Regional Weather Inference and Forecast Meteorological Analysis

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Regional Weather Forecasting Centre
Regional Meteorological Centre India Meteorological Department
Nagpur

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Regional Weather Inference And Forecast

Friday, 18 August 2017

Morning

Issue Time : 11.30 Hrs. IST

Meteorological Analysis (Based on 0830 Hrs IST Observations)

Weather Watch:- M Heavy to very heavy rainfall occured at isolated places over Chhattisgarh. Thunderstorm observed at isoloated places over Chhattisgarh. Very light to moderate rainfall occurred at most places over Chhattisgarh, at many places over East Madhya Pradesh, at few places over Vidarbha and at isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh.

Monsoon Watch :- Monsoon been active over Chhattisgarh.
Inference:- The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Amritsar, Ambala, Budaun, Sidhi, Jharsiguda, centre of low pressure area and thence southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal, a low pressure area has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal Odisha. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation and extends upto 9.5 km above mean sea level tilts southwestwards with height. The Western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan & neighbourhood between 3.1 & 3.6 km above mean sea level persists, with the trough aloft now runs roughly along Longitude of 74.0° E and north of 30.0°N. The east-west shear zone runs roughly along latitude 14.0°N at 7.6 km above mean sea level. .

Datia recorded the highest maximum temparature of 37.2 degree celsius. Damoh recorded the Lowest minimum temperature of 19.6 degree celsius.
Chief amount of rainfall in cms are :-
Madhya Pradesh:- MALANJKHAND ORCHHA ANUPPUR-AWS GADARWARA
GHANSORE NAINPUR -- 3each; KURWAI RAJNAGAR KHURAI KHAJURAHO TENDUKHEDA NARSINGHPUR-AWS JABALPUR-NEW--AWS -- 2each; LAHAR HARDA-AWS BARELI SHUJALPUR AMARKANTAK DINDORI-AWS KARELI REHLI BICHHIA DEORI SEONI-AWS PUSHPAJGARH SOHAGPUR-AWS KOTMA GOTEGAON -- 1each;

Chhattisgarh :- Akaltara--- 12 Kawardha -- 10;Premnagar -- 7; Bhanupratappur Pratappur -- 6each; Keshkal Ramanujganj -- 5each; Antagarh Rajpur BALRAMPUR Mungeli Bilaspur Khairagarh Balod Mana AP -- 4each; Bhopalpatnam Charama Kanker Surajpur Wadrafnagar Mainpat Ambagarh Rajnandgaon Bemetara Durg Basna Balodabazar RAIPUR Raigarh -- 3each; Gondia AP Kondagaon Kusumi Udaipur Ambikapur Dongargaon Saja Berla Saraypali Dhamtari Rajim Simga Arang Champa -- 2each; Sadakarjuni Narayanpur Sukma Jagdalpur Manendragarh Baikunthpur Pathalgaon Kunkuri Marwahi Pendra Road Dongargarh Gandai Dhamdha Mahasamund Nagari Gariaband Palari -- 1each;

Vidarbha :- Amagaon Salekasa Etapalli Gondia Gregaon Nandura---2 Deori Gondia AP Babhulgaon Tirora Bhamragad Pawni Sakoli Chamorshi Tumsar---1

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Old Terminal Building, DBAI Airport, Sonegaon, Nagpur - 440005

Tel. No. : 91-712-2282157, 2288544

Fax. No. : 91-712-2282157

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Weather Forecast for next 5 days * valid upto 0830 Hrs IST of 23 August 2017

Meteorological Sub-division wise detailed 5 days rainfall forecast is given in Table 1. No significant change in maximum and minimum temparatures over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha & Chhattisgarh during next 2 days.

Outlook for subsequent two days from 23 August 2017 to 25 August 2017

RA/TSH Very likely to occur at many places over Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh and at few places over Chhattisgarh.

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Tel. No. : 91-712-2282157, 2288544

Fax. No. : 91-712-2282157

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Weather Warnings for next 5 days * valid upto 0830 Hrs IST of 23 August 2017

Heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh. Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Northeast Madhya Pradesh.
18-Aug-2017 (Day 1)

Heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Vidarbha. Heavy rainfall very likely at few places over Vidarbha and at isolated places over
(Day 2) 19-Aug-2017
Southeast Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and West Madhya Pradesh. Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Southeast Madhya Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha & Chhattisgarh.
20-Aug-2017 (Day 3)

21-Aug-2017 (Day 4)
Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh No Warning.
22-Aug-2017 (Day 5)

* The Forecast and Warning for any day is valid from 0830 hours IST of day till 0830 hours IST of next day

Legend :

Probability of

Warning

WARNING (TAKE ACTION) ALERT (BE PREPARED) WATCH (BE UPDATED)
NO WARNING (NO

Unlikely Likely
< 25
25 - 50
Very Likely 50 - 75 Most Likely > 75

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Tel. No. : 91-712-2282157, 2288544

Fax. No. : 91-712-2282157

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Table 1

5 Day Rainfall Forecast

Outlook for next two days valid from 0830 hrs IST of 23-Aug to 0830 hrs IST of 25-Aug
18-Aug Today
19-Aug Sat
20-Aug Sun
21-Aug Mon
22-Aug Tue
Met Sub- division

West Madhya
Pradesh

SCT

FWS

WS

FWS

FWS
FWS FWS
FWS FWS
East Madhya
Pradesh

FWS

Vidarbha

FWS

WS

FWS

SCT
FWS SCT
FWS