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Tracer Analysis of Sediment Redistribution of Tamar AMC Search and Estuary for Launceston Flood Authority ETS Worldwide Ltd

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Tracer Analysis of Sediment Redistribution of Tamar AMC Search and Estuary for Launceston Flood Authority ETS Worldwide Ltd Thesis: Strategies for Sustainable Morphological Remediation of the Tamar River Estuary and other Similarly Degraded Estuaries by Ian M Kidd, BSc, Grad. Dip. of Computing Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Tasmania October 2016 Table of Contents Abstract ………………………………………………………………………….…...I General Declarations………….……………………….………………………..……II Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………….III List of Figures……………………………………………………………………….IV List of Tables……………………………….……………………………………..…V List of symbols and abbreviations used in the thesis……………….………………VI Chapter One: Introduction 1. Research Question………………………………………………………….……1 1.1 Background………………………………………………………………1 2. Literature review………………………………………………………………...1 2.1 Definition and classification of estuaries……………………………...1 2.2 Water circulation…………………….………………………………... 2 2.2.1 Classification of estuaries by circulation mode………………..3 2.3 Tides, tidal constituents and harmonics……………………………….3 2.3.1Tidal constituent analysis……………………………………...4 2.4 Sediment dynamics……………………………………………..………..4 2.4.1 Turbidity maximum, flocculation……….……………………..4 2.4.2 Tidal asymmetry……………………………….………………4 2.4.3 Sediment transport……………………………….……………5 2.4.4 Tidal asymmetry ratio…………………………………………7 2.4.5 Net sediment flux…………………….………………………..7 2.4.6 Sediment supply……………..……..……………………….....9 2.4.7 Sediment management………………...………………………9 Dredging……………………………..…………………………9 Silt raking………………..……………………………………10 Catchment management……………….……………….…..…10 2.5 Morphological change in estuaries………………….………………..11 2.5.1 Bathymetric migration………………………………………11 2.5.2 Morphological change due to sea-level rise……….…………12 2.5.3 Mitigation of sea-level rise………….………………………..15 2.5.4 Inter-tidal flats and saltmarsh…….………………………..…15 2.6 Morphological Modelling………………………………………………15 2.6.1 Hydrodynamic theory……………………………………..…17 2.7 Long-term evolution of estuaries………………………………………17 2.8 Problem estuaries and remediation projects………….………………19 3. The Tamar River estuary……………….....………………………………….…21 3.1 The present state……………………….…………………………….….23 3.2 The dynamic nature of the silt accretion…………….…………….….24 3.3 Some fundamental observations………………..…….…………….….24 3.4 Previous studies…………………………….……………………..….…26 3.5 Identification of problem, symptoms, causes and root-causes…...…..27 3.6 Datasets………………………….…………………..…………………..29 3.7 Tidal asymmetry in the upper Tamar……….….…………………..…29 4. Hypothesis ……………….…………………………………………………….…31 5. Methodology of this thesis……………...…………………………………….….32 5.1 Thesis structure…………………..………………………………...….33 5.2 Precision and accuracy of data………………………………………..38 CHAPTER TWO: (PAPER #1) EQUILIBRIUM IMBALANCE DUE TO SEDIMENT RAKING INFLUENCES M2 TIDAL CONSTITUENT, M4 AND M6 HARMONICS, TIDAL ASYMMETRY AND NET SEDIMENT FLUX (Kidd and Fischer, 2016) Abstract………………………………………………………………………...………. 41 Introduction……………………………………………………………………….…… 42 Methods………………………………………………………….………………..…… 48 Results………………………………………………………………………………….. 52 Discussion……………………………………………………………………………… 64 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………… 71 Acknowledgements…………….……………………………………………………… 72 CHAPTER THREE: (PAPER #2) A FIRST-ORDER MORPHOLOGICAL RESPONSE MODEL (FORM) FOR PREDICTING HYDROLOGICALLY INDUCED BATHYMETRIC CHANGE IN COASTAL-PLAIN ESTUARIES (Kidd et al., 2016a) Abstract………………………………………………………………………...………. 74 Introduction……………………………………………………………………….…… 74 Methods………………………………………………………….………………..…… 79 Results………………………………………………………………………………….. 88 Discussion……………………………………………………………………………… 95 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………… 99 Acknowledgements…………….……………………………………………………… 100 CHAPTER FOUR: (PAPER #3) A SCENARIO-BASED APPROACH TO EVALUATING POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL OUTCOMES FOLLOWING A TIDAL BARRAGE INSTALLATION (Kidd et al., 2015) Abstract………………………………………………………………………...………. 102 Introduction……………………………………………………………………….…… 103 Methods………………………………………………………….………………..…… 106 Results………………………………………………………………………………….. 112 Discussion……………………………………………………………………………… 114 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………… 125 Acknowledgements…………….……………………………………………………… 126 CHAPTER FIVE: (PAPER #4) TOTAL EXCLUSION BARRAGES AS SEA-LEVEL RISE MITIGATORS: THE GEOMORPHOLOGICAL TRADE-OFFS FOR NEW INSTALLATIONS (Kidd et al., 2016b) Abstract………………………………………………………………………...………. 128 Introduction……………………………………………………………………….…… 128 Methods………………………………………………………….………………..…… 131 Results………………………………………………………………………………….. 140 Discussion……………………………………………………………………………… 148 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………… 156 Acknowledgements…………….