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NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC-6 the DEADLIEST

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NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC-6 the DEADLIEST NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC-6 THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE UNITED STATES TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM 1851 TO 2010 (AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS) Eric S. Blake Christopher W. Landsea NHC Miami Ethan J. Gibney I.M. Systems Group NCDC Asheville National Weather Service National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida August 2011 PREFACE This version of the Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones extends the work of Blake et al. (2007) to include 2007-2010 and revised hurricane best track data from the period 1915-1930. In addition, estimates from several storms are updated to correct errors as well as to include a more standardized methodology. In most storms since 1995, estimates of flood damage from the National Flood Insurance Program are included in the total damage estimates for a more realistic total. The technical memorandum also continues the methodology of Pielke et al. (2008) to produce an estimate of the monetary loss that historical hurricanes could exact on the current property-at-risk in the same location. THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE UNITED STATES TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM 1851 TO 2010 (AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS) by Eric S. Blake and Christopher W. Landsea NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida Ethan J. Gibney I.M. Systems Group NOAA/NCDC Asheville, North Carolina ABSTRACT This technical memorandum lists the deadliest tropical cyclones in the United States during 1851- 2010 and the costliest tropical cyclones in the United States during 1900-2010. The compilation ranks damage, as expressed by monetary losses, in three ways: 1) contemporaneous estimates; 2) contemporaneous estimates adjusted by inflation to 2010 dollars; and 3) contemporaneous estimates adjusted for inflation and the growth of population and personal wealth (Pielke et al. 2008) to 2010 dollars. In addition, the most intense (i.e., major1 ) hurricanes to make landfall in the United States during the 160-year period are listed. Also presented are some additional statistics on United States hurricanes and tropical cyclones in general. 1. INTRODUCTION The National Hurricane Center (NHC) receives numerous requests for statistical information on deaths and damage incurred during tropical cyclones (including tropical depression, tropical storms, subtropical storms and hurricanes) affecting the United States. Information about tropical cyclone intensity (i.e., maximum 1-min surface wind) is also frequently of interest. Estimates of these measures vary in the literature and our goal is to present the best compilation of currently available estimates. In some instances, data in our lists represent revised estimates based on more complete information received since earlier publications including previous versions of this technical memorandum. There are also other frequently asked questions about hurricanes, and these questions are answered in Section 3. _____________________________________ 1 A major hurricane is a category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (see Table 1). 1 Table 1. The Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, modifed from Simpson (1974). Winds Scale Number Maximum 1-min (Category) (mph) 1 74-95 2 96-110 3 111-130 4 131-155 5 > 155 2 2. BACKGROUND AND DEFINITIONS The Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS, Table 1) provides specific wind values for each hurricane category. It is important to note that the original Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale category assignment of U.S. hurricanes was based on a combination of wind, central pressure and storm surge values (Hebert and Taylor 1975). Since about 1990, however, the NHC has assigned the SSHWS category on the basis of the maximum one-minute sustained wind speed only. Thus, there is an inconsistency in the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT) that will be rectified as the Atlantic best-track reanalysis project is completed (Landsea et al. 2004). Currently, the SSHWS category assignment is based on wind speed from 1851-1930 and 1990-2010 and on a combination of wind, pressure and storm surge from 1931-1989. Heavy rainfall associated with a hurricane was not one of the criteria used in the categorization. The process of assigning a SSHWS category number to a hurricane in any location is subjective, and it is made on a county-by-county basis. In this study, we use criteria for direct hit as described in the work by Jarrell et al. (1992). Direct Hit - Using "R" as the radius of maximum winds in a hurricane (the distance in miles from the storm's center to the circle of maximum winds around the center), all or parts of coastal counties falling within approximately 2R to the right and R to the left of a storm's track were considered to have received a direct hit. (This assumes an observer at sea looking toward the shore. If there was no landfall, the closest point of approach was used in place of the landfall point). On average, this direct hit zone extended about 50 miles along the coastline (corresponding to an average value of R of 15 miles). Of course, some hurricanes were smaller than this and some, particularly at higher latitudes, were much larger. Cases were judged individually, and many borderline situations had to be resolved. In this document, the term strike is designated to mean one of two things: 1) During the years 1851-1930 and 1990 to 2010, a hurricane strike is defined to be the occurrence of sustained hurricane force winds on the coastline or inland. This does not require the center to make landfall in the area of hurricane-force winds. Such an event occurred with Hurricane Ophelia in 2005, which remained offshore of the North Carolina coast but still brought sustained hurricane-force winds to the coastline. 2) During the years 1931 to 1989, a hurricane strike is defined as one whose center passes within the direct hit definition area provided above. The best-track reanalysis project is working to change the definition to be strictly determined by the winds, but for now the regional effects catalogued by HURDAT are in a transition period that could last several more years. Statistics on tropical storm and hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) can also be found in McAdie et al. (2009). A stratification of hurricanes by SSHWS category which have affected coastal counties of the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean can be found in Jarrell et al. (1992) and also at the NOAA Coastal Services Center (http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/) updated through 2010. Additional information about the 3 impact of hurricanes can be found in annual hurricane season summary articles in Monthly Weather Review, Storm Data and Mariner’s Weather Log. A continuing feature for this update is the inclusion of estimated inland wind impacts of some hurricanes. These cyclones are indicated with an “I” before the state abbreviation in the HURDAT database and this symbol is exclusively used for hurricane wind impacts that are felt in a state, but not at the coastal areas (see Appendix A). One example of this occurrence is Hurricane Dennis (2005). After landfall, Dennis produced category one hurricane winds over inland areas of Alabama, but these effects were not felt along the coast of Alabama. Thus an “I” is added in front of the state designation, to be IAL 1. If a hurricane primarily impacts the coastal areas of a state, inland effects are not listed separately. The goal of this listing is to indicate only the most significant impact to that state. Because of the geography of Florida, any effects in the state are considered coastal. It is important to note the changing derivation of damage estimates at NHC. Death and damage totals for the period 1915-1965 were taken from Gentry (1966), which gave figures adjusted to 1957-59 costs as a base for the period 1915-1965. From 1966-1994, damages were obtained from Monthly Weather Review. However, the Monthly Weather Review estimates represented a highly variable and subjective combination of losses from the American Red Cross, the U.S. Office of Emergency Preparedness, insurance companies and press reports. After 1994, except for a few cases involving significant flooding, most of the Monthly Weather Review damage estimates were determined by doubling the private insurance losses reported by the Property Claim Service or the American Insurance Institute. These insurance loss figures do not include flood losses from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which have only been included since Hurricane Ike of 2008. A standardized methodology for calculating total losses, including NFIP figures, has been developed and utilized for each storm that made landfall after 1994 in the mainland United States. In this document, for almost all storms that occurred beginning in the 1995 season, the final NHC damage estimate is the sum of double the insured loss estimate, plus an adjusted estimate of flood losses from NFIP. Because of the highly variable rates of flood insurance along the coast, it is improper to simply double the flood losses for an estimate of total flood damage. Instead, the county NFIP losses are multiplied by the estimated county penetration rates for the highest flood risk area using the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) special flood hazard area (SFHA, e.g. the 100-year base flood plain) for a more accurate measure. This estimate should still be conservative for total flood damages because most homeowner’s policies are capped at $250,000 and areas outside of the SFHA can be affecting in a significant flood. Note that this calculation adds a significant amount of damage to previous estimates after 1994 (e.g. Allison 2001 rises from $5 billion to $9 billion). See Appendix B for other significant changes to several U.S.
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