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World Economic Situation and Prospects

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World Economic Situation and Prospects World Economic Situation and Prospects UnitedUnited Nations Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 asdf United Nations New York, 2013 Acknowledgements e report is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Aairs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the ve United Nations regional commis- sions (Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacic (ESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)). For the preparation of the global outlook, inputs were received from the national centres of Project LINK and from the participants at the annual LINK meeting held in New York from 22 to 24 October 2012. e cooperation and support received through Project LINK are gratefully acknowledged. e United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) contributed to the section on international tourism. e report has been prepared by a team coordinated by Rob Vos and comprising sta from all collaborating agencies, including Grigor Agabekian, Abdallah Al Dardari, Clive Altshuler, Shuvojit Banerjee, Sudip Ranjan Basu, Hassiba Benamara, Alfredo Calcagno, Jeronim Capaldo, Jaromir Cekota, Ann D’Lima, Cameron Daneshvar, Adam Elhiraika, Pilar Fajarnes, Heiner Flassbeck, Juan Alberto Fuentes, Marco Fugazza, Masataka Fujita, Samuel Gayi, Andrea Goldstein, Cordelia Gow, Aynul Hasan, Jan Homann, Pingfan Hong, Michel Julian, Alex Izurieta, Felipe Jimenez, Cornelia Kaldewei, Matthias Kempf, John Kester, Pierre Kohler, Nagesh Kumar, Michael Kunz, Alexandra Laurent, Hung-Yi Li, Muhammad Hussain Malik, Sandra Manuelito, Joerg Mayer, Nicolas Maystre, Elvis Mtonga, Alessandro Nicita, Victor Ognivtsev, Oliver Paddison, José Palacin, Mariangela Parra-Lancourt, Ingo Pitterle, Daniel Platz, Li Qiang, Kazi Rahman, Benu Schneider, Krishnan Sharma, Robert Shelburne, Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, Samiti Siv, Shari Spiegel, Astrit Sulstarova, Amos Taporaie, Alex Trepelkov, Aimable Uwizeye-Mapendano, Sebastian Vergara, John Winkel, Yasuhisa Yamamoto, Frida Youssef and Yan Zhang. Katherine McHenry provided administrative assistance. Shamshad Akhtar, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development at UN/DESA, provided com- ments and guidance. For further information, see http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/index.shtml, or contact: DESA: Mr. Wu Hongbo, Under-Secretary-General, Department of Economic and Social Aairs; Room S-2922, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA; telephone: +1-212-9635958; email: [email protected] UNCTAD: Dr. Supachai Panitchpakdi, Secretary-General, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development; Room E-9042, Palais de Nations, 1211, Geneva 10, Switzerland; telephone +41-22-9175806; email: [email protected] ECA: Dr. Carlos Lopes, Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa; P.O. Box 3005, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; telephone: +251-11-5511231; email: [email protected] ECE: Mr. Sven Alkalaj, Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe; Palais des Nations, CH-1211, Geneva 10, Switzerland; telephone: +41-22-9174444; email: [email protected] ECLAC: Ms. Alicia Bárcena, Executive Secretary, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean; Av. Dag Hammarskjöld 3477, Vitacura, Santiago, Chile; telephone: +56-2-2102000; email: [email protected] ESCAP: Ms. Noeleen Heyzer, Executive Secretary, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacic, United Nations Building, Rajadamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, ailand; telephone: +66-2-2881234; email: unescap@unescap. org ESCWA: Ms. Rima Khalaf, Executive Secretary, Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, P.O. Box 11-8575, Riad el-Solh Square, Beirut, Lebanon; telephone: +961-1-978800; email at: http://www.escwa.un.org/main/contact.asp Copyright @ United Nations, 2013 All rights reserved iii Executive Summary Prospects for global economic growth and sustainable development The world economy is on the brink of another major downturn As foreseen in last year’s issue of this report, the world economy weakened considerably in 2012. A growing number of developed economies, especially in Europe, have already fallen into a double-dip recession, while those facing sovereign debt distress moved even deeper into recession. Many developed economies are caught in downward spiralling dynamics from high unemployment, weak aggregate demand compounded by scal austerity, high public debt burdens, and nancial fragility. e economic woes of the developed countries are spilling over to develop- ing countries and economies in transition through weaker demand for their exports and heightened volatility in capital ows and commodity prices. e larger developing econo- mies also face home-grown problems, however, with some (including China) facing much weakened investment demand because of nancing constraints in some sectors of the economy and excess production capacity elsewhere. Most