A New Strategic Approach to Biodiversity Management – Research Component
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A New Strategic Approach to Biodiversity Management – Research Component L.F. Lumsden, J.L. Nelson, C.R. Todd, M.P. Scroggie, E.G. McNabb, T.A. Raadik, S.J. Smith, S. Acevedo, G. Cheers, M.L. Jemison and M.D. Nicol September 2013 Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Report produced by Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Department of Environment and Primary Industries PO Box 137 Heidelberg, Victoria 3084 Phone (03) 9450 8600 Website: www.depi.vic.gov.au/ari © State of Victoria, Department of Environment and Primary Industries 2013 This publication is copyright. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of private study, research, criticism or review as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced, copied, transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical or graphic) without the prior written permission of the State of Victoria, Department of Environment and Primary Industries. All requests and enquiries should be directed to the Customer Service Centre, 136 186 or email customer.service@dse. vic.gov.au Citation: Lumsden, L.F., Nelson, J.L., Todd, C.R., Scroggie, M.P., McNabb, E.G., Raadik, T.A., Smith, S.J., Acevedo, S., Cheers, G., Jemison, M.L. and Nicol, M.D. (2013). A New Strategic Approach to Biodiversity Management - Research Component. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Unpublished Client Report for the Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Heidelberg, Victoria. Disclaimer This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication. Accessibility If you would like to receive this publication in an accessible format, such as large print or audio, please telephone 136 186, or through the National Relay Service (NRS) using a modem or textphone/teletypewriter (TTY) by dialling 1800 555 677, or email [email protected] This document is also available in PDF format on the internet at www.dse.vic.gov.au Front cover photo: Mountain Ash forest in Yarra Ranges National Park. The vegetation on the right was burnt in the Black Saturday wildfires in February 2009 (Photographs Steve Smith and Lindy Lumsden). Contents List of tables and figures.................................................................................................................. v Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................ viii Summary........................................................................................................................................... 1 1 Background............................................................................................................................. 6 2 Central Highlands project..................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Selection of priority species..................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Overall survey design............................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Data analysis and modelling .................................................................................................... 9 2.4 Leadbeater’s Possum.............................................................................................................. 10 2.4.1 Leadbeater’s Possum broad scale survey................................................................ 10 2.4.2 Leadbeater’s Possum fire refuge project ................................................................ 15 2.4.3 Leadbeater’s Possum Population Viability Analysis.............................................. 18 2.5 Large forest owls and gliders ................................................................................................. 28 2.6 Smoky Mouse ........................................................................................................................ 35 2.7 New species of Galaxias ........................................................................................................ 38 3 Investigation of Long-footed Potoroo population size and associated habitat requirements in East Gippsland ...................................................................................................43 3.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 43 3.2 Determine the population size required to sustain a ‘substantial and viable population of Long-footed Potoroos’ in East Gippsland.............................................................................. 44 3.3 Determine the area of suitable habitat required to support a stable population of Long-footed Potoroos ................................................................................................................................. 49 3.4 Clarify the distribution of Long-footed Potoroos in East Gippsland ..................................... 50 3.5 Determine the area that is currently reserved within the range of the Long-footed Potoroo in East Gippsland ....................................................................................................................... 55 3.6 Compare the area that is required to support a viable population with the area of Long- footed Potoroo habitat currently reserved .............................................................................. 58 3.7 Assumptions and knowledge gaps ......................................................................................... 58 4 Future directions.................................................................................................................. 61 References ....................................................................................................................................... 63 iv List of tables and figures List of tables Table 1. Species selected for field sampling within the Central Highlands........................................8 Table 2. The number of Leadbeater’s Possum survey sites selected in four strata in the Central Highlands RFA. ......................................................................................................................11 Table 3. The area of the Leadbeater’s Possum reserve system unburnt during the 2009 wildfires, and the area of montane ash forest or Snow Gum woodland habitats in parks and reserves additional to areas in the Leadbeater’s Possum reserve..........................................................25 Table 4. The area of predicted currently occupied Leadbeater’s Possum habitat in conservation reserves (parks and reserves and the Leadbeater’s Possum reserve system) and in state forest at two predicted levels of occupancy. .....................................................................................25 Table 5. The area of Leadbeater’s Possum habitat required for less than a 5% chance of the population in the Central Highlands falling below 500 adult females in a 200 year time frame, under differing levels of habitat decline. Two additional risk thresholds are included: 2.5% (more risk averse) and 10% (more risk tolerant)...........................................................26 Table 6. The impact of future fires on the area (in ha) of Leadbeater’s Possum habitat required for less than a 2.5%, 5% or 10% chance of the population in the Central Highlands falling below 500 adult females in a 200 year time frame, under differing levels of habitat decline.27 Table 7. The number of large forest owl and glider survey sites selected in four survey strata in the Central Highlands RFA...........................................................................................................28 Table 8. The number of Smoky Mouse survey sites selected in four strata in the Central Highlands RFA.........................................................................................................................................35 Table 9. The influence on the required population size of different levels of environmental variability (not factoring in catastrophes) and different levels of risk, using population estimates derived from the long-term trapping data from the Bellbird trapping grid.............46 Table 10. Recorded fire size and frequency within the known Long-footed Potoroo distribution over the past 100 years............................................................................................................46 Table 11. The required population size to support ‘a substantial and viable population’, under differing scenarios at the current survival rate, and if the survival rate could be increased by 10%. ........................................................................................................................................48 Table 12. The area of suitable habitat required under differing population densities and using different extinction risk profiles, based on the required the population size with no catastrophic events and if catastrophic events are incorporated.. ...........................................49 Table 13. Allocation of survey sites incorporated into the survey design for the Long-footed