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A Technique for Determining Viable Military Logistics Support Alternatives A TECHNIQUE FOR DETERMINING VIABLE MILITARY LOGISTICS SUPPORT ALTERNATIVES A Thesis Presented to The Academic Faculty by Jesse Stuart Hester In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy School of Aerospace Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology May 2009 Copyright © Jesse Stuart Hester 2009 A TECHNIQUE FOR DETERMINING VIABLE MILITARY LOGISTICS SUPPORT ALTERNATIVES Approved by: Prof. Dimitri Mavris, Adviser Prof. George Vachtsevanos School of Aerospace Engineering School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Prof. Daniel Schrage Dr. Janel Nixon School of Aerospace Engineering School of Aerospace Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Danielle Soban Mr. Philip Fahringer School of Aerospace Engineering Center for Innovation, Suffolk, Virginia Georgia Institute of Technology Lockheed Martin Corporation Date Approved:__4 March 2009 __ In Memory of My Mother, Victoria & My Father, Tom ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I first would like to thank my entire thesis committee individually. To Prof. Dimitri Mavris, for the opportunities not only given to me here at ASDL, but also his flexibility in allowing me to pursue another degree outside of Aerospace. Nowhere else would I have likely been afforded such an opportunity to personally and professionally develop. To Prof. Daniel Schrage, for lending an ear and making time during his busy schedule to listen to my ideas and progress reports. To Prof. George Vachtsevanos, for his guidance and direction in areas foreign to me and insistence that I bound the problem to a manageable realm. To Dr. Danielle Soban for her advice and input through out the doctoral process. To Dr. Janel Nixon, for her review/editing from the beginning, recommendations into areas that needed more emphasis, and for lending her ear. To Phil Fahringer for his discussions that helped me evolve my thesis topic and ideas in logistics. Throughout the six years here at ASDL so many people who have had an impact on me by teaching, assisting, and being patient with me when I was in need of further explanation on a subject or approach to a problem. To my fellow classmates, the intense studying and discussion prior to the qualification exams (plural) to enter into the PhD program was instrumental in my learning and helpful in a wide variety of ways; thank you to all who had that impact. For this particular research effort I would be remiss if I did not thank Doug Brown for his assistance with my MatLab questions and in debugging my MatLab GUI. I would also like to thank to Steve Upton, the creator of Xstudy and OldMcData , for his help. Finally, I would also like to thank the people I communicated with from the Naval Post Graduate School who were very forthcoming with information, data, and software that aided in my experiment executions for this work. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................. xi LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... xii LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................. xv SUMMARY...................................................................................................................xviii 1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Motivation........................................................................................................... 2 1.1.1 Military Logistics Defined.......................................................................... 4 1.1.2 The US Military and its Role in the World................................................. 7 1.1.3 Seabasing .................................................................................................. 11 1.1.4 Distributed Operations (DO)..................................................................... 14 1.1.5 Seabasing and DO Together ..................................................................... 15 1.1.6 Joint Operations and Ramifications for the Military ................................ 17 1.2 Current Environment for the US Military......................................................... 18 1.3 Network Centric Warfare.................................................................................. 21 1.3.1 Modernizing the Current Logistics System .............................................. 24 1.3.2 Sense and Respond Logistics.................................................................... 28 1.4 Chapter Summary and Conclusion ................................................................... 31 1.5 Thesis Organization .......................................................................................... 32 2 LITERATURE SEARCH OF METHODOLOGIES & TOOLS.............................. 34 2.1 The Importance of Forecasting: Supply vs. Demand........................................ 36 v 2.2 System of Systems (SOS) ................................................................................. 41 2.3 Knowledge Engineering.................................................................................... 49 2.3.1 Soft Computing......................................................................................... 50 2.3.2 Analogical Reasoning (AR)...................................................................... 51 2.3.3 Case Based Reasoning (CBR) .................................................................. 52 2.4 Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) Methods...................................... 55 2.4.1 Distance Metrics ....................................................................................... 56 2.4.2 Technique for Ordered Preference by Similarity (TOPSIS)..................... 57 2.4.3 Overall Evaluation Criterion (OEC) ......................................................... 57 2.5 Design of Experiments (DOE).......................................................................... 58 2.6 Scenario Approach............................................................................................ 59 2.7 Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABM/S)............................................ 60 2.8 Meta Models ..................................................................................................... 62 2.8.1 Response Surface Equations (RSE).......................................................... 62 2.8.2 Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) ........................................................... 63 2.9 Monte Carlo Simulation.................................................................................... 65 2.10 Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Sets ............................................................................. 66 2.11 Fuzzy - Neural Networks.................................................................................. 73 2.12 Decision Support System (DSS)....................................................................... 77 2.13 Literature Search of Tools ................................................................................ 78 2.13.1 Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models............. 78 2.13.2 News Vendor Model................................................................................. 80 2.13.3 Fuzzy Cooperative Co-evolutionary (CoCo)............................................ 83 vi 2.14 Modeling & Simulation Tools for Military Applications................................. 84 2.14.1 Logistic Planning in the Armed Forces Today - OPLOGPLN................. 84 2.14.2 Analogical Hypothesis Elaborator for Activity Detection (AHEAD) ...... 86 2.14.3 Enhanced Irreducible Semi-Autonomous Adaptive Combat (EINSTein) 89 2.14.4 Map Aware Non Uniform Automata (MANA) ........................................ 91 2.14.5 Pythagoras................................................................................................. 93 2.15 Chapter Summary ............................................................................................. 95 3 TECHNICAL CHALLENGES, RESEARCH QUESTIONS, & HYPOTHESES... 96 3.1 Re-familiarization of the Problem .................................................................... 97 3.2 Paradigm Shift in Military Logistics and Architecture Solutions..................... 98 3.2.1 The Human in the Loop (HITL) Factor .................................................... 99 3.2.2 Top-down Planning................................................................................. 101 3.2.3 Bottom-up Planning................................................................................ 102 3.2.4 Conclusion: Which is better?.................................................................. 103 3.3 Technical Challenges...................................................................................... 104 3.4 Research Questions (RQ) & Hypotheses........................................................ 106 3.4.1 Hypothesis 1............................................................................................ 107 3.4.2 Hypothesis 2............................................................................................ 109 3.4.3 Hypothesis 3............................................................................................ 111 3.4.4 Hypothesis 4...........................................................................................
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