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Eurasia Region Weekly Covid Checkup

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Eurasia Region Weekly Covid Checkup Eurasia Region Weekly Covid Checkup 26 April 2021 www.macro-advisory.com 1 Covid-19 Checkup ❑ Our weekly review of Covid statistics, trends and analysis of these trends across all of the major Eurasia economies. ❑ Report Slides ❑ Slides continued ▪ Regional Overview Slide 3 ▪ Kazakhstan Slide 17 ▪ Uzbekistan Slide 18 ▪ Summary Russia Slide 4 ▪ Summary Eurasia Slide 5 ▪ Ukraine Slide 19 ▪ Armenia Slide 20 ▪ Russia Travel List Slide 6 ▪ Russia Data Slide 7 ▪ Azerbaijan Slide 21 ▪ Moscow Data Slide 8 ▪ Belarus Slide 22 ▪ Russia Checkup Slide 9 ▪ Russia Infections Slide 10 ▪ Georgia Slide 23 ▪ Russia Deaths Slide 11 ▪ Russia Deaths by Month Slide 12 ▪ Russia Comparison Slide 13 ▪ Russia Comparison Adj. Slide 14 ▪ Russia Economy Impact Slide 15 ▪ Industrial Recovery Slide 16 www.macro-advisory.com 2 Regional Overview Eurasia, Daily New Coronavirus Infections, all countries 60000 56590 50000 40442 38231 40000 35648 30386 28260 30000 21551 20000 11792 13407 9501 10000 5361 0 Source: Russian Government ❑ Ukraine seems to have its third wave under control and this has driven the overall total down ❑ Kazakhstan and Belarus are seeing higher numbers ❑ Azerbaijan and Armenia are well past the peak in their third wave ❑ Russia is flat overall, but cases in Moscow are slightly up, probably due to seasonal factors ❑ Vaccination is still supply constrained, even in Russia www.macro-advisory.com 3 Summary - Russia ❑ Post-Covid Federal Address. President Putin held his annual Federal Assembly Address on April 21st (see separately issued report). One of the main topics of the Address was a post-Covid 19 victory lap. This is one of the reasons why this year’s Address was delayed (last year it was held in January). The President stopped short of declaring victory over the virus, but he came close. He praised Russia’s success with the Sputnik-V vaccine and urged all citizens to get the jab ❑ Small third wave. New cases are flat overall, but up slightly in Moscow. The government is somewhat concerned and has declared a holiday from May 1st to May 11th. May 1-3rd and 9-10th are the usual May holidays, although most people take the full period off each year ❑ Vaccination progressing. Only about 4.7% of the population has had both doses of the vaccine ❑ Immortal Regiment postponed. As well as extending the May holiday, the government has cancelled the annual memorial demonstration for WWII, normally held on May 10th ❑ Vaccine encouragement. A sign of the slow vaccine take-up is that the Moscow City government will give small gift certificates to over-60s who get vaccinated www.macro-advisory.com 4 Summary - Other Eurasia ❑ Ukraine: The third wave has peaked. Kiev may come out of lockdown next week ❑ Kazakhstan: New cases are still at their highest level since the pandemic started, but there are signs of the third wave flattening out ❑ Uzbekistan: Small rise in new cases, but levels are still low though ❑ Armenia: The third wave has peaked, and vaccinations slowly started last week ❑ Azerbaijan: The third wave has peaked and 9% of the population has been vaccinated ❑ Belarus: The number of new cases remains high ❑ Georgia: There is a continued rise in new cases. The test rate is over 4% which could trigger fresh restrictions www.macro-advisory.com 5 Approved Travel List Expanded ❑ Travel restrictions with UK have eased. UK passport holders and those with residency rights in the UK, may now travel to Russia via a third country. Direct UK to Moscow flights remain suspended, although Moscow to London flights have been operating. It is planned to resume the UK to Russia flights in early June. Travellers will also need a valid visa to enter Russia. ❑ List is already expanded. As of April 19th, citizens and those with official residency of a total of 29 countries, may enter Russia via a third country transit. Previously they could only travel to Russia with a direct flight from their respective countries. ❑ Other travel requirements apply. Travellers must have a valid visa to enter Russia and comply with all other regulations, such as having a 72-hour negative PCR test. Those with HQS visas and residency rights in Russia, which have not been affected by the previous ban, remain unaffected. ❑ The full list of open countries is: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Britain, Cuba, Egypt, Ethiopia, Finland, Germany, Greece, India, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the Maldives, Qatar, Serbia, the Seychelles, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Turkey, UAE, Uzbekistan, Venezuela and Vietnam. www.macro-advisory.com 6 Russia Data Russia, Daily New Coronavirus