NICARAGUA Sistema De Información Para El Food Security Situation Seguimiento De La Seguridad Alimentaria Y Nutricional May 2006
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Prepared in conjunction with SISSAN NICARAGUA Sistema de Información para el Food Security Situation Seguimiento de la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional May 2006 Alert Levels No Alert Watch Warning Emergency Summary and implications CONTENTS Summary and implications ....................... 1 The beginning of the agricultural cycle is one of the most important activities in the Seasonal calendar ..................................... 1 country in terms of food security. Agriculture provides 21 percent of Nicaragua's gross Current hazards......................................... 1 domestic product, guarantees employment for 38 percent of the economically active Rainy season............................................. 1 population (equivalent to 2 million people) according to the most recent census of the Agricultural production ............................ 2 Nicaraguan Institute of Statistics and Census, and provides more than 40 percent of Prices ........................................................ 3 national exports. The timely beginning of rains is the main factor enabling agricultural Health situation......................................... 3 activities to develop according to expectations, and access to productive means such as seeds and fertilizers is also important. Seasonal calendar Current hazards • High costs of seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, which limit subsistence farmers’ access to these inputs. • Increase in fuel prices, which have generated increases in the prices of transportation, food and other products. • Increase in morbidity due to diarrheic and respiratory diseases that are most prevalent during the beginning of the rainy period. Rainy season Forecasts by the Nicaraguan Institute of Land Studies (INETER) indicate that the rainy period will be established throughout the country in the third dekad of May. An irregular distribution of rains is foreseen in the country, due to variations in both the beginning of the rainy period and the expected precipitation volumes (see Map 1). According to the Hydrological Balance Index (see Map 2), rains began in most of the country during the first and second dekads of May (areas in blue). This means that the majority of regions should be in the initial or planting phase. The yellow areas correspond to zones where rains have not started yet. According to preliminary reports submitted by the departmental delegations of MAGFOR, the planting phase has started in the municipalities of San Pedro del Norte, San Francisco del Norte, Santo Tomas del Norte, and Cinco Pinos in the northern Chinandega department; in the municipality of Rancho Grande in Matagalpa department; and in the municipality of Cuá Boca in the department of Jinotega. MFEWS is financed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) www.mfews.net NICARAGUA: FOOD SECURITY SITUATION May 2006 Map 1: Medium-range precipitation expected in Nicaragua, May 2006 Map 2: Beginning of rains for the first agricultural cycle, second dekad, May 2006 Source: INETER Source: MFEWS/USGS Agricultural production The most recent data of the agricultural cycle 2005/06, Figure 1: Staple cereals yield national average per manzana, from which concluded in April 2006, shows an increase of 11.4 1999-2000 to 2006-2007 agricultural cycles. percent in the total production, in relation to the last cycle, as 1.4 million manzanas (1 manzana = 0.7 ha) were sowed. 40 Staple cereals, such as maize and beans, show an increase 35 in their volume of production and small increases in yield 30 per manzana sowed with maize and rice, as shown in z 25 Figure 1, mostly due to the productive area and the use of 20 qq/m improved seeds. 15 10 According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 5 (MAGFOR) projections, more than 200,000 producers will 0 grow crops in 1.4 million manzanas (980,000 ha), of 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 which 77.8 percent is for national consumption, as shown in Table 1, similar to the 2005/06 agricultural cycle, but Arroz Oro Frijol rojo Maíz blanco these projections may be too large based on the favorable climatic forecasts. Source: Directorate of Statistics, MAGFOR Table 1: Areas to cultivate Internal Consumption Products Some 150,000 small producers will receive a 50 percent subsidy for Product Manzanas certified staple cereal seeds from the MAGFOR “Pound per Pound” Maize 550,000 Program, with which they are expected to plant approximately Beans 380,000 220,000 manzanas (154,000 ha) for internal consumption, equivalent to 20 percent of the cultivation area. This program is intended to Rice 127,000 improve productivity and increase the planting area. Sorghum million 32,000 Total 1,089,000 According to MAGFOR data, the use of certified seeds yields 24 quintales per manzana of hybrid maize, compared to 22 obtained in the 2005/06 agriculture cycle from conventional seeds; 12.5 quintales of beans instead of 11 quintales from conventional seeds; and an increase in yield from 24.5 to 25.5 quintales of rice. This allows better use of national resources, and minimizes the expansion of the agricultural land. However, these seeds require fertilizers, and without fertilizer production of these yields is limited. The ministry is offering technical assistance in this area. In relation to the previous cycle, a 32 percent increase of maize production is expected, (8,000,000 quintales are equivalent to 425,000 MT), 16 percent in the bean production (829,000 quintales are equivalent to 41,400 MT), 7 percent in the secano (non-irrigated) rice production (1,912,000 quintales are equivalent to 95,600 MT) and a 11.2 percent increase in the production of sorghum (436,000 quintales are equivalent to 21,800 MT). 2 NICARAGUA: FOOD SECURITY SITUATION May 2006 During the primera harvest of August to October there will not be a Figure 2: Production in the primera agricultural cycle maize or bean deficit relative to the population’s historical consumption, nor to the to the basic food basket. However, in this s period there will be a 153,000 quintales (7,600 MT) deficit of 8100 internally produced rice for August and September, which will 6100 be covered with imports and donations in the amount of 390,000 quintales (19,500 MT). 4100 2100 Given the expected production levels, considerable increases in miles de quintale 100 basic food prices are not foreseen; if prices do increase, it will Maiz Frijol Arroz Sorgo millon be due to other external factors such as climate changes or 2004/05 4846 612 1598 303 increases in fuel prices or transportation costs. 2005/06 7936 783 1818 384 2006/07 8500 829 1912 436 Prices As of February, the cost of the basic food basket increased by Source: Directorate of Statistics, MAGFOR 1.21 percent from January, and the Consumer Price Index reached a 2.67 percent increase in relation to January, which means that the general price increase is greater than the food Figure 3: Consumer fuel prices price increase. 70 The fuel crisis is considered to be the main cause for this increase, as it continues rising, showing a 30.5 percent increase 65 from April 2005 to 2006, which is reflected in the continuous 60 price increase of general products and transportation. 55 50 Health situation C$/galon 45 40 Diarrheic, respiratory diseases, dengue and malaria caused by 35 the initiation of the rainy season are increasing over previous 30 J Mar May-05 Ju S Nov Ja Mar-06 years, according to the Ministry of Health (MINSA). MINSA is a e n-05 l-0 p- n - - -0 preparing actions such as providing health units with supplies, 05 5 05 05 6 domestic deparasitation, abatization and fumigation, together with a massive education campaign. Prevention of these Gasolina regular Diesel diseases will contribute to improved food utilization. Source: Nicaraguan Energy Institute 3.