POPULATION DYNAMICS of the AMAZONIAN PALM Mauritia Flexuosa: MODEL DEVELOPMENT and SIMULATION ANALYSIS
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POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE AMAZONIAN PALM Mauritia flexuosa: MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND SIMULATION ANALYSIS By JENNIFER A. HOLM A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2007 1 © 2007 Jennifer A. Holm 2 To my family who encouraged me at a young age, to keep striving for academic knowledge, and to my friends 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I gratefully thank my supervisory committee, Dr. Kainer and Dr. Bruna, and most importantly my committee chair, Dr. Wendell P. Cropper Jr. for their time and effort. I acknowledge the School of Natural Resources and Conservation, the School of Forest Resources and Conservation, and the Tropical Conservation and Development Program, the United States Forest Service, and the Fulbright Scholar Program for funding and guidance. Data collection in Ecuador was conducted with the help from Dr. Christopher Miller, Drs. Eduardo Asanza and Ana Cristina Sosa, Joaquin Salazar, and all the Siona people of Cuyabeno Faunal Reserve. Data collected in Peru was conducted with the help from Weninger Pinedo Flores, Exiles Guerra, Gerardo Bértiz, Dr. Jim Penn, and with the generosity of Paul and Dolly Beaver of the Tahuayo Lodge. Lastly, I would like to thank my parents for their support through my education experience, Heather, Chris, friends, and fellow graduate students. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...............................................................................................................4 LIST OF TABLES...........................................................................................................................7 LIST OF FIGURES .........................................................................................................................8 ABSTRACT...................................................................................................................................10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................12 2 POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE DIOECIOUS AMAZONIAN PALM Mauritia flexuosa: SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABLE HARVESTING ......................14 2.1 Introduction...................................................................................................................14 2.2 Methods.........................................................................................................................17 2.2.1 Study Site ..........................................................................................................17 2.2.2 Study Species ....................................................................................................17 2.2.3 Data Collection .................................................................................................18 2.2.4 Matrix Model Development and Parameter Estimation....................................19 2.3 Results...........................................................................................................................22 2.3.1 Density Dependence..........................................................................................22 2.3.2 Sustainable Harvest Scenarios ..........................................................................23 2.4 Discussion .....................................................................................................................25 2.4.1 Sustainable Harvest Scenarios ..........................................................................25 2.4.2 Implications for Management ...........................................................................26 3 GENETIC ALGORIHTM OPTIMIZATION FOR DEMOGRAPHIC PARAMETER CALIBRATION AND POPULATION TRAITS OF A HARVESTED TROPICAL PALM .....................................................................................................................................41 3.1 Introduction...................................................................................................................41 3.1.1 South American Palms and Consequences of Wild Harvesting .......................41 3.1.2 Matrix Modeling and Population Dynamics.....................................................42 3.1.3 Parameter Calibration........................................................................................43 3.1.4 Introduction to Genetic Algorithms ..................................................................44 3.1.5 Objectives..........................................................................................................45 3.2 Methods.........................................................................................................................45 3.2.1 Study Site: Ecuador...........................................................................................45 3.2.2 Study Site: Peru.................................................................................................46 3.2.3 Study Species Role in Peru ...............................................................................47 3.2.4 Palm Distribution and Matrix Model Development: ........................................48 3.2.5 GA Method Description....................................................................................48 5 3.3 Results...........................................................................................................................51 3.3.1 Genetic Algorithms ...........................................................................................51 3.3.2 Peru Size Class Distribution and Demographic Characteristics .......................54 3.3.3 Genetic Algorithm: Harvest History for Peru M. flexuosa Palm Population....55 3.4 Discussion .....................................................................................................................57 3.4.1 Genetic Algorithms ...........................................................................................57 3.4.2 Peru Size Class Distribution and Demographic Characteristics .......................59 3.4.3 Genetic Algorithm: Peru M. flexuosa Palm Population....................................60 3.5 Conclusions...................................................................................................................60 4 SUMMARY............................................................................................................................84 4.1 Applicability..................................................................................................................84 4.2 Future for M. flexuosa...................................................................................................84 4.3 Future Research.............................................................................................................85 APPENDIX: PERU GARDEN DATA FOR Mauritia flexuosa ...................................................86 LIST OF REFERENCES...............................................................................................................89 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .........................................................................................................96 6 LIST OF TABLES Table page 2-1 Observed size class distribution (based on height) of M. flexuosa....................................29 2-2 M. flexuosa (Ecuador) transition matrix ............................................................................30 2-3 Size class distribution for density independent (DI) and density dependent (DD) models after 100 yr. ...........................................................................................................31 2-4 Adult (stage 5 & 6) M. flexuosa transition probabilities....................................................32 3-1 M. flexuosa population size class distribution in Ecuador and Peru..................................62 3-2 Optimal Ecuador seedling parameters and carrying capacity using observed demographic parameters.. ..................................................................................................63 3-3 Observed range of the 13 non-seedling demographic transition probabilities. .................64 3-4 Observed and optimal Ecuador transition matrices. ..........................................................65 3-5 Optimal Ecuador seedling parameters and carrying capacity using optimal demographic parameters. ...................................................................................................66 3-6 Demographic traits for the Peru population in size classes 3-6 (palms that have developed trunks)...............................................................................................................67 3-7 GA estimates of harvest regimes consistent with the observed size class distribution. ....68 3-8 Peru’s harvesting history found using separate GAs which uses the Ecuador optimal demographic parameters to reach Peru’s observed population distribution. .....................69 7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 2-1 Elasticity for the M. flexuosa matrix population model.....................................................33 2-2 Density dependent model for M. flexuosa simulated over 500 yr.. ...................................34 2-3 Four simulated harvesting scenarios with various harvest frequencies and intensities for M. flexuosa. ..................................................................................................................35 2-4 The average number of female palms