Eurasia Region Weekly Covid Checkup

26 April 2021

www.macro-advisory.com 1 Covid-19 Checkup

❑ Our weekly review of Covid statistics, trends and analysis of these trends across all of the major Eurasia economies.

❑ Report Slides ❑ Slides continued

▪ Regional Overview Slide 3 ▪ Slide 17 ▪ Slide 18 ▪ Summary Slide 4 ▪ Summary Eurasia Slide 5 ▪ Slide 19 ▪ Slide 20 ▪ Russia Travel List Slide 6 ▪ Russia Data Slide 7 ▪ Slide 21 ▪ Data Slide 8 ▪ Slide 22 ▪ Russia Checkup Slide 9 ▪ Russia Infections Slide 10 ▪ Slide 23 ▪ Russia Deaths Slide 11 ▪ Russia Deaths by Month Slide 12 ▪ Russia Comparison Slide 13 ▪ Russia Comparison Adj. Slide 14 ▪ Russia Economy Impact Slide 15 ▪ Industrial Recovery Slide 16

www.macro-advisory.com 2 Regional Overview

Eurasia, Daily New Coronavirus Infections, all countries

60000 56590

50000 40442 38231 40000 35648 30386 28260 30000 21551 20000 11792 13407 9501 10000 5361

0

Source: Russian Government

❑ Ukraine seems to have its third wave under control and this has driven the overall total down ❑ Kazakhstan and Belarus are seeing higher numbers ❑ Azerbaijan and Armenia are well past the peak in their third wave ❑ Russia is flat overall, but cases in Moscow are slightly up, probably due to seasonal factors ❑ Vaccination is still supply constrained, even in Russia

www.macro-advisory.com 3 Summary - Russia

❑ Post-Covid Federal Address. President Putin held his annual Federal Assembly Address on April 21st (see separately issued report). One of the main topics of the Address was a post-Covid 19 victory lap. This is one of the reasons why this year’s Address was delayed (last year it was held in January). The President stopped short of declaring victory over the virus, but he came close. He praised Russia’s success with the Sputnik-V vaccine and urged all citizens to get the jab

❑ Small third wave. New cases are flat overall, but up slightly in Moscow. The government is somewhat concerned and has declared a holiday from May 1st to May 11th. May 1-3rd and 9-10th are the usual May holidays, although most people take the full period off each year ❑ Vaccination progressing. Only about 4.7% of the population has had both doses of the vaccine ❑ Immortal Regiment postponed. As well as extending the May holiday, the government has cancelled the annual memorial demonstration for WWII, normally held on May 10th ❑ Vaccine encouragement. A sign of the slow vaccine take-up is that the Moscow City government will give small gift certificates to over-60s who get vaccinated

www.macro-advisory.com 4 Summary - Other Eurasia

❑ Ukraine: The third wave has peaked. Kiev may come out of lockdown next week ❑ Kazakhstan: New cases are still at their highest level since the pandemic started, but there are signs of the third wave flattening out ❑ Uzbekistan: Small rise in new cases, but levels are still low though ❑ Armenia: The third wave has peaked, and vaccinations slowly started last week ❑ Azerbaijan: The third wave has peaked and 9% of the population has been vaccinated ❑ Belarus: The number of new cases remains high ❑ Georgia: There is a continued rise in new cases. The test rate is over 4% which could trigger fresh restrictions

www.macro-advisory.com 5 Approved Travel List Expanded

❑ Travel restrictions with UK have eased. UK passport holders and those with residency rights in the UK, may now travel to Russia via a third country. Direct UK to Moscow flights remain suspended, although Moscow to London flights have been operating. It is planned to resume the UK to Russia flights in early June. Travellers will also need a valid visa to enter Russia.

❑ List is already expanded. As of April 19th, citizens and those with official residency of a total of 29 countries, may enter Russia via a third country transit. Previously they could only travel to Russia with a direct flight from their respective countries.

