Wind vs Water Mark Powe!, NOAA-HRD Steve Morey, Dmitry Dukhovskoy, and Steve Cocke: FSU COAPS Wednesday, July 22, 2009 NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division NOAA’s Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories (AOML) Virginia Key, Miami FL (about 20 miles east of the National Hurricane Center) Resources: 30 scientists and support staff from NOAA and University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, regional lab with oceanographic expertise Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wind vs Water Motivation Hurricane Dennis 2005 Hurricane Ike 2008 Conclusions Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wind vs Water: Motivation Relevance to Insurance Wind covered by homeowners or special windstorm insurance Water covered by National Flood Insurance Program Most homes have wind storm insurance but not all have flood insurance Those without flood may claim that wind came first Those who need flood question the need for wind e.g. Key West Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wind vs Water Scientific Interests: Understanding storm surge and wave behavior in complex coastal systems: e.g. varying shelf slope, coastline orientation Physical processes associated with wind, surge, and wave impacts: surface stress, bottom friction, wave-wind-current interactions, trapped shelf waves Risk modeling: a comprehensive approach towards a combined wind/wave/surge risk assessment Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes Isaac Cline, 1900 Galveston Hurricane: Landfall ~ 9 pm on the 8th A heavy swell from the southeast made its appearance in the Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon of the 7th. The swell continued during the night without diminishing, and the tide rose to an unusual height when it is considered that the wind was from the north and northwest. I drove to the Gulf, where I timed the swells, and then proceeded to the office and found that the barometer was only one-tenth of an inch lower than it was at the 8 p.m. observation of the 7th. I then filed the following telegram addressed to the Central Office Washington: Unusually heavy swells from the southeast, intervals of one to five minutes, overflowing low places south portion of city three to four blocks from beach. Such high water with opposing winds never observed previously. Wednesday, July 22, 2009 The transference of water with the long waves and swells causes rises in the water along the coast, which increases as the storm approaches. The rise in the water on the coast in front of the line of advance of the cyclonic area, beginning 12 to 24 hours after the hurricane enters the Gulf Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wind vs Water: Hurricane Dennis 2005 Hit near Pensacola as a very small storm similar in size to Hurricane Charley of 2004 Unexpected flooding along Apalachee Bay far (180 miles) from landfall Winds were relatively weak (< 35 kts) but lots of flooding damage Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Morey, S.L., S. Baig, M.A. Bourassa, D.S. Dukhovskoy, and J.J.O'Brien, Remote forcing contribution to storm-induced sea level rise during Hurricane Dennis Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L19603, 2006. Coastal-trapped shelf wave Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Sea Level Response to a Storm Wind surge (can be 10-20 ft) Wave runup (can be > 15 ft) Astronomical tide (< 3 ft in the Gulf) Wave setup (up to 5-6 ft) Large-scale shelf waves Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Northwest Florida Hurricane Tracks 1972-2007 Apalachee Bay Clark, R.R, J. LaGrone, 2006. Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Hurricane Dennis CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison via NOAA / NCEP / TPC Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Hurricane Dennis Wind Field Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Underpredicted Flooding “The surge was higher that currently known wind reports would support for that area, and roughly 3.5 feet higher than the surge forecast from the SLOSH model.” J. Barnes, Florida’s hurricane history, 2007 Angelo’s (Ockloknee River) Final Report on Hurricane Season Impacts to Northwest Florida, FDEP, 2006 Wednesday, July 22, 2009 St. Marks during Hurricane Dennis, July 2005 U.S. Post Office flooded in St. Marks, Tallahassee Democrat Phil Sears/Tallahassee Democrat via Reuters, published in New York Times, July 2005 Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Shelf Wave on the West FL Shelf The shelf wave resulted in ~1 m of additional sea level rise in the bay contributing to the total 3 m rise in the water level Wednesday, July 22, 2009 High-resolution Modeling Study localized variability and amplification of the storm surge in Apalachee Bay Look at the previously unexplained flooding of St. Marks (~10 km upriver) Verify the model results with observations Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Apalachee Bay Modeling System Gulf of Mexico Domain Apalachee Bay Domain Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Complex Model Grid Max edge 9 km Min edge 57 m Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Complex Model Grid Max edge 9 km Min edge 57 m Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Maximum Storm Surge Simulated in Apalachee Bay Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Maximum Storm Surge Simulated in Apalachee Bay High-Water Marks (HWM) Map from FEMA Report (2005) Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Timing of Maximum Surge and Astronomical Tides Tides Landfall 19:30 Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Wind vs Water: Hurricane Ike Wind: H*Wind post storm analysis Water: USGS Water level gage data Wednesday, July 22, 2009 NOAA H*Wind Air Force and NOAA Polar Orbiting Aircraft QSCAT, TM/I, and SSM/I satellites data Geostationary (GOES) satellite data Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer GPS dropwindsondes Database (SFMR) Automated Surface Coastal Marine Automated Observing Network (CMAN) NOAA Buoys Ship reports System (ASOS) Wednesday, July 22, 2009 USGS Water USGS Water level from recording pressure gages at 59 sites Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Hurricane Ike Surface Wind Swath 2230 UTC 11 Sep - 1630 UTC 13 Sep 2008 Maximum 1-minute sustained winds (knots) at 10 meters for open terrain and marine exposure. Wind swath created using 15 H*Wind snapshot analyses at a 6 km resolution Ike Wind Swath and Surge Destructive Potential (SDP) ratings Saffir-Simpson 1300 13 Sep, 2.8 Houston New Cat 2 Orleans 0730 13 Sep, 4.1 SDP 4.1 at landfall 0430 13 Sep, 4.1 0000 13 Sep, 4.6 2000 12 Sep, 4.8 Peak winds ~ 90 kts 1200 12 Sep 5.1 (104 mph) 0600 12 Sep5.1 0300 12 Sep 4.6 Research Product of NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division Wednesday, July 22, 2009 GAL015 West End Galveston Island Wednesday, July 22, 2009 TX-GAL-015 29.086111°N, 95.117222°W 10 9 8 7 6 NAVD88 5 4 above 3 ft 2 1 0 9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/08 2:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 9/12/08 8:00 9/12/08 10:00 9/12/08 12:00 9/12/08 14:00 9/12/0816:00 9/12/08 18:00 9/12/08 20:00 22:009/13/089/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:00 9/13/08 8:00 9/13/08 10:00 9/13/08 12:00 9/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT W end of Galveston Island 1st Water Peak 1500 CDT (2000 UTC) ~ 7 ft (waves) with 5 ft surge 11 h before landfall Shelf wave likely wind offshore ~ 25 kts Wednesday, July 22, 2009 TX-GAL-015 29.086111°N, 95.117222°W 10 9 8 7 6 NAVD88 5 4 above 3 ft 2 1 0 9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/08 2:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 9/12/08 8:00 9/12/08 10:00 9/12/08 12:00 9/12/08 14:00 9/12/0816:00 9/12/08 18:00 9/12/08 20:00 22:009/13/089/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:00 9/13/08 8:00 9/13/08 10:00 9/13/08 12:00 9/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT W end of Galveston Island 2nd peak 2330 CDT (0430 UTC) ~ 7.5 ft (waves) with 6 ft surge 2.5 h before landfall in NW eyewall wind offshore ~ 70 kts Wednesday, July 22, 2009 TX-GAL-015 29.086111°N, 95.117222°W 10 9 8 7 6 NAVD88 5 4 above 3 ft 2 1 0 9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/08 2:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 9/12/08 8:00 9/12/08 10:00 9/12/08 12:00 9/12/08 14:00 9/12/0816:00 9/12/08 18:00 9/12/08 20:00 22:009/13/089/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:00 9/13/08 8:00 9/13/08 10:00 9/13/08 12:00 9/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT W end of Galveston Island 3rd peak 0200 CDT (0700 UTC) ~ 7.5 ft (waves) with 6 ft surge at landfall SW eyewall Winds offshore ~80 kts Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Cameron 010, LA Wednesday, July 22, 2009 SSS-LA-CAM-010 29.786111°N, 93.115000°W 16 14 12 10 NAVD88 8 6 above ft 4 2 0 9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/082:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 8:00 9/13/089/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:00 8:00 9/12/08 9/12/0810:00 9/12/08 12:00 9/12/08 14:00 9/12/08 16:00 9/12/08 18:00 9/12/08 20:00 22:00 9/13/089/13/08 10:00 9/13/08 12:00 9/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT 8 ft Peak at 0010 CDT (0510 UTC) about 2h before landfall winds peaked at 44 kts at landfall but 6 ft rise at 1000 CDT on 12th 21 h before landfall Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Cameron 003, LA Wednesday, July 22, 2009 SSS-LA-CAM-003 29.804167°N, 93.348889°W 16 14 12 10 NAVD88 8 6 above ft 4 2 0 9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/08 2:00 9/12/084:00 9/12/08 6:009/12/08 8:009/12/08 10:00 9/12/08 12:00 9/12/0814:00 9/12/08 16:00 9/12/08 18:00 9/12/08 20:00 22:009/13/089/13/08 0:00 9/13/082:00 9/13/08 4:00 9/13/08 6:009/13/08 8:009/13/08 10:00 9/13/0812:00 9/13/08 14:00 9/13/08 16:00 18:00 CDT Peak Surge at 0230 CDT (0730 UTC) Peak wind 0700 UTC (44 kts) both at ~time of landfall Wednesday, July 22, 2009 Bolivar Peninsula, TX GAL005 Wednesday, July 22, 2009 TX-GAL-005 29.451389°N, 94.634167°W 16 14 12 10 NAVD88 8 6 above ft 4 25 kts 2 offshore 0 9/12/089/12/08 0:00 9/12/082:00 9/12/08 4:00 9/12/08 6:00 9/12/08 8:00 9/12/08 10:00 9/12/08 12:00 9/12/08 14:00 9/12/08 16:00 9/12/08 18:00 9/12/08 20:00 22:009/13/089/13/08 0:00 9/13/08 2:00 9/13/084:00 9/13/08 6:009/13/08 8:009/13/08 10:00 9/13/0812:00 9/13/08 14:00 16:00 CDT 1st water peak 5 ft.