Fall 2018 Nfl Primetime Season & the Super Bowl
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FALL 2018 NFL PRIMETIME SEASON & THE SUPER BOWL Special Sports NTI and Social Edition 13 February 2019 Now that the field has been cleared on the 2018 NFL Primetime Season -- regular, post and SUPER BOWL -- it’s time to reflect on what came to pass. Despite all the issues surrounding the NFL and a less than stellar Super Bowl performance, there were some positive points. The Fall 2018 NFL season in Network Primetime scored a touchdown, achieving 6% gains for SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on NBC over last Fall in P2+ impressions and a 7%/12% increase from a 10.3/18 to an 11.0/21 in HH’s. Among the key adults, the narrative was much the same, flat/+12% from a 6.0/21 to a 6.0/24 in A18-49 and +4%/+14% from a 7.0/20 to a 7.3/23 in A25-54. THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on FOX also turned it up a notch, garnering slight increases over last Fall’s CBS and NBC average in P2+, HH’s and the key adult demos. Overall, there was a 3% gain in P2+ impressions with a 3%/5% uptick in HH rating and share, a 3%/12% gain in A18-49 and a 4%/11% increase in A25-54. On the cable front, while the actual performance averages were lower than on the broadcast networks, ESPN’s MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL also posted gains over Fall 2017. In P2+ impressions, ESPN’s regular season was up 9%. MNF turned in a 7%/11% increase in its HH performance (from a 6.4/12 to a 6.9/13), a 7%/19% increase in A18-49 (from a 3.7/14 to a 3.9/17) and a 9%/19% increase in A25-54 (from a 4.2/13 to a 4.6/16). On the flip side, the NFL NETWORK did not score as well as the other networks with its THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL or as well as last season. Versus Fall 2017, the NFL NETWORK’s TNF average was off 19% in P2+ impressions, was down 19%/16% in HH’s (from a 2.4/5 to a 1.9/4), down 25%/17% in A18-49 (from a 1.5/6 to a 1.1/5) and off 16%/25% in A25-54 (from a 1.7/6 to a 1.3/5). This FLASH includes: ▪ INTRODUCTION & TAKE-AWAY HEADLINES Pages 1-2 ▪ 2018 NFL SNF REGULAR PRIMETIME SEASON on NBC Pages 2-3 ▪ 2018 NFL POST SEASON in PRIMETIME Page 3 ▪ SUPER BOWL STATS--PERFORMANCE, BREAKOUT, HALFTIME Pages 3-7 PERFORMERS, POST SB PROGRAMMING ▪ SUPER BOWL BUZZ & SOCIAL CHATTER Pages 8-9 1 For the full demo picture of all charts and sections included in this FLASH, CLICK HERE for the Excel document and CLICK HERE for the Power Point Presentation. TAKE-AWAY HEADLINES ▪ Despite all the issues surrounding the NFL, the Fall 2018 NFL season in Network Primetime scored a touchdown, achieving gains for SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on NBC, THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on FOX and MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on ESPN versus year ago. The NFL NETWORK’s THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL turned in declines over Fall 2017. ▪ The #1 game of the regular season among P2+ impressions was the high-profile marquee match- up between the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots and quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers versus Tom Brady. This rarely seen “must watch” competition, which ended up with a score of New England 31, Green Bay 17, touched down with 23.7 million viewers in week 9. ▪ The post-season primetime NFL stats were also impressive, boasting gains for the WILDCARD GAME, the DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS and the CHAMPIONSHIP GAME versus year ago. ▪ SUPER BOWL LIII (New England Patriots versus LA Rams) was the lowest rated game going back 10 years among P2+ impressions (98.5 million viewers for the CBS broadcast alone), but ranked the third lowest back to 2007. ▪ Opinions for SUPER BOWL LIII’s weak performance based on articles and social media chatter include: it was not an exciting match-up; the halftime show was weak; New England Patriot “fatigue”; low LA Rams fan base; the commercials were not up to SB expectations; boycott for New Orleans fans, Saints were treated unfairly; and continued boycott for political reasons. ▪ The 2010 airing of CBS’ UNDERCOVER BOSS: WASTE MANAGEMENT was the highest rated series to premiere after the SUPER BOWL (back to 2007) in HH’s and A25-54 and the 2nd highest rated in A18-49. The 2012 airing of THE VOICE on NBC was the highest rated post-SUPER BOWL series in A18-49 and the 2nd highest in HH’s and A25-54. Make note that both UNDERCOVER BOSS and THE VOICE were the earliest airing post SUBER BOWL programs, starting at 