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Social Risk Management 2.0 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS DISCUSSION PAPER Public Disclosure Authorized No. 1930 | MAY 2019 Public Disclosure Authorized Social Protection in an Era of Increasing Uncertainty and Disruption: Social Risk Management 2.0 Public Disclosure Authorized Steen Lau Jorgensen and Paul B. Siegel Public Disclosure Authorized © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: +1 (202) 473 1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +1 (202) 522 2625; e-mail: [email protected]. Abstract retro geometric background: © iStock.com/marigold_88 Project 54906 Abstract This paper updates the Social Risk Management (SRM) conceptual framework; the foundation of the World Bank’s first Social Protection Sector Strategy. SRM 2.0 addresses the increasingly risky and uncertain world; with opportunities and outcomes driven by possible disruptions from technology, markets, climate change, etc. SRM 2.0 is a spatial assets and livelihoods approach to household well-being featuring a risk chain covering all households across the lifecycle and for both positive and negative events. Key findings: Location and context are critical for household choices; assets are key to sustainable resilience to poverty, new assets and livelihoods need to be considered for the 21st century, and resilience and vulnerability to poverty are two sides of the same coin. Operationally, SRM 2.0 points to the need for a greater focus on asset and livelihood building programs in addition to traditional poverty alleviation and risk sharing programs, better integration between rights-based and risk-based approaches, more inclusive targeting, and consideration of global social protection. JEL Codes: I3 Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty, J03 Labor Economics Policies, K38 Human Rights Law Gender Law, O15 Human Resources Human Development Income Distribution Migration Keywords: Disruption, social risk management, social protection, social contract, social guarantee, asset- based approach, risk chain, no-regrets approach, livelihoods framework, resilience framework, vulnerability to poverty, resilience to poverty, human vulnerability, development resilience, risk sharing, planned coping, safety nets, Graduation Model, productive economic inclusion, adaptive social protection, productive safety nets, cash and caring, human rights, social justice, global risk pool, global finance and insurance, global risk management, global social contract, global social justice. by Steen Lau Jorgensen Director, Social Protection and Jobs (SP&J) Global Practice, World Bank [email protected] [email protected] and Paul B. Siegel Consultant, Social Protection and Jobs (SP&J) Global Practice, World Bank [email protected] [email protected] Contents FOREWORD .............................................................................................................................. V ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................ VIII ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................ IX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... XI CHAPTER I: A CHANGING WORLD .......................................................................................... 1 I.A Global Trends in Poverty ................................................................................................................... 1 I.C The Future of Work ........................................................................................................................... 6 I.D Rediscovering the Social Contract..................................................................................................... 7 CHAPTER II: SOCIAL PROTECTION IS CHANGING .................................................................. 10 II.A Growth of SP Interventions ............................................................................................................ 10 II.B Increasingly Diverse SP Programs .................................................................................................. 12 II.C Global Initiatives for SP .................................................................................................................. 19 II.D Definition of SP .............................................................................................................................. 21 II.E Social Policy and SP ........................................................................................................................ 25 CHAPTER III: INTRODUCTION TO SRM ................................................................................. 27 III.A Background and Definitions .......................................................................................................... 27 III.B SRM Instruments and HH Decision Making .................................................................................. 29 III.C Critiques of SRM and Definition of SRM 2.0 .................................................................................. 30 III.D Basic Definitions: Poverty, Vulnerability and Resilience to Poverty .............................................. 32 III.E Typology of 4 Household Groups and Income/Asset Poverty ........................................................ 33 III.F Vulnerability and Resilience to Poverty ......................................................................................... 36 CHAPTER IV: SRM CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK SPATIAL ASSETS & LIVELIHOODS APPROACH TO HH WELL-BEING, AND THE RISK CHAIN ........................................................................................... 41 IV.A INTRODUCTION: SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS, ASSET-BASED, AND RESILIENCE APPROACHES .................................. 41 IV.B SPATIAL ASSETS & LIVELIHOODS APPROACH TO HH WELL-BEING .................................................................... 42 Location-Context .................................................................................................................................. 44 Hazard/Risk Profile............................................................................................................................... 46 Household Livelihood Assets ................................................................................................................ 49 Intangible Household Assets: .............................................................................................................................50 Tangible Household Assets: ................................................................................................................................51 Household Livelihood Activities ............................................................................................................ 56 IV.C RISK CHAIN FOR SRM 2.0 ........................................................................................................................ 57 Ex-Ante Risk Management ................................................................................................................... 59 Reducing probability of negative event ............................................................................................................60 Optimizing Asset and Livelihood Portfolio ....................................................................................................... 61 Risk Sharing .......................................................................................................................................................... 62 Ex-Post Risk Management (Hazard/Risk Event is Realized) ................................................................. 65 Risk Management at Different Levels .................................................................................................. 66 CHAPTER V: SOCIAL PROTECTION IN AN SRM 2.0 WORLD ................................................... 69 V.A KEY MESSAGES OF SRM 2.0 ...................................................................................................................... 70 Location and the Context are Critical for HH Options and Choices ...................................................... 70 Assets and Asset Accumulation are Key to Sustainable Resilience to Poverty ..................................... 70 Vulnerability
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