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Mapping Africa's Islamic Economy

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Mapping Africa's Islamic Economy Mapping Africa’s Islamic Economy A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit Mauritania Niger Senegal Chad Sudan Djibouti Guinea Nigeria Gambia Cote Ethiopia d’Ivoire Ghana Cameroon Uganda Kenya Tanzania Zambia Mozambique Mauritius Botswana South Africa Sponsored by Pantone 303 (C=100, M=11, Y=0, K=74) - RGB (R=0, G=63, B=95) CMYK (C=17, M=38, Y=81, K=5) - RGB (R=202, G=153, B=74) Mapping Africa’s Islamic Economy Contents About this research 2 Executive Summary 3 Chapter 1: Introduction 5 Chapter 2: Financing Africa 8 Chapter 3: The halal economy: A lucrative, but invisible market 13 Chapter 4: Supporting Africa’s Islamic economy 15 Conclusion 19 1 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015 Mapping Africa’s Islamic Economy About this research “Mapping Africa’s Islamic economy” is a report by The l Basheer Oshodi, group head of non-interest banking, Economist Intelligence Unit. The findings are based on desk Sterling Bank research and interviews with experts, conducted by The l Ndako Mijindadi, portfolio manager, Lotus Capital Economist Intelligence Unit. The research was commissioned by Dubai Chamber. l Nabeel Shariff, director, Serendipity Travel l Ebi Lockhat, public relations officer, South African National The Economist Intelligence Unit would like to thank Halaal Authority the following experts who participated in the interview programme: l Merisha Kassie, director, financial services, EY Centre in Islamic Finance for Africa l Baba Yunus Muhammad, president, Africa Islamic Economic Foundation l Ali Mohamed, head of Africa, Qatar Financial Centre l Bilal Jakhura, director, Centre of Islamic Economics and The Economist Intelligence Unit bears sole responsibility for Finance, South Africa the content of this report. The findings and views expressed in l Mushtak Parker, editor, Islamic Banking magazine the report do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor. Eleanor Whitehead and Gillian Parker authored the report. l Mouhamadou Lamine Mbacke, CEO, Institute of Islamic Melanie Noronha and Adam Green were the editors. Finance l Saidu Babayo, head of non-interest banking, Stanbic IBTC Bank 2 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015 Mapping Africa’s Islamic Economy Executive summary The “Islamic economy” refers to a wide range issuance because of technical and legal hurdles. of commercial activities and geographies, from There is limited knowledge of Islamic finance the financial centres of Kuala Lumpur to the instruments among end-users and policymakers. markets of Niger, and spanning everything from Greater support from multilateral development sharia-compliant bonds to halal food, travel agencies could help. and fashion. The global market was worth over l Islamic finance has a presence in 21 African US$3.6trn in 2013. countries, from established systems like Sudan through to new entrants like Uganda. As the world’s fastest-growing population, Sudan has the most experience in formalised with a large Muslim contingent, Africa’s place Islamic finance, dating back to the 1970s. South in the global Islamic economy is a subject Africa has taken significant measures to advance worthy of investigation. Islam and Christianity its Islamic finance system since 2011, as have are the two dominant religions in Africa, the Nigeria, Senegal and Kenya. Other countries are population of which will more than double, to in the exploratory phase, including Ethiopia, 1.9bn, by 2050. Almost every country will see a Uganda, Zambia and Mozambique. significant increase in their Muslim population, driving demand for sharia-compliant products l “Islamic economy” activity does not depend and services. This report maps Africa’s Islamic on Muslim-majority populations. While economy, assesses growth trends and challenges countries such as the populous Nigeria stand faced and proposes measures to nurture the out as potential markets due to population segment. size and religious makeup, interest in Islamic economy goods and services is not reliant on Key findings majority or even large Muslim populations. l Sukuk are an attractive tool for financing Non-Muslims are among the consumers, and African infrastructure. Africa faces a severe governments of non-Muslim countries identify infrastructure deficit but government budgets economic potential in halal sectors and sukuk. have come under pressure due to low commodity l Political tensions mean that some prices. Sharia-compliant bonds, or sukuk, have populations are concerned about Islamic been used in five countries to raise capital. economy discourse. While sharia simply refers However, there are long time lags to sukuk to Islamic law, the word can be associated with 3 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015 Mapping Africa’s Islamic Economy certain practices of extremist groups in hotspots around Africa, which may cause concern and confusion among populations. Current religious tensions may be a hindrance to Islamic economy reforms and educational campaigns could help promote public understanding. 