Final Report
Town of Windsor Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study
Prepared for:
Town of Windsor
Prepared by:
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
September 2010
EPS #19141
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS ...... 1
Background...... 2 Summary of Findings ...... 3 Recommended Strategies and Actions ...... 6
2. DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS ...... 9
Population and Household Growth Trends ...... 9 Age, Ethnicity, and Income ...... 9 Job Profile...... 14 Commute and Work Location Patterns ...... 14 ABAG Population and Employment Projections ...... 18 Alternative Household Growth Projections ...... 18
3. RETAIL MARKET AREA AND CONTEXT...... 21
Regional Retail Context...... 21 Local Retail Context ...... 21
4. TRADE AREA BOUNDARIES...... 27
Definition of Windsor’s Trade Areas ...... 27
5. RETAIL MARKET ASSESSMENT...... 31
Retail Sales by Location ...... 31 Current Retail Demand ...... 31 Total Retail Demand...... 41 Future Retail Demand Potential...... 41
6. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ...... 47
Southern Windsor ...... 47 Downtown Windsor ...... 51 Northern Windsor...... 54
Table of Contents
7. BELL VILLAGE ...... 56
Bell Village Project Retail Mix...... 56 Assessment of Impact of Bell Village ...... 60
8. VISITOR-SERVING RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY MARKET ASSESSMENT ...... 61
Branding and Place-Making ...... 61 Downtown Retail...... 61 Meeting/Conference Facility...... 63 Boutique Hotel...... 64
List of Tables
Table 1: Population, Households, Jobs, and Household Income Estimates and Forecasts...... 10
Table 2: Age Distribution in Town of Windsor and Sonoma County...... 11
Table 3: Windsor and Sonoma County Population by Ethnicity...... 12
Table 4: Household Income Distribution ...... 13
Table 5: Town of Windsor and Sonoma County Distribution of Jobs...... 15
Table 6: Town of Windsor Major Employers...... 16
Table 7: Town of Windsor and Larkfield-Wikiup Commute Patterns, 2008 ...... 17
Table 8: Town of Windsor Alternative 2035 Growth Projections ...... 20
Table 9: Competitive Shopping Centers ...... 23
Table 10: Primary and Secondary Trade Area Demographics Used in Analysis ...... 30
Table 11: Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$) ...... 32
Table 12: Town of Windsor Taxable Retail Sales, Detailed Account-Level Data, FY 2007/08 .... 34
Table 13: 2008 Household Retail Sales and Estimated Demand in Windsor ...... 36
Table 14: Household Spending by Category Compared with State, 2008 ...... 37
Table 15: 2008 Estimated Retail Demand for Select Categories in Windsor (in Square Feet) ... 40
Table 16: 2008 Household Retail Sales and Estimated Demand in Total Trade Area ...... 42
Table 17: Estimated Actual Sales and Retail Demand...... 43
Table 18: Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035 ...... 44
Table 19: Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035 (in Square Feet) ...... 46
Table 20: Competitive Supply of Big Box Retail ...... 50
Table 21: Grocery Store Demand Analysis, 2035 ...... 57
List of Tables
Table 22: Windsor Grocery Store Demand Analysis Based on EPS Household Growth Projections ...... 59
Table 23: Visitor-Generated Tax Receipts by County ...... 62
Table 24: Town of Windsor Hotel Market Indicators, 2010 ...... 66
List of Figures
Figure 1: Windsor in Regional Context...... 22
Figure 2: Windsor Shopping Areas ...... 25
Figure 3: Primary and Secondary Trade Areas ...... 28
Figure 4: Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$) ...... 33
Figure 5: Retail Sales and Estimated Demand ...... 38
Figure 6: Windsor Downtown Area ...... 52
1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Retail conditions in the Town of Windsor are presently mixed, with some positive indicators amid other weak indicators—both of which signal opportunities to improve the Town’s retail performance through targeted strategies. Consistent with the downturn in the national economy, retail sales in the Town of Windsor have weakened in recent years. Yet even with the overall decline in sales, there are categories of retail in the Town that are performing very well. Actual retail sales in the Town of Windsor exceed household spending on retail goods and services, suggesting that, at gross levels, Windsor is serving the retail needs of its residents and attracting additional sales from outside the Town.1
The Town has been and continues to be very successful at meeting residents’ demand for local goods and personal services with an adequate supply of grocery stores, banks, general merchandise, building materials, and health and personal care stores in Town. Retail uses are distributed among various areas of the Town, including Old Downtown, Shiloh Road, Old Redwood Highway east of Highway 101, Old Redwood Highway north of downtown, and Shiloh Road/Village interchange. Downtown Windsor has a successful array of smaller, primarily independently-owned retailers that give diversity and character to its core. However, the retail mix could be strengthened to better serve resident needs and visitors.
