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Essays on an ASEAN Optimal Currency Area University of New Orleans ScholarWorks@UNO University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations Dissertations and Theses Fall 12-17-2011 Essays on an ASEAN Optimal Currency Area Kathryn J. Whittaker Huff University of New Orleans, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td Part of the Finance Commons, International Economics Commons, Macroeconomics Commons, and the Other Economics Commons Recommended Citation Whittaker Huff, Kathryn J., "Essays on an ASEAN Optimal Currency Area" (2011). University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations. 1376. https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/1376 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by ScholarWorks@UNO with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Dissertation has been accepted for inclusion in University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UNO. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Essays on an ASEAN Optimal Currency Area A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of New Orleans in partial requirement of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Financial Economics by Kathryn Whittaker Huff B.A. University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 1978 M.S. University of Nebraska–Omaha, 1984 December, 2011 Table of Contents List of Figures and Tables ............................................................................................................................. iii Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ iv Chapter 1: G-PPP Tests and Qualitative Approaches ................................................................................... 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Background and Motivation of the Study ........................................................................................ 3 General Literature Review and Research Questions ....................................................................... 5 The Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Approach .................................................................... 10 Methodology and Hypotheses .......................................................................................... 13 Results and Conclusions for G-PPP Tests .......................................................................... 16 Qualitative Factors ......................................................................................................................... 35 Economic and Financial Openness and Factor Mobility ................................................... 35 Degree of Commodity Diversification: consumption and production patterns ............... 39 Similarity in inflation rates across countries ..................................................................... 40 Institutional, policy and regulation consistency and political factors .............................. 41 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 42 Chapter 2: Potential Monetary Policy Coordination Issues ...................................................................... 44 Introduction and Literature Review ............................................................................................... 44 Trends in Money Supply ................................................................................................................ 49 Money Multipliers .......................................................................................................................... 54 Trends in Velocity........................................................................................................................... 61 Trends in the Demand for Money .................................................................................................. 65 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 75 Chapter 3: ASEAN and The FDI Channel of Trade ..................................................................................... 78 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 78 Literature Review .......................................................................................................................... 84 Data and Methodology ................................................................................................................. 86 Models .......................................................................................................................................... 88 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 91 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 94 References .................................................................................................................................................. 97 Data Sources ............................................................................................................................................. 105 Appendix ................................................................................................................................................... 106 Vita ............................................................................................................................................................ 107 ii List of Figures and Tables Chapter 1: G-PPP Tests and Qualitative Approaches Table 1.1: Unit root tests for real exchange rates ......................................................................... 15 Figure 1.1: Real exchange rates for ASEAN+3 (2000-2010) ........................................................... 17 Figure 1.2: Real exchange rates for Select ASEAN+3 (2000-2010) ................................................ 18 Table 1.2: Johansen-Juselius cointegration tests for ASEAN + 3 countries (Real exchange rates vis-à-vis USD) .................................................................................. 19 Table 1.3: Johansen-Juselius cointegration tests for subset of ASEAN + 3 countries (Real exchange rates vis-à-vis USD) .................................................................................. 21 Table 1.4: Johansen-Juselius cointegration tests for subset of ASEAN + 3 countries (Real exchange rates vis-à-vis USD) .................................................................................. 24 Table 1.5: Johansen-Juselius cointegration tests for ASEAN + 3 countries (real exchange rates vis-à-vis KRW) .................................................................................. 26 Table 1.6: Johansen-Juselius cointegration tests for subset of ASEAN + 3 countries (real exchange rates vis-à-vis KRW) .................................................................................. 28 Table 1.7: Johansen-Juselius cointegration tests for subset of ASEAN (real exchange rates vis-à-vis KRW) .................................................................................. 30 Table 1.8: Speed of Adjustment ..................................................................................................... 32 Table 1.9: Economic Openness (Exports/GDP) .............................................................................. 36 Table 1.10: Financial Openness (Chinn/Ito Index) ........................................................................ 38 Table 1.11: Structure of Output (2009) ......................................................................................... 40 Table 1.12: Implicit GDP Deflator .................................................................................................. 41 Chapter 2 : Potential Monetary Policy Coordination Issues Table 2.1: Selected Average Financial Indicators for ASEAN+3 (%) .............................................. 50 Table 2.2: Average Ratios of Domestic Claims for ASEAN+3 (%) .................................................. 53 Table 2.3: Money ratios and money multipliers for ASEAN+3 ...................................................... 56 Table 2.4: Factors affecting domestic liquidity for ASEAN+3 ........................................................ 60 Table 2.5: Income velocity for ASEAN+3 ........................................................................................ 63 Table 2.6A: Regression results for narrow money (M1) for ASEAN+3 .......................................... 68 Table 2.6B: Regression results for broad money (M2) for ASEAN++3 ........................................... 70 Table 2.6C: Regression results for currency (C) for ASEAN+3 ........................................................ 71 Table 2.7 Unit root tests for variables ..........................................................................................
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