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Philadelphia House Price Indices

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Philadelphia House Price Indices PHILADELPHIA HOUSE PRICE INDICES April 28, 2015 KEVIN C. GILLEN, Ph.D. [email protected] Disclaimers and Acknowledgments: The Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation at Drexel University provides this report free of charge to the public. The report is produced by Lindy Senior Research Fellow Kevin Gillen, in association with Meyers Research LLC. The author thanks Azavea.com, the Philadelphia Office of Property Assessment, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC, RealtyTrac, Zillow.com, Trulia.com and the NAHB for making their data publicly available. © 2015, Drexel University, All Rights Reserved. © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] House Price Indices 1980-2015: 1980Q1=100 Philadelphia County v. Philadelphia MSA and U.S. Average 600.0 550.0 Phila. County* Phila. MSA** 500.0 U.S. Avg.** 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 Q1 100.0 * Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D. **Courtesy of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). HPIs are available through 2014Q4 only. © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] “MSA”=Metropolitan Statistical Area, which is the entire 9-county region. Total House Price Appreciation Rates by Geographic Market Philadelphia Philadelphia Period U.S.A.** County* MSA** 36-Year 137.8% 169.1% 127.6% 10-Year 4.5% 19.3% 8.4% 1-Year 4.1% 2.0% 4.8% 1-Quarter -0.3% -1.0% 1.3% *Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen Ph.D. **Source: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). These numbers are through 2014Q4 only. “MSA”=“Metropolitan Statistical Area”, which is the entire 10-county region. © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] House Price Appreciation 1987-2015: Philadelphia v. 10-City Composite 390 10-City Composite* 340 Philadelphia 290 240 % Change 10-City Philadelphia 1998 to Peak: +173% +136% From Peak: -17% -15% 190 140 90 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *Source: S&P/Case-Shiller. The 10-City Composite index includes Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington, DC. It does not include Philadelphia. © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] Philadelphia House Price Indices by Neighborhood: 1980-2015 1980Q1=100 800.0 CtrCity/Fairmount 700.0 Kensington/Frankford Lower NE Phila. North Phila. 600.0 NW Phila. South Phila. Univ. City 500.0 Upper NE Phila. West Phila. 400.0 300.0 200.0 Q1 100.0 * All indices empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D. © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] Philadelphia House Price Appreciation Rates by Neighborhood Center Lower Upper City/ Kensington NE North NW South Univ. NE West Period Fairmount /Frankford Phila. Phila. Phila. Phila. City Phila. Phila. 36-year 162.0% 150.3% 125.3% 150.9% 163.8% 193.7% 186.1% 161.9% 157.7% 10-year 7.8% 15.5% -1.3% 19.2% 0.3% 44.0% 13.6% 9.0% 31.5% 1-Year -1.8% 0.0% 1.4% 0.6% -3.6% 6.3% 10.2% 1.1% 8.9% 1-Quarter -1.4% -1.7% -0.8% -4.1% -2.6% 1.0% 6.9% 0.5% 0.4% This table gives the total % change in house prices by neighborhood, through 2015 Q1, from different starting points in time. © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] Philadelphia Submarket Boundaries © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected]| UniversityDrexel 2015 * Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD Gillen,C. Kevin by estimated * Empirically Median Philadelphia House Price v. Indexed Philadelphia House Price 1980-2015 $140,000 $120,000 Median Price $100,000 Indexed Price* $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Q1 $0 1991 2014 2015 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected]| UniversityDrexel 2015 Average House Price Minus Median House Price: 1980-2015 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 1983 1988 2012 1980 1981 1982 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 Number of Philadelphia House Sales* per Quarter: 1980-2015 8,000 Q1 . 7,000 Q2 Q3 6,000 Q4 these numbers 5,000 Qtly. Average 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1981 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 length transactions between private sector entities were included in betweenentitieswere sector included private length transactions - 2015 Drexel University | [email protected]| UniversityDrexel 2015 *Only arms *Only © Number of Philadelphia Home Sales* per Quarter with Price>=$1 Million: 1997-2015 30 Q1 25 Q2 Q3 20 Q4 15 10 Qtly. Average 5 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *Only arms-length transactions between private sector entities were included in these numbers. © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] Philadelphia House Sales in 2015 Q1 © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] Center City House Sales in 2015 Q1 © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] South Philadelphia House Sales in 2015 Q1 © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] Kensington/Frankford House Sales in 2015 Q1 © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] West Philadelphia House Sales in 2015 Q1 © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] North Philadelphia House Sales in 2015 Q1 © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] Northwest Philadelphia House Sales in 2015 Q1 © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] Northeast Philadelphia House Sales in 2015 Q1 © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] 2015 Q1 House Price Rate of Change by Neighborhood Upper NE Phila: +0.5% North Phila: -4.1% NW Phila: -2.6% Univ. City: +6.9% Lower NE Phila: -0.8% Kensington/Frankford: -1.7% West Phila: +0.4% Center City/Fairmount: -1.4% South Phila: +1.0% Note: Each neighborhood is extruded by its average change in house values during 2015 Q1 in order to reflect its growth (or depreciation) rate relative to other neighborhoods. © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] +$1 Million Dollar House Sales in 2015 Q1 Price Price/SqFt Address $1,075,000 $347 1424 BAINBRIDGE ST $1,120,000 $465 322 S QUINCE ST $1,159,500 $403 216 GASKILL ST $1,199,000 $361 614 S HANCOCK ST $1,200,000 $1,000 2405 PINE ST $1,360,000 $282 744 S 10TH ST $1,435,000 $297 1710 PINE ST $1,685,000 $487 415 PINE ST $1,695,000 $646 248 S 03RD ST $1,705,000 $410 225 GASKILL ST $1,727,000 $432 400 SPRUCE ST $1,925,000 $527 2502 DELANCEY PL © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected]| UniversityDrexel 2015 Philadelphia House Price Diffusion Index 500.0 200% Philadelphia HPI 450.0 Diffusion Index 150% 400.0 100% 350.0 50% 300.0 250.0 0% HPI: 1980Q1=100 HPI: 200.0 -50% 150.0 -100% The diffusion index measures how varied the direction of house price changes are across Philadelphia 100.0 neighborhoods. It is computed as the percent difference between the number of neighborhoods in which prices rose in a given quarter, and the number of neighborhoods in which prices fell. A value of -100% indicates that prices fell in all neighborhoods in a given quarter, while a value of +100% indicates that -150% 50.0 prices rose in all neighborhoods. A value of 0% indicates that house price changes were evenly split between increases and decreases, across neighborhoods. Diffusion indexes are commonly used in financial economics as a leading indicator of turning points in a market's direction. 0.0 -200% 1988 2001 2003 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Philadelphia House Prices: Declines v. House Price Index 500.0 100% Pct. Declining 450.0 Philadelphia HPI 90% This chart compares the 400.0 Philadelphia House Price 80% Index (in red) to the percent of Philadelphia 350.0 neighborhoods that 70% experienced house price declines (in blue) , in each % quarter from 1980-2014. 300.0 60% Declining 250.0 50% 200.0 40% HPI: 1980Q1=100 HPI: 150.0 30% 100.0 20% 50.0 10% 0.0 0% 1984 2003 1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected] © 2015 Drexel University | [email protected]| UniversityDrexel 2015 Dispersion Index of Philadelphia Housing 6.00% The Dispersion Index measures how varied house price changes are across the city's neighborhoods. It is computed as the standard deviation of quarterly house prices changes across submarkets.
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