. problems include the use of fertilizers, pesticides and insecticides. The runoff from these chemicals into the Enhanced relative sea-level changes (land subsidence) marine environment poses serious threats. Organotins caused by underground fluid extraction, salinization of used in paints for yachts and other vessels presents a ground waters and deforestation are other basin-wide serious environmental threat to shellfish populations in problems. While several of these environmental coastal areas and may make their way into the food web problems occur to varying degrees in some countries, through zooplankton and finfish posing a threat to man they may not exist in detrimental form in others. In this (Champ and Lowenstein, 1987). review, however, differentiation has not been ventured. Environmental deterioration in developing countries in Plastic debris in the Caribbean has been a recent general however, continues at an ominous rate (Gleick, environmental degradation. Wtlber (1987) has found 1989). Moreover, because of present environmental oceanically-derived plastic to be a common occurrence, stresses, the addition of another - climate change from particularly on the beaches in the Bahamas and the global warming - is an unwelcome prospect. Antilles. Much of the plastic present in the marine environment is likely to be deposited on sandy shores (Wilber, 1987). In addition, floating tar and oil slicks, Climatic Changes Due to Global Warming notably the recent spill into Christiansted Harbor on St. Croix, are fouling the Caribbean coasts and having a Global change is caused by increased atmospheric trace negative impact on tourism. gas loading from carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, tropospheric ozone, chlorofluorocarbons Increasing urbanization and industrialization are (freons), and water vapor, all of which absorb infrared causing an increase in domestic sewage and industrial radiation. Increases in these radiatively active effiuents, resulting in both direct and indirect impacts atmospheric gases are due principally to their W.e in to adjacent marine waters (GESAMP, 1990; Capuzzo et industrial developments such as refrigeration and air­ al., 1985). Because of poor or no sewage treatment conditioning, computer semiconductors and combustion plants, high counts of fecal coliform bacteria are often of fossil fuels (Hall, 1989). Deforestation, however, found on the beaches and adjacent waters, which, of contributes considerably to carbon dioxide buildup course, has a negative impact on tourism. This problem (Myers, 1988), and may even promote climate change is exacerbated by the continued promotion of tourism (Repetto, 1990). The carbon dioxide buildup in the and the construction of expansive hotels behind the atmosphere increased from around 270-290 parts per beaches. The carrying .capacity for a particular area can million volume (ppmv) to about 355 ppmv - about a 20- be exceeded by untreated wastes from these hotels 25% expansion - from the tum of the century to the which creates serious and recurring health problems. mid 1980's (Schneider, 1987). It has increased by more Therein lies the quandary, where the undoing by than nine percent during the last three decades tourism . of the environmental quality that attracted (Rowland, 1988). The importance of these trace gases is visitors and the tourist industry is now an agent in the related to their residence time in the atmosphere; many physical damaging of a location (Murphy, 1986). last for tens of years and their dispersal is global no Therefore, proper planning for these facilities is matter where or what their source (Graedel, 1989). critically important, particularly if development is to be sustainable. Over the past century or so, the average global temperature rose by about O.SSO C, and the average and The majority of Caribbean coastal lowlands and their trend of temperature increase between 1958 and 1988 adjacent coastlines presently experience extensive correlates closely with the growth in atmospheric damage from erosion and inundation during storms. carbon dioxide concentrations (Kuo et al., 1990). If the Most beaches exhibit signs of erosion mainly because of buildup of these trace gases continues, a doubling of the human social and economic activities such as the concentrations of these "greenhouse" gases (relative to construction of jetties, groins and breakwaters that a pre-industrial atmosphere ca.1860) may occur as early interfere with littoral processes. In addition, the as 2030 AD. This increase may produce a global rise of removal of sand from beaches and streams for use as surface air temperature of 1.SO to 4° C (Sestini et a/., aggregate has caused considerable coastal erosion 1989). There is, however, a considerable lag time (Gable and Aubrey, 1990). Because of human activities, (generally 2 to 10 decades) before the warming such as draining and reclamation, many natural coastal appears, because of absorption of some of these gases wetlands, marshes, lagoons and salinas have been into sinks such as the oceans (Cess, 1981; Bullister, permanently altered (adversely impacted). Add to these 1989). Caribbean Coastal and Marine / 252 /

