Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM (Retd) | 1 Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh: Geopolitical Implications Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM (Retd), Consultant, VIF © Vivekananda International Foundation Published in 2021 by Vivekananda International Foundation 3, San Martin Marg | Chanakyapuri | New Delhi - 110021 Tel: 011-24121764 | Fax: 011-66173415 E-mail:
[email protected] Website: www.vifindia.org ISBN: 978-81-952151-3-3 Follow us on Twitter | @vifindia Facebook | /vifindia Cover Image: Armored personnel carriers of the Russian peacekeeping forces drive along a road near Lachin in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, on November 13, 2020. | Reuters All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Contents Foreword 5 Abstract 7 Introduction 9 Part 1: Background 13 Part 2: Clash of Civilisations? 22 Part 3: The Geopolitical Dimension 25 Part 4: The Cease Fire Deal 30 Part 5: The Stakeholders 44 Conclusion 85 Foreword The region of Nagorno-Karabakh is sandwiched between Iran, Turkey, Russia and Georgia. It lies at an intersection of political, ethnic and religious borders. At stake in this conflict is Russian, Turkish and Iranian regional influence, an ethnic battle with memories of genocide and a religious component of Christian Armenia, Shia Azerbaijan and Sunni Turkey. Samuel Huntington’s theory of “Clash of Civilizations?” has come into focus. Religiously, Azerbaijan is more closely related to Iran as both are Shia-majority countries, unlike the Sunni-majority Turkey.