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National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't

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National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL WILL to FIGHT Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t Michael J. McNerney, Ben Connable, S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Natasha Lander, Marek N. Posard, Jasen J. Castillo, Dan Madden, Ilana Blum, Aaron Frank, Benjamin J. Fernandes, In Hyo Seol, Christopher Paul, Andrew Parasiliti For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2477 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0053-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Landing ships putting cargo ashore on Omaha Beach, mid-June, 1944/Photograph 26-G 2517 from the U.S. Coast Guard Collection in the U.S. National Archives. Cover design by Eileen Delson La Russo Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis as part of a project titled Assessing and Influencing National Will to Fight, which is sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Plans, and Training, U.S. Army (G-3/5/7). The pur- pose of the project was to provide a generalizable analytic method to assess national will to fight, to use that method to provide an assessment in a Korean Peninsula scenario and a scenario involving Russia and members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and to provide recommendations for the best methods to influence national will to fight. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD167561. This research was conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doc- trine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corpora- tion, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and com- plies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Instruc- tion 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...................................................................................vii Summary .............................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments .................................................................................. xix Abbreviations ........................................................................................ xxi CHAPTER ONE What Is Will to Fight and Why Does It Matter? ............................................... 1 Purpose of the Study ................................................................................... 1 What Is Will to Fight? ................................................................................. 4 Does Will Really Matter in Practice? ............................................................... 6 U.S. Experience with National Will to Fight ......................................................10 Recognizing How Will to Fight Matters ...........................................................13 Can National Will Be Analyzed? ...................................................................15 Using Mixed Methods Is the Best Approach to Understanding Will ..........................16 Structure of the Report ...............................................................................18 CHAPTER TWO Why Do Governments Persevere in War? .......................................................21 A Word About Our Literature Review .............................................................21 A Word About Frameworks and Models .......................................................... 22 From Framework to Exploratory Model .......................................................... 23 How to Measure National Will to Fight .......................................................... 34 Hypotheses to Help Analyze the Variables in Our National Will to Fight Model........... 36 CHAPTER THREE Exploring the Model Across the 20th Century .................................................37 Purpose of the Case Studies .........................................................................37 Case Study Summary .................................................................................39 Unpacking Our Seven Factors ..................................................................... 42 Unpacking Our Four Contexts ..................................................................... 48 v vi National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t Unpacking Our Four Mechanisms .................................................................52 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 56 CHAPTER FOUR The Korean Peninsula: Will to Fight and the Arc of History ...............................59 Korean War ............................................................................................59 Contemporary National Will to Fight .............................................................71 Conclusion .............................................................................................79 CHAPTER FIVE Russian Will to Fight and the Arc of History ..................................................83 World War I ...........................................................................................85 World War II ......................................................................................... 87 First and Second Chechen Wars ....................................................................91 Russia Today .......................................................................................... 97 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 104 CHAPTER SIX Findings and Recommendations ................................................................ 109 Overall Findings .................................................................................... 111 Hypothesis 1: Factors ............................................................................... 112 Hypothesis 2: Contexts ............................................................................. 113 Hypothesis 3: Economics .......................................................................... 114 Hypothesis 4: Political Mechanisms .............................................................. 114 Hypothesis 5: Capabilities and Casualties ....................................................... 117 Recommendations .................................................................................. 117 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 121 ONLINE APPENDIXES Available for download at www.rand.org/t/RR2477 A. What Our Literature Review Told Us B. Case Study Selection and Additional Details on Cases References ........................................................................................... 123 Figures and Tables Figures S.1. National Will to Fight Framework ....................................................xii S.2. Centers of Gravity and Variables in the National Will to Fight Exploratory Model ......................................................................xiii S.3. Summary of Overall Findings......................................................... xiv S.4. Summary of Overarching Recommendations ....................................... xvi S.5. Summary of Mechanism-Based Recommendations ............................... xvii 1.1. Definition of National Will to Fight ................................................... 5 1.2. Winston Churchill ........................................................................ 7 1.3. Ho Chi Minh ............................................................................. 9 1.4. 2015 National Military Strategy Continuum of Conflict Concept ...............12 2.1. National Will to Fight Framework ..................................................
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