❑ Other travel requirements apply. Travellers must have a valid visa to enter Russia and comply with all other regulations, such as having a 72-hour negative PCR test. Those with HQS visas and residency rights in Russia, which have not been affected by the previous ban, remain unaffected.

❑ The full list of open countries is: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Britain, , , Ethiopia, , , , , , Kazakhstan, , the Maldives, , , the Seychelles, Singapore, , Sri Lanka, , , , Tanzania, , UAE, Uzbekistan, Venezuela and .

www.macro-advisory.com 6 Russia Data

Russia, Daily New Coronavirus Infections

35000 Russia 28948 30000 24715 25000 Population 145,934,462 20000 16688 15000 11656 Total Infected 4,753,789 8946 8840 10000 7600 5940 4696 5000 Total Vaccinated 6,800,000(2 doses) 0 Total Deaths 107,900 (see below)

Source: Russian Government

❑ Small uptick in the number of new cases. There are more new cases in Moscow, essentially a third wave, and fewer new cases in the regions ❑ Vaccination is continuing, about 4.7% of the population have had two doses, and 7.6% have had one dose o Availability is less of a problem now, with a total of 28 million doses produced and 15 million made available in Russia o Now that there is more availability of vaccines, willingness to be vaccinated is an issue, and the government continues to promote vaccination aggressively

www.macro-advisory.com 7 Moscow Data

Moscow, Daily New Coronavirus Infections

9000 Moscow 7918 8203 8000 6703 7000 Population 12,655,050 6000 5534 5000 Total Infected 1,063,773 4000 2560 2502 3000 2150 Total Vaccinated 820,000(2 doses) 2000 1068 681 1000 578 Total Deaths 17,639(see below) 0

Source: Russia Coronavirus Information Center

❑ Increase in new cases in Moscow, but not on the same scale as the third wave in other countries ❑ Authorities continue to see this as seasonal ❑ Vaccination is progressing o Over a million people have been vaccinated in Moscow, which may avoid a major surge o However, it seems likely that all the “early adopters” have been vaccinated, with polls suggesting that there are plenty of vacant vaccination slots in the capital

www.macro-advisory.com 8 Russia Checkup

❑ Presidential meeting. The President had a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Golikova and RosPotrebNadzor head Anna Popova, which is a sign of high-level concern. He announced that the period of May 1-11th would be a holiday, which should allow people to get out of the city and act as a brake on the spread

❑ Immortal Regiment moves online. The government announced that the annual Immortal Regiment demonstrations, where thousands gather on May 9th to commemorate the WWII dead, would be held online again. This is Russia’s biggest gathering and is particularly popular with the older generation

❑ Moscow stimulates vaccination. The Moscow City government announced on April 20th a package of measures designed to encourage older people to get vaccinated. People over 60 will get gift certificates worth RUB1,000 (US$ 13) after being vaccinated, which can be used in participating shops and restaurants

www.macro-advisory.com 9 Russia Infection Rate

Share Of Russian Daily New Infections Arising In Moscow, %

70% 60% 60% 50% 35% 40% 30%32% 28% 27% 29% 30% 22% 22% 19% 22% 16% 16% 20% 12% 9% 10% 15% 16% 10% 14% 0%

Source: Russian official data, Macro-Advisory estimates

❑ The “R” reinfection rate is steady nationwide at around 1.0

❑ Moscow is taking an increasing share of new infections. This is likely due to more shop visits, lower mask discipline, and could see an increase around Easter as people gather in churches

www.macro-advisory.com 10 Russia Deaths

Russia, Trailing Seven-Day Deaths Russia, Daily Deaths

4500 3960 4032 700 613 569 590 4000 600 536 3500 2969 475 2707 500 439 3000 3285 389 400 397 400 2500 2825 317 2000 300 232 1178 1253 202 1500 1152 1163 194 198 760 770 734 887 200 135 144132 1000 386 102 100 500 967 694 0 0

