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Exploring the Motivations of Voters Who Switched from the ACDP and COPE to the DA in the 2011 Local Government Election

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Vote-switching in South Africa: Exploring the motivations of voters who switched from the ACDP and COPE to the DA in the 2011 Local Government Election. Meshay Lee Moses 2756089 Thesis Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of POLITICS (M.Admin) in the Department of Political Studies, University of the Western Cape Supervisor: Dr Cherrel Africa May 2014 Keywords: South Africa, democracy, political representation, elections, opposition parties, voting behaviour, vote-switching, African Christian Democratic Party, Congress of the People, Democratic Alliance. i Abstract The 2011 election results showed that most opposition parties are becoming less popular among the South African electorate. This study explores the motivations of voters who chose to switch their vote or support from the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) and the Congress of the People (COPE) to another opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA) in the 2011 local government election. The study was informed by a qualitative research approach. Accordingly, an interview schedule was utilized as a research tool. This schedule contained questions prepared in order to acquire the necessary insight of voters who previously supported the ACDP and COPE (in the 2009 general elections) and moved to the DA in the 2011 local government election. In addition, interviews were conducted with party representatives from the ACDP and COPE in order to gain further insights into their perceptions of the key reasons for their party’s poor performance in this election. Popkin’s integrated theory is used as a basis to make sense of the behaviour and movement of voters during the 2011 local government election. Popkin (1991) argues that voters utilise low-information rationality or “gut-reasoning” when evaluating political parties, their candidates and the issues they present. As will be shown throughout this thesis, Popkin’s approach, where voters combine various sets of information obtained through daily life, the media and political campaigns, best explains the dynamics in the research findings. Based on the research findings, it appears that Popkin’s approach is the most useful for understanding the reasons for the voter migration to the DA in the 2011 election. The research findings indicate that the majority of opposition voters who switched over to the DA were mainly dissatisfied with the (poor) leadership and (bad) governance of the ruling party, the ANC. With the realisation that their own parties (ACDP and COPE) were electorally too weak to unseat the ANC, they decided to withdraw their support and vote for the strongest opposition party, the DA. Ultimately, these opposition voters developed very negative perceptions and views about the ACDP and COPE as a possible ‘government in ii waiting’. The research findings further reveal that the DA’s leadership and governance (specifically in the City of Cape Town) seemed more attractive than other opposition parties in this election. In addition, the findings reveal that the DA had a strong electoral presence in most provinces and had sufficient access to the media to influence vote choices. Moreover, the study found that opposition voters were more mobile and flexible in terms of their voting behaviour and political choices in the 2011 election. Those who previously supported the ACDP and COPE in 2009 found themselves switching off their traditional partisan predispositions (for example Christian ideology) and shifted to a rational voting behaviour. They paid attention to party leadership, party images, governance and service delivery, and election campaigns. The findings further show that some voters also took into account the media’s responses to the parties’ election strategies. iii Declaration I, the undersigned, hereby declare that the dissertation entitled “Vote-switching in South Africa: Exploring the motivations of voters who switched from the ACDP and COPE to the DA in the 2011 Local Government Election” is my own work, that it has not been submitted before for any other degree or examination in any other university, and that all sources I have utilized or quoted have been indicated and acknowledged as complete references. Meshay Lee Moses _____________________ May 2014 iv Dedication In loving memory of my late grandfather Theodore Peter Moses. I miss you dearly. v Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere appreciation to everyone who supported me during the course of my studies. I owe a great debt of gratitude to my supervisor, Dr Cherrel Africa, for her professional guidance and mentorship since 2010. Dr Africa served as the ‘reader’ and guide for all earlier versions of this dissertation and provided invaluable and detailed feedback. Her continued encouragement through the years of this research project is greatly appreciated. I am also thankful to all the individuals who voluntarily participated in the research. Needless to say, the completion of this dissertation would not have been possible without your valuable insights. God bless you all! On a more personal note, I wish to express my greatest gratitude to my mother, Lucinda Moses Harker, and grandmother, Margarita Moses, for their constant prayers and support. Completing this dissertation would not have been possible without the love and encouragement of other family members and this include: Venecia Moses Abner and Annelize Moses Isaacs. Thank you for everything! Furthermore, my gratitude goes to all my friends and colleagues (past and present) for their ‘words of wisdom’ and understanding. In this regard, I am especially grateful to Jacob Cloete for his research assistance offered to me. I thank you Jacob for the motivation and constant guidance throughout this journey. I also wish to express a special thank you to Reagan Mathys for proofreading my work. Your suggestions for changes undoubtedly made this dissertation more coherent. I thank you Reagan for being my pillar of strength. I would like to thank Dr Kelvin Mambwe (Linguistics) for the final editing of my work. Your professional assistance is greatly appreciated. vi I am also very grateful to the board of the Mellon Scholarship that I was awarded in 2010 and 2011 to complete my Post Graduate studies. I would like to say thank you to Reagan Allen for helping me to get in contact with existing DA members that assisted me in the fieldwork process. Above all, I would like to give all honour and praise to my loving God who made everything possible. vii List of abbreviations ACDP - African Christian Democratic Party AIM - African Independent Movement ANC: - African National Congress ANCYL - African National Congress Youth League AZAPO - Azanian People’s Organisation COPE - Congress of the People CODESA - Convention for a Democratic South Africa COSATU - Congress of South African Trade Unions DP / DA: - Democratic Party / Democratic Alliance EISA - Electoral Institute of South Africa ID - Independent Democrats IEC - Independent Electoral Commission IFP - Inkatha Freedom Party FF+ - Freedom Front Plus MF - Minority Front MNF - Multiparty Negotiations Forum NA - National Assembly NFP - New Freedom Party NP / NNP - National Party / New National Party PAC - Pan Africanist Congress PDP - Peace and Development Party PR - Proportional Representation RPPF - Represented Political Parties’ Fund SACP - South African Communist Party UDF - United Democratic Front UDM - United Democratic Movement UCDP - United Christian Democratic Party viii List of tables Table 1: Primary functions of political parties in democracy .................................................. 26 Table 2: Political parties’ performance in four elections at national level .............................. 55 Table 3: Change in party support between 2006 and 2011 local elections on PR ballot ......... 68 Table 4: Amounts allocated to political parties in 1999, 2004 and 2009 elections ................. 71 ix Table of Contents Title page. ................................................................................................................................... i Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... ii Declaration ................................................................................................................................ iv Dedication ................................................................................................................................ .. v Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... vi List of abbreviations .............................................................................................................. viii List of tables .............................................................................................................................. ix Chapter One: Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Background .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.4 The basis for the study: weak opposition parties in South Africa ....................................... 5 1.5 Research aims .....................................................................................................................
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