DOCSLIB.ORG

National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text

Load more

C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL WILL to FIGHT Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t Michael J. McNerney, Ben Connable, S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Natasha Lander, Marek N. Posard, Jasen J. Castillo, Dan Madden, Ilana Blum, Aaron Frank, Benjamin J. Fernandes, In Hyo Seol, Christopher Paul, Andrew Parasiliti For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2477 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0053-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Landing ships putting cargo ashore on Omaha Beach, mid-June, 1944/Photograph 26-G 2517 from the U.S. Coast Guard Collection in the U.S. National Archives. Cover design by Eileen Delson La Russo Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis as part of a project titled Assessing and Influencing National Will to Fight, which is sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Plans, and Training, U.S. Army (G-3/5/7). The pur- pose of the project was to provide a generalizable analytic method to assess national will to fight, to use that method to provide an assessment in a Korean Peninsula scenario and a scenario involving Russia and members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and to provide recommendations for the best methods to influence national will to fight. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD167561. This research was conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doc- trine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corpora- tion, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and com- plies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Instruc- tion 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...................................................................................vii Summary .............................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments .................................................................................. xix Abbreviations ........................................................................................ xxi CHAPTER ONE What Is Will to Fight and Why Does It Matter? ............................................... 1 Purpose of the Study ................................................................................... 1 What Is Will to Fight? ................................................................................. 4 Does Will Really Matter in Practice? ............................................................... 6 U.S. Experience with National Will to Fight ......................................................10 Recognizing How Will to Fight Matters ...........................................................13 Can National Will Be Analyzed? ...................................................................15 Using Mixed Methods Is the Best Approach to Understanding Will ..........................16 Structure of the Report ...............................................................................18 CHAPTER TWO Why Do Governments Persevere in War? .......................................................21 A Word About Our Literature Review .............................................................21 A Word About Frameworks and Models .......................................................... 22 From Framework to Exploratory Model .......................................................... 23 How to Measure National Will to Fight .......................................................... 34 Hypotheses to Help Analyze the Variables in Our National Will to Fight Model........... 36 CHAPTER THREE Exploring the Model Across the 20th Century .................................................37 Purpose of the Case Studies .........................................................................37 Case Study Summary .................................................................................39 Unpacking Our Seven Factors ..................................................................... 42 Unpacking Our Four Contexts ..................................................................... 48 v vi National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t Unpacking Our Four Mechanisms .................................................................52 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 56 CHAPTER FOUR The Korean Peninsula: Will to Fight and the Arc of History ...............................59 Korean War ............................................................................................59 Contemporary National Will to Fight .............................................................71 Conclusion .............................................................................................79 CHAPTER FIVE Russian Will to Fight and the Arc of History ..................................................83 World War I ...........................................................................................85 World War II ......................................................................................... 87 First and Second Chechen Wars ....................................................................91 Russia Today .......................................................................................... 97 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 104 CHAPTER SIX Findings and Recommendations ................................................................ 109 Overall Findings .................................................................................... 111 Hypothesis 1: Factors ............................................................................... 112 Hypothesis 2: Contexts ............................................................................. 113 Hypothesis 3: Economics .......................................................................... 114 Hypothesis 4: Political Mechanisms .............................................................. 114 Hypothesis 5: Capabilities and Casualties ....................................................... 117 Recommendations .................................................................................. 117 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 121 ONLINE APPENDIXES Available for download at www.rand.org/t/RR2477 A. What Our Literature Review Told Us B. Case Study Selection and Additional Details on Cases References ........................................................................................... 123 Figures and Tables Figures S.1. National Will to Fight Framework ....................................................xii S.2. Centers of Gravity and Variables in the National Will to Fight Exploratory Model ......................................................................xiii S.3. Summary of Overall Findings......................................................... xiv S.4. Summary of Overarching Recommendations ....................................... xvi S.5. Summary of Mechanism-Based Recommendations ............................... xvii 1.1. Definition of National Will to Fight ................................................... 5 1.2. Winston Churchill ........................................................................ 7 1.3. Ho Chi Minh ............................................................................. 9 1.4. 2015 National Military Strategy Continuum of Conflict Concept ...............12 2.1. National Will to Fight Framework ..................................................
Recommended publications
  • Open Letter to New York State Senators

