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External Communication in Social Media During Asymmetric Conflicts

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External Communication in Social Media During Asymmetric Conflicts Bernd Hirschberger External Communication in Social Media During Asymmetric Conflicts Political Science | Volume 108 Dedicated to my parents Anja and Franz-Xaver and all who supported my research Bernd Hirschberger works as a human rights advisor for the German Commis- sion for Justice and Peace. Before starting a career as practitioner, he graduated with a PhD degree from the University of Munich, examining external communi- cation during asymmetric conflict in social media. Bernd Hirschberger External Communication in Social Media During Asymmetric Conflicts A Theoretical Model and Empirical Case Study of the Conflict in Israel and Palestine Supported by a scholarship of the Cusanuswerk, the German episcopal academic scholarship foundation for outstanding catholic students within the framework of a state scholarship system for highly talented students. Dissertation, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (University of Munich), 2020 Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche National- bibliografie; detailed bibliographic data are available in the Internet at http:// dnb.d-nb.de This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (BY) license, which means that the text may be remixed, transformed and built upon and be copied and re- distributed in any medium or format even commercially, provided credit is given to the author. For details go to http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons license terms for re-use do not apply to any content (such as graphs, figures, photos, excerpts, etc.) not original to the Open Access publication and further permission may be required from the rights holder. The obligation to research and clear permission lies solely with the party re-using the material. First published in 2021 by transcript Verlag, Bielefeld © Bernd Hirschberger Cover layout: Maria Arndt, Bielefeld Printed by Majuskel Medienproduktion GmbH, Wetzlar Print-ISBN 978-3-8376-5509-4 PDF-ISBN 978-3-8394-5509-8 EPUB-ISBN 978-3-7328-5509-4 https://doi.org/10.14361/9783839455098 Printed on permanent acid-free text paper. Contents Introduction ........................................................................... 9 1.1 Wars of words and images – The effectualness of pictures and stories of war and their strategic exploitation by conflict parties ............................... 9 1.2 Research focus, research questions and core thesis..................................15 1.3 Overview – Thesis outline ............................................................ 17 Conceptualization ....................................................................19 2.1 Conceptualizing “external communication” ...........................................19 2.2 Conceptualizations of strategies of external communication......................... 20 Theory – Explaining the selection of strategies of external communication........................................................ 33 3.1 Theoretical expectations of established theories .................................... 33 3.2 The conflict structure as explanation for the selection of strategies of external communication ............................................ 35 3.3 Interests ........................................................................... 43 3.4 Opportunities....................................................................... 53 3.5 Relations of the pathways, variation across time and possible alternative explanations ............................................... 82 Case selection, research design & methodology ............................. 87 4.1 The case of the conflict in Israel and Palestine ...................................... 87 4.2 Identifying strategies of external communication.................................... 97 4.3 Explaining the selection of external communication strategies ...................... 112 Empirics I – Identifying strategies of externalcommunication in the conflict in Israel and Palestine Empirics I – Identifying strategies of external communication in the conflict in Israel and Palestine ................................................... 119 5.1 Results of the quantifying qualitative content analysis.............................. 120 5.2 Robustness check – Results of the automated quantitative large-scale content analysis and the semi-structured interviews ............................... 124 Empirics II – The impact of the operational environment on the selection of the strategy of external communication in the conflict in Israel and Palestine Empirics II – Interests............................................................. 139 6.1 General pattern – Interests resulting from the distribution of capabilities ............ 141 6.2 Detailed example: Interests resulting from the distribution of economic & financial capabilities ............................... 153 6.3 Detailed example: Interests resulting from the distribution of social/institutional capabilities................................................... 161 Empirics II – Opportunities ....................................................... 169 7.1 Opportunities to convince...........................................................170 7.2 Opportunities to present – Overview................................................. 177 7.3 Opportunities to present – The impact of the distribution of military capabilities.............................................................. 181 7.4 Opportunities to present – The impact of the distribution of economic & financial capabilities ............................................... 194 7.5 Opportunities to present – The impact of the distribution of social/institutional capabilities.................................................. 205 7.6 Identifying the most successful strategy by controlling for efficiency ................214 Empirics II – Crisis communication and alternative explanations........ 225 8.1 Routine vs. crisis communication .................................................. 226 8.2 Alternative explanations ........................................................... 229 Conclusions ......................................................................... 235 9.1 Summary.......................................................................... 235 9.2 Theoretical core contributions ..................................................... 238 9.3 Limitations and proposals for future research: Thinking beyond the conflict in Israel and Palestine ................................ 238 9.4 Practical recommendations ....................................................... 243 Literature and sources............................................................ 251 10.1 Academic literature ............................................................... 251 10.2 Interviews......................................................................... 283 10.3 Software .......................................................................... 284 10.4 News articles, magazines and blogs ............................................... 284 10.5 Conference Documents, legislative documents and (other) primary sources ........ 296 10.6 Statistics and data bases .......................................................... 303 10.7 Sourcesofmaps.................................................................. 306 10.8 List of figures ..................................................................... 307 10.9 List of tables ...................................................................... 308 10.10 Online annex ...................................................................... 309 1. Introduction 1.1 Wars of words and images – The effectualness of pictures and stories of war and their strategic exploitation by conflict parties Pictures and stories of war make a difference. In their recent contributions to the study of conflicts and peace scholars like Mary Kaldor (Kaldor 1999 & 2013) and Chistopher Daase (Daase 1999) have demonstrated that modern conflicts are complex and embedded in a global context of interactions and interdependencies. The outcome and development of a conflict, therefore, is not simply determined by the military capacities of the actual conflict parties (“hard power”) but is also shaped by socio-cultural factors, such as the image of the conflict parties, their credibility, the perception of shared values and moral support (“soft power”) (cf. also Nye 2008; Nye 2009): In the modern globalized world, many con- flicts attract the attention of even those countries that are far away from the actual center of the conflict (Yarchi 2016: 291f.). This can stimulate external moral, diplo- matic, economic or even military interventions by state, or private, actors (Jakob- sen 1996). These interventions can have a significant impact on the course ofthe conflict, as they can provide valuable support for a conflict party or they can as- sert pressure on a conflict party. The image audiences abroad have of a conflict and its actors influences whether external actors intervene in a conflict or not. And, if external actors decide to intervene, the image of the conflict and its actors they have influences what kind of measures they choose for their intervention (cf. Kaldor 1999: 57-68 using the example of the war in Yugoslavia as an illustration; Yarchi 2016: 292f.).1 On the one hand, negative pictures and stories from conflict are proven to encourage mobilization against conflict parties. On the other hand, however, it is noteworthy
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