Polarization in the wake of the European refugee crisis – a longitudinal study of the Finnish political elite’s attitudes towards refugees and the environment Running head: POLARIZATION POLITICS Jan-Erik Lönnqvista, , Ville-Juhani Ilmarinena, & Florencia M. Sortheixa,b a Swedish School of Social Science, University of Helsinki, Finland b Research and Expertise Center for Survey and Methodology (RECSM), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain Corresponding author: Jan-Erik Lönnqvist, Swedish School of Social Science, University of Helsinki, PO BOX 16, 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland. E-mail:
[email protected]. Acknowledgements: The research was funded by the Academy of Finland grant nr. 309537 to the first author and by the Emil Aaltonen Foundation grant nr. 170303 to the third author. Conflicts of interest: None This is a draft of a manuscript submitted for publication. See https://psyarxiv.com/fytnx/ for updates. Polarization in the wake of the European refugee crisis – a longitudinal study of the Finnish political elite’s attitudes towards refugees and the environment Abstract We investigated political polarization among the 28284 candidates in the Finnish municipal election who ran for municipal council in 2012, 2017, or both, and had responded to a Voting Advice Application. Our results revealed political polarization in terms of both conversion (longitudinal analysis, n = 6643) and recruitment (cross-sectional comparison of first-time candidates, n = 13054). The populist radical-right Finns Party became even more anti-refugee, and the pro-refugee Green League became even more pro-refugee. The Finns Party, in particular, has constructed the Green League as their enemies, which could explain why the Finns Party moved in an anti- environmental direction, as well as the increased issue-alignment between refugee-attitudes and environmental attitudes.