Forecasts of global climate changes arc projected with hurricanes and an inaeased number of tropical storms General Circulation Models (GCM) using have been felt in the region (Lawrence and Gross, 1989; mathematical calculations and relationships. For Case, 1990). tropical regions during the next century, extrapolated inaeases in mean temperatures on the order of 0.3° to 5.0° C are anticipated (Jaeger, 1988); however, the Impacts of Potential Climate Changes on geographical distn"bution, magnitude or timing of the Tourism inaeases remain uncertain. The lack of resolution of climate changes on a regional scale - even for surface One of the fastest growing sectors of international hydrology, precipitation, cloudiness and contemporary trade, especially for small Canbbean countries and warming-precludes policy actions that would favor territories with limited alternative development draconian measures at present. opportunities, is tourism. Tourism in the Caribbean has been growing both in size (Figures 2 and 3) and Associated with the global temperature warming aspect complexity in an attempt to satisfy both the of climate change are the secondary responses, altered sophisticated international travellers and the mass precipitation patterns and inaeases in sea surface marketing of the region (ECI.AC, 1986). temperature - leading to changes in storminess,· longshore winds, cloudiness and changes in relative sea More importantly, the link between environmental levels (Maul, 1989). Aubrey et al., (1988) have quality and tourism is evident, especially in the wider ascertained historical rates of relative sea-level in the Can"bbean, where the environment is the significant Caribbean. Their results indicate that the rates of part of the product. The predominant product for change over the past half century or so vary from an tourism in this region is the attraction of beaches and emergence (sea-level lowering) of 5.3 mm/yr to a the appealing climate (ECI.AC, 1986; Gable and submergence (sea-level rising) of 9.3 mm/yr Aubrey, 1990). Moreover, while "beach tourism" has throughout the Caribbean Basin. The recent global rate predominated in most Caribbean countries since the of sea-level rise, determined from tide gauge stations 1960's, the Caribbean Basin now competes worldwide may exceed 2.0 mm/yr (Peltier and Tushingham, 1989), for these types of tourists, with parts of the though for the past century it is generally believed to be Mediterranean coast, Africa and other exotic locations 1 mm/yr to possibly 2 mm/yr (Wyrtki, 1990). such as the Maldives and Seychelles in the Indian Ocean and the islands of the South Pacific (ECI.AC, Other influences upon the coastal zone from climate 1986). Because of the global tourism market and its change may be erosion, leading to shoreline retreat, important contribution to the Caribbean economy, the tidal range alterations, leading to flooding and saltwater effects of anticipated climate changes on Caribbean intrusion further inland, changes in ocean chemistry coastal zones should not be taken lightly. through ocean pH from atmospheric C02 doubling, and biological effects, leading to changes in species Beach tourism has significant impacts on coastal zones. representation (biodiversity) and productivity in both For example, construction accentuates and accelerates marine and terrestrial ecobiomes (Viles, 1989). erosion by eliminating plant life which anchors sand dunes (ECI.AC, 1986). In addition, coastal engineering Another omen for marine biological resources · - works that once were envisioned as shoreline shellflSb and fmfish especially - is the occurrence of stabilizers, are now known to accelerate erosion ciguatera and red tides, both caused by toxic algae. downdrift as a result of improper planning (Walker, These toxic organisms are known to cause illness and 1984). even death in humans. Apparent inaeases in red tides and toxic algal blooms may be linked to global change Canbbean tourism, with its large dependence on sandy (Anderson, 1989). An inaease in the occurrence of beach front locations, is especially susceptible to the ciguatera or red tide as a possible secondary effect of consequences of a rising sea level - inundation, erosion, climate change in coastal zones could have an economic inaeased flooding and saltwater intrusion into aquifers impact especially through shellfiSh aquaculture and (Blommestein and Singh, 1987). As beaches are the flSberies that are important in providing provisions for prominent attraction for tourists, the loss of sandy tourists (Shumway, 1989). beaches from any cause will diminish carrying capacities and ultimately tourism earnings. Several While inaeased temperatures may have ramifications locations throughout the Caribbean are already for biological organisms, it is the associated effects of experiencing this problem (see Kohsiek et al., 1987; rising sea levels and inaeased storminess that are Cambers, 1988). especially important to tourism activities in the Caribbean. Recently, some unusually powerful 253