low-income countries have held up relatively well so far, but are now also facing intensied adverse spillover eects from the slowdown in both developed and major middle-income countries. e prospects for the next two years continue to be challenging, fraught with major uncertainties and risks slanted towards the downside. Growth of world gross product (WGP) is expected to reach 2.2 per cent in 2012 and is forecast to remain well below potential at 2.4 per cent in 2013 and 3.2 per cent in 2014 (gure O.1). At this moderate pace, many economies will be unable to recover the severe job losses of the Great Recession. Figure 0.1 Weakening and highly uncertain outlook for the world economy Percentage change 5 Policy scenario 4.1 4.1 4.5 4 4.0 3.8 Baseline 3 2.7 3.2 2.4 2 2.2 1.4 1 1.1 Downside scenario 0.2 0 Source: UN/DESA. a Growth rate for 2012 is -1 partially estimated. Estimates for 2013 and 2014 are forecasts. See “Uncertainties -2 -2.1 and risks” section for a discussion of the downside -3 scenario and box I.3 for a discussion of the policy 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 scenario. iv World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 The global jobs crisis continues Global unemployment remains very high, particularly among developed economies, with the situation in Europe being the most challenging. e unemployment rate continued to climb, reaching a record high of nearly 12 per cent in the euro area during 2012, an increase of more than one percentage point from one year ago. Conditions are worse in Greece and Spain where more than a quarter of the working population is without a job. Only a few economies in the region, such as Austria, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, register low unemployment rates of about 5 per cent. Unemployment rates in Central and Eastern Europe edged up slightly in 2012, partly resulting from scal austerity. Japan’s unemployment rate retreated to below 5 per cent. In the United States, the unemployment rate stayed above 8 per cent for the most part of 2012, but dropped to just below that level from September onwards. At the same time, long-term unemployment (over one year) in developed econo- mies stood at more than 35 per cent by July 2012, aecting about 17 million workers. Such a prolonged duration of unemployment tends to have signicant, long-lasting detrimental impacts on both the individuals who have lost their jobs and on the economy as a whole. In the outlook, greater and more sustainable job creation should be a key policy priority in developed economies. If economic growth stays as anaemic in developed countries as projected in the baseline forecast, employment rates will not return to pre- crisis levels until far beyond 2016 (gure O.2). Figure 0.2 Jobs crisis continues in Europe and the United States and recovery will be protracted Percentage change 1 Source: UN/DESA, based on 0 data from ILO and IMF. -1 Note: The chart shows percentage changes of total -2 employment (as a moving average) with respect to pre- -3 recession peaks. Projections -4 (dashed lines) are based Euro area (16) on estimates of the output -5 Advanced economies (21) elasticity of employment (Okun’s law), following a -6 similar methodology to that of ILO, World of Work Report 2011 (Geneva). 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 e employment situation varies signicantly across developing countries. Unemployment rates in most economies in East Asia and Latin America have already retreated to, or dropped below, levels seen prior to the global nancial crisis. e growth moderation in late 2011 and 2012 has so far not led to a discernable rise in the unem- ployment rate in these two regions—a positive sign, with the caveat that a rise in the unemployment rate would usually lag in an economic downturn. If the growth slowdown continues, the unemployment rate could increase signicantly. In Africa, despite relatively strong GDP growth, the employment situation remains a major problem across the region, Executive Summary v both in terms of the level of employment and the quality of jobs that are generated. e latter remains a common challenge for developing countries. e shares of working poor remain high and most workers tend to be employed in vulnerable jobs in still expanding informal sectors. Furthermore, youth unemployment and gender disparities in employ- ment remain key social and economic concerns in many developing countries. Poverty reduction and progress towards other MDGs may slow e global slowdown and increased risks to the employment situation in developing coun- tries will imply a much slower pace of poverty reduction and a narrowing of scal space for investments in education, health, basic sanitation and other critical areas needed for accelerating the progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). is holds true in particular for the least developed countries (LDCs); they remain highly vulnerable to commodity price shocks and are receiving less external nancing as ocial development assistance (ODA) declines in the face of greater scal austerity in donor countries.
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