Wind vs Water

Mark Powe, NOAA-HRD Steve Morey, Dmitry Dukhovskoy, and Steve Cocke: FSU COAPS

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division

NOAA’s Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories (AOML) Virginia Key, Miami FL (about 20 miles east of the National Hurricane Center)

Resources: 30 scientists and support staff from NOAA and University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, regional lab with oceanographic expertise

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wind vs Water

Motivation

Hurricane Dennis 2005

Hurricane Ike 2008

Conclusions

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wind vs Water: Motivation

Relevance to Insurance

Wind covered by homeowners or special windstorm insurance

Water covered by National Flood Insurance Program

Most homes have wind storm insurance but not all have flood insurance

Those without flood may claim that wind came first

Those who need flood question the need for wind e.g. Key West

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wind vs Water

Scientific Interests:

Understanding storm surge and wave behavior in complex coastal systems: e.g. varying shelf slope, coastline orientation

Physical processes associated with wind, surge, and wave impacts: surface stress, bottom friction, wave-wind-current interactions, trapped shelf waves

Risk modeling: a comprehensive approach towards a combined wind/wave/surge risk assessment

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes

Isaac Cline, 1900 Galveston Hurricane: Landfall ~ 9 pm on the 8th A heavy swell from the southeast made its appearance in the Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon of the 7th. The swell continued during the night without diminishing, and the tide rose to an unusual height when it is considered that the wind was from the north and northwest. I drove to the Gulf, where I timed the swells, and then proceeded to the office and found that the barometer was only one-tenth of an inch lower than it was at the 8 p.m. observation of the 7th. I then filed the following telegram addressed to the Central Office Washington: Unusually heavy swells from the southeast, intervals of one to five minutes, overflowing low places south portion of city three to four blocks from beach. Such high water with opposing winds never observed previously.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 The transference of water with the long waves and swells causes rises in the water along the coast, which increases as the storm approaches. The rise in the water on the coast in front of the line of advance of the cyclonic area, beginning 12 to 24 hours after the hurricane enters the Gulf

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wind vs Water: Hurricane Dennis 2005

Hit near Pensacola as a very small storm similar in size to Hurricane Charley of 2004

Unexpected flooding along Apalachee Bay far (180 miles) from landfall

Winds were relatively weak (< 35 kts) but lots of flooding damage

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Morey, S.L., S. Baig, M.A. Bourassa, D.S. Dukhovskoy, and J.J.O'Brien, Remote forcing contribution to storm-induced sea level rise during Hurricane Dennis Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L19603, 2006.

Coastal-trapped shelf wave

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Sea Level Response to a Storm

Wind surge (can be 10-20 ft) Wave runup (can be > 15 ft) Astronomical tide (< 3 ft in the Gulf) Wave setup (up to 5-6 ft) Large-scale shelf waves

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Northwest Florida Hurricane Tracks 1972-2007

Apalachee Bay

Clark, R.R, J. LaGrone, 2006. Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Hurricane Dennis

CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison via NOAA / NCEP / TPC

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Hurricane Dennis Wind Field

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Underpredicted Flooding

“The surge was higher that currently known wind reports would support for that area, and roughly 3.5 feet higher than the surge forecast from the SLOSH model.” J. Barnes, Florida’s hurricane history, 2007

Angelo’s (Ockloknee River)

Final Report on Hurricane Season Impacts to Northwest Florida, FDEP, 2006

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 St. Marks during Hurricane Dennis, July 2005

U.S. Post Office flooded in St. Marks, Tallahassee Democrat

Phil Sears/Tallahassee Democrat via Reuters, published in New York Times, July 2005

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Shelf Wave on the West FL Shelf

The shelf wave resulted in ~1 m of additional sea level rise in the bay contributing to the total 3 m rise in the water level

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 High-resolution Modeling

 Study localized variability and amplification of the storm surge in Apalachee Bay

 Look at the previously unexplained flooding of St. Marks (~10 km upriver)

 Verify the model results with observations

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Apalachee Bay Modeling System

Gulf of Mexico Domain Apalachee Bay Domain

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Complex Model Grid Max edge 9 km Min edge 57 m

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Complex Model Grid Max edge 9 km Min edge 57 m

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Maximum Storm Surge Simulated in Apalachee Bay

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Maximum Storm Surge Simulated in Apalachee Bay

High-Water Marks (HWM) Map from FEMA Report (2005)

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Timing of Maximum Surge and Astronomical Tides

Tides

Landfall 19:30

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wind vs Water: Hurricane Ike

Wind: H*Wind post storm analysis

Water: USGS Water level gage data

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 NOAA H*Wind

Air Force and NOAA Polar Orbiting Aircraft QSCAT, TM/I, and SSM/I satellites data

Geostationary (GOES) satellite data Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer GPS dropwindsondes Database (SFMR)

Automated Surface Coastal Marine Automated Observing Network (CMAN) NOAA Buoys Ship reports System (ASOS)

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 USGS Water

USGS Water level from recording pressure gages at 59 sites

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Swath 2230 UTC 11 Sep - 1630 UTC 13 Sep 2008 Maximum 1-minute sustained winds (knots) at 10 meters for open terrain and marine exposure. Wind swath created using 15 H*Wind snapshot analyses at a 6 km resolution

Ike Wind Swath and Surge Destructive Potential (SDP) ratings

Saffir-Simpson 1300 13 Sep, 2.8 Houston New Cat 2 Orleans

0730 13 Sep, 4.1 SDP 4.1 at landfall 0430 13 Sep, 4.1 0000 13 Sep, 4.6

2000 12 Sep, 4.8 Peak winds ~ 90 kts 1200 12 Sep 5.1 (104 mph) 0600 12 Sep5.1

0300 12 Sep 4.6

Research Product of NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 GAL015 West End Galveston Island