1-' r-

12

10 .·.· 1·. 8 .- :~:...... % ·,; .. 6 '""':' I r- Growth ..... ,- ·.:·,(, ,- ...... 4 I .... : I; ..... r- I 2 .·· ... I ·•· 0 n 15· 76- 77· 78· 79· 81· 82· 83· 84- 85· 86- 87· 76 77 78 79 80 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 ·2 ..... 74- 80. -4 75 81

Figure 3: International tourist arrivals in the Can"bbean 1974-1988, annual percentage change. The negative growth depicted is a result in part, of high interest rates on North American currencies and low exchange rates. (Caribbean Tourism Organization, 1989).

a Tmal • Ca_vmanls. 11000 0 Puerto Rico S Antigua & Barbuda 10000 0 U.S. Virgin Is. ~ St. Kills & ~ • St. Maarten • Turks & Caicos Is. ~ · 9500 + BarbadiJs 0 Angui/"' ~ 9000 ~

2000 1800 1600 1400 6001 -a 500

400

300

200 3 ~ ~ • II - 100 •

0 l I I 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

Figure 4: Stayover tourist arrivals in the Caribbean 1984-1988, selected countries. (Caribbean Tourism Organization, 1989) Canobean Coastal and Marine

Caribbean Tourism Visitor Expenditure - 1988

British Comm. Barbados Islands

French British Comm. Barbados W. Indies lsl:lllds

French W. Indies Puerto Rico

!am:llca Gross Receipts: U.S. $7.28 billion !amaic

Figure 1: A snapshot of Caribbean tourism visitor expenditure for 1988 selected countries, percent ofgross receipts and revenue. About 58% of the tourists in 1988 arrived from the U.S., Europe supplied just undo 13%, while residents of Canada constituted 6.5% of arrivals. Intra Caribbean tourists made up a little over 9% of arrivals. Venezuela has been an important market for the southern Netherlands Antilles islands. (Caribbean Tourism Organization, 1989).

Figure 2: International tourist arrivals in the Caribbean 1970-1988. (Caribbean Tourism Organization, 1989). 255

Factors such as habitat destruction, coastal pollution Policy Responses and shoreline alteration when coupled with relative sea­ level rise reinforce beach loss (Blommestein and Singh, While further study (particularly through case 1987). Besides the aforementioned problems with examples) is necessary for analysis of climate changes beach loss, tourism may be impaired by climatic and their direct and indirect effects on Caribbean changes through impacts on hotels and similar facilities, coastal and marine tourism, governments do have some marinas and infrastructure for auiseship dockings, management and policy options to consider. sewage outfalls and waste disposal sites, and the Blommestein and Singh (1987) offer these policy alteration or loss of natural ecosystem attractions such options: as coral reefs (Blommestein and Singh, 1987). • promotion of alternative styles of tourism, thus Socioeconomic impacts at both the local level (micro­ reducing the primary dependence of Caribbean economic) and the national level (macro-economic) will tourism on the beaches; result from man-induced climate change (Maul, 1989). With one of the major economic activities in the wider • restoration of beaches (sand replenishment); Caribbean being tourism (Figure 4), negative impacts upon this sector will have detrimental reverberations • protection and provision of shoreline space for for the prospect of sustainable development and diverse ecobiomes such as mangroves, lagoons, coral economic growth, and perhaps for political stability. reefs, seagrass beds, shrub vegetation; Already this sector provides over two million jobs basin wide and accounts for over half of Gross National • promote changes in insurance legislation whereby Product (GNP) for some of the smaller nations requiring building setback lines to be promulgated (Beekhuis, 1981). and properly placed depending on terrain and marine conditions; The tourism sector accounts for about 33% of GNP (Figure 5) and directly or indirectly for half of • include conceptualized climate change scenarios employment in the Bahamas (UNIDO, 1987). In the (e.g., sea-level rise) in the design of structures and Netherlands Antilles, tourism is the second largest engineering drawings; sector for employment and foreign exchange earner. For Antigua and Barbuda, tourism is directly or • leave high risk areas fallow; indirectly responsible for over 40% of GNP - the highest in the region - and employs greater than 50% of • do nothing. the labor force. This has resulted in the expansion of the construction industry for hotels and other tourism Other ways to address the human and scientific aspects associated conveniences and industries. Tourism in of global environmental change when coupled with Barbados has contributed to GNP by about the same present environmental stress can be considered. The amount that the manufacturing sector has, i.e., roughly adoption of comprehensive coastal zone 10% over the past decade or so (UNIDO, 1987; Figure management/planning schemes is one noteworthy 6). example. A few of these planning texts have been implemented in the wider Caribbean (Gable, 1987; In the British Virgin Islands, the tourist secior depends Sorensen and Brandani, 1987); however, they were primarily on the charter and maintenance of yachts, promulgated because of crises that existed. Planning contributing more than 50% of GNP while providing texts that foresee problems for a given locale and then employment for roughly 30% of the populace. The provide mechanisms for mitigation specifically for those yachting activity has an associated focus of snorkeling distressed areas would be a better approach. Because of around coral reefs - a habitat already adversely the ramifications of potential climate change, impacted from environmental stress. Similarly, other environmental impact asse&sments should be performed Caribbean micro-states rely heavily on tourism and its when site analysis for tourism facilities are being associated infrastructure developments (water planned, modified or modernized. desalination, roads, electricity, airport improvement, waste treatment), as for example the Cayman Islands. Based on knowledge of local response to the direct and Here, hotel capacity has recently increased by 30% indirect changes in climate along with the best available (UNIDO, 1987). In Montserrat, the economy is scientific fmdings on the magnitude and timing of

