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Offshore RMB Express Issue 86 ‧ April 2021 Contents Offshore RMB Express Issue 86 ‧ April 2021 Contents Part 1 Market Review 1 Part 2 Policy and Peers Updates 4 Part 3 Special Topic 6 Part 4 Chart Book 15 Editors： Lynn Zhang Tel ：+852 2826 6586 Email : [email protected] Sharon Tsang Tel ：+852 2826 6763 Email: [email protected] Matthew Leung Tel：+ 852 3982 7177 Email: [email protected] Market Review The offshore RMB market maintains robust performance RMB exchange rate remained in a narrow two-way fluctuation pattern in March. Major offshore RMB business indicators decreased due to seasonal factors. In terms of bond market, FTSE Russell confirmed China Government Bonds to join WGBI index in October, which will be phased in over 36 months and expected given China a 5.25% weighting. The inclusion of China Government Bonds will further encourage capital inflow to China bond market and support RMB exchange rates. Bond Connect activities remained robust, with daily trading volume amounted to RMB 24.8 billion. PBOC issued RMB 5 billion of central bank bills in Hong Kong, and the issuance was well-received by investors in the offshore markets. RMB share of global currency reserves reached a record high, increasing for 8 consecutive quarters. I. RMB exchange rate remained in down 1.3% MoM, down 1.7% compared to narrow two-way fluctuation in March beginning of the year. CNH remained in narrow two-way fluctuation Under the circumstances of US economic around 6.5 in March. DXY index rose sharply recovery coming after China’s economic in the beginning of the month, which caused recovery, RMB’s recent strong trend may CNH to drop below 6.5, a new low since weaken if US treasury yields continue to rise 2021, mainly due to third wave of virus and the rebound of DXY index continue. It is outbreak in Europe. CNH then rose a few worth noting that although CNH depreciated consecutive trading days to 6.47. In late 0.4% against USD YTD, CNH remain strong March. US weekly jobless claims reached when comparing with other countries one-year low, consumer confidence index hit (appreciated 4% or above against JPY and one-year high, and new stimulus package CHF), as the China economy recovers from caused DXY index to reach 92.9, a four- Covid-19 quicker than other countries. In the months high, and caused CNH to weaken to medium term, demand on RMB settlements 6.55. As of March 31, the RMB’s central from trades would increase when the world parity rate against the USD closed at 6.5713, economies gradually recover, also FTSE down 1.5% MoM, down 1.9% compared to Russell confirms China Government Bonds beginning of the year. CNY closed at 6.5539, to join WGBI index in October, which would down 1.2% MoM, down 1.4% compared to provide certain level of support to the RMB beginning of the year. CNH closed at 6.5681, exchange rates, we expect RMB exchange Offshore RMB Express 1 Market Review rates to remain in two-way fluctuation, with behind USD (38.43%), EUR (37.13%), GBP possible increase in volatility. (6.57%) and JPY (3.18%). Due to Chinese holidays, RMB payments value decreased by Regarding the CNHHIBOR, as of March 31, 13% compared to the previous month, while the O/N, 1-week and 3-month CNH HIBOR in general all payment currencies decreased rates were 4.1503%, 3.0011% and 3.1757% by 4.2%. respectively. III. FTSE Russell confirms China II. Major offshore RMB business Government Bonds to join WGBI indicators decreased due to seasonal index in October. Bond Connect factors activities remained robust Major offshore RMB business indicators US treasury yield rose in March, some decreased due to seasonal factors. foreign investors changed to US bonds, According to HKMA, as of the end of slowing down foreign investors’ increasing February 2021, Hong Kong's RMB deposits holdings in China Government bonds. reached RMB 761 billion, above RMB 700 According to China Bond data, as of March billion for 4 consecutive months, but a 2021, foreign holdings in Chinese decrease of 4.6% compared to beginning of Government bonds reached RMB 2.04 trillion, the year. Hong Kong’s RMB loans balance decreasing around RMB 16.51 billion within was RMB 159 billion, remaining flat the month. The US-China interest rates compared to beginning of the year. spread may continue to narrow, causing According to PBOC, RMB cross-border trade fluctuation in capital inflow. On March 29, settlement was RMB 441.1 billion in FTSE Russell gave final approval for February, down by 24.1% compared to inclusion of China Government Bonds in its beginning of the year. According to HKICL, flagship bond index (WGBI) from Oct, 2021, RTGS turnover was RMB 35.5 trillion in which will be phased in over 36 months and March 2021, up by 40% compared to last expected given China’s 5.25% weighting. month, up by 17.1% compared to beginning WGBI covers bonds from over 20 countries, of