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Business Aspects of Space Transportation Systems Development UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA FACULTY OF ECONOMICS MASTER’S THESIS BUSINESS ASPECTS OF SPACE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT Ljubljana, June 2017 GREGOR SKOK AUTHORSHIP STATEMENT The undersigned Gregor Skok, a student at the University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics, (hereafter: FELU), author of this written final work of studies with the title Business Aspects of Space Transportation Systems Development, prepared under supervision of prof. dr. Peter Trkman. DECLARE 1. this written final work of studies to be based on the results of my own research; 2. the printed form of this written final work of studies to be identical to its electronic form; 3. the text of this written final work of studies to be language-edited and technically in adherence with the FELU’s Technical Guidelines for Written Works, which means that I cited and / or quoted works and opinions of other authors in this written final work of studies in accordance with the FELU’s Technical Guidelines for Written Works; 4. to be aware of the fact that plagiarism (in written or graphical form) is a criminal offence and can be prosecuted in accordance with the Criminal Code of the Republic of Slovenia; 5. to be aware of the consequences a proven plagiarism charge based on the this written final work could have for my status at the FELU in accordance with the relevant FELU Rules; 6. to have obtained all the necessary permits to use the data and works of other authors which are (in written or graphical form) referred to in this written final work of studies and to have clearly marked them; 7. to have acted in accordance with ethical principles during the preparation of this written final work of studies and to have, where necessary, obtained permission of the Ethics Committee; 8. my consent to use the electronic form of this written final work of studies for the detection of content similarity with other written works, using similarity detection software that is connected with the FELU Study Information System; 9. to transfer to the University of Ljubljana free of charge, non-exclusively, geographically and time-wise unlimited the right of saving this written final work of studies in the electronic form, the right of its reproduction, as well as the right of making this written final work of studies available to the public on the World Wide Web via the Repository of the University of Ljubljana; 10. my consent to publication of my personal data that are included in this written final work of studies and in this declaration, when this written final work of studies is published. Ljubljana, Author’s signature: TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1 1 SPACE INDUSTRY OVERVIEW ...................................................................................... 3 1.1 Space Industry Markets .................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Space Industry in the European Union ............................................................................. 5 1.3 Launcher System Sales ..................................................................................................... 8 2 COMMERCIAL SPACE INDUSTRY ................................................................................ 8 2.1 Commercial Space Industry Structure .............................................................................. 9 2.2 Role of the ISS and NASA in the Commercial Launch Industry Development ............ 11 2.3 Commercial Market ........................................................................................................ 12 2.4 Commercial Launches .................................................................................................... 14 3 SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT AND LOGISTICS ................................................. 16 3.1 Space Sector Supply Chain ............................................................................................ 17 3.1.1 Supply Chain Structure ........................................................................................... 17 3.1.2 Value Chain ............................................................................................................. 18 3.2 Space Logistics ............................................................................................................... 20 3.3 Reverse Logistics ........................................................................................................... 22 4 OPERATIONS AND LAUNCH VEHICLES ................................................................... 25 4.1 Basic Operations ............................................................................................................ 25 4.2 Orbit Types ..................................................................................................................... 27 4.3 Space Launch Vehicles .................................................................................................. 27 4.3.1 Space Launch Vehicle Types .................................................................................. 28 4.3.2 Number of Stages .................................................................................................... 29 4.3.3 Space Transportation Vehicle Parts ........................................................................ 31 5 SPACE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM FINANCING AND CONTRACTING ................................................................................................................... 33 5.1 Financing of Space Projects ........................................................................................... 33 5.2 Contracting ..................................................................................................................... 34 5.3 Risk Management ........................................................................................................... 35 5.4 Insurance ........................................................................................................................ 36 6 SPACE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM COSTS ........................................................... 37 6.1 Spaceflight Cost Overview ............................................................................................. 38 6.2 Cost Estimation Methods ............................................................................................... 41 6.3 Comparison of Reusable and Expendable Launch Vehicles .......................................... 41 6.4 Cost of Reusable and Expendable Launch Vehicles ...................................................... 43 6.5 Dual Pricing and Cost Environment ............................................................................... 46 7 FUTURE DEMAND PREDICTIONS ............................................................................... 49 7.1 Existing Markets ............................................................................................................ 49 7.2 Emerging Space Markets ............................................................................................... 51 7.2.1 Space Tourism ......................................................................................................... 51 i 7.2.2 On-Orbit Satellite Servicing .................................................................................... 52 7.2.3 Private Space Exploration ....................................................................................... 52 7.3 Suborbital Reusable Transportation Systems ................................................................. 53 7.4 Space Launch System (SLS) .......................................................................................... 54 7.5 Skylon ............................................................................................................................. 55 8 QUALITATIVE RESEARCH OF SPACE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS .......... 58 8.1 Interview Details ............................................................................................................ 58 8.2 Cost and Revenue Specifics ........................................................................................... 58 8.3 Reusability as a Sustainable Future Approach ............................................................... 62 8.4 Space Industry Development and Demand .................................................................... 63 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................... 68 REFERENCE LIST ............................................................................................................... 70 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Distribution of Sales by Main Market Segment (%) .................................................. 6 Figure 2. Sales by Main Market Segment: Military vs. Civil (M€) ........................................... 7 Figure 3. Sales by System: Public vs. Private customers (M €) ................................................. 7 Figure 4. Launcher System Sales (M€) ...................................................................................... 8 Figure 5. Total Commercial Space Launches from 1990-2014 ............................................... 10 Figure 6. Sales to Commercial Market by Customers (%) ...................................................... 13 Figure 7. Sales on the Commercial Market by System (M €) .................................................. 13
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