Source: Russian Government Source: Russian Government

❑ The death rate is below the peak, but has flattened at quite a high level, which reflects the fact that the number of new cases has also stopped falling

❑ Note: this is the official “quick report” and it under-reports the true death number (next slide)

www.macro-advisory.com 11 Russia deaths (continued)

Comparison Of Different Estimates Of COVID-19 Deaths, Russia Rosstat Reported to WHO COVID Primary COVID Present Total Excess Deaths April 1,145 1,748 1,077 2,825 (2,994) May 3,686 7,603 5,066 12,669 18,375 June 4,681 7,317 5,018 12,335 25,521 July 4,522 6,084 4,287 10,371 29,925 August 3,241 4,018 3,655 7,673 13,787 September 3,592 5,199 4,599 9,798 31,666 October 7,344 13,896 8,675 24,333 47,777 November 12,229 19,626 16,019 35,645 78,541 December 17,124 31,550 12,885 44,435 95,408 January 16,064 26,292 10,815 37,107 55,694 February 12,940 16,576 7,793 24,369 29,447 Total 73,628 139,909 79,889 197,191 423,147 Source: Russian government (excess is relative to the previous year)

❑ Russia’s daily estimates of deaths (with the “quick format” reports) from Covid-19 are an underestimate due to conservative classification rules and the delay in receiving more complete data ❑ The February monthly data was released in early April – It showed that Covid deaths are around two- times the daily report and excess deaths are about 2.5 times the daily report. Covid deaths and excess deaths are closer to each other than at any time during the pandemic ❑ February excess deaths are the lowest since August 2020

www.macro-advisory.com 12 Death Rate Comparison

Deaths Per Million Population, as of April 24th

2500 2217 1971 1869 2000 1822 1783 1762 1725 1659 1652 1571 1429 1500 1381 1372 1350 978 973 903 1000 814 739 629 399 500

0

Source: Worldometer, NB only countries with more than 20 million population ❑ The table above compares the daily reported data across countries ❑ Each country has its own reporting methods, so one should wait for all countries to report excess death data (some countries have not reported deaths data for 2020) ❑ The “adjusted deaths data” puts Russia in a bad light, but it is possible/likely that other countries are under-reporting and that the Russia excess number includes non-covid deaths ❑ That said, Russia numbers are high and probably reflect the decision taken in late 2020 not to shut down for a second time, i.e. to let the infection run and wait for vaccination production to ramp up

www.macro-advisory.com 13 Death Rate Comparison

Excess Deaths Per Million Population, 2020

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 -

Excess Deaths per million Official Death rate

Source: National Statistical Data, Macro-Advisory Limited estimates ❑ The graph above compares excess deaths across selected countries for 2020, together with the officially reported number of deaths from Covid-19 in 2020. We can see that for Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, excess deaths were much higher than the official Covid-19 death count. However, there are also discrepancies in , the US and Ukraine

❑ The number for Russia is about the same as our estimated number used in the previous graph, triple the official death rate

www.macro-advisory.com 14 Russia Economy Impact

Russia: Change in Weekly Spending Relative to Same Period Last Year, 2020-21

10% 6.8% 5.5% 3.7% 4.2% 5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.6% -0.7% 0.10% -2.3% 0% -1.7% 2.0% -1.2% -5% -9.0% -2.6% -3.5% -3.8% -2.8% -10% -13.2% -12.6% -7.5% -8.0% -15% -19.3% -10.8% -11.4% -20% -25% -21.6% -20.9%