I i primarily dominated by tourism and related activities in human-altered climatic conditions, appropriate real estate and construction. decisions can be arrived at concerning policy implementation. Though the uncertainties concerning 'I the human-altered global climate change do not ! 256 Can"bbean Coastal and Marine

AGRICULTURE J 'It CONSTRUCTION

.UA.NUFA.CTURING II

SERVICES SI

TOURISM JJ'Io

Figure 5: Bahamas by sector ( 1985), by percentage. (UNIDO, 1987)

S 'It CONSTRUCTION 157M CONSTRUCTION

OTHER J , .. MANUFACTURING !IIANUFACTURING SlUM JO

GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT I 177M IS

TOURISM TOURISM SlUM 10"111

TRADB SZ60M TRADB Z%"111

Figure 6: Barbados gross domestic product (GDP) by sector (1985), by percentage and by revenue. Total GDP, US $1,183.8 million (est.). (UNID0,1987) c;able 257 warrant draconian developmental and environmental (eds.), Elsevier Science Publishing Co., pp. 11- regulations, global climate change demands increased 16. consideration as part of the matrix of both Aubrey, D.G.~ K.O. Emery and E. Uchupi, 1988. environmental and economic issues (Gable and Aubrey, Changing Coastal Levels of South America and 1990). the Caribbean Region From Tide-Gauge Records. Tectonophysics, 154(3/4), 269-284. The application of this thesis also poses similar Bastin, R 1984 Small Island Tourism: Development or consequences to other regions of the world, for Dependency? Development Policy Review, 2(1), example, Pacific archipelagoes. The managing of 79-90. resources for economic development (tourism) in light Beekhuis, J.V., 1981. Tourism in the Caribbean: of looming global climate change needs to be addressed Impacts on the Economic, Social and Natural and ascertained so proper policy responses can be Environments.Ambio, 10(6), 325-331. formulated. It should also be noted that a generic Bird, E.C.F., 1985. Coastline Changes. A Global Review. response to climate change is not likely to succeed in John Wiley and Sons, New York, U.SA., 219 foreseeing local environmental stress that is presently pp. exlubited and the likely effects of climate change for Bird, E.C.F., 1987. The Modem Prevalence of Beach those same areas. Further case work at specific sites Erosion. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 18(4), 151- concerning the linkages between environmental 157. resources used for tourism (beaches; underwater parks) Blommestein, E. and N. Singh, 1987. The Impact of and how they may be affected by likely climatic changes Climatic Changes on Tourism. Paper (increased storminess; turbidity) needs to be conducted. presented at Annual General Meeting of the Awareness of the interdependencies among nations and Caribbean Conservation Association, Tortola, territories of the region in ecological, economic, social British Virgin Islands, Sept. 9-12, 1987, 5 pp. and technological terms, particularly with the likely Bullister, J.L., 1989. Chlorofluorocarbons as Time- advent of man-induced climate alterations, is vitally Dependent Tracers in the Oeean. important. The indirect socioeconomic effects on Oceanography Magazine, 2, 12-17. tourism from pollution, mortality, loss of Bunkley-Williams, L. and E.H. Williams, 1990. Global fiSheries and storm damage already are considered Assault on Coral Reefs. Natural History, Issue important problems for Caribbean officials to deal with; 4/90, 46-54. man-induced climate change will likely become Cambers, G., 1988. Coastal Change and its Link to another. Tourism Development. Caribiana, Intra. Issue, pp.ll-14. Capuzzo, J.M., W.V. Burt, I.W. Duedall, P.K. Park, Acknowledgments D.R. Kester, 1985. The Impact of Waste Disposal in Nearshore Environments. In: Support for this research sponsored by NOAA National Wastes in the Ocean, volume 6, Ketchum, B.H. Sea Grant College Program Office, Department of (editor-in-chief), John Wiley and Sons, NY, pp. Commerce, under Grant No. NA86-AA-D-SG090 to 3-38. the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Caribbean Tourism Organization, 1989. Caribbean Sea Grant Program through Project No. R/S-21-PD. Tourism Statistical Report 1988 Edition. Additional support was provided by the Andrew W. Caribbean Tourism Organization, Christ Mellon Foundation to the Coastal Research Center of Church, Barbados, 164 pp. WHOI. Previous insightful discussions with DA. Case, R., 1990. Hurricanes: Strong Storms out of Simmons and CA. Howell of the Caribbean Africa. Weatherwise, 43(1), 23-29. Conservation Association, St. Michael, Barbados are Cess, R.D. and S.D. Goldenberg, 1981. The Effect of acknowledged. Commentary on earlier versions of the Ocean Heat Capacity upon Global Warming manuscript provided by J.H. Gentile (EPA), A.W. Due to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon White and DA. Ross (WHOI) and S.F. Edwards Dioxide. Journal of Geophysical Research, (NOAA). WHOI Contribution No. 7369. 86(C1), 498-502. Champ, MA. and F.L. Lowenstein, 1987. TBT: The Dilemma of High-Technology Antifouling References Paints. Oceanus, 30(3), 69-77. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Anderson, D.M., 1989. Toxic Algal Blooms and Red Caribbean (ECLAC), 1986. Report of the Tides: A Global Perspective. In: Red 1ides: Wider Caribbean Expert Meeting on Tourism Biology, Environmental Science and Toxicology, and Environment in Caribbean Development, Okaichi, T., Anderson, D.M. and Nemoto, T. Caribbean Coastal and Marine