    Open Letter to New York State Senators

    New York State Senate Capitol Building Empire State Plaza, Albany New York, 12224 September 12, 2018 Dear Senators, This letter is in response to a passing of New York State Senate Resolution J4960, commemorating the 4th Annual New York Immortal Regiment March organized by the Russian Youth of America on May 5, 2018. We, the undersigned, American citizens and residents are profoundly concerned by Resolution J4960 passed on May 8, 2018 by the New York State Senate, that commemorates the 4th Annual New York Immortal Regiment March and the Russian Youth of America that organizes this event in New York City. We have all reasons to think that the Immortal Regiment March in the U.S. is backed by the Russian government via financial and informational support. Moreover, it serves as an instrument of the Kremlin’s “soft power” - economic and cultural influence to promote Putin’s agenda in the United States. While the Immortal Regiment March began as a nonpolitical private grassroots initiative in Russia in 2011, it was soon hijacked by the Russian government to serve official propaganda efforts that praises Russian military victories. The aggressiveness and ideological orientation of the marches manifest themselves through effective visual symbols, most recognizably the St. George ribbon. This ribbon has recently became a symbol of Russian backed troops in Eastern Ukraine. As well as pro-Kremlin organizations, such as AntiMaidan, NOD and SERB that attack pro-democracy activists in Russia. Thereafter, the Immortal Regiment March was effectively transplanted abroad via organizations like the Russian Youth of America, and gained popularity in many parts of the U.S., including cities in N.Y.
  • Year 1. Summer 1. Your Imagination

    Year 1. Summer 1. Your Imagination

    Your Imagination – Year 1 Summer 1 Key vocabulary Pulse A single vibration or short burst of sound, electric current, light, Relevant Songs Singing Tips or other wave. Daydream Believer Ensemble A group of musicians who perform together. This song was released in 1968 by The Monkees. It is a Rock song Pitch How high or low the music sounds. and it reached No. 1 in the US on its release. Rhythm A strong, regular repeated pattern of movement or sound. A Whole New World Call and A series of two parts usually This song is from the 1992 Warming up by singing notes of Response played or sung by different musical movie, ‘Aladdin’. It was different pitches before singing musicians. The second part is helps protect our voices. written by Alan Menken and Tim heard as a comment about or an Standing up straight helps us to Rice. It has been covered many answer to what the first has project our voices. times by different artists over the Shouting could hurt our voices. sung. This mimics or makes fun of years. Singing the words loudly and how people talk back and forth Rainbow Connection clearly mean people can hear to each other. and enjoy our songs. Repetition Something happens over and Breathing in before the start of This is a song from the 1979 film over again. each line helps us sing with ‘The Muppet Movie’. It was control. Tempo How fast or slow the music is. written by Paul Williams and Dynamics How loud or quiet the music is.
  • Putinism: a Praetorian System?

    Putinism: a Praetorian System?

    Notes de l’Ifri Russie.Nei.Visions 106 Putinism: A Praetorian System? Jean-Robert RAVIOT March 2018 Russia/NIS Center The Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri) is a research center and a forum for debate on major international political and economic issues. Headed by Thierry de Montbrial since its founding in 1979, Ifri is a non-governmental, non-profit organization. As an independent think tank, Ifri sets its own research agenda, publishing its findings regularly for a global audience. Taking an interdisciplinary approach, Ifri brings together political and economic decision-makers, researchers and internationally renowned experts to animate its debate and research activities. The opinions expressed in this text are the responsibility of the author alone. This text is published with the support of DGRIS (Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy) under “Russia, Caucasus and Eastern Europe Observatory”. ISBN: 978-2-36567-808-7 © All rights reserved, Ifri, 2018 How to quote this document: Jean-Robert Raviot, “Putinism: A Praetorian System?”, Russie.Nei.Visions, No. 106, Ifri, March 2018. Ifri 27 rue de la Procession 75740 Paris Cedex 15—FRANCE Tel.: +33 (0)1 40 61 60 00—Fax: +33 (0)1 40 61 60 60 Email: [email protected] Website: Ifri.org Russie.Nei.Visions Russie.Nei.Visions is an online collection dedicated to Russia and the other new independent states (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan). Written by leading experts, these policy-oriented papers deal with strategic, political and economic issues. Author Jean-Robert Raviot is a doctor of political science with accreditation to supervise research and professor of contemporary Russian civilization at Paris Nanterre University.
  • The Commencement Exercises of the Academic Year 2020–21 Dickinson

