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Spatial Dynamics of Warehousing and Distribution in California

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Spatial Dynamics of Warehousing and Distribution in California Spatial Dynamics of Warehousing and Distribution in California METRANS UTC 15-27 January 2017 Genevieve Giuliano Sanggyun Kang Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA Spatial Dynamics of Warehousing and Distribution in California Disclaimer The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the accuracy of the data and information presented herein. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program, the California Department of Transportation and the METRANS Transportation Center in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government, the California Department of Transportation, and the University of Southern California assume no liability for the contents or use thereof. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the State of California, USC, or the U.S. Department of Transportation. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. Giuliano and Kang Page 2 Spatial Dynamics of Warehousing and Distribution in California Abstract The purpose of this research is to document and analyze the location patterns of warehousing and distribution activity in California. The growth of California’s warehousing and distribution (W&D) activities and their spatial patterns is affected by several factors, including population and economic growth, shifting supply chains and distribution practices, scale economies in warehousing, and the state’s role in international and domestic trade. The location of W&D activities has implications for freight demand and flows, and thus is a critical element in statewide transportation planning. This research is conducted in two parts. First, we conduct a descriptive analysis of W&D trends from 2003 – 2013 using Zip Code Business Pattern data. We find that: 1) the W&D industry in California has grown much faster than the transport sector or the economy as a whole; 2) W&D activity is distributed approximately with the population and total employment; the four largest metro areas in California account for about 88% of all jobs as well as of all W&D jobs; 3) at the metropolitan level the relative shares of W&D activity have been stable over the period; 4) there is some evidence of W&D activity moving away from the major metro areas to nearby smaller metro areas; 5) at the sub-metropolitan level we observe significant decentralization of W&D employment for the largest metro areas, suggesting that larger facilities are locating further from the center. The second part of the research examines possible explanatory factors associated with W&D location trends. We estimate both cross sectional and longitudinal models of location. We find that: 1) the negative binomial specification explains the distribution of W&Ds better than the simple binomial; 2) the correlation between employment density and W&D activity decreased significantly over the decade, whereas the effect of labor force access is consistently significant; 3) W&Ds are more likely to be located in proximity to intermodal terminals and highways and farther from seaports; 4) the signs and significance of regional market attributes – the share of linked industry at the regional level – are consistent across model specifications but vary across the model years and metro areas; 5) the first-order autoregressive model documents that the effect of regional market attributes decreased significantly over the time period. This suggests the responses of the W&D industry to changing market conditions take place quickly. However, the overall pattern of W&D activity appears to be stable. Giuliano and Kang Page 3 Spatial Dynamics of Warehousing and Distribution in California Table of Contents Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Disclosure ................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Acknowledgement................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................ 9 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................. 15 1.1 Literature review ............................................................................................................................................... 16 1.2 Results from a previous study of four metro areas in California ................................................... 17 Part I Trends in W&D in California 2003-2013.................................................................................................. 19 2.1 Research Framework........................................................................................................................................ 19 2.2 Study Area Delineation .................................................................................................................................... 19 2.3 Data .......................................................................................................................................................................... 23 2.4 General Trends at the State Level ................................................................................................................ 23 2.5 Trends at the Four Metropolitan Levels ................................................................................................... 25 2.5.1 Distribution and Change ........................................................................................................................ 25 2.5.2 Concentration of the Warehousing Sector by Location Quotient ......................................... 27 2.6 Trends at the Sub-Metropolitan Level ....................................................................................................... 29 2.6.1 Gain and Loss at the County-level ...................................................................................................... 29 2.6.2 Gain and Loss at the ZIP Code-level .................................................................................................. 29 2.6.3 Changes in W&D Distribution with respect to the Urban Center ......................................... 35 2.7 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................... 36 Part II Understanding Trends ..................................................................................................................................... 37 3.1 Research Framework........................................................................................................................................ 37 3.2 Modeling approach ............................................................................................................................................ 38 3.2.1 Cross Section Models .............................................................................................................................. 38 3.2.2 Time series model .................................................................................................................................... 40 3.3 Data .......................................................................................................................................................................... 40 3.3.1 Dependent Variable – binary likelihoods and counts of W&Ds ............................................ 40 3.3.2 Explanatory Variables ............................................................................................................................ 41 3.4 Results..................................................................................................................................................................... 47 3.4.1 Model 1: Binary logit .............................................................................................................................. 47 3.4.2 Model 2: Negative Binomial ................................................................................................................ 49 3.4.3 Models 3 and 4: first-order autoregressive models ........................................................................... 51 3.5 Summary of Results........................................................................................................................................... 55 Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................................................. 57 Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................................................
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