Fall 2018 Nfl Primetime Season & the Super Bowl
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FALL 2018 NFL PRIMETIME SEASON & THE SUPER BOWL Special Sports NTI and Social Edition 13 February 2019 Now that the field has been cleared on the 2018 NFL Primetime Season -- regular, post and SUPER BOWL -- it’s time to reflect on what came to pass. Despite all the issues surrounding the NFL and a less than stellar Super Bowl performance, there were some positive points. The Fall 2018 NFL season in Network Primetime scored a touchdown, achieving 6% gains for SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on NBC over last Fall in P2+ impressions and a 7%/12% increase in HH’s. Among the key adults, the narrative was much the same, flat/+12% in A18-49 and from +4%/+15% in A25-54. THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on FOX also turned it up a notch, garnering slight increases over last Fall’s CBS and NBC average in P2+, HH’s and the key adult demos. Overall, there was a 3% gain in P2+ impressions with a 3%/5% uptick in HH rating and share, a 3%/12% gain in A18-49 and a 4%/11% increase in A25- 54. On the cable front, while the actual performance averages were lower than on the broadcast networks, ESPN’s MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL also posted gains over Fall 2017. In P2+ impressions, ESPN’s regular season was up 9%. MNF turned in a 7%/11% increase in its HH performance, a 7%/19% increase in A18-49 and a 9%/19% increase in A25-54. On the flip side, the NFL NETWORK did not score as well as the other networks with its THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL or as well as last season. Versus Fall 2017, the NFL NETWORK’s TNF average was off 19% in P2+ impressions, was down 19%/16% in HH’s, down 25%/17% in A18-49 and off 16%/25% in A25- 54. This FLASH includes (minus Nielsen ratings): ▪ INTRODUCTION & TAKE-AWAY HEADLINES Pages 1-2 ▪ 2018 NFL SNF REGULAR PRIMETIME SEASON on NBC Page 2 ▪ 2018 NFL POST SEASON in PRIMETIME Page 2 ▪ SUPER BOWL STATS--PERFORMANCE, BREAKOUT, POST SB Pages 2-3 PROGRAMMING ▪ SUPER BOWL BUZZ & SOCIAL CHATTER Pages 3-4 TAKE-AWAY HEADLINES ▪ Despite all the issues surrounding the NFL, the Fall 2018 NFL season in Network Primetime scored a touchdown, achieving gains for SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on NBC, THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on FOX and MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL on ESPN versus year ago. The NFL NETWORK’s THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL turned in declines over Fall 2017. ▪ The #1 game of the regular season among P2+ impressions was the high-profile marquee match- up between the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots and quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers versus Tom Brady. This rarely seen “must watch” competition, which ended up with a score of New England 31, Green Bay 17, touched down with a notable number of viewers in week 9. ▪ The post-season primetime NFL stats were also impressive, boasting gains for the WILDCARD GAME, the DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS and the CHAMPIONSHIP GAME versus year ago. ▪ SUPER BOWL LIII (New England Patriots versus LA Rams) was the lowest rated game going back 10 years among P2+ impressions (for the CBS broadcast alone), but ranked the third lowest back to 2007. ▪ Opinions for SUPER BOWL LIII’s weak performance based on articles and social media chatter include: it was not an exciting match-up; the halftime show was weak; New England Patriot 1 “fatigue”; low LA Rams fan base; the commercials were not up to SB expectations; boycott for New Orleans fans, Saints were treated unfairly; and continued boycott for political reasons. ▪ The 2010 airing of CBS’ UNDERCOVER BOSS: WASTE MANAGEMENT was the highest rated series to premiere after the SUPER BOWL (back to 2007) in HH’s and A25-54 and the 2nd highest rated in A18-49. The 2012 airing of THE VOICE on NBC was the highest rated post-SUPER BOWL series in A18-49 and the 2nd highest in HH’s and A25-54. Make note that both UNDERCOVER BOSS and THE VOICE were the earliest airing post SUBER BOWL programs, starting at 10:13PM and 10:19PM, respectively. SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL FALL 2018 vs FALL 2017 WEEK-TO-WEEK REGULAR SEASON PERFORMANCE ▪ While SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL posted overall gains for the regular season (as seen above) versus year ago, the week-to-week performance varied. ▪ Though 2018 was a 17-week season, there were only 16 SNF games in 2017, so the following counts are based upon 16 weeks. Among P2+ impressions and HH rating, 11 of the 16 weeks scored above Fall 2017. In A18-49 and A25-54, nine and 10 weeks outperformed year ago, respectively. ▪ The #1 game of the regular