POWER COURT, LUTON Retail Capacity & Impact Assessment Prepared by GVA Grimley November 2005 Submitted on behalf of Domaine Development Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Ballymore Properties Ltd POWER COURT, LUTON Retail Capacity and Impact Assessment November 2005 CONTENTS PAGE NO. 1. Introduction 1 2. Policy Considerations 4 3. Sub Regional Context 11 4. Luton Town Centre 14 5. Retail Assessment 24 6. Conclusions 36 PLANS Plan 1: Sub Regional Context Plan 2: Household Survey Area APPENDICES Appendix 1: Summary of Javelin Group / Market Viability/Trading Political Analysis Appendix 2: Summary of CWH&B Views on Letting Prospects Appendix 3: Extracts from Inspector’s Report into Second Draft Plan, March 2005 Appendix 4: Summary of Proposals in Competing Centres Appendix 5: PMRS Pedestrian Flow Counts Appendix 6: Household Survey Results Appendix 7: GVA Capacity Assessment POWER COURT, LUTON Retail Capacity and Impact Assessment November 2005 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 This report has been prepared on behalf of Domaine Developments Limited to address the retail planning issues raised by the current planning application for a mixed use retail/residential development on land at Power Court, Luton. A full description of the scheme and schedule of areas is included in the Supporting Application documentation. This report focuses on the retail components of the scheme. 1.2 The scheme has been developed in close consultation with the Council, having regard to the clearly identified need for additional retail provision in Luton, which is recognised in regional planning guidance and the emerging local plan policies, and specifically identified by the Borough Council’s own retail consultants, White Young Green (WYG). As a consequence, the Power Court site is identified in the emerging plan as being appropriate for, inter alia, significant ‘non- bulky’ retail development. 1.3 The retail component of the Power Court proposals comprises circa 50,000sqm gross of A1/A2/A3/A4/A5 floorspace. It is too early to give a precise indication of the mix of unit sizes and tenants likely to occupy the development. However, Domaine’s primary objective is to secure a commercially viable and attractive mix of retailing which complements and extends Luton’s existing offer. As a consequence, Domaine Developments Limited has commissioned extensive analysis of the current/future market size and characteristics of Luton from the Javelin Group, to determine the optimum scale and mix of additional floorspace required to enable Luton to realise its potential as an important sub-regional centre. A summary of their review is included as Appendix 1. 1.4 Domaine have also taken commercial market based advice from Cushman Wakefield Healey & Baker (CWHB) to ensure that the proposals meet anticipated market demand and complement, rather than compete with the existing offer of the centre. They have summarised their commercial views of the retail components of the proposals in a letter included as Appendix 2. In advance of more extensive marketing it is premature to attempt to define its likely tenant mix, or identify individual retailers which will be included. However, based on the analysis to date, Domaine Developments Limited anticipate the broad composition of the scheme will be: - A department/variety store anchor of circa 10,000sqm gross. A mix of up to 10 major store units of between 1,000 – 3,000sqm gross, including a quality foodstore and range of fashion, sports, books, music and other stores, again focusing on key retailers which we would expect to see in a centre the size of Luton but which are not currently represented as well as a limited number of retailers in currently undersized units which at present are only able to expand by displacing other retailers in the centre. The remainder of the scheme, comprising circa 16,000sqm – 20,000sqm gross is likely to comprise a mix of smaller unit shops, again focusing on a mix of fashion comparison multiples, and as attracting a more diverse and better quality mix of retailing, together with an ancillary range of A2/A3/A4/A5 uses to serve shoppers and local residents and contribute to the overall mix of retail and services available within the town centre. 1 POWER COURT, LUTON Retail Capacity and Impact Assessment November 2005 1.5 This concept has been developed and tested by the Javelin Group, and CWHB, who have provided specialist advice on occupied demand and tenant mix. They have confirmed that there is more than sufficient capacity and potential demand to support this additional scale of retailing in addition to Luton’s current retail offer. 1.6 This report draws on this economic and commercial analysis, but has been underpinned by our own detailed assessment of the retail planning issues raised by the proposals. As a practice, GVA Grimley is one of the leading retail planning advisors, and is currently engaged in preparing the forthcoming ODPM Good Practice Guidance on retail need and impact assessments. We have drawn on this extensive experience in the preparation of this assessment, and have met with the Council to review and agree the detailed scope of the study and key data inputs to be used. 1.7 In parallel, the Council has commissioned its own, independent assessment of retail needs in Luton, based on a brief agreed by our clients and The Prudential, as owners of the Arndale Centre. This follows the same overall approach. However, the assessment is based on a more extensive survey area, covering South Bedfordshire, and uses different population/expenditure data and growth rates. In these circumstances, we have also drawn on the conclusions of the up-to-date WYG analysis. The overall conclusion from this exercise is that both our own and the Council’s independent studies identify more than sufficient comparison floorspace capacity to accommodate the Power Court proposals and any other opportunities likely to come forward within Luton Town Centre over the next ten years. STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT 1.8 In the next section we summarise the key policy provisions of national and regional planning policy guidance and the adopted and emerging development plan. This identifies the relevant retail policy issues which need to be addressed by the study. 1.9 In Section 3 we describe the national and regional context within which the Power Court proposals need to be considered. This highlights wider national trends, and the sustained growth in comparison retail spending, and in particular growth expected in the Luton catchment area. It also highlights the continuing challenges to the centre posed by the ongoing expansion of Luton’s principal competitors, and the real threats to its continued vitality and viability if major new development does not take place. 1.10 In Section 4 we set out the results of our detailed health check of Luton Town Centre, which examines its vitality and viability and also identifies the underlying deficiencies and weaknesses in its provision; in particular the absence of a number of key retailers of the type we would expect to find in a strong sub-regional town centre; the generally low/mid market profile of the offer and failure to serve the needs of the current and future catchment area; and the lack of large, well configured units capable of attracting new retailers or accommodating the changing requirements of existing retailers in the centre. This also draws on the conclusions of the latest WYG study. 1.11 In Section 5 we set out the results of our retail capacity assessment, and the WYG analysis, to consider; the need for the scale of additional retailing proposed; the appropriateness of the scale 2 POWER COURT, LUTON Retail Capacity and Impact Assessment November 2005 of development proposed; whether there are any alternative sites or opportunities in the centre which could be regarded as suitable, viable and available within a reasonable timescale to meet the identified needs; and the impact of the Power Court Scheme on the town centre as a whole and on different parts of the centre. 1.12 Our conclusions are set out in Section 6. 3 POWER COURT, LUTON Retail Capacity and Impact Assessment November 2005 2. POLICY CONSIDERATIONS NATIONAL POLICY CONTEXT 2.1 PPS6 was issued in March 2005 and supersedes the previous guidance contained in PPG6, Town Centre and Retail Development. The central message of the guidance is the need for a more proactive approach to securing new investment in centres, and achieving more sustainable patterns of development. 2.2 The previous guidance (PPG6) had four objectives, with equal weighting attached to promoting/sustaining town centres and promoting a range and choice of retailing and innovation. PPS6 shifts this emphasis, with the focus firmly on promoting and enhancing town centres. The Government’s key objectives for town centres are to promote their vitality and viability by: Planning for the growth and development of existing centres; and Promoting and enhancing existing centres, by focusing development in such centres and encouraging a wide range of services in a good environment, accessible by all. 2.3 The policies in the statement apply to retail uses, and all other key town centre uses, including leisure, entertainment, recreation, office and cultural and tourism. The guidance also makes it clear that other, wider, Government policy objectives remain relevant, including; the promotion of social inclusion; regeneration of deprived areas; promoting economic growth; sustainable patterns of development; transport choices; and high quality and inclusive design. 2.4 The guidance encourages Local Planning Authorities to actively plan for growth and change in town centres over the period of their development plan documents by: Selecting appropriate existing centres to accommodate the identified need for growth by: - Making better use of existing land and buildings, including where appropriate, redevelopment; - Where necessary, extending the centre.