DU Undergraduate Research Journal Archive Volume 2 Issue 1 Article 6 1-1-2021 Fourth Down Decision Making: Challenging the Conservative Nature of NFL Coaches Will Palmquist University of Denver Ryan Elmore University of Denver - Advisor Benjamin Williams University of Denver - Advisor Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/duurj Part of the Applied Mathematics Commons, Applied Statistics Commons, and the Sports Studies Commons Recommended Citation Palmquist, Will; Elmore, Ryan; and Williams, Benjamin (2021) "Fourth Down Decision Making: Challenging the Conservative Nature of NFL Coaches," DU Undergraduate Research Journal Archive: Vol. 2 : Iss. 1 , Article 6. Available at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/duurj/vol2/iss1/6 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Digital Commons @ DU. It has been accepted for inclusion in DU Undergraduate Research Journal Archive by an authorized editor of Digital Commons @ DU. For more information, please contact
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[email protected]. Fourth Down Decision Making: Challenging the Conservative Nature of NFL Coaches Abstract This thesis analyzes the hypothesis that coaches in the National Football League are often too conservative in their decision making on fourth downs. I used R Studio and NFL play-by-play data to simulate actual football plays and drives according to different fourth down strategies. By measuring expected points per drive over thousands of simulated drives, we are able to evaluate the effectiveness of different fourth down strategies. This research points to a number of conclusions regarding the nature of NFL coaches on fourth downs as well as the complexity of modeling and simulating decision making in a complex sport such as professional football.