ECIAC/UNEP Document No. Murphy, P.E., 1986. Tourism as an Agent For LC/CAR/G.ISO, 27 pp. Landscape Conservation: An AssessmenL The Gable, F., 1987. Changing Climate and Caribbean Science of the Total Environment, 55,387-395. Coastlines. Oceanus, 30(4), 53-56. Myers, N., 1988. Tropical Deforestation and Climatic Gable, FJ. and D.G. Aubrey, 1990. Potential Impacts Change. Environmental Conservation, 15( 4), of Contemporary Changing Climate on 293-298. Caribbean Coastlines. Ocean and Shoreline Peltier, W.R. and AM. Tnshingbam, 1989. Global Sea­ Management, 13(1), 35-67. Level Rise and the Greenhouse Effect: Might GESAMP, 1990. The State of the Marine Environment. They be Connected? Science, 244, 806-810. Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Porter, J.W., W.K. Fitt, HJ. Spero, C.S. Rogers and Aspects of Marine Pollution, UNEP Regional M.W. White, 1989. Bleaching in Reef Corals: Seas Reports and Studies No. 115, 111 pp. Physiological and Stable Isotopic Responses. Gleick, P .H., 1989. Climate Change and International Proceedings of the National Academy of Politics: Problems Facing Developing Sciences, USA. 86(23), 9342-9346. Countries.Ambio, 18(6), 333-339. Repetto, R., 1990. Deforestation in the Tropics. Goreau, T J., 1990. Coral Bleaching in Scientific American, 262( 4), 36-42 (scientific correspondence). Nature, 343(6257), Rodriguez, A., 1981. Marine and · Coastal 417. Environmental Stress in the Wider Caribbean Goudie A, 1987. The Human Impact on the Natural . Region. Ambio, 10(6), 283-294. Environment (second ed.). The MIT Press. Rowland, F.S., 1988. Chlorofluorocarbons, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 338 pp. Stratospheric Ozone, and the Antarctic Ozone Graedel. T.E., 1989. Regional and Global Impacts on Hole. Environmental Conservation, 15(2), 101- the Biosphere. Environment, 31(1), 8-13 and 115. 36-41. Schneider, S.H., 1987. Climate Modeling. Scientific Hall. D.O., 1989. Carbon Flows in the Biosphere: American, 256(5), 72-80. Present and Future. Journal of the Geological Sestini, G., L. Jeftic, and J.D. Milliman, 1989. Society, London, 146, 175-181. Implications of Expected Climate Changes in Jaeger, J., 1988. Anticipating Climatic Change: the Mediterranean Region: An Overview. MAP Priorities for Action. Environment, 30(7), 12- Technical Reports Series No. 27, UNEP, 15+30-33. Athens, 52 pp. Karl. T.R., J.D. Tarpley, R.G. Quayle, H.F. Diaz, DA. Shumway, S.E., 1989. Toxic Algae: A Serious Threat to Robinson and R.S. Bradley, 1989. The Recent Shellfish Aquaculture. World Aquaculture, Climate Record: What it Can and Cannot Tell 20( 4), 65-74. Us. Reviews of Geophysics, 27(3), 405-430. Sorensen, J. and A. Brandani, 1987. An Overview of Kerr, RA., 1989. The Global Warming is Real. Science, Coastal Management Efforts in Latin America. 243,603. Coastal Management, 15(1), 1-25. Kohsiek, L.H.M., C.H. Hulsbergen and J .HJ. U.S. Agency for International Development, 1987. Terwindt, 1987. Beach Erosion Along the West Caribbean Marine Resources: Opportunities for Coast of Aruba, Netherlands Antilles. Journal Economic Development and Management. of Coastal Research, 3(1), 37-53. Washington, DC, U.S.· Department of Kuo, C., C. Lindberg and DJ. Thomson, 1990. Commerce, 91 pp. Coherence Established Between Atmospheric United Nations Industrial Development Organization Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperature. (UNIDO), 1987. Industrial Development Nature, 343(6260), 709-714. Review Series. The Caribbean Region, 291 pp. Lawrence, M.B. and J.M. Gross, 1989. Annual Viles, HA., 1989. The Greenhouse Effect, Sea-Level Summaries: Atlantic Hurricane Season of Rise and Coastal Geomorphology. Progress In 1988. Monthly Weather Review, 117(10), 2248- Physical Geography, 13(3), 452-461. 2259. Walker, HJ., 1984. Man's Impact on Shorelines and Maul. GA., 1989. Implications of Climatic Changes in Nearshore Environments: A the Wider Caribbean Region. In: Coping with Geomorphological Perspective. Geoforum, Climate Change - Proceedings of the Second 15(3), 395-417. North American Conference on Preparing for Wilber, R.F., 1987. Plastic in the North Atlantic. Climate Change: A Cooperative Approach, Oceanus, 30(3), 61-68. Topping, J. (ed.), Climate Institute, Wyrtki, K., 1990. Sea Level Rise: The Facts and the Washington, DC, 432-458. Future. Pacific Science, 44(1), 1-16. Citation