Source: Sberbank ❑ The graph above shows how consumer spending recovered after the first lockdown and was maintained during the second wave. This was critical in reducing the impact to a relatively low fall in GDP of 3.1% ❑ In 2021, to date, retail spending is running at about 2-4% higher than the same period in 2020. Expect a sharp rise in this number in this coming week as it is the anniversary of the start of the first lockdown o In the week beginning April 12th, spending was 5.5% higher than the average spending pre-lockdown, and slightly down on the 5.3% recorded the previous week o Actual spending is 40% higher than the same week last year because the lockdown started a year ago o This breaks down into a 6% rise in food spending, a 9% rise in non-food goods, and a 1% fall in services spending

www.macro-advisory.com 15 Industrial Recovery

Russian Industrial Production, 2019-2021, % change year-on-year 2019 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 2020 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Industrial Production 3.3% 1.5% 4.8% 2.4% -4.5% -7.9% -7.1% -5.9% -4.2% -4.0% -5.7% -1.5% -0.2% -2.9% -1.9% -3.2% 2.1% Extraction 3.4% 0.6% 3.1% -0.2% -0.9% -10.9% -13.0% -14.0% -1.6% -9.5% -9.2% -7.5% -8.5% -7.0% -7.4% -9.0% -5.8% Processing 3.5% 4.2% 7.6% 5.9% -7.6% -4.6% -3.0% -0.1% 0.4% -0.1% -3.9% 2.9% 4.4% 0.3% -0.2% -1.7% 4.2% Electricity and gas supply -0.8% -5.7% -1.1% -3.0% -1.0% -3.4% -3.7% -1.1% -2.1% -3.0% -3.5% -2.8% 4.7% -2.5% 8.7% 9.0% 11.0% Water supply and waste 2.9% 2.2% 3.3% -5.7% -12.7% -9.2% -9.3% -9.5% -5.2% -1.8% 3.0% 4.7% 6.5% -3.8% 15.4% 10.8% 9.7% Source: Rosstat

❑ The table above shows the year-on-year dynamic in industrial production and its components since the start of 2020 ❑ In 2021, to date, we have seen a healthy recovery in all components, and overall industrial production is now showing growth for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This growth is relative to a pre- pandemic base

o The main driver is processing, or manufacturing, which was 4.2% higher YoY than the same month last year. This is good news because industrial growth was generally strong in early 2020 o Extraction is still down 5.8% YoY in March, mainly due to lower oil and gas production, which in turn is driven by lower oil demand o Electricity demand was up 11% YoY

www.macro-advisory.com 16 Kazakhstan New Cases

Kazakhstan, Daily New Coronavirus Infections

3500 3016 Kazakhstan 3000 2500 2088 Population 18,776,707 2000 1600 1694 1422 1418 1500 1223 1008 Total Infected 358,834 1000 696 703 307 500 141 264 199 Total Vaccinated 823,498 0 Total Deaths 3,311

Source: Johns Hopkins

❑ Daily new cases hit a new high last week, and the number of regions in the red zone rose from 9 to 10 ❑ Covid beds are 41% occupied, intensive care are 27% occupied ❑ The Ashyq system of QR codes is gradually being extended in Almaty and Nur-Sultan ❑ The first batches of the Kazakh vaccine were shipped this week ❑ The Prime Minister said on April 23rd that Kazakhstan expects to vaccinate 2 million per month from April ❑ See our recent Kazakhstan country update “Kazakhstan: Very Nice! (with caveats)” issued in January

www.macro-advisory.com 17 Uzbekistan New Cases

Uzbekistan, Daily New Coronavirus Infections

1200 Uzbekistan 981 1000 784 800 732 739 Population 33,469,203 594 600 429 384 Total Infected 89,027 328 363 320 400 230 167 115 93 112 200 4977 34 Total Vaccinated 544,529 0 Total Deaths 643

Source: Johns Hopkins

❑ New cases continue to rise, but the government is not changing quarantine rules ❑ On April 19th the government recommended that children and people over 65 should not visit mosques, because of the spread of the British strain ❑ Vaccination started on April 1st and is running at over 20,000 per day