……………………………………………………… 157 CHAPTER SIX: (PAPER #5) BATHYMETRIC REJUVENATION STRATEGIES FOR MORPHOLOGICALLY DEGRADED ESTUARIES Abstract………………………………………………………………………...………. 159 Introduction……………………………………………………………………….…… 159 Methods………………………………………………………….………………..…… 161 Results………………………………………………………………………………….. 170 Discussion……………………………………………………………………………… 176 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………… 184 Acknowledgements…………….……………………………………………………… 185 CHAPTER SEVEN: GENERAL DISCUSSION Overview……………………………………………………………………………… 187 Discussion………………………………………………………………………..…… 187 Limitations of the study………………………………………………………….…… 195 Recommendations for further research………………………………………….…… 195 Management Implications…………………………………………………………… 196 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………..……… 198 Appendices A Identifying major stressors: the essential precursor to restoring cultural ecosystem 199 services in a degraded estuary (Davis and Kidd, 2012)……… B (Paper #6) Tidal heights in hyper-synchronous estuaries (Kidd et al., 2014)… 221 C 200 Years of Mud and Misunderstanding, (Kidd and Davis, 2015)…. 235 D Identification of problems, symptoms, causes and root-causes…………….. 243 E Modelling of the Lake Batman Project………………………………… 247 F GIS project: Potential tidal and flood inundation impacts on Launceston and suburbs……………………………………………………………………. 249 References……………………………………………………………………… 251 I Abstract When anthropogenically induced morphological change within estuaries becomes irreversible, hysteresis is established and mitigating projects are required to undo any degradation. The morphologically degraded Tamar River estuary in Tasmania Australia typifies the universality of problems and solutions pertaining to estuaries in Australia, North America, Europe and the UK. Historically, restoration projects proposed for the Tamar were analogues of projects elsewhere, for which full repercussions are emerging. Barrages and weirs for example, unintentionally altered the hydrodynamics with negative long-term morphological consequences. Within the Tamar, recently mooted projects supposedly reduced the flood dominance of tides. Since the 1880s, silt management was by dredging (now cost prohibitive); replaced in recent years by silt raking. Neither process addresses the root-cause of the degradation. The aim of this thesis was to develop and model sustainable solutions (proven and novel) for hysteretic degraded estuaries such as the Tamar, whilst identifying projects having potentially unacceptable trade-offs. The multifaceted methodology reviewed datasets pertaining to tidal heights, bathymetry and land elevations for the Tamar; examined asymmetrical tides, net sediment flux and establishment of equilibrium; developed a First Order Morphological Response Model (FORM) to review and evaluate proposed projects; used FORM on four international examples, and evaluated the effectiveness of barrages as mitigators of sea-level rise. Tidal asymmetry results showed that flood velocity bias persisted and maximised at equilibrium, the inference being their removal is counterproductive. A feedback loop developed at equilibrium (driven by M4 and M6 harmonics); deposition on the banks led to slumping into the constantly scoured channel resulting in a net zero sediment flux. FORM modelled the new equilibrium of five putative barrages within the Tamar. Equilibrium established from a persistent flood velocity bias, ultimately resulting in a net loss of physical amenity below the barrage and unsatisfactory ecological trade-offs both upstream and downstream. Another study of four international barraged systems showed morphological degradation with some mitigation of sea-level rise in each head-pond but potential to increase tidal ranges downstream, thereby exacerbating sea-level rise. Neither study justified the installation of a barrage in the Tamar. Projects designed to remove or mitigate reduced estuarine and freshwater flow would be beneficial in restoring some amenity to the Tamar with potentially up to 8 million m3 of silt permanently removed. Those projects synergistic with nature proved prospective, whereas those antagonistic to nature would fail. Results inform a more sustainable management of estuaries in general with emphasis on a proactive, rather than a reactive paradigm. II Declaration of originality I hereby declare that this thesis contains no material which has been accepted for a degree or diploma by the University or any other institution, except by way of background information and duly acknowledged in the thesis, and to the best of my knowledge and belief no material previously published or written by another person except where due acknowledgement is made in the text of the thesis, nor does the thesis contain any material which infringes copyright. Copyright Notice This thesis does not contain any material which infringes copyright. Authority of access This thesis may be made available for loan and limited copying and communication
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