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The Demography of Cyprus, 1881-1982

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The Demography of Cyprus, 1881-1982 1 THE DEMOGRAPHY OF CYPRUS, 1881-1982 A thesis submitted to the University of London for the degree of doctor of philosophy By Georgia Verropoulou Population Studies The London School of Economics and Political Science University of London December 1997 UMI Number: U111317 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U111317 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 2 ABSTRACT This research aims at determining the demographic characteristics of the population of Cyprus over 1881-1982, using all available data from censuses, registration and surveys. The thesis consists of two main parts. The first part focuses on the period from 1881 to 1960 and refers to the entire population. The second part deals with the period after 1960 and mainly focuses on the majority Greek Cypriot population, virtually no information being available for the Turkish minority after this time; the island was partitioned between Greeks and Turks in 1974. Chapter 1 describes the objectives of the thesis and the data available. Chapters 2-7 refer only to the period up to 1960. Chapter 2 deals with the growth of the population and changes in the distribution by age and sex. In Chapter 3 it is established that mortality transition was under way by the 1880s while it is argued that female mortality was slightly higher than male mortality before 1911. Chapter 4 traces changes in marriage patterns after 1911 and their relationship to changing ratios of males to females. In Chapter 5 it is argued that although fertility had decreased slightly by the 1940s, an uninterrupted declining trend was only established in the 1950s. In Chapter 6 migration is considered; emigration from Cyprus was substantial in the period 1955-1960. In Chapter 7 differences between Greeks and Turks in mortality, fertility and nuptiality are examined. In Chapter 8 it is established that fertility for Greek Cypriots had reached low levels though above replacement by 197 6 while mortality had reached low levels by 1982. There was substantial emigration between 1974 and 1978. In Chapter 9 the validity of the mortality and fertility estimates is assessed by using them to project the population of Cyprus from 1921 onwards. Chapter 10 presents a summary of the major findings. 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to the State Scholarship Foundation of Greece as this work would have been impossible without their funding. I feel indebted to Mr. Chris Langford for his assiduous supervision throughout the various stages of this thesis. I am particularly grateful to him for teaching me to write as well as for his sound advice and encouragement. I would like to express my appreciation to the Population Investigation Committee for funding my visit to the Department of Statistics and Research in Cyprus where I obtained important unpublished material that enabled a more detailed analysis of the post-1960 period to be under taken. I would also like to thank Mr. A. Agathangelou and Mrs. I . Chappa for providing me with that material. I am obliged to Prof. I. Hainis and to the late Prof. G. Tziafetas for their advice and moral support. Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to my family in Greece and to my husband for their understanding and helpfulness. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Title 1 Abstract 2 Acknowledgements 3 Table of Contents 4 List of Tables 11 List of Figures 22 Chapter Is Introduction 23 1.1 A brief account of geography and history 23 of Cyprus 1.2 The population of Cyprus before 1881 25 1.3 Previous research on the population of 27 Cyprus 1.4 The thesis 30 1.4.1 Objectives of the research 3 0 1.4.2 Available data 3 0 1.4.3 The structure of the thesis 35 Chapter 2: Population size and distribution by 37 age and sex, 1881-1960 2.1 Growth of the population and changes in 37 the distribution by age and sex 2.2 Growth of the population and changes in 41 the distribution by age and sex in urban and rural areas of Cyprus 2.3 Growth of the population and changes in 45 the distribution by sex in the different districts of Cyprus Appendix 2.1: Percentage of the population of a 48 district resident in the principal town of the district in census years 5 Chapter 3: Levels and trends in mortality, 1881- 50 1960 3.1 Mortality levels and trends based on 50 registration data 3.1.1 Year-by-year crude death rates and infant 50 mortality rates 3.1.2 Crude death rates and infant mortality 53 rates for census years 