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Radiation Oncology Areas of Need: Cancer Incidence Projections 2014-2024

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Radiation Oncology Areas of Need: Cancer Incidence Projections 2014-2024 Radiation oncology areas of need: cancer incidence projections 2014–2024 presents cancer incidence Radiation oncology areas of need projections at the jurisdictional health planning region level for 2014 to 2024. These projections were developed cancer incidence projections 2014–2024 specifically for Australian Government Department of Health planning purposes. CANCER SERIES NO. 85 CANCER SERIES Number 85 Radiation oncology areas of need Cancer incidence projections 2014–2024 Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Canberra Cat. no. CAN 82 The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare is a major national agency which provides reliable, regular and relevant information and statistics on Australia’s health and welfare. The Institute’s mission is authoritative information and statistics to promote better health and wellbeing. © Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014 This product, excluding the AIHW logo, Commonwealth Coat of Arms and any material owned by a third party or protected by a trademark, has been released under a Creative Commons BY 3.0 (CC–BY 3.0) licence. Excluded material owned by third parties may include, for example, design and layout, images obtained under licence from third parties and signatures. We have made all reasonable efforts to identify and label material owned by third parties. You may distribute, remix and build upon this work. However, you must attribute the AIHW as the copyright holder of the work in compliance with our attribution policy available at <www.aihw.gov.au/copyright/>. The full terms and conditions of this licence are available at <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/>. Enquiries relating to copyright should be addressed to the Head of the Media and Strategic Engagement Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, GPO Box 570, Canberra ACT 2601. This publication is part of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s Cancer series. A complete list of the Institute’s publications is available from the Institute’s website <www.aihw.gov.au>. ISSN 1039-3307 ISBN 978-1-74249-588-0 Suggested citation Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2014. Radiation oncology areas of need: cancer incidence projections 2014–2024. Cancer series no. 85. Cat. no. CAN 82. Canberra: AIHW. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Board Chair Director Dr Andrew Refshauge David Kalisch Any enquiries about or comments on this publication should be directed to: Media and Strategic Engagement Unit Australian Institute of Health and Welfare GPO Box 570 Canberra ACT 2601 Tel: (02) 6244 1032 Email: [email protected] Published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare This publication is printed in accordance with ISO 14001 (Environmental Management Systems) and ISO 9001 (Quality Management Systems). The paper is sourced from sustainably managed certified forests. Please note that there is the potential for minor revisions of data in this report. Please check the online version at <www.aihw.gov.au> for any amendments. Contents Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................................. iv Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................................... v Summary .............................................................................................................................................. vi 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 Background ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Methods ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Limitations and assumptions ....................................................................................................... 3 2 All cancer projections to 2024...................................................................................................... 5 National projections ....................................................................................................................... 5 State and territory projections ...................................................................................................... 6 New South Wales .................................................................................................................... 6 Victoria ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Queensland ............................................................................................................................ 10 Western Australia ................................................................................................................. 12 South Australia ...................................................................................................................... 14 Tasmania ................................................................................................................................ 16 Australian Capital Territory ................................................................................................ 18 Northern Territory ................................................................................................................ 18 Appendix A Statistical methods ................................................................................................. 19 Modelling jurisdictional trends to HPRs .................................................................................. 19 Special case of prostate cancer incidence trends ...................................................................... 21 Appendix B Data sources and classifications .......................................................................... 24 Australian Cancer Database ....................................................................................................... 24 Medicare Benefits Schedule ........................................................................................................ 24 Population data ............................................................................................................................ 25 References ............................................................................................................................................ 32 List of tables ........................................................................................................................................ 34 iii Acknowledgments This report was prepared by staff in the Cancer and Screening Unit of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. The main author was Mardi Ellis, with valuable analytical contributions made by Brett Davis, Melissa Goodwin, Chun Chen, Justin Harvey, Mark Short and David Whitelaw. The authors acknowledge the assistance of the state and territory health departments for providing geographical boundary information, and that of the state and territory cancer registries for providing incidence data, and for permission to publish state and territory estimates. This project was funded by the Radiation Oncology and Optometry Section of the Australian Government Department of Health. iv Abbreviations ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics ACT Australian Capital Territory AIHW Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Health Australian Government Department of Health HPR health planning region MBS Medicare Benefits Schedule NSW New South Wales NT Northern Territory PSA prostate-specific antigen Qld Queensland SA South Australia SLA Statistical Local Area Tas Tasmania Vic Victoria WA Western Australia v Summary Cancer incidence in Australia is projected to rise due to an expected increase in both the underlying cancer rates and in the Australian population over the age of 65. As a result, planning for cancer treatment services must anticipate future trends and age structures. This report presents projections of the number of new cases of cancer (all cancers combined) diagnosed in Australia from 2014 to 2024, by state and territory health planning regions. Projections of the number of new cancer cases for each health planning region have been calculated using trends in cancer incidence from 1997 to 2010—the latter being the most recent year for which national cancer incidence data are available—and population projections provided by the Australian Government Department of Health. Key findings In 2024, an estimated 169,648 new cases of cancer are expected to be diagnosed in Australia, an average annual increase of 3.3% per year from 2010 (Table 2.1). The proportional increase is expected to vary between states and territories. The largest increase is expected in Western Australia (5.0% per year), followed by the Australian Capital Territory (4.4%), Queensland (4.2%), the Northern Territory (3.9%) and Victoria (3.2%). New South Wales (2.5% per year), Tasmania (2.3%) and South Australia (1.9%) are expected to have the smallest annual proportional increases in cancer incidence rates. Important notes Projections are, by nature, estimates at best and are subject to a number of limitations and assumptions. The combined impact of these is such that the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) presents these projections only as approximate
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