10:13PM and 10:19PM, respectively. SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL FALL 2018 vs FALL 2017 WEEK-TO-WEEK REGULAR SEASON PERFORMANCE ▪ While SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL posted overall gains for the regular season (as seen above) versus year ago, the week-to-week performance varied. ▪ Though 2018 was a 17-week season, there were only 16 SNF games in 2017, so the following counts are based upon 16 weeks. Among P2+ impressions and HH rating, 11 of the 16 weeks scored above Fall 2017. In A18-49 and A25-54, nine and 10 weeks outperformed year ago, respectively. ▪ The #1 game of the regular season among P2+ impressions was the high-profile marquee match-up between the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots and quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers versus Tom Brady. This rarely seen “must watch” competition, which ended up with a score of New England 31, Green Bay 17, touched down with 23.7 million viewers in week 9. ▪ Rounding out the top 5 SNF performers was Chicago @ Green Bay with 22.2 million (week 1), Kansas City @ New England with 21.1 million (week 6), NY Giants @ Dallas with 20.7 million (week 2) and Green Bay @ Minnesota with 20.5 million (week 12). 2 FALL 2018 vs FALL 2017 POST-SEASON YOY PERFORMANCE ▪ The post-season primetime NFL stats were also notable when compared to year ago. ▪ The primetime WILDCARD GAME and the DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS garnered considerable increases over year ago -- up 29% and up 25%, respectively in P2+ impressions. The same held true in HH’s and among key adults. 3 ▪ The AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in primetime (New England @ Kansas City-54.2 million viewers) achieved a substantial 28% hike in P2+ over last season’s NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (Minnesota @ Philadelphia-42.3 million viewers). Increases were also evident in HH’s with a 24%/29% gain (from a 12.8/24 to a 15.9/30), a 28%/34% improvement (from a 7.0/26 to an 8.9/35) in A18-49 and a 29%/35% advantage (from an 8.4/26 to a 10.8/35) in A25-54. SUPER BOWL STATS TREND FROM 2019 BACK TO 2007 ▪ Fact: SUPER BOWL LIII (New England Patriots versus LA Rams) was the lowest rated game going back 10 years among P2+ impressions (98.5 million viewers for the CBS broadcast alone), but ranked the third lowest back to 2007. ▪ Fact: SUPER BOWL LIII was the lowest rated performer in HH rating (41.1) back to 2007 and the fourth lowest in HH share (67). ▪ Fact: SUPER BOWL LIII was the lowest rated in A18-49 rating (31.1) and the 4th highest rated in A18-49 share (78). ▪ Fact: SUPER BOWL LIII was the lowest rated SB back to 2007 among A25-54 ratings (34.7) and fell to the middle of the pack with a 76 share. ▪ Fact: New England was a Super Bowl contender six times since 2007 (2019, 2018, 2017, 2015, 2012 and 2008). ▪ Suppositions for its weak performance based on articles and social media: ➢ It was not an exciting match-up. ➢ The halftime show was weak. ➢ New England Patriot “fatigue” (six Super Bowls back to 2007, the last three of which were in a row). ➢ Low LA Rams fan base. ➢ The commercials were not up to SB expectations. ➢ Boycott for New Orleans fans, Saints were treated unfairly. ➢ Continued boycott for political reasons. ▪ According to CBS (as told to Deadline Hollywood): ➢ The network now puts Sunday’s total audience at 112.7 million viewers, not the 100.7 million tally (which included CBS Television Network, CBS Interactive, NFL digital, Verizon Media mobile and 4 ESPN Deportes) circulated the day after the game. “The revision stems from Nielsen’s “Out of Home” metric, a recent addition to the ratings measurement toolkit that is favored by sports broadcasters and other specialty networks. It found that 12 million more people watched the Super Bowl at other people’s parties or at bars, restaurants, hotels or other venues.” ➢ “Because Nielsen created the Out of Home rating in 2017 to better capture the rapidly multiplying number of screens in the U.S., it isn’t possible to do many historical comparisons with past Super Bowls.” ➢ FYI: The Katz NTI’s are based on the broadcast only performance for the SUPER BOWL so they will not match CBS’ above tally. 5 SUPER BOWL LIII – HALF-HOUR BREAKOUT ▪ Breaking SUPER BOWL LIII out by half-hour, we can see that there was an increase each half-hour among P2+ impressions up until halftime (which occurred from 8-8:30PM according to CBS). Then there was a slight dip in performance and an increase for the next two half-hours until 9:30-10PM where viewers dropped off.