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DOWNLOAD IPC Zambia Acute Food Insecurity 2019May2020march IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA May 2019 – March 2020 ZAMBIA FACES INCREASED ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY Issued in August 2019 DUE TO ERRATIC AND LOW RAINS CURRENT MAY 2019 - SEPTEMBER 2019 PROJECTED OCTOBER 2019 - MARCH 2020 Phase 5 0 Phase 5 0 People in Catastrophe People in Catastrophe 1.7M Phase 4 270,000 2.3M Phase 4 410,000 18% of the population People in Emergency 24% of the population People in Emergency Phase 3 1,390,000 Phase 3 1,840,000 People facing severe People in Crisis People facing severe People in Crisis acute food insecurity acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+) Phase 2 2,820,000 (IPC Phase 3+) Phase 2 3,120,000 People in Stress People in Stress IN NEED OF URGENT Phase 1 4,770,000 IN NEED OF URGENT Phase 1 4,120,000 ACTION People minimally ACTION People minimally food insecure food insecure Overview Current Acute Food Insecurity May - Sept 2019 In the current period (May to September 2019) around 1.7 million people are estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 or MAP KEY worse. In the projection period, covering the lean season IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classication between October 2019 and March 2020, the number of (mapped Phase represents highest severity affecting people in need of urgent action is expected to rise to about at least 20% of the population) 2.3 million people. The devastating effects on agriculture 1 - Minimal production of erratic rains, dry spells, water logging, false 2 - Stressed and late starts to the 2018/2019 rain season were the 3 - Crisis main causes of reduced crop production, contributing to 4 - Emergency the acute food insecurity conditions across the country. 5 - Famine Areas with inadequate Prolonged dry spells affected Southern, Western and evidence Areas not included parts of Lusaka, Eastern and Central provinces, while flash in the analysis floods, water logging and leaching were in the northern and eastern parts of the country. Projected Acute Food Insecurity Oct 2019 - March 2020 Key Drivers MAP KEY IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classication (mapped Phase represents highest severity affecting at least 20% of the population) 1 - Minimal 2 - Stressed Drought Erratic Rainfall Flooding 3 - Crisis Drought conditions Erratic rains mostly Flooding in the north 4 - Emergency and dry spells led to in the south resulted led to water logging 5 - Famine a marked decrease in in reduced crop and leaching of Areas with inadequate crop production. production. nutrients for crops. evidence Areas not included in the analysis IPC Analysis Partners: REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 2 SITUATION OVERVIEW AND KEY DRIVERS Current Situation Overview Between May – September 2019, representing the current period, about 1.7 million people (18% of Zambia’s rural population), will require urgent action to protect their livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps. 15% are in Phase 3 (Crisis), marginally able to meet minimum food needs, but only by depleting essential livelihood assets or through crisis- coping strategies, and 3% in Phase 4 (Emergency), facing large food gaps. Out of the 86 analysed districts, two districts have been classified in Phase 4 (Gwembe – 14,800 and Lunga – 5,600), 48 districts in Phase 3, 39 districts in Phase 2 (Stress) while one is in Phase 1 (Minimal). In all the districts classified in Phase 3 or worse, households have already started employing food based coping strategies, such as reducing the number of meals and meal portions, with some having experienced problems in food access in the preceding 30 days, which coincided with the start of the 2019-2020 consumption year in April 2019. The devastating effects of dry spells, water logging, and false and late starts to the rain season on agriculture production were the main causes of reduced food availability and food access, thus contributing to the acute food insecurity conditions across the country. The prolonged dry spells between January and March 2019 affected Southern, Western and parts of Lusaka and Central provinces. In most districts, the majority of households, who were facing the second consecutive season with prolonged dry spells, had limited and depleted stocks of cereal, with cereals depleting during the first three months of the April 2019 – March 2020 consumption period. The majority of these households rely entirely on crop production for food and income. A number of districts registered a huge decline in maize production, for example Gwembe, which had a 98% reduction in maize compared to last year. At national level, maize production decreased to 2,004,389 metric tonnes from 2,394,907 metric tonnes produced last season, representing a 16% decline in production. Gwembe had the highest proportion