    The Commencement Exercises of the Academic Year 2020–21 Dickinson

    The Commencement Exercises of the Academic Year 2020–21 Dickinson College Sunday, May 23, 2021 Two O’clock The Commencement Exercises he first Dickinson College Commencement exercises were held Clerical gowns were worn by the earliest faculty but disappeared T in the Presbyterian church on the town square, and the occasion early in the 19th century. Curiously, students at Dickinson adopted was something of a public holiday. Professors and students marched the academic robes at Commencement before faculty, who did not in procession, first from the college buildings in Liberty Alley and appear in gown and hood until the procession of 1904. Previous then from our present campus. Each graduate gave proof of his generations of graduating seniors were distinguished only by their learning by delivering an address in Latin or English, a practice that affiliation with one of the literary societies—the red rose of Belles continued through most of the 19th century. In later years, music was Lettres or the white rose of Union Philosophical. During today’s introduced as a restorative between orations, and as the number of ceremony, graduating seniors who studied abroad during their graduates increased, the final oratory was reduced to one guest Dickinson careers wear the flags of their host countries on their speaker, rewarded with an honorary doctorate. academic gowns. The gowns worn by participants hearken back to the monastic In the college’s early days, a Latin ritual was included in the robes of the Middle Ages. The hood—worn by clergy and students Commencement ceremony, beginning with an inquiry by the for warmth in drafty halls—was retained in specialized cases, such president to the trustees: “Placetne vobis, viri admodum generosi, ut as academic distinction.
  • Dead Heroes and Living Saints: Orthodoxy

    Dead Heroes and Living Saints: Orthodoxy

    Dead Heroes and Living Saints: Orthodoxy, Nationalism, and Militarism in Contemporary Russia and Cyprus By Victoria Fomina Submitted to Central European University Department of Sociology and Social Anthropology In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Supervisors: Professor Vlad Naumescu Professor Dorit Geva CEU eTD Collection Budapest, Hungary 2019 Budapest, Hungary Statement I hereby declare that this dissertation contains no materials accepted for any other degrees in any other institutions and no materials previously written and / or published by any other person, except where appropriate acknowledgement is made in the form of bibliographical reference. Victoria Fomina Budapest, August 16, 2019 CEU eTD Collection i Abstract This dissertation explores commemorative practices in contemporary Russia and Cyprus focusing on the role heroic and martyrical images play in the recent surge of nationalist movements in Orthodox countries. It follows two cases of collective mobilization around martyr figures – the cult of the Russian soldier Evgenii Rodionov beheaded in Chechen captivity in 1996, and two Greek Cypriot protesters, Anastasios Isaak and Solomos Solomou, killed as a result of clashes between Greek and Turkish Cypriot protesters during a 1996 anti- occupation rally. Two decades after the tragic incidents, memorial events organized for Rodionov and Isaak and Solomou continue to attract thousands of people and only seem to grow in scale, turning their cults into a platform for the production and dissemination of competing visions of morality and social order. This dissertation shows how martyr figures are mobilized in Russia and Cyprus to articulate a conservative moral project built around nationalism, militarized patriotism, and Orthodox spirituality.
  • Quintet/String Orchestra Repertoire

    Quintet/String Orchestra Repertoire

    Millington Strings Quintet Repertoire 2019 Title Composer A Chloris Reynaldo Hahn A Summer Place Percy Faith/Max Steiner A Thousand Years Hodges/Perri Adagietto fr Symphony # 5 Gustav Mahler Adagio Tomaso Albinoni Adagio Cantabile Ludwig van Beethoven Agnus Dei Johann Sebastian Bach Air (fr 2nd French Suite) Johann Sebastian Bach Air (fr Water Music) Georg Friedrich Handel Air (On The G String) Johann Sebastian Bach All Hail to Thee Ingemar Braennstroem All I Ask Of You Andrew Lloyd-Webber All I Want Is You Bono All You Need Is Love John Lennon/Paul McCartney Amazing Grace English/American Traditional Americana Suite, Mvt 1: 400 HP, Heavy Foot Stephen H Millington Americana Suite, Mvt 2: Foxy Stephen H Millington Americana Suite, Mvt 3: Starry Night, Starry Eyes Stephen H Millington Americana Suite, Mvt 4: Aretha Stephen H Millington And I Love Her John Lennon/Paul McCartney And So It Goes Billy Joel Andante (fr Water Music) Georg Friedrich Handel Andante Festivo Jean Sibelius Ang Tangi Kong Pag-Ibig Constancio de Guzman Anitra's Dance Edvard Grieg Aniversary Waltz Dave Franklin/Al Dubin April In Portugal Raul Ferrao Aria sopra la Bergamasca Marco Uccellini Tuesday, August 6, 2019 Page 1 of 14 Title Composer Arioso Johann Sebastian Bach Asher Bara Israeli Traditional Asher Boro Israeli Traditional Ashokan Farewell Jay Ungar At Last Mack Gordon/Harry Warren Ave Maria Johann Sebastian Bach/Charles Gounod Ave Maria Franz Schubert Bachianas # 5 Heitor Villa-Lobos Badinerie Johann Sebastian Bach Ballade Ciprian Porumbescu Be Thou My Vision
  • Russia 2020 Human Rights Report

