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Baseline Projections of the Growth of California's Urban Footprint Through Working Paper 2003-04 How We Will Grow: Baseline Projections of the Growth of California’s Urban Footprint through the Year 2100 John D. Landis and Michael Reilly Department of City and Regional Planning Support provided by the California Resource Agency and the California Energy Commission Institute of Urban and Regional Development University of California, Berkeley 2 Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................7 2.0 APPROACH .......................................................................................9 2.1 Growth Model Calibration.........................................................9 2.2 Patterns of Job Growth.............................................................19 2.3 Forecasting Procedures............................................................22 2.4 Population Projections—Huge Growth Ahead........................23 2.5 Infill Shares and Growth Densities—Both Will Increase........29 2.6 Updating the Inputs..................................................................32 2.7 Key Assumptions and Caveats.................................................33 3.0 THE BASELINE SCENARIO .........................................................36 3.1 Building the Baseline Scenario................................................36 3.2 Baseline Scenario Results........................................................37 4.0 BASELINE IMPACT ASSESSMENT.............................................62 4.1 Landscape Conversion.............................................................62 4.2 Farmland Conversion...............................................................66 4.3 Habitat Loss.............................................................................76 4.4 Farmland Fragmentation..........................................................81 4.5 Summary..................................................................................88 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND CAVEATS .................................................91 5.1 Summary of Findings...............................................................91 5.2 Next Steps................................................................................93 NOTES.......................................................................................................95 APPENDICES ...........................................................................................97 3 List of Figures Figure 1: Urban Growth Forecasting Process .........................................10 Figure 2: Logistic Regression Model of 1988–98 Site-level Land Use Changes in Southern California, the Bay Area, the Sacramento Region, and the Southern San Joaquin Valley.....15 Figure 3: Calculation of Spatial Shiftshare Components by Job Ring and Region: 1990–2000 ...........................................................21 Figure 4: Population Projections by County, Sub-Region, and Region: 2000–2020, 2020–2050, 2050–2100........................................25 Figure 5: Projected Population Growth Among Metropolitan California Counties, 2000–2100 ..............................................28 Figure 6: Comparison of 1972 Urbanization Levels and 1972–1996 Development Densities for Selected California Counties .......31 Figure 7: Comparison of 1972 Urbanization Shares and 1980–1998 Infill Shares for Selected California Counties .........................31 Figure 8: Regression Results Comparing County 1972 Urban Land Shares with 1972–1996 Development Densities and 1980–1998 Infill Rates.............................................................31 Figure 9: Summary of Urban Land Conversion Projections by County, Sub-Region, and Region: 1998–2020, 2020–2050, 2050–2100................................................................................39 Figure 10: Anticipated Losses in Steeply Sloped Land Area Due to Projected Urbanization, for Selected Counties, 1998–2100 ....63 Figure 11: Anticipated Losses in Wetlands Due to Projected Urbanization, for Selected Counties, 1998–2100 ....................65 Figure 12: Anticipated Losses in 100m Riparian Zone Land Area Due to Projected Urbanization, for Selected Counties, 1998–2100 ....67 Figure 13: Anticipated Losses in Prime Farmland Due to Projected Urbanization, for Selected Counties, 1998–2100 ....................69 Figure 14: Anticipated Losses in State- and Locally-Important Farmland Due to Projected Urbanization, for Selected Counties, 1998–2100 ...............................................................71 Figure 15: Anticipated Losses in Unique Farmlands Due to Projected Urbanization, for Selected Counties, 1998–2100 ....................73 4 Figure 16: Loss in Grazing Land Area Due to Projected Urbanization, for Selected Counties, 1998–2100 ...........................................75 Figure 17: Loss in Good Quality Multi-species Habitat Land Area Due to Projected Urbanization, for Selected Counties, 1998–2100................................................................................78 Figure 18: Loss in Outstanding Multi-species Habitat Land Area Due to Projected Urbanization, for Selected Counties, 1998–2100................................................................................80 Figure 19: Loss in Irreplaceable Multi-species Habitat Land Area Due to Projected Urbanization, for Selected Counties, 1998–2100................................................................................82 Figure 20: Farmland Area and Patch Fragmentation, by Region and Farmland Type: 1998–2050, 1998–2100.................................84 Figure 21: Summary of Projected Urban Growth Threats to Environmental Landscapes, by Region, 1998–2100................89 List of Maps Map 1: Projected Development Probabilities for San Diego ...............18 Map 2: California’s Urban Footprint, 1998..........................................40 Map 3: California’s Urban Footprint, 2020F .......................................41 Map 4: California’s Urban Footprint, 2050F .......................................42 Map 5: California’s Urban Footprint, 2100F .......................................43 Map 6: Southern California: San Diego, Orange and Imperial Counties ...................................................................................44 Map 7: Southern California: Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties......................................................................46 Map 8: Southern California: The Inland Empire..................................48 Map 9: The Southern San Joaquin Valley: Kern, Kings, Fresno, Madera and Tulare Counties....................................................50 Map 10: The Northern San Joaquin Valley: Kern, Kings, Fresno, Madera and Tulare Counties....................................................52 Map 11: Northern California: The Monterey Bay Area and San Luis Obispo County .........................................................................53 Map 12: Northern California: The Central San Francisco Bay Area.....55 5 Map 13: Northern California: The North Bay Area...............................57 Map 14: The Sacramento Region: Sacramento County, Foothill Sub- Region, Yolo County, Sutter County, Yuba County ...............59 List of Appendices APPENDIX A Calculation of Spatial Shiftshare Components by Job Center, Ring, and Region: 1990–2020F ...............................................99 APPENDIX B-1 Projected Population Growth and Growth Rates, by County, 2000–2040..............................................................................110 APPENDIX B-2 Projected Population Growth, by County, 2000–2100 ..........111 APPENDIX C-1 Baseline and Projected Urban Land Shares, Incremental Densities, and Infill Share, by County, 1972–2100...............112 APPENDIX C-2 Projected Greenfield Population and Urban Acreage by County, 1997–2100................................................................113 APPENDIX D Threatened and Endangered Species Act (TESA) Scores by 100m Grid Cell (Terrestrial Vertebrates Only)......................114 6 How We Will Grow: Baseline Projections of the Growth of California’s Urban Footprint through the Year 2100 John D. Landis and Michael Reilly 1.0 INTRODUCTION By 2020, most forecasters agree, California will be home to between 43 and 46 million residents—up from 35 million today. Beyond 2020, the size of California’s population is less certain. Depending on the composition of the population, and future fertility and migration rates, California’s 2050 population could be as little as 50 million or as much as 70 million. One hundred years from now, if present trends continue, California could conceivably have as many as 90 million residents. Where these future residents will live and work is unclear. For most of the 20th century, two-thirds of Californians have lived south of the Tehachapi Mountains and west of the San Jacinto Mountains—in that part of the state commonly referred to as Southern California. Yet most of coastal Southern California is already highly urbanized, and there is relatively little vacant land available for new development. More recently, slow-growth policies in Northern California and declining developable land supplies in Southern California are squeezing ever more of the state’s population growth into the San Joaquin Valley. How future Californians will occupy the landscape is also unclear. Over the last fifty years, the state’s population has grown increasingly urban. Today, nearly 95 percent of Californians live in metropolitan areas, mostly at densities less
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