the year. As of March 2021, dim sum bond where Japan (over 17%) constitutes the issuance amounted to RMB 35.75 billion. highest shares among Asian countries, and UK’s constitutes 5.48%. The inclusion of According to a SWIFT report in February China Government Bonds will further 2021, the RMB was the fifth most active encourage capital inflow to China bond currency for domestic and international market and support RMB exchange rates. payments by value, with a share of 2.2%, 2 Offshore RMB Express Market Review Bond Connect trading remained active in As of today, USD is still the largest reserve March, and trading tickets totalled 6723, currency, with its share of global currency while trading volume and average daily reserves falling 3 consecutive quarters to turnover reached RMB 570.3 billion and 59.02% of allocated reserves, due to USD RMB 24.8 billion respectively. Chinese depreciation. However, it remains uncertain government bonds and policy financial whether RMB share of global currency bonds are investors’ major focus, reserves will continue to rise. In 1Q 2021, accounting for 42% and 38% of monthly US treasury yield remained high, the DXY trading volume respectively. In the same index rebounded and the RMB exchange month, the scheme welcomed 27 new rates weakened as a result, which may investors, and expanded its coverage to 34 indicate a rebound in USD share of global jurisdictions across the globe with 2,450 reserves and a fall in RMB’s share. global institutional investors, including 76 of the top 100 global asset management companies. IV. RMB share of global currency reserves reached the highest since 2016 According to the latest statistics released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by the end of the fourth quarter, reserves held in RMB increased to USD 267.52 billion, or 2.25% of allocated reserves, increasing 8 consecutive quarters and reached record highs. Offshore RMB Express 3 Policy and Peers Updates China pilots cash-pooling service integrating local, foreign currency management On March 12, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) announced the launch of a pilot cash-pooling service for multinational companies that integrates domestic and foreign currency management in Shenzhen and Beijing to further facilitate the use of cross-border capital. The cash- pooling service will unify domestic and foreign currency management policies and allow multinationals to purchase foreign exchange at will within a certain limit, noting that the purchased funds can be deposited in the domestic primary account for external payment. The pilot program will also implement two-way macro-prudential management to improve the autonomy and capital efficiency of cross-border financing on the basis of steady and prudent operation, further facilitate the transfer and use of funds, and enhance operational and post-operational oversight. PBOC issues RMB5 billion central bank bills in Hong Kong On March 25, PBOC issued RMB5 billion six-month central bank bills in Hong Kong, with interest rates standing at 2.6%, 10 basis points less than last time. The issuance was well-received by investors in the offshore markets, with the total bid amount reaching about RMB25 billion, five times the amount in circulation. ISDA and CCDC: Use of RMB Bonds as Margin for Derivatives Transactions On March 25, the China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. and ISDA published a whitepaper —Use of RMB-denominated Chinese Government Bonds as Margin for Derivatives Transactions, that analyses the feasibility, challenges, prospects and suggestions relating to use of RMB bonds as initial margin. 4 Offshore RMB Express Policy and Peers Updates Measures unveiled to relax Hainan market access China rolled out 22 measures on April 8 aimed at further relaxing market access in the Hainan Free Trade Port, to facilitate the free flow of key production factors and cultivate industries with comparative advantages internationally, according to a document jointly released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce. New measures include supporting online sales of prescription drugs, helping the island develop an online games sector, exploring the delegation of the approval of online games to Hainan, supporting Hainan in building charging stations for new energy vehicles and pressing ahead with autonomous driving technologies and boosting the innovative development of homegrown high-end medical equipment. China interbank market launched CDS index On April 8, the China Foreign Exchange Trading System (CFETS) and the Shanghai Clearing House (SCH) jointly issued a notice, launching trading and clearing services for China’s first credit default swap (CDS). This marks the further expansion of the credit derivatives products, improving risk management for institutions selling CDS in the market.
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