The Town is undersupplied in clothing and shoe stores; furniture and home furnishings stores; auto-related stores; and electronics and appliance stores. In these categories, the Town is leaking sales to other communities, primarily nearby Santa Rosa. The Town is also leaking sales in the category of eating and drinking places, perhaps to Healdsburg and communities north of Windsor. For some types of specialty goods, such as women’s apparel, Windsor residents may travel beyond Santa Rosa to enjoy shopping experiences in Marin and even San Francisco.
However, there are significant opportunity sites available in the Town that are explored in detail in this study. The retail industry is dynamic and requires near-constant reinvention to stay ahead of competitive trends and consumer demand. If developed and strategically leased, Windsor could be well positioned to recapture some of the sales it is presently leaking and attract new sales. This retail market analysis and positioning strategy evaluates the potential role of Windsor in the context of the subregional market, considers current and future retail potentials at the Town’s retail opportunity sites that will best enhance the Town’s competitive position within the larger market area and deliver a quality mix of goods and services to Town residents, residents from surrounding communities, and visitors.
1 The Town of Windsor has an overall capture rate of 165 percent. The performance of specific categories is discussed in subsequent chapters. Alternative evaluation metrics (sales per household compared against the statewide average) are also incorporated to help explain results on a category by category basis. See Tables 13 and 14 for calculations.
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Economic Context
An over-arching issue currently facing growth and development in the Town of Windsor, as elsewhere in the region, is the ongoing national recession. Market conditions are weak across the range of potential uses, reflecting the economic downturn, instability in the credit and capital markets, fall off in retail expenditures, and declining housing prices. These conditions are expected to continue for the immediate future with a general consensus that it will be 2012 at the earliest before there is a return to more stabilized market conditions, although the precise timing may differ substantially by region.
Although the current economic environment is an important issue affecting development feasibility, this analysis is provided in the context of a long-term Retail Positioning Strategy and thus focuses on longer-term trends. Given Windsor’s general position as an attractive family- oriented community in the Sonoma County wine country and the region’s resilient economy, it can be expected that local market conditions will be stronger than those of other more central portions of the State and will adjust successfully to future changes.
Background
As noted in the December 2008 Windsor Economic Development Strategic Plan (EDSP), the Town of Windsor’s five primary commercial centers lack cohesiveness and retail identity. The EDSP recommended that Town staff work to “develop a clear market position and strategy for Windsor’s most concentrated commercial areas to ensure retail development is complementary, well-planned and fills a needed gap.”2 The Town retained Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) to prepare a retail market analysis and develop a retail positioning strategy for the Town. This report summarizes the analysis of and conclusions regarding retail development conditions and opportunities in the Town of Windsor.
This document contains recommended strategies to help position the Town of Windsor within the subregional marketplace, and formulates development and tenanting strategies for various retail locations throughout the Town. The positioning strategy is intended to:
• Maximize retail sales capture to preserve and expand retail sales tax revenues that support the provision of government services.
• Influence the type and quality of retailers to attract local and regional shoppers and improve the overall retail mix in specific commercial districts.
• Craft retail and commercial strategies that will help drive successful redevelopment Downtown and in other locations in the Town.
Additionally, EPS has used the data and findings of the market analysis to evaluate the potential impacts of the retail component of the Bell Village Project on existing retail in Windsor, including vacant retail-zoned land particularly in the Downtown area. This analysis also evaluates the level of market support for the proposed retail.