of households that reported to have sold more than the usual amount of livestock, while the sample average indicated about 10%. Projected Situation Overview The food security situation is estimated to likely deteriorate during the lean season, which forms the projected period for this analysis. Between October 2019 and the end of the current consumption period, 2.3 million people are estimated to be in Phase 3 or worse, comprising 1.9 million (20%) in Phase 3 (Crisis) and 400,000 (4%) in Phase 4 (Emergency). Only 39% of households had cereal stocks of more than 6 months, of which 31% had for more than 10 months. More districts are expected to slip into worse off phases, as food from own production depletes and increases reliance on purchases. It is expected that the current ban on exports of cereals will remain throughout the projected period and will ensure that cereal especially maize prices remain relatively stable. Three districts (Gwembe – 15,000, Shangómbo – 13,000 and Lunga – 6,000) are projected to be in Phase 4 food insecurity situations and will face huge food gaps as the situation deteriorates due to consecutive reduction in cereal production, largely due to erratic and late start of rains. 52 districts are estimated to be facing Phase 3 (Crisis) situations, while 33 will be in Phase 2 (Stress) situations. During this period, the proportion of households facing Phase 4 situations are expected to increase, especially in Gwembe, Lunga and Shang’ombo, which had already recorded an increased sale of livestock. The analysis assumed a normal rainy season for the 2019/2020 agriculture season, which falls within the projected period and is expected to provide casual labour opportunities for poor households in selected districts. Reliance on the market will expose 39% of the households, who were already spending more than 65% of their income on food, to food insecurity as prices increase during the lean season. REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 3 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION Response Priorities • Provide humanitarian support in terms of food relief for the districts falling in Phase 3 and 4. • Scale up livelihood diversification programmes in order to contribute to alternative livelihoods for the communities. • Strengthen the support on conservation farming implementation. • Owing to the existence of many dambos and rivers in the Northern and Western parts of the country, there is a need to promote community irrigation schemes and water harvesting for off-season production. in order to improve food security conditions at household level. • DMMU needs to strengthen the monitoring system related to the food security situation in the 31 districts to track the food security parameters/variables as they evolve. This would assist in making informed decisions on the districts whose situation changes. • Fish restocking in most of the assessed districts, especially the Northern half of the country. • Strengthening of the livestock disease surveillance system in all areas. • Enhance home-grown school meals in all the districts. • Promote livelihood reconstruction and diversification. • Provision of water for both domestic and livestock use. Situation Monitoring and Update of Activities Climatic conditions: The analysis assumed a normal rainfall season for the projected period. Any change to this assumption will entail updating the food security situation for the projected period, as availability of casual labour during this period is dependent on the performance of the season. Commodity Prices: Prices have been higher than the previous consumption period and are assumed to gradually increase due to reduced production. As we approach the lean season, there is a need to continuously monitor these prices, especially for households that have already depleted their stocks and are now relying on the market. Government Policy: The current ban on grain exports has led to grain prices’ failure to increase sharply. Any change in the policy will negatively affect the food security situation. Pest and Diseases: There is a continued need to monitor diseases for mostly the Southern and Western parts of the country, which had already witnessed outbreaks. However, a reduced rainfall availability of pastures and water might lead to increased interaction of domestic and wild animals. Monitor nutrition status: With the depletion of food stocks, malnutrition is expected to increase, and hence active monitoring of nutrition levels is of paramount importance. REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 4 CURRENT IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION MAY-SEPT 2019 Key for the Map IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification (mapped Phase represents highest severity affecting at least 20% of the population) 1 - Minimal 2 - Stressed 3 - Crisis 4 - Emergency 5 - Famine Areas
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