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 TX-GAL-015 29.086111°N, 95.117222°W

10 9

8 7

6

NAVD88 5 4

above 3 ft 2

1 0

9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/08 2:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 9/12/08 8:00 9/12/08 10:009/12/08 12:009/12/08 14:009/12/08 16:009/12/08 18:009/12/08 20:00 9/13/0822:00 9/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:00 9/13/08 8:00 9/13/08 10:009/13/08 12:009/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT W end of Galveston Island 1st Water Peak 1500 CDT (2000 UTC) ~ 7 ft (waves) with 5 ft surge 11 h before landfall Shelf wave likely wind offshore ~ 25 kts

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 TX-GAL-015 29.086111°N, 95.117222°W

10 9

8 7

6

NAVD88 5 4

above 3 ft 2

1 0

9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/08 2:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 9/12/08 8:00 9/12/08 10:009/12/08 12:009/12/08 14:009/12/08 16:009/12/08 18:009/12/08 20:00 9/13/0822:00 9/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:00 9/13/08 8:00 9/13/08 10:009/13/08 12:009/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT

W end of Galveston Island 2nd peak 2330 CDT (0430 UTC) ~ 7.5 ft (waves) with 6 ft surge 2.5 h before landfall in NW eyewall wind offshore ~ 70 kts

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 TX-GAL-015 29.086111°N, 95.117222°W

10 9

8 7

6

NAVD88 5 4

above 3 ft 2

1 0

9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/08 2:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 9/12/08 8:00 9/12/08 10:009/12/08 12:009/12/08 14:009/12/08 16:009/12/08 18:009/12/08 20:00 9/13/0822:00 9/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:00 9/13/08 8:00 9/13/08 10:009/13/08 12:009/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT W end of Galveston Island 3rd peak 0200 CDT (0700 UTC) ~ 7.5 ft (waves) with 6 ft surge at landfall SW eyewall Winds offshore ~80 kts

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Cameron 010, LA

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 SSS-LA-CAM-010 29.786111°N, 93.115000°W

16

14

12

10

NAVD88 8

6 above

ft 4

2

0

9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/082:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 8:00 9/13/089/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:00 8:00 9/12/089/12/08 10:009/12/08 12:009/12/08 14:009/12/08 16:009/12/08 18:009/12/08 20:00 22:00 9/13/089/13/08 10:009/13/08 12:009/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT

8 ft Peak at 0010 CDT (0510 UTC) about 2h before landfall winds peaked at 44 kts at landfall but 6 ft rise at 1000 CDT on 12th 21 h before landfall

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Cameron 003, LA

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 SSS-LA-CAM-003 29.804167°N, 93.348889°W

16

14

12

10

NAVD88 8

6 above

ft 4

2

0

9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/08 2:00 9/12/084:00 9/12/08 6:009/12/08 8:009/12/08 10:009/12/08 12:009/12/08 14:009/12/08 16:009/12/08 18:009/12/08 20:00 9/13/0822:00 9/13/08 0:00 9/13/082:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:009/13/08 8:009/13/08 10:009/13/08 12:009/13/08 14:009/13/08 16:00 18:00 CDT Peak Surge at 0230 CDT (0730 UTC) Peak wind 0700 UTC (44 kts) both at ~time of landfall

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Bolivar Peninsula, TX GAL005

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 TX-GAL-005 29.451389°N, 94.634167°W

16

14

12

10

NAVD88 8

6 above

ft 4 25 kts 2 offshore 0

9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/082:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 9/12/08 8:00 9/12/08 10:009/12/08 12:009/12/08 14:009/12/08 16:009/12/08 18:009/12/08 20:00 9/13/0822:00 9/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/084:00 9/13/08 6:009/13/08 8:009/13/08 10:009/13/08 12:009/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT

1st water peak 5 ft. 3pm day before landfall wind offshore at 25 kts 2nd water peak 14 ft near landfall at 0230 CDT (0730 UTC) but peak wind (64 kts from S at about 2h after landfall 0430 CDT (0930 UTC)

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 HAR003 (near Ellington AFB)

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 TX-HAR-003 29.591944°N, 95.128333°W

16

14

12

10

NAVD88 8

6 above

ft 4

2

0

9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/08 2:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 9/12/08 8:00 9/12/08 10:009/12/08 12:009/12/08 14:009/12/08 16:009/12/08 18:009/12/08 20:00 9/13/0822:00 9/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:00 9/13/08 8:00 9/13/08 10:009/13/08 12:009/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT 1st Peak 10 ft at 0330 CDT (0830 UTC) wind inside eye 32 kts from NW about 2.5 h before peak wind at 0600 CDT (1100 UTC)

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 TX-HAR-003 29.591944°N, 95.128333°W

16

14

12

10

NAVD88 8

6 above

ft 4

2

0

9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/08 2:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 9/12/08 8:00 9/12/08 10:009/12/08 12:009/12/08 14:009/12/08 16:009/12/08 18:009/12/08 20:00 9/13/0822:00 9/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:00 9/13/08 8:00 9/13/08 10:009/13/08 12:009/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT

2nd Peak 12 ft 0800 CDT (1300 UTC) SW Wind 47 kts about 2 h after peak wind at 0600 CDT (1100 UTC)

Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Conclusions:Wind vs Water

High water levels can arrive well before landfall via wave setup and coast-trapped shelf waves

Peak water levels can come before, at, or after landfall

Peak water levels at a particular site can occur before, at, or after the peak wind at that site

Multiple peaks of wind and water can occur at the same site

Timing of peaks may not necessarily coincide with damage

Wednesday, July 22, 2009