2 Windsor Economic Development Strategic Plan, Section 5.3, page 53, December 2008.
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Summary of Findings
1. Desirable quality of life factors have contributed to a rapid expansion of the Town’s population during the past decade. Since 2000, the Town’s population increased by about 4,900 people or 21 percent, while the number of households in the Town grew by 1,700 households or 22 percent.
2. Households in the Town are younger, more diverse, and wealthier than households in the County. The Town of Windsor is largely comprised of families with children, with 82 percent of the Town’s population under age 55. The Town of Windsor has higher incomes than the County overall. Sonoma County’s median income was about $64,000, and Windsor’s was roughly $78,000, estimated as an average for the three years between 2006 and 2008.
3. The ABAG projections for Windsor indicate the Town’s households are expected to increase by 1,080 new units between 2010 and 2035, or 0.4 percent per year, which would mark a dramatic slowdown from the previous decade. During the 10-year period between 2000 and 2010, the number of households in the Town of Windsor increased by 1,700, from 7,589 to 9,290, or 22 percent. During the next 25 years, ABAG projects that the number of new households will increase by less than two-thirds the amount realized in the past decade, or 1,080 new households, and EPS believes that this projection significantly understates the amount of growth the market will support.
4. EPS recommends reconsidering the ABAG projections for this exercise and assuming that new units will increase by 3,000 Townwide between 2010 and 2035. If they understate actual growth potential, relying on ABAG’s projections for planning purposes could compromise the Town’s process and objectives. EPS’s recommendation translates to an increase of approximately 32 percent above the current number of households in the Town, or 1.0 to 1.1 percent per year – roughly half the growth rate experienced in the last decade. An increase of 3,000 new units falls well within the physical capacity of the Town under current General Plan policies and is also in compliance with the Town’s Growth Ordinance.
5. Consistent with national economic trends, retail sales in the Town of Windsor peaked in 2006 before falling in 2007, 2008, and 2009. Retail sales data provided by SBE shows retail sales from retail outlets (i.e., physical stores) in the Town peaked at $254 million in 2006, dropping to 2003 levels of $213 million in 2008. As a category, Eating and Drinking Places managed to post increases each year between 2003 and 2008.
6. A retail capture/leakage analysis comparing local household spending to actual local sales indicates that the Town is capturing more outside spending than it is losing to other jurisdictions. The current households in Windsor spend nearly $230 million on retail goods and services. The retail stores in Windsor generate $378 million in sales, although this number includes business-to-business sales and spending by visitors. EPS adjusted the Town’s 2007/2008
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retail sales account data to exclude business-to-business sales, resulting in total Townwide sales of approximately $311 million – still more than is being spent by Windsor households alone.
7. While retail in Windsor is generally strong, several retail categories—such as apparel stores and eating and drinking places—are “leaking” sales to other jurisdictions. Windsor’s net capture of retail sales is a positive indicator, but capture in one retail category can off-set leakage in another, obfuscating important variances. Windsor performs exceptionally well in the General Merchandise, Building Material and Farm Implements, and Food Stores categories. Retail categories that are leaking sales to other communities include Apparel Stores; Home Furnishings and Appliances; Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies; and Eating and Drinking Places. These leakage categories represent opportunities for new retail development in Windsor.
Windsor’s Old Downtown is a particularly appropriate location for Apparel Stores and Eating and Drinking Places, as these tend to be relatively small-scale businesses that benefit from programmed spaces such as the Town Green, which attracts casual shoppers and diners through its evening and weekend events. Because the development and buildout of restaurants requires special considerations (e.g., restrooms, kitchens, adequate venting), they should be anticipated early in the planning process. These specialized provisions are expensive and difficult to accommodate once the building is already constructed.
8. Based on population and employment projections in 2035, Townwide retail demand in 2035 is estimated to increase by 81 percent. The estimate considers aggregate household retail expenditures, aggregate employee retail spending, and aggregate business retail expenditures, but does not reflect future increases in the capture of visitor spending. This increase reflects real growth in household income above inflation. As a way of bracketing this projection, the same calculation is made using ABAG’s household growth projections and assuming no real growth in household income and results in an 18 percent increase in Townwide retail demand.
