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127222-REVISED-Lao-PDR-Economic-Monitor-Report-June-2018-For-Website.Pdf Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized WORLD BANK GROUP Public Disclosure Authorized COUNTRYLao PDR PARTNERSHIP Economic Monitor FRAMEWORK forSafeguarding the Lao People’s Stability: Democratic an Ongoing Republic, Agenda 2017-2021 Thematic Section: How can farmers get more for their rice and consumers pay less? June 2018 Public Disclosure Authorized Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice East Asia and Pacific Region Lao Economic Monitor - June 2018 book WB CPF short ENG 1 5/19/17 10:01 AM 2 Lao Economic Monitor - June 2018 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Eff ective as of June 13, 2018) Currency Unit = LAK (Lao kip) LAK 8,359 = US$1.00 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AEC ASEAN Economic Community MOIC Ministry of Industry and Commerce ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations MW Megawatt BOL Bank of Lao PDR NA National Assembly BOP Balance of Payments NEER Nominal Eff ective Exchange Rate CB Commercial Banks NFA Net Foreign Assets COD Commercial Operation Date NPL Nonperforming Loan CPI Consumer Price Index NSEDP National Socio-Economic Development Plan EAP East Asia and Pacifi c PIP Public Investment Projects EdL Electricité du Lao PPG Public and Public Guaranteed Debt EDL GEN EDL Generation PPP Purchasing Power Parity FAO Food and Agriculture Organization PV Present Value FDI Foreign Direct Investment REER Real Eff ective Exchange Rate GDP Gross Domestic Product SEZ Special Economic Zones GNI Gross National Income SME Small and Medium sized Enterprises GOL Government of Lao PDR SOCBs State-owned Commercial Banks IMF International Monetary Fund SOE State-owned Enterprise LAK Lao kip VAT Value Added Tax LNCCI Lao National Chamber of Commerce and Industry WBG World Bank Group MFI Microfi nance Institution WEO World Economic Outlook MOF Ministry of Finance YOY Year-on-year Regional Vice President : Victoria Kwakwa Country Director : Ellen A. Goldstein Practice Director : John Panzer Acting Country Manager: Viengsamay Srithirath Practice Manager : Deepak Mishra Lao Economic Monitor - June 2018 3i Acknowledgements The Lao PDR Economic Monitor June 2018 was prepared by a team comprising of Evgenij Najdov (Senior Country Economist), Somneuk Davading (Senior Economist), and Keomanivone Phimmahasay (Economist), Konesawang Ngardsayson (Trade Economist), Mombert Hoppe (Senior Trade Specialist) and Sergiy Zorya (Senior Agriculture Specialist). Part II, on the thematic topic on, “How can farmers get more for their rice and consumers pay less?” was led by Mombert Hoppe (Senior Trade Specialist) and Sergiy Zorya (Senior Agriculture Specialist) with inputs from Konesawang Ngardsayson (Trade Economist). The team worked under the guidance of Deepak Mishra (Practice Manager, Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice), Viengsamay Srithirath (Acting Country Manager) and Shabih Ali Mohib (Program Leader). We gratefully acknowledge Souksavanh Sombounkhanh’s and Hannah Louise Mcdonald-Moniz’s support of the report’s production and dissemination. The team would like to express its gratitude to the Government of Lao PDR, particularly the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Planning and Investment, Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Ministry of Energy and Mines, the Bank of Lao PDR and other line ministries, and representatives from the Lao National Chamber of Commerce and a number of businesses for sharing valuable views and inputs. The findings and interpretations expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. The Lao PDR Economic Monitor provides updates on macroeconomic developments and sectoral issues in the country. It is produced bi-annually and distributed widely to the Government agencies, development partners, the private sector, think tanks, civil society organizations, and academia. For comments and questions on this publication, please contact Keomanivone Phimmahasay ([email protected]). To be included in the email distribution list, please contact Souksavanh Sombounkhanh ([email protected]). 4ii Lao Economic Monitor - June 2018 Table of Contents Executive Summary........................................................................................................................................1 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook.......................................................................................1 Thematic Section: How can farmers get more for their rice and consumers pay less...................5 Part I: Recent Economic Developments......................................................................................................8 Global and regional economies performed well in 2017......................................................................8 The economy continues to grow robustly, despite a slight deceleration.........................................8 Good export performance helped narrowed the current account deficit.......................................13 However, the foreign reserves buffers remain low.............................................................................16 Inflation remains low, but started to pick up reflecting recovery of the oil price.........................16 Manufacturing and agriculture growth is expected to benefit the poor.........................................17 Macroeconomic management is gradually improving, but risks remain high...............................18 The fiscal deficit widened in 2017 due to strong public investment and some arrears clearance.....................................................................................................................18 Persistently high fiscal deficit resulted in high public debt level................................................21 Greater flexibility in the exchange rate helped reverse some of the earlier appreciation.......24 Credit growth continued to decelerate, despite a slight monetary loosening..........................25 A weakening portfolio and low profitability weigh on the banking sector................................29 Outlook and Risks...................................................................................................................................31 The near-term outlook still remains broadly favorable, but risks are growing..................33 Policy Considerations............................................................................................................................37 Addressing risks to macroeconomic vulnerabilities is a key priority...................................37 Achieving more sustainable and stable growth will require a genuine and vibrant private sector................................................................................................................................38 Part II: How can farmers get more for their rice and consumers pay less...........................................41 Summary..................................................................................................................................................41 Rice production exceeds domestic consumption, allowing for limited exports............................43 The rice value chain is highly fragmented, weakly coordinated and expensive............................43 High production and transaction costs drive consumer prices.......................................................47 Policy Considerations............................................................................................................................50 References....................................................................................................................................................52 Lao Economic Monitor - June 2018 iii5 Figures Figure 1: Global GDP growth......................................................................................................................................................8 Figure 2: Growth fell below historical average, but remained strong..............................................................................8 Figure 3: Growth remained robust...........................................................................................................................................9 Figure 4: Driven largely by industry sector............................................................................................................................9 Figure 5: Tourist arrivals declined in the last two years, except from non-ASEAN market.....................................10 Figure 6: Tourists from non-ASEAN countries increased.................................................................................................10 Figure 7: China investment in Lao PDR is largely concentrated in the energy sector................................................10 Figure 8: Most firms invest in services sector.....................................................................................................................12 Figure 9: Increasing employment opportunities for local labor.......................................................................................12 Figure 10: Exports continued to grow fast...........................................................................................................................13 Figure 11: The share of non-resource exports increased...................................................................................................13 Figure 12: Power exports continue to increase....................................................................................................................14
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