Infections 35000 Russia 28948 30000 24715 25000 Population 145,934,462 20000 16688 15000 11656 Total Infected 4,753,789 8946 8840 10000 7600 5940 4696 5000 Total Vaccinated 6,800,000(2 doses) 0 Total Deaths 107,900 (see below) Source: Russian Government ❑ Small uptick in the number of new cases. There are more new cases in Moscow, essentially a third wave, and fewer new cases in the regions ❑ Vaccination is continuing, about 4.7% of the population have had two doses, and 7.6% have had one dose o Availability is less of a problem now, with a total of 28 million doses produced and 15 million made available in Russia o Now that there is more availability of vaccines, willingness to be vaccinated is an issue, and the government continues to promote vaccination aggressively www.macro-advisory.com 7 Moscow Data Moscow, Daily New Coronavirus Infections 9000 Moscow 7918 8203 8000 6703 7000 Population 12,655,050 6000 5534 5000 Total Infected 1,063,773 4000 2560 2502 3000 2150 Total Vaccinated 820,000(2 doses) 2000 1068 681 1000 578 Total Deaths 17,639(see below) 0 Source: Russia Coronavirus Information Center ❑ Increase in new cases in Moscow, but not on the same scale as the third wave in other countries ❑ Authorities continue to see this as seasonal ❑ Vaccination is progressing o Over a million people have been vaccinated in Moscow, which may avoid a major surge o However, it seems likely that all the “early adopters” have been vaccinated, with polls suggesting that there are plenty of vacant vaccination slots in the capital www.macro-advisory.com 8 Russia Checkup ❑ Presidential meeting. The President had a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Golikova and RosPotrebNadzor head Anna Popova, which is a sign of high-level concern. He announced that the period of May 1-11th would be a holiday, which should allow people to get out of the city and act as a brake on the spread ❑ Immortal Regiment moves online. The government announced that the annual Immortal Regiment demonstrations, where thousands gather on May 9th to commemorate the WWII dead, would be held online again. This is Russia’s biggest gathering and is particularly popular with the older generation ❑ Moscow stimulates vaccination. The Moscow City government announced on April 20th a package of measures designed to encourage older people to get vaccinated. People over 60 will get gift certificates worth RUB1,000 (US$ 13) after being vaccinated, which can be used in participating shops and restaurants www.macro-advisory.com 9 Russia Infection Rate Share Of Russian Daily New Infections Arising In Moscow, % 70% 60% 60% 50% 35% 40% 30%32% 28% 27% 29% 30% 22% 22% 19% 22% 16% 16% 20% 12% 9% 10% 15% 16% 10% 14% 0% Source: Russian official data, Macro-Advisory estimates ❑ The “R” reinfection rate is steady nationwide at around 1.0 ❑ Moscow is taking an increasing share of new infections. This is likely due to more shop visits, lower mask discipline, and could see an increase around Easter as people gather in churches www.macro-advisory.com 10 Russia Deaths Russia, Trailing Seven-Day Deaths Russia, Daily Deaths 4500 3960 4032 700 613 569 590 4000 600 536 3500 2969 475 2707 500 439 3000 3285 389 400 397 400 2500 2825 317 2000 300 232 1178 1253 202 1500 1152 1163 194 198 760 770 734 887 200 135 144132 1000 386 102 100 500 967 694 0 0 Source: Russian Government Source: Russian Government ❑ The death rate is below the peak, but has flattened at quite a high level, which reflects the fact that the number of new cases has also stopped falling ❑ Note: this is the official “quick report” and it under-reports the true death number (next slide) www.macro-advisory.com 11 Russia deaths (continued) Comparison Of Different Estimates Of COVID-19 Deaths, Russia Rosstat Reported to WHO COVID Primary COVID Present Total Excess Deaths April 1,145 1,748 1,077 2,825 (2,994) May 3,686 7,603 5,066 12,669 18,375 June 4,681 7,317 5,018 12,335 25,521 July 4,522 6,084 4,287 10,371 29,925 August 3,241 4,018 3,655 7,673 13,787 September 3,592 5,199 4,599 9,798 31,666 October 7,344 13,896 8,675 24,333 47,777 November 12,229 19,626 16,019 35,645 78,541 December 17,124 31,550 12,885 44,435 95,408 January 16,064 26,292 10,815 37,107 55,694 February 12,940 16,576 7,793 24,369 29,447 Total 73,628 139,909 79,889 197,191 423,147 Source: Russian government (excess is relative to the previous year) ❑ Russia’s daily estimates of deaths (with the “quick format” reports) from Covid-19 are an underestimate due to conservative classification rules and the delay in receiving more complete data ❑ The February monthly data was released in early April – It showed that Covid deaths are around two- times the daily report and excess deaths are about 2.5 times the daily report.
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