Assuming average retail sales of $390 per square foot, this increase in spending translates to demand for approximately 551,000 square feet of retail space Townwide in the next 25 years. Though it has not been approved yet, the Bell Village project proposes to offer 65,500 square feet of retail space (or nearly 12 percent of future demand Townwide).
9. A new specialty grocery store—one that is focused on high quality, local and organic produce and specializing in prepared foods—could be successful in the Town of Windsor, particularly in the Downtown area. The analysis of household spending and retail sales flows suggests insufficient demand for a new conventional grocery store, meaning that a new conventional grocery store is likely to take sales away from existing stores rather than serve latent or new demand. However, area experts report that Windsor shoppers leave Windsor to purchase specialty grocery goods from retailers not present in Windsor, such as Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, and Costco. Because of relatively high household incomes in the Town of Windsor and the preference for specialty items that typically accompanies high incomes, it is possible that a small-format,
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quality grocery store offering local, organic produce and specializing in prepared foods could retain some of this lost local spending and capture additional wine-country visitor spending in the near-term in the Town of Windsor—particularly in the Downtown area. In the longer term, EPS prepared a grocery demand analysis and found that using EPS’s household growth projections, an additional 27,000 square feet of grocery retail could be supported by 2035.
10. The amount of retail proposed at the Bell Village site represents nearly 12 percent of the total retail square footage required to meet Townwide demand during the next 25 years and could affect the pace of absorption of future retail. Presently, about 16 percent of the Town’s retail supply is concentrated in the Downtown Area. Given the availability of other more traditional locations for “name brand” retailers in Windsor, EPS estimates that a maximum of 25 percent of the future Townwide demand for retail space could be developed in the Downtown Area. This translates to 138,000 square feet of new retail space in Downtown. Though the Bell Village project has not been approved yet, it proposes to offer 65,500 square feet of retail space (nearly half of future demand for retail space in the Downtown area and nearly 12 percent of future demand Townwide).
11. The mix of retail uses proposed for the Bell Village site is not likely to compete directly with Downtown retailers, and, therefore, is unlikely to have a physical impact on the Downtown retail environment in terms of increased vacancies. There is a substantial supply of grocery stores and pharmacies (many in combined formats) already in the Town of Windsor and specifically at the Lakewood and Lakewood Village shopping centers. Though the development of the Bell Village retail component would be likely to attract sales away from these existing grocery stores and pharmacies, they are not present in the Downtown retail mix.3
12. Windsor also attracts visitors from beyond its Market Area who are drawn by the Town’s events and visitor-serving retail, but there is potential for the Town to capture an even greater share of the County’s visitor activity. A representative from the Town’s Chamber of Commerce estimates that the Town’s events pull visitors from up to 15 miles away. EPS believes there is potential for the Town to capture an even greater share of the County’s visitor activity by developing and strengthening opportunities to serve the visitor market, such as a hybrid boutique hotel/ conference center. If further analysis suggests demand for a new hotel, the Downtown Area is a logical central location with good freeway access, adjacency to retail and restaurants, and proximity to the Train Station.
3 The existing pharmacy Downtown, Health First!, is a pharmacy and compounding establishment specializing in homeopathic treatments.
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Recommended Strategies and Actions
1. Prepare a Master Plan for the Civic Center, Library, Huerta Gym, 100 Market sites. There are a number of strategies described in this Study that could involve reconfiguring the Town’s Civic Center property to optimize the use of the land surrounding the Town Green. A master plan study should be prepared that evaluates the physical requirements and design of the reconfigured area, as well as the financial considerations that would be involved, including potential to use proceeds of development surplus, public property, tax increment financing, and other sources to retire the outstanding public debt on the current Town Hall site and fund consolidation of Town functions. Should current plans to develop the Bell Village site become infeasible, the geographic scope of the Master Plan should be expanded to include the Bell Village site.
2. Work to attract a niche-market, specialty grocery store that specializes in high- quality foods, fresh produce, and prepared foods to Downtown Windsor. Anticipating future growth, a small-format, quality grocery store offering local, organic produce and specializing in prepared foods could potentially retain some of the local spending that is being lost to areas outside of Town, and be viable over the long term—particularly in the Downtown area. The presence and associated activity of a specialty grocery store in the Downtown area can help jumpstart additional retail development. If such a grocery store can be supported as part of Bell Village, special planning and design consideration should be given to the careful integration of the retail portion of the Bell Village site with the rest of the Downtown.