    Russia 2020 Human Rights Report

    RUSSIA 2020 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Russian Federation has a highly centralized, authoritarian political system dominated by President Vladimir Putin. The bicameral Federal Assembly consists of a directly elected lower house (State Duma) and an appointed upper house (Federation Council), both of which lack independence from the executive. The 2016 State Duma elections and the 2018 presidential election were marked by accusations of government interference and manipulation of the electoral process, including the exclusion of meaningful opposition candidates. On July 1, a national vote held on constitutional amendments did not meet internationally recognized electoral standards. The Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Security Service, the Investigative Committee, the Office of the Prosecutor General, and the National Guard are responsible for law enforcement. The Federal Security Service is responsible for state security, counterintelligence, and counterterrorism, as well as for fighting organized crime and corruption. The national police force, under the Ministry of Internal Affairs, is responsible for combating all crime. The National Guard assists the Federal Security Service’s Border Guard Service in securing borders, administers gun control, combats terrorism and organized crime, protects public order, and guards important state facilities. The National Guard also participates in armed defense of the country’s territory in coordination with Ministry of Defense forces. Except in rare cases, security forces generally report to civilian authorities. National-level civilian authorities have, at best, limited control over security forces in the Republic of Chechnya, which are accountable only to the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. Members of the Russian security forces committed numerous human rights abuses.
  • Fifth Periodical Report Presented to the Secretary General of the Council of Europe in Accordance with Article 15 of the Charter

    Fifth Periodical Report Presented to the Secretary General of the Council of Europe in Accordance with Article 15 of the Charter

    Strasbourg, 28 June 2019 MIN-LANG (2019) PR 5 EUROPEAN CHARTER FOR REGIONAL OR MINORITY LANGUAGES Fifth periodical report presented to the Secretary General of the Council of Europe in accordance with Article 15 of the Charter ARMENIA FIFTH PERIODICAL REPORT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA IN ACCORDANCE WITH PARAGRAPH 1 OF ARTICLE 15 OF THE EUROPEAN CHARTER FOR REGIONAL OR MINORITY LANGUAGES Yerevan 2019 2 Contents INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 1 ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Practical steps taken at national level, summarising results of the fourth monitoring round of implementation of the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages: Analysis of the situation ................................................................................................................................ 6 Chapter 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 7 Measures taken and programmes implemented after the Fourth Report submitted by the Republic of Armenia on implementation of the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages: Steps taken — by articles ................................................................................................................ 7 Annexes ....................................................................................................................................
  • Georgia's Information Environment Through the Lens

    Georgia's Information Environment Through the Lens

    GEORGIA’S INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE LENS OF RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE PREPARED BY THE NATO STRATEGIC COMMMUNICATIONS CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE 1 Georgia’s Information Environment through the Lens of Russia’s Influence Project Director: Elīna Lange-Ionatamišvili Project Manager: James McMillan Content Editors: Elīna Lange-Ionatamišvili, James McMillan Language Editors: Tomass Pildagovičs, James McMillan Authors: Nino Bolkvadze, Ketevan Chachava, Gogita Ghvedashvili, Elīna Lange-Ionat- amišvili, James McMillan, Nana Kalandarishvili, Anna Keshelashvili, Natia Kuprashvili, Tornike Sharashenidze, Tinatin Tsomaia Design layout: Tornike Lordkipanidze We would like to thank our anonymous peer reviewers from King’s College London for their generous contribution. ISBN: 978-9934-564-36-9 This publication does not represent the opinions or policies of NATO or NATO StratCom COE. © All rights reserved by the NATO StratCom COE. Reports may not be copied, reproduced, distributed or publicly displayed without reference to the NATO StratCom COE. The views expressed here do not represent the views of NATO. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................4 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................4 CHAPTER 1: GEORGIA’S STRATEGIC INTERESTS ................................................6 By Tornike Sharashenidze CHAPTER 2: RUSSIA’S STRATEGIC INTERESTS IN GEORGIA .......................... 18 By Nana Kalandarishvili
  • Anais-Marin-Union-State-Of-Belarus