3.2 Mortality levels and trends based on 55 indirect methods 3.2.1 Estimation of post-childhood mortality 56 using model stable age distributions 3.2.2 Estimation of intercensal adult mortality 59 using successive census age distributions 3.2.3 Estimation of child mortality from 65 information about children ever born and children surviving 3.2.4 Estimation of a life table for the early 68 1940s by smoothing and interpolation of an incomplete set of survivorship probabilities 3.3 Conclusion 69 Appendix 3.1: CDR and IMR for Cyprus, 1901-1960; 73 annual estimates based on registered deaths and infant deaths Appendix 3.2: CDR and IMR for the urban and rural 74 areas of Cyprus, 1921, 1931, 1946 and 1960 Appendix 3.3: Indirect methods used for the 75 estimation of mortality Appendix 3.4: Sex differentials in mortality, 82 1881-1921: a genuine feature of the population of Cyprus? Appendix 3.5: Average parities and proportions of 84 children dead based on numbers of children ever born and children surviving reported in the 1946 and 1960 censuses 6 Appendix 3.6: Estimation of a life table by 86 smoothing and interpolation of an incomplete set of survivorship probabilities Appendix 3.7: Estimation of the completeness of 87 registration of adult deaths, 1946 Chapter 4: Levels and trends in nuptiality, 1881- 90 1960 4.1 Year-by-year crude marriage rates and 90 general marriage rates 4.2 Hajnal's singulate mean age at marriage 91 and Coale's index Im for females for census years 4.3 Conclusion 98 Appendix 4.1: CMR and GMR for Cyprus, 1903-1960; 100 annual estimates based on numbers of registered marriages Appendix 4.2: Computation of SMAM 101 Chapter 5: Levels and trends in fertility, 1881- 102 1960 5.1 Fertility levels and trends based on 102 registration data 5.1.1 Year-by-year crude birth rates and general 102 fertility rates 5.1.2 Crude birth rates, general fertility 104 rates, general marital fertility rates, Coale's fertility indices and child-woman ratios for census years 5.2 Fertility levels and trends based on 115 parity progression ratios 5.3 Fertility levels and trends based on 121 indirect methods 5.3.1 Estimation of fertility using model stable 121 age distributions 7 5.3.2 Estimation of birth rates by reverse 124 survival of the population under age 10 5.3.3 Estimation of fertility from information 128 about children ever born (the Brass P/F ratio method) 5.4 Conclusion 130 Appendix 5.1: CBR and GFR for Cyprus, 1901-1960; 134 annual estimates based on registered births Appendix 5.2: Natural fertility and the Coale- 135 Trussell model of marital fertility Appendix 5.3: Fertility measures for the urban 137 and rural areas of Cyprus, 1921, 1931, 1946 and 1960 Appendix 5.4: Indirect methods used for the 138 estimation of fertility Appendix 5.5: Adjusted age-specific fertility 142 rates (ASFRs) for 1946 and 1960, using the Brass P/F ratio method Chapter 6: Levels and trends in migration, 1881- 146 1960 6.1 International migration levels and trends 146 based on registration and census data 6.2 Internal migration levels and trends based 156 on census data Appendix 6.1: Characteristics of emigrants, 1955- 165 1960 Appendix 6.2: Characteristics of immigrants, 166 1955-1960 Appendix 6.3: The Cypriot born population 167 enumerated in England and Wales at census years, 1931-1961 8 Chapter 7: Differentials between the districts of 168 Cyprus and the ethnic groups, 1881-1960 7.1 Differentials between the districts of 168 Cyprus 7.2 Differentials between the ethnic groups of 177 Cyprus and how they compare with Greece and Turkey 7.2.1 Differentials between the ethnic groups of 177 Cyprus 7.2.2 Mortality, nuptiality and fertility in 190 Greece and Turkey for the period before 1960 and how they compare with the ethnic groups of Cyprus Appendix 7.1: Computation of SMAM for the 196 religious communities, 1946 Chapter 8: Characteristics of the Greek Cypriot 197 population after 1960 8.1 Population size and distribution by age 197 and sex, 1960-1982 8.1.1 Growth of the population and changes in 197 the distribution by age and sex 8.1.2 Changes in the distribution of the 201 population by age and sex in urban and rural areas of Cyprus 8.2 Levels and trends in mortality, 1960-1982 204 8.2.1 Crude death rates and infant mortality 204 rates 8.2.2 Mortality levels and trends based on 207 indirect methods 8.2.3 Conclusion 220 8.3 Levels and trends in nuptiality, 1960-1982 222 8.4 Levels and trends in fertility, 1960-1982 231 8.4.1 Fertility levels and trends based on 231 registration data 8.4.2 Fertility levels and trends based on 239 indirect
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