3. Ensure that the design of the Old Redwood Highway street and pedestrian improvements serves to integrate the existing Downtown street pattern and the future retail uses at Bell Village. To maximize connectivity between the retail planned for the Bell Village site and the existing Downtown area, pedestrian access across Old Redwood Highway must be improved. Preliminary design alternatives for the downtown section of Old Redwood Highway are being considered by the Planning Commission and Town Council. The more physically integrated the Bell Village retail is with the Town Green and Downtown, the more likely it is that the commercial uses can activate and support one another by encouraging pedestrian flow.
4. Monitor demand for a hotel/conferencing facility in the Town. Discussions with the Executive Director of the Agatha Furth Center suggested that there is unmet demand for an event facility in the Town of Windsor. However, the economics of operating a stand-alone meeting/ conference facility are challenging and such facilities typically require financial support. Financial support could take the form of public investment or the operations of the facility could be subsidized by an adjacent and/or interconnected hotel. The Town should engage in further analysis to evaluate the potential future demand for a new hotel in light of the current application for a new Holiday Inn east of Highway 101. If further analysis suggests demand for a new hotel, the Downtown Area is a logical central location with good freeway access, adjacency to retail and restaurants, and proximity to the Train Station, which will eventually serve SMART Train passengers. If the retail currently planned for the Bell Village site becomes infeasible or the project does not move forward for
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some reason, EPS believes a well-executed hotel/conferencing facility (along the lines and scale of the Sonoma Mission Inn, for example) located on the Bell Village site would attract new visitors to Windsor and the Downtown area, in particular. Hotel guests and conference and event attendees will infuse vitality into the Downtown, and they will be less sensitive to having to cross Old Redwood Highway than current residents and employees might be.
5. Recognize that there are opportunities for Old Downtown to serve two distinct populations: day-to-day Downtown residents and employees, and visitors, and that the Town should work to cater to each group. Residents and employees require different types of retail than visitors, but the Downtown area will need to serve both groups. Eating and drinking places and apparel stores represent significant retail opportunities for the Town and are particularly appropriate uses for the Downtown area.
6. Evaluate demand for a mini-outlet concept to capture apparel leakage. A small scale outlet center may be possible in the Town if it is able to serve tourists as well as the local community’s demand for apparel and other consumer goods. While there is a large outlet in Petaluma with over 50 stores, Windsor may be able to offer a much smaller- scale shopping experience, consistent with and complementary to the Downtown retail, to attract visitors who may prefer unique small-town shopping experience on their way to other destinations.
7. Windsor needs to explore branding options that resonate with the Town’s family values and location in the heart of Sonoma’s wine country, that are not limited to summer activities on the Town Green. As noted above, one key aspect of successful tourist-oriented retail districts is its unique identity or “brand”. Windsor is a “real” community nestled in the wine country that celebrates local agriculture and produce, wine, and family.
8. To the extent possible, encourage the types of businesses that generate business- to-business sales by supporting retention and expansion efforts. The Town of Windsor’s retail sales are significantly supported by business-to-business sales, including several that manufacture and sell materials related to the construction industry. While these businesses do not attract resident or visitor spending, they generate sales tax revenues that support the Town’s General Fund activities. Consider requiring a fiscal impact analysis when applications to replace or redevelop existing sales tax generators are submitted.
9. Preserve land designated as Gateway Commercial in the southern portion of Town for regional-serving big box stores. The southern portion of the Town where the Shiloh Center is located has already emerged as the Town’s regional retail node with the presence of large-scale big box retailers Walmart, Home Depot, and Office Depot. Residents of Windsor and residents of communities north of Windsor are already driving through Windsor to get to these stores; they are also driving past Windsor to shop at regional retail stores in Santa Rosa. To capture more of the regional retail dollars being spent outside of Windsor, the Town could try to attract additional large
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format, general merchandise retailers to the southern part of Town. Particular sites, including the Oluf property (about 40