    Anais-Marin-Union-State-Of-Belarus

    ANAÏS MARIN THE UNION STATE OF BELARUS AND RUSSIA. MYTHS AND REALITIES OF POLITICAL-MILITARY INTEGRATION © 2020 Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis www.vilniusinstitute.lt ISBN 978-609-8281-00-2 COVER: Presidential Press and Information Office THE UNION STATE OF BELARUS AND RUSSIA – BY ANAÏS MARIN TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1 THE UNION STATE AT TWENTY ........................................................................................... 2 A dead-born vanity project ..................................................................................................... 3 Irreconcilable views ................................................................................................................. 3 From stalemate to ultimatum… and back to square one ....................................................... 5 DEBUNKING THREE BROTHERHOOD MYTHS ....................................................................... 7 Myth #1. “Belarus is Russia’s closest military ally” ................................................................. 7 Brothers in arms .................................................................................................................. 7 Cracks in the façade ............................................................................................................ 8 Belarus’ security dilemma and entrapment ........................................................................ 9 Disputes
  • 2020 Recital- Costume Details

    2020 Recital- Costume Details

    2020 Recital- Costume Details Class Song Artist Costume Description Hair Tights Style/Color Shoes Adult Adv Tap Another One Bites the Queen Black blazer with silver sparkle Low ponytail N/A Black tap shoes Dust sleeves, no tights Adult Beg/Inter Tap War James Horner Blue dress Low ponytail Light suntan Black tap shoes convertible Adult Beg/Inter Ballet Rewrite the Stars Zendaya and Zac Efron performed by Teal dress Low ponytail Light suntan Pink ballet shoes The Piano Guys convertible Adult Hip Hop Ladies through the Whitney Houston, Janet Jackson, Black pants, sparkly tank top High ponytail N/A Black sneakers/jazz shoes decades Rhianna and Lizzo (Multi) with black tank top underneath. Long black socks, tank, no tights Adult Inter/Adv Jazz 100% Pure Love Crystal Waters Sequin dress with attached High ponytail Light suntan stirrup Half sole biketard Adult Modern Westworld Ramin Djawadi Multi: Black Cape (all) 3: Blue and Low ponytail Light suntan stirrup Half sole white unitard: (2): skirt with white top. Alegria Dance Company Yellow Coldplay performed by Brittin Lane Yellow dress with a black leotard Low parted ponytail Light suntan stirrup Half sole under Alegria Dance Company Your Peace Will Make Us Audrey Assad Featuring Urban Nude dress with black leotard Low parted ponytail Light suntan stirrup Half sole One Doxology under Ballet 2/3 Kingdom Dance Alan Menken from the Tangled Purple and pink tutu Half up half down Ballet pink convertible Pink canvas ballet shoes soundtrack tights Ballet 4 December Tchaikovsky Emerald green euro tutu
  • Snapshot Paper Template Feb 17

    Snapshot Paper Template Feb 17

    19 January 2021 Russian New Historical Discourse Author: LTC Arto Hirvela, FIN Army, CCJ5 CSAG The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of a number of international officers within the Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Central Command, nor of the nations represented within the CSAG or any other governmental agency. Key Points • The Kremlin’s new historical narrative aims to legitimize their authoritarian practices by sacralizing the power of the state • Kremlin is once again capitalizing on sentiments ever present among the Russian populous to rally around the flag and repel ancient enemies’ encroachment • Putin utilizes narrative of Russia being the center of sacred European and religious traditions • Actions against new historical narrative in Europe have escalated his historical revisionism • Russian people’s perceptions of their own history are changing Introduction The Russian regime (Putin especially) has made victory over Nazism a cornerstone of their national ideology and legitimacy. President Putin deems the collapse of the Soviet Union as the major geopolitical disaster of the 20th century.1 Putin has taken a strong personal interest in rewriting or ´modernizing´ Russian history for the purpose of restoring the country’s pride as a great power. The primacy of this messaging is evident during Russia’s reform vote. President Putin provided the Russian public no vision for the future of the country under his continued leadership; his focus was firmly