❑ See our recent Uzbekistan country update “Uzbekistan: Energizing sustainable growth” issued in February

www.macro-advisory.com 18 Ukraine New Cases

Ukraine, Daily New Coronavirus Infections

25000 Ukraine 20456 20000 16494 15937 Population 43,733,762 13736 14400 15000 Total Infected 2,071,142 9058 8151 9257 10000 7780 5333 3935 5000 2897 Total Vaccinated 526,914 501 402 890 924 1144 0 Total Deaths 43, 884

Source: Johns Hopkins

❑ The third wave has peaked, thanks to the lockdown measures ❑ Kiev and 11 regions are in the red lockdown zone, one fewer than last week. The government has said that there will be no additional lockdown during Easter and Kiev may loosen quarantine next week ❑ Vaccination update: o Vaccination continues, at a pace of about 20,000 per day o The Minister of Healthcare said on April 23rd that they expected a further 1.9 million doses by the end of May – 1.4 million via COVAX and 0.5 million SinoVac

www.macro-advisory.com 19 Armenia New Cases

Armenia, Daily Coronavirus Infections

3000 Armenia 2476 2500 Population 2,963,243 2000 1785 1500 1231 1098 Total Infected 212,878 881 1000 766 736 672 577 485 355 321 429 500 189 Total Vaccinated 600 0 Total Deaths 4,001

Source: Johns Hopkins

❑ It looks like the peak of the third wave has been passed. Quarantine is in place until July 11th

❑ Armenia will hold a parliamentary election on June 20th. This may lead to an increase in the infection rate due to political gatherings

❑ Mass vaccination was due to start on April 19th o The government has not released any data on vaccination since March 30th o Vaccination is still limited by supply, which is coming from either COVAX or Russia’s Sputnik-V, and we estimate that the current stock of vaccines is about 40,000 doses

www.macro-advisory.com 20 Azerbaijan New Cases

Azerbaijan, Daily Coronavirus Infections

5000 4387 Azerbaijan 4500 4000 3500 Population 10,139,177 3000 2717 2500 2047 Total Infected 311,465 2000 1500 1000 547 Total Vaccinated 917,877 314 520417 500 97 140 188 162 230 0 Total Deaths 4,342

Source: Johns Hopkins ❑ Third wave has clearly peaked

o Government has not announced any change in the lockdown

❑ The vaccination rate is the second highest in the region after Russia, 9% of the population o Azerbaijan bought 4 million doses of ’s CoronaVac o They will also use Sputnik-V

www.macro-advisory.com 21 Belarus New Cases

Belarus, Daily New Coronavirus Infections Belarus 2500 1975 1967 2000 1735 Population 9,449,323 1414 1500 973 969 984 Total Infected 351,674 1000 332 500 208 Total Vaccinated 211,000 0 Total Deaths 2,483

Source: Johns Hopkins ❑ The number of cases spiked last week. There is no change in the lockdown policy, and it seems unlikely that this wave will go higher than the previous one, unless new strains spread more quickly

❑ Vaccination data is proceeding at about 10,000 per day but is still limited by supply. Vaccination should be open to all from April 19th o A local version of Sputnik-V should be available by the end of April

❑ See our recent Belarus country update “Belarus: Political instability should not lead to economic unpredictability” issued in March

www.macro-advisory.com 22 Georgia New Cases

Georgia, Daily New Coronavirus Infections

6000 Georgia 5068 5000 Population 3,989,167 4000 2859 3000 2316 Total Infected 302,785 1941 1792 2000 1006 1000 296519 537 Total Vaccinated 34,897 8 6 12 15 0 Total Deaths 4,007

Source: Johns Hopkins

❑ The government says that the peak of the third wave has not been reached. The positive test rate has been over 4% which could lead to more restrictions. The post-Easter period will be non-working ❑ The government is mobilizing more beds ❑ Vaccination is still limited by supplies, with more deliveries of Sinovac expected by the end of April

❑ See our recent Georgia country update “Georgia: Hoping and Planning for a Robust Recovery” issued in January

www.macro-advisory.com 23 Contacts

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