DEMOCRATIC HORSE RACE : TSONGAS ALMOST NECK-AND-NECK with CLINTON in NATIONWIDE POLL by Humphrey Taylor Following the New Hampshire Primary, Arkansas Gov

The Hawis Poll

For release: Sunday AM, February 27, 1992 1992 19 ISSN 0895-7983

DEMOCRATIC HORSE RACE : TSONGAS ALMOST NECK-AND-NECK WITH CLINTON IN NATIONWIDE POLL By Humphrey Taylor Following the New Hampshire primary, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton now holds a very small (26 percent to 24 percent) lead over former Sen. Paul Tsongas. In the latest nationwide Harris Poll, taken by telephone between February 19th and February 26th, however, many Democrats and independents express their lack of enthusiasm for any of the five candidates. If Gov. Mario Cuomo is added to the list of candidates, he emerges as the strong front-runner. Candidate preferences vary substantially among different groups in the population. Clinton is the clear leader among those whose education did not go beyond high school but does much less well among the college- educated. He gets the largest share of the black vote, does well among whites but fairs poorly among Hispanics. Tsongas, on the other hand, has a substantial lead among the college-educated but does very poorly among blacks. Former California Gov. Jerry Brown is much more attractive to minority voters than to whites. The focus on Southern primaries over the next few weeks gives Clinton a big advantage. In the South, he is much farther, ahead with 39 percent of the Southern vote, compared to Tsongas' 19 percent, Brown's 14 percent and only 5 percent each for Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa and Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey. The Cuomo Effect The possibility of Mario Cuomo entering the race -- or being drafted -- if all the other candidates appear so damaged or weak as to be unelectable continues to be discussed. If this happens (and many commentators think this unlikely), he will probably command a big following. Among Democrats and independents, he is the preferred candidate, with 26 percent of their votes, compared to 17 percent for Clinton and 16 percent for Tsongas. However, public opinion at this point in the battle for the nomination tends to be extremely volatile. If Gov. Clinton does well in the Southern primaries, and if there are no more damaging disclosures about his past 0.r his private life, his momentum could generate substantially more support in the national polls in March and April. Humphrey Taylor is President and C.E.O. of Louis Harris and Associates, Inc. TABLES Between February 19th and 26th, the Harris Poll asked 797 Democrats and independents nationwide, by telephone:

(over THE HARRIS POLL February 27, 1992 *

DEMOCRATIC HORSE RACE WITH FIVE CURRENT CANDIDATES d "Now let me read you the list of five Democrats who are running for their party's presidential nomination in 1992. If you had to choose, who would be your first choice from that list?" Former Former Governor Senator Governor Senator senator (**)Bill Clinton Paul Tsonqas Jerry Brown Bob Kerrey Tom Harkin % % % % %

TOTAL Voted 1988 East Midwest South West White Black Hispanic Less than high school High school graduate Some college College graduate Postgraduate

(continued) THE HARRIS POLL February 27, 1992 b DEMOCRATIC HORSE RACE WITH MARIO CUOMO AS CANDIDATE "If Gov. Mario Cuomo becomes a candidate for the Democratic nomination, who would be your first choice then?" Former Former Governor Governor senator Governor senator Senator (**)Mario Cuomo Bill Clinton Paul Tsongas Jerry Brown Bob Kerrey Tom Harkin % % % % % %

Voted 1988 17 29 East 39 9 Midwest 20 15 South 23 29 west 2 5 6 White 2 3 18 Black 37 15 Hispanic 3 4 15 Less than high school 27 18 10 High school graduate 22 19 12 Lw Some college 26 15 2 5 College graduate 3 5 13 19 postgraduate 3 5 13 24

METHODOLOGY This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 19th and 26th, among a nationwide cross section of 1,254 adults including 797 Democrats and independents. Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. Contact Louis Harris and Associates, Inc., Information Services, 630 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10111, (212) 698-9600, for complete demographic details for the questions in this release.