Miller, Marc L. and JanAuyong (eds.) 1991.Proceedings of the 1990 Congress on Coastal and Marine Tourism. Volumes I and II. (25-31 May 1990, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA). Newport, OR: National Coastal Resources Research & Development Institute. 561 pp.

Editors' Note

These proceedin~ contain original material of many authors. No material is to be reprinted without prior permission from its author. The papers in these proceedings have been edited for consistency in format and length; minor changes have been made in language, syntax and punctuation. The authors' bibliographic and abbreviation styles, however, have been retained. The opinions of the authors do not necessarily reflect those of the National Coastal Resources Research & Development Institute and other sponsors.

Ubrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Congress on Coastal and Marine Tourism (1990 : Honolulu, Hawaii) Proceedin~ of the 1990 Congress on Coastal and Marine Tourism : a symposium and workshop on balancing conservation and economic development / edited by Marc L. Miller and Jan Auyong ; with the assistance of Sharon L. Rapach and M. Carolyn Stewart. p. em. Includes bibliographical references. 1. Tourist trade--Congresses. 2. Coastal zone management­ -Congresses. I. Miller, Marc L. II. Auyong, Janice. ill. Title. G154.9.C67 1990 338.4791--dc20 91-14758 CIP

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Edited by Marc L Miller and Jan Auyong