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Building up a Strategy for De-Balkanizing the Balkans : Stability and Prosperity in South Eastern Europe

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Building up a Strategy for De-Balkanizing the Balkans : Stability and Prosperity in South Eastern Europe Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2002-12 Building up a strategy for de-Balkanizing the Balkans : stability and prosperity in South Eastern Europe Xhaferaj, Ferdinand Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/3149 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS BUILDING UP A STRATEGY FOR DE-BALKANIZING THE BALKANS: STABILITY AND PROSPERITY IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE by Ferdinand Xhaferaj December 2002 Thesis Advisor: Donald Abenheim Second Reader: Robert Looney Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2002 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: Building up a Strategy for De -Balkanizing the 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Balkans: Stability and Prosperity in South Eastern Europe 6. AUTHOR(S) Ferdinand Xhaferaj 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Three years after the Kosovo conflict, the Balkans remains politically and socially unstable as well as economically depressed. Even though Milosevic has gone, he has left behind him a legacy of destruction and distrust. The mechanisms, instruments, and models of international relations that provide a framework for producing security and promoting development such as creation of alliances, diplomacy, and models of security communities, did not produce the expected results. Therefore, a high potential for renewed conflict remains acute. One of the main reasons that Western Powers adopted a reluctant attitude towards the Balkans crises, or did too little too late, was misunderstanding the nature and the origin of the con flicts from the beginning. Without knowing where the region is coming from, it is impossible to construct where the region should be heading. This thesis outlines a brief history of the region that provides the context for the current situation. It demo nstrates the impact of ethnicity, religion, language, culture, and economics in shaping the conflicts in the Balkans. Furthermore, it analyzes the current security and economic situation in the region. Finally, it provides some security and economic recommendations, which offer guidelines for implementing what the author considers the right path for De-Balkanizing the Balkans. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Balkans, South Eastern Europe, Conflict, Transition, Stability 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 107 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2 -89) Prescribed by AN SI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited BUILDING UP A STRATEGY FOR DE-BALKANIZING THE BALKANS: STABILITY AND PROSPERITY IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE Ferdinand Xhaferaj Civilian, Albanian Parliament B.A., Tirana State University, 1988 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degrees of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS and MASTER OF ARTS IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2002 Author: Ferdinand Xhaferaj Approved by: Donald Abenheim Thesis Advisor Robert Looney Second Reader James Wirtz Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Three years after the Kosovo conflict, the Balkans remains politically and socially unstable as well as economically depressed. Even though Slobodan Milosevic has gone, he has left behind him a legacy of destruction and distrust. The mechanisms, instruments, and models of international relations that provide a framework for producing security and promoting development such as creation of alliances, diplomacy, and models of security communities, did not produce the expected results. Therefore, a high potential for renewed conflict remains acute. Across the Balkans, integration and stability are still in their infancy due to strong nationalism and under -performing economies. Taking into consideration that complex crises such as that in the Balkans usually have their origin in long-term circumstances, it is understandable that investigating the long -term, deep historical roots of a conflict is important in identifying possible solutions. One of the main reasons that Western Powers adopted a reluctant attitude towards the Balkans crises, or did too little too late, was misunderstanding the nature and the origin of the conflicts from the beginning. Without knowing where the region is coming from, it is impossible to construct where the region should be heading. This thesis outlines a brief history of the region that provides the context for the current situation. It demonstrates the impact of ethnicity, religion, language, culture, and economics in shaping the conflicts in the Balkans. Furthermore, it analyzes the current security and economic situation in the region. Finally, it provides some security and economic recommendations, which offer guidelines for implementing what the author considers the right path for de-Balkanizing the Balkans. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi DISCLAIMER The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy of the Albanian Parliament or the Albanian Government. vii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK viii TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................ 1 A. GENERAL ........................................................................................ 1 B. THESIS ORGANIZATION ................................................................ 2 C. DEFINITIONS................................................................................... 3 1. South Eastern Europe .............................................................. 3 2. Balkanization........................................................................... 3 3. Ethnicity ................................................................................. 3 II. A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE BALKANS ...................................................... 5 A. THE IMPACT OF GEOGRAPHY ON THE BALKANS’ HISTORY ..... 5 B. A BRIEF HISTORICAL OUTLINE .................................................... 7 1. Ancient Macedonian and Rome ................................................. 7 2. Byzantine Empire (from the Fourth Century to the Fifteenth) ..... 7 3. Ottoman Empire (from the Fifteenth Century to the Eighteenth).............................................................................. 8 4. The Balkans before World War I ............................................ 13 5. World War1.......................................................................... 16 6. The Balkan States Between the Wars ....................................... 17 7. World War II ........................................................................ 19 8. Post-World War II................................................................. 20 III. THE HISTORICAL ORIGI N OF CONFLICT ............................................. 23 A. ETHNIC DIVISIONS ....................................................................... 23 B. RELIGION DIVISIONS ................................................................... 36 C. LANGUAGE DIVISIONS................................................................. 38 D. CULTURAL DIVISIONS ................................................................. 39 IV. RECENT ROOTS OF CONF LICT: COLLAPSE OF BIPOLARITY, ECONOMIC DECLINE, AND SOUTH SLAV INSOLVENT NATIONALISM......................................................................................... 41 A. THE IMPACT OF THE COLLAPSE OF BIPOLARITY ON THE DISINTEGRATION OF YUGOSLAVIA........................................... 42 B. ECONOMIC DECLINE AND INSOLVENT NATIONALI SM ............ 44 V. CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION AND CHALLENGES FOR SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE.................................................................................. 55 A. THE RECENT ECONOMIC SITUATION IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE COUNTRIES
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