season among P2+ impressions was the high-profile marquee match-up between the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots and quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers versus Tom Brady. This rarely seen “must watch” competition, which ended up with a score of New England 31, Green Bay 17, touched down with 23.7 million viewers in week 9. ▪ Rounding out the top 5 SNF performers was Chicago @ Green Bay, Kansas City @ New England (week 6), NY Giants @ Dallas (week 2) and Green Bay @ Minnesota (week 12). FALL 2018 vs FALL 2017 POST-SEASON YOY PERFORMANCE ▪ The post-season primetime NFL stats were also notable when compared to year ago. ▪ The primetime WILDCARD GAME and the DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS garnered considerable increases over year ago -- up 29% and up 25%, respectively in P2+ impressions. The same held true in HH’s and among key adults. ▪ The AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in primetime (New England @ Kansas City) achieved a substantial 28% hike in P2+ over last season’s NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (Minnesota @ Philadelphia). Increases were also evident in HH’s with a 24%/29% gain, a 28%/34% improvement in A18-49 and a 29%/35% advantage in A25-54. SUPER BOWL STATS TREND FROM 2019 BACK TO 2007 ▪ Fact: SUPER BOWL LIII (New England Patriots versus LA Rams) was the lowest rated game going back 10 years among P2+ impressions (for the CBS broadcast alone), but ranked the third lowest back to 2007. ▪ Fact: SUPER BOWL LIII was the lowest rated performer in HH rating back to 2007 and the fourth lowest in HH share. ▪ Fact: SUPER BOWL LIII was the lowest rated in A18-49 rating and the 4th highest rated in A18-49 share. ▪ Fact: SUPER BOWL LIII was the lowest rated SB back to 2007 among A25-54 ratings and fell to the middle of the pack in A25-54 share. ▪ Fact: New England was a Super Bowl contender six times since 2007 (2019, 2018, 2017, 2015, 2012 and 2008). ▪ Suppositions for its weak performance based on articles and social media: ➢ It was not an exciting match-up. ➢ The halftime show was weak. ➢ New England Patriot “fatigue” (six Super Bowls back to 2007, the last three of which were in a row). ➢ Low LA Rams fan base. ➢ The commercials were not up to SB expectations. ➢ Boycott for New Orleans fans, Saints were treated unfairly. ➢ Continued boycott for political reasons. 2 SUPER BOWL LIII – HALF-HOUR BREAKOUT ▪ Breaking SUPER BOWL LIII out by half-hour, we can see that there was an increase each half-hour among P2+ impressions up until halftime (which occurred from 8-8:30PM according to CBS). Then there was a slight dip in performance and an increase for the next two half-hours until 9:30-10PM where viewers dropped off. ▪ Among A18-49 and A25-54, there was an increase each half-hour of the game, through halftime, up and until 9:30-10PM when viewership started to slip as the game was wrapping up. ▪ Once we have a historical timing of the halftime show, we can start looking at a trend. For now, we have the halftime show for SUPER BOWL LIII running from 8-8:30PM. We’ll see going forward. POST SUPER BOWL PROGRAMMING TREND ▪ The 2010 airing of CBS’ UNDERCOVER BOSS: WASTE MANAGEMENT was the highest rated series to premiere after the SUPER BOWL in HH’s and A25-54 and the 2nd highest rated in A18-49. ▪ The 2012 airing of THE VOICE on NBC was the highest rated post SUPER BOWL series in A18-49 and the 2nd highest in HH’s and A25-54. ▪ Make note that both UNDERCOVER BOSS and THE VOICE were the earliest airings of post SUBER BOWL programs, starting at 10:13PM and 10:19PM, respectively. SUPER BOWL LIII BUZZ and SOCIAL CHATTER SUPER BOWL LIII was hit with a ton of criticism nationwide due to its low scoring/less than exciting game and a halftime show that was tepid at best. Social Media let all parties involved have it from bashing the game to bashing the performers and even knocking the commercials. THE GAME Social media users expressed their frustration for the far from remarkable game with a touchdown not occurring until the end of the third quarter. It also didn’t help that New Orleans staged a huge protest after a bad call that possibly cost them a spot in the game. ▪ New Orleans staged a protest during Super Bowl Sunday as thousands of fans decided NOT to watch the game and instead party on the streets of the city. New Orleans took matters into their own hands as fans in the thousands as well as hundreds of bars in the area decided to not watch at all. ➢ #BoycottBowl #Saints #NewOrleans and #WhoDat were seen trending during the game ➢ @JeffDuncan_ tweeted “#NOLA has spoken. Super Bowl LIII earned a 26.1 metered rating in New Orleans, the lowest of any market and the lowest ever in New Orleans” ➢ For reference in that market, last year it earned a 53.0 metered market rating.