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Death of the Middle – Myth Or Reality?

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Death of the Middle – Myth Or Reality? Death of the Middle – Myth or reality? “in a political system that demands compromise and accommodation to bring about change, the center is considered vital to the moderate, bipartisan public policymaking generally preferred by the american public. absent a political center, increased partisanship and ideological polarization are inevitable - and sure to feed public distrust of and distaste for politicians and the political process.” Sarah a. Binder, 1996 WHAT KiND OF ”MoDERATE” WoUlD YOU PREFER ... a DeMoCRAT WHO SoUNDS LIKe a REPUBLICaN, OR a REPUBLICaN WHO SoUNDS LIKe a DeMoCRAT? Kandidatafhandling STUDERENDE Andreas Grambye-Jensen Anna Sofie Riise-Knudsen VEJLEDER OG INSTITUT Niels Bjerre-Poulsen Syddansk Universitet “Death of the Middle – Myth or Reality?” Cand.ling.merc. Juni 2011 Copenhagen Business School Antal sider: 116 Antal tegn: 206.629 Resumé Formålet med dette speciale var at belyse hvorledes de moderate politikere i den amerikanske Kongres mere eller mindre er ”uddøde”. I den forbindelse har det været vigtigt at kigge på den amerikanske omtegning af distrikter, som finder sted hvert tiende år. For, at dette kan gøres, laver det amerikanske folkeoptællingsbureau en optælling af befolkningen, som delstatsregeringerne derved baserer denne omtegning af distrikter på. Den proces, der foregår fra optælling frem til at repræsentanterne bliver valgt til den amerikanske Kongres, er det fokus opgaven har. I den forbindelse er der blevet analyseret og diskuteret de elementer, der kan have haft en indvirkning på, hvorfor omtegningen af distrikterne har en indflydelse på, hvorfor moderaterne er en uddøende race i den amerikanske Kongres. På baggrund af optællingen, som det amerikanske folkeoptællingsbureau foretager, bliver der lavet en fordeling af distrikter og derved også repræsentanter. Når denne fordeling har fundet sted, kan den reelle omtegning foretages. Omtegningen indebærer forskellige regelsæt fremsat af den amerikanske forfatning, den amerikanske højesteret, samt delstatsregeringernes forfatninger. Ofte betyder det at følge én regel, at man kan komme til at bryde en anden, hvorfor mange af disse omtegningskort ender i den amerikanske højesteret. Årsagerne til dette er også fordi, der oftest sidder et parti (det demokratiske parti eller det republikanske parti) og styrer processen. Derfor har mange delstater i de seneste tyve år besluttet sig for at integrere en uafhængig kommission, der kan varetage denne proces. For at kunne lave en grundig analyse af de fornævnte problemstillinger, der kan opstå, har det været relevant at kigge på en enkelt delstat, Texas. Delstaten Texas er et udmærket eksempel på, hvor galt, det kan gå, når et parti sidder på hele magten. Texas har altid været mærket af, at der kun har været et parti, der har siddet på magten, dog med det republikanske partis overtagelse af magten sås der en helt ny dimension af kontrol. Efter at det republikanske medlem af den amerikanske Kongres, Tom DeLay fik kontrol over omtegningsprocessen blev det tydeligt, hvor meget og i hvor høj grad, der var blevet manipuleret med kortet. Siddende medlemmer af Kongressen ser ud til at have en uforholdsmæssig stor fordel, når de stiller op til valg overfor modstandere fra deres eget parti og modstandere fra andre partier (dette gør sig også gældende hvis det er modstandere fra ”uafhængige partier”). Denne fordel kommer til udtryk ved primærvalg, hvor det forventes, at kandidaterne, der stiller op, holder sig til partiets politiske platform. De, der er moderate holder sig knap så meget til denne platform, hvorfor de i mange tilfælde bliver ”luget ud”. Dette gør det svært, for de moderate at ”overleve”, da de ved, at det vil have følger. I USA eksisterer der valglove som til tider besværliggør det at afgive sin stemme for bestemte grupper af vælgere (kvinder, enlige, unge og folk af latinamerikansk afstamning). Disse vælgere udgør en stor del af vælgergruppen, marginalvælgeres som oftest stemmer på de moderate politikere i det demokratiske parti. Dette tovtrækkeri mellem vælgere og politikere, samt naturligvis aktuelle emner i det politiske regi, kan resultere i, at vælgerne flytter parti. Dette resultat betyder, at der næsten altid vil være ét parti, der sidder på magten, og fordi, partierne igennem de sidste mange år lægger vægt på parti platformen, vil de moderate mere eller mindre være en uddøende race i Kongressen, og de, der er tilbage vil være næsten usynlige. Death of the Middle Table of Contents Chapter One............................................................................................................................... 4 1.0 Introduction................................................................................................................. 4 1.0.1 Thesis Outline .................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Motivation.................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Problem Statement.................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Terminology.............................................................................................................. 11 1.4 Methodology............................................................................................................. 12 1.4.1 Qualitative vs. Quantitative ............................................................................ 12 1.4.2 Literature Review............................................................................................. 13 1.4.3 Data Retrieval................................................................................................... 15 1.4.4 Delimitation....................................................................................................... 16 Chapter Two............................................................................................................................. 17 2.0 Reapportionment and the Census ........................................................................ 17 2.1 The Negatives and Positives of Apportionment.................................................. 20 2.2 Revolutionizing Apportionment.............................................................................. 23 2.3 Summary................................................................................................................... 25 Chapter Three.......................................................................................................................... 27 3.0 Gerrymandering and Redistricting ........................................................................ 27 3.1 Majority-Minority Districts ....................................................................................... 28 3.2 Compactness ........................................................................................................... 30 3.3 Contiguous Districts ................................................................................................ 33 3.4 Cracking, Packing & Tacking................................................................................. 34 1 3.5 Summary................................................................................................................... 37 Chapter Four ............................................................................................................................ 39 4.0 Trend of Independency........................................................................................... 39 4.1 California................................................................................................................... 39 4.2 Washington............................................................................................................... 42 4.3 Idaho.......................................................................................................................... 44 4.4 New Jersey............................................................................................................... 45 4.5 High and Low Growth States; Sunbelt vs. Rustbelt ........................................... 48 4.6 Summary................................................................................................................... 54 Chapter Five............................................................................................................................. 56 5.0 Texas – Rorschach Redistricting and Rangers .................................................. 56 5.1 The History of the Texas Legislative Redistricting Board.................................. 56 5.2 Redistricting Timeline.............................................................................................. 57 5.3 Racial Gerrymandering in Texas........................................................................... 60 5.4 DeLay’s Plan ............................................................................................................ 65 5.5 PACs and Walkouts ................................................................................................ 66 5.6 The US Supreme Court Weighs In ....................................................................... 69 5.7 Consequences of the 2003 Redistricting Process................................................... 71 5.7 Texas Today............................................................................................................. 71 5.8 Summary..................................................................................................................
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