4 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015 Mapping Africa’s Islamic Economy 1 Introduction Africa is the world’s largest untapped growth 75.7m in 2010; by far the largest increase in market for “Islamic” commerce, spanning Islamic Sub-Saharan Africa. By then it will be a Muslim- finance (banking, insurance, bonds and capital majority country. “Already we have at least 35m markets) and halal (sharia-compliant goods and adult Nigerians who are interested in Islamic services). This is the result of both “positive” finance,” says Basheer Oshodi, group head of trends—a rapidly growing population, increased non-interest banking at Sterling Bank, a Nigerian consumer spending and robust GDP growth—and lender. “It could be more than that if we count economic need. Africa has a huge infrastructure non-Muslims who are interested in Islamic deficit and governments need tools for raising finance. The market is absolutely huge.” capital. While sharia-compliant goods and services Islam is a dominant religion on the continent, appeal to the values of the Muslim population, along with Christianity, which it pre-dates by large Muslim populations are not essential centuries. Islam arrived in Africa in the 11th for a vibrant Islamic economy sector. Even in century. From the ancient cities of the Sahel countries with a low proportion of Muslims, the to the modern mosques of coastal capitals, values and principles of Islamic financing—such Sub-Saharan Africa is now home to over 250m as investment products that avoid alcohol or Muslims, projected to grow to over 385m by gambling, and no-interest lending—appeal to 2030.1 Most live in West Africa, which hosts investors seeking ethical schemes or banking 160m Muslims. That will rise to 257m Muslims by customers seeking alternative products. 2030. By then, the region will account for 67% of Muslims in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, some investors are seeking less risky investment The impact on demand for Islamic economy and Islamic financial institutions have a strong activity will be sizeable. “The region’s Muslim financial performance record in recent years population represents a potential customer base worldwide, partly due to high capitalisation that no one can afford to ignore,” argues Baba rates, and their avoidance of speculative Yunus Muhammad, president of the Ghana-based activity. Moreover, countries with small Muslim Africa Islamic Economic Foundation (AFRIEF). populations are looking to Islamic economy “Unlike most Western countries, 40% of West activities as part of a commercial strategy, Africa’s Muslim population is under 25 years old. notably South Africa, whose industries have now The youthful population is starting to achieve a positioned the country as a halal goods export certain level of affluence and has the potential to hub for the continent. be a vibrant customer base for decades to come.” The second driver of Africa’s Islamic economy Nigeria stands out. The Washington-based Pew is the infrastructure need. Inadequate supplies Research Centre projects that by 2030 there will of roads, railways and ports, insufficient energy 1 Pew Research Centre be 116.8m Nigerians practicing Islam, up from supplies and housing shortages are among the 5 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015 Mapping Africa’s Islamic Economy challenges facing the continent. An urbanising social infrastructures, encompassing housing, population—forecast to grow from 38% of healthcare, and utilities. Sukuk are of growing the total population in 2015 to 45% in 2030 interest to governments trying to raise capital for and to 55% by 20502—will drive demand for such shortfalls. Figure 1 Muslim population by country (m) 2010 2030 forecast % of total population, 2010 % of total population, 2030 76 48 Nigeria 117 52 16 98 Niger 32 98 12 96 Senegal 19 96 12 92 Mali 19 92 10 59 Burkina Faso 16 59 9 84 Guinea 14 84 8 37 Cote d’Ivoire 13 40 4 72 Sierra Leone 7 73 4 16 Ghana 6 18 3 99 Mauritania 5 99 2 25 Benin 4 25 3 95 Gambia 2 95 29 34 Ethiopia 44 34 13 30 Tanzania 19 26 9 99 Somalia 16 99 4 12 Uganda 7 11 3 7 Kenya 5 9 2 37 Eritrea 3 37 6 56 Chad 10 53 4 18 Cameroon 5 19 5 23 Mozambique 8 23 2 13 Malawi 3 13 Source: Pew Research Centre. Only countries with a Muslim population above 1m represented in graph 2 UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanisation Prospects, 2014. 6 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015 Mapping Africa’s Islamic Economy Figure 2 Map of Islamic finance activity in Sub-Saharan Africa Senegal
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