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Center for European Policy Analysis March 6, 2013 Issue Brief No. 126: Russia’s Winding Path of Modernization By Jaroslav Kurfürst ne year into Vladimir Putin’s third it clear that this was a scenario they had long presidential term, the Russian public planned. The announcements merely confirmed Oarena has undergone a notable what everyone had been suspecting for years, transformation. Among others, numerous but it was the way in which the message was legislative measures restricting civil liberties were delivered that made part of Russian society adopted and the number of trials centering on feel that everything had been decided and that defendants’ political beliefs and civic engagement the swapping of the government posts was a increased significantly. The restrictions also foregone conclusion. The fact that their vote was targeted foreign entities supporting the Russian taken for granted ahead of the parliamentary non-government sector. In fact, the 2013 Human and presidential elections mobilized social Rights Watch World Report concluded that forces, which had previously mainly rallied the country went through the worst political against corruption and around environmental crackdown in its post-Soviet history.1 And this issues. The last straw was the conduct and trend is set to continue. results of the parliamentary elections held on December 4th, 2011. According to the In 2012, Russia went through the final report published by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s worst political crackdown in its post- (OSCE) international observation mission, Soviet history. the elections had been manipulated in favor of the ruling United Russia party.2 Immediately after the elections, with a The September 2011 United Russia party section of Russian society convinced that they conference can be singled out as a defining had been rigged and should have turned out moment for the course the country has taken. It differently, the first major protests took place. was there that then-President Dmitry Medvedev It was a spontaneous public reaction driven announced that he would not be running in the by a feeling of inability to influence public 2012 presidential election and that he would affairs. The protestors coordinated their actions back the candidacy of former president and through social networks and were initially then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Vladimir themselves surprised by the sheer scale of the Putin immediately reacted by promising that, if demonstrations. Protests occurred regularly until elected, he would appoint Dmitry Medvedev to the presidential election in March 2012 and, as the post of prime minister. Both politicians made 2 OSCE/ODIHR Election observation mission, Final report: 1 Human Rights Watch, World Report 2013. Available here: Elections to the State Duma, Russian Federation, January 12, http://bit.ly/XSJP77. 2012. Available here: http://bit.ly/14t5lPM. Jaroslav Kurfürst is Director General of the Europe Section at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic. 1 Center for European Policy Analysis that vote too was claimed to be rigged, they did Vladimir Putin took over responsibility for the not break off afterward either.3 As soon as he war in Chechnya even prior to his election, began his third term of office, President Putin and then proceeded to address the erosion of launched an offensive against protesters, the non- central state institutions’ authority, paving the parliamentary political opposition, as well as civic way for the centralization of political power in and political activism. He also took a series of his first presidential term of office. In 2004, he restrictive steps to counter initiatives supporting cancelled the governor elections and made the Russian civil society from abroad, mainly from posts president-appointed instead.4 Putin also the United States and Europe. Yet, measures pursued an offensive policy of strengthening the to centralize and consolidate power through state’s influence over the media. Under threat of increasingly firmer control of the public space criminalization, two of the most prominent media were nothing new and had in fact been imposed moguls — Boris Berezovsky and Vladimir Gusinsky throughout Vladimir Putin’s two previous terms at — abandoned Russia, leaving the mainstream the Kremlin. media to gradually pass into the hands of the state or state-owned companies. Consolidation and Its Ever-expanding Interpretation (2000–2008) The next step was to stifle the influence wielded over the political sphere by Russia’s economic When Vladimir Putin became president for the oligarchy. The most high-profile case was the first time in 2000, he entered the Kremlin with 2003 arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky — head of a clear aim of consolidating power in Russia. the oil company Yukos — and the subsequent The country, at the time, had been worn down nine-year prison sentence he was handed in by reforms and weakened by the banking crisis 2005. This case served as a warning to other of 1998, the erosion of central institutions, politically engaged oligarchs and ushered in a and the illness and flagging energy of the most new kind of relationship between the majority of powerful figure in its highly centralized political the most influential figures of Russian business system — then-President Boris Yeltsin. Russia and the Kremlin — effectively a symbiosis. felt humiliated by the North Atlantic Treaty Further, in 2006 the government passed a law Organization’s (NATO) enlargement and the that complicated the operation and registration action the Alliance had taken against the regime of non-governmental organizations, and thus of Slobodan Milosevic, carried out despite its bolstered the state’s influence over that sector as opposition. The Kremlin also felt threatened by well. the rise of Islamism and separatism in the North Caucasus. So at that point, the call for greater Modernization as a Program (2008–2012) consolidation of the country was backed by a broad public consensus and Vladimir Putin set out Dmitry Medvedev — supported by Vladimir Putin to implement the wishes of the Russian society. — won the 2008 presidential election with 70.3 percent of the votes. In the same year, Russia’s 3 OSCE/ODIHR Election observation mission, Final report: 4 However, a law restoring the governor elections entered into Presidential Elections, Russian Federation. May 11, 2012. force in May 2012. As of January 2013, the Duma is working to Available here: http://bit.ly/W5aLQH. weaken the law again, increasing the influence of the Kremlin in the process. 2 Center for European Policy Analysis 1993 Constitution was amended for the first time, From Elections to Demonstrations extending the presidential mandate to six years, to come into effect as of the 2012 presidential The December 2011 parliamentary elections election. Initially, President Medvedev’s four-year and the March 2012 presidential election were term gave some hope to the more liberal-minded accompanied by mass demonstrations in an parts of Russian society. When he took the helm, unprecedented show of public protest, especially the country had benefitted from an eight-year among the emerging middle class. Demonstrators Growth Domestic Product (GDP) spurt of around demanded an annulment of the rigged elections, seven percent, and the middle class was gradually an investigation of cases of manipulation, as well emerging.5 President Medvedev quickly declared as greater freedom and a stronger participatory that the modernization of Russia was a top democracy in Russia. The sheer scale of the priority and even announced a “Partnership for protests notwithstanding, what they lacked was Modernization” with several European countries. political leaders with a clear agenda. A number of figures emerged at the forefront of the demonstrations, but Measures to centralize and consolidate they had different motivations, power through increasingly firmer control and represented very diverse of the public space were nothing new. political and civic programs. These included Alexey Navalny’s nationalist anti-corruption Taking stock of his presidency, however, these activists, individual personalities like the writer hopes of modernization did not really materialize. Boris Akunin, the ultra-left political forces of Medvedev began his presidency with military Eduard Limonov or Sergei Udaltsov, and liberals action against Georgia in August 2008, and the in the vein of former Prime Ministers Boris subsequent occupation of Abkhazia and South Nemtsov and Mikhail Kasyanov. The only unifying Ossetia. And then, in 2009, the global financial principle among the leaders speaking at the crisis swept across Russia. The country’s economy demonstrations was their negative view of the was able to withstand the storm relatively ruling tandem. It was enough to bring people well, on account of massive state intervention out in the streets of Russian cities, especially with existing guarantee funds and huge foreign given the frustration with the elections. However, currency reserves accrued in previous years.6 it was far too little to offer the wider public a Nevertheless, the crisis did take its toll on the sustainable alternative vision and the hope for remainder of Medvedev’s presidential term and credible leadership. even though steady economic growth of over three percent was restored as early as 2010, From Demonstrations to Restrictive Laws his time in office is perceived as a period of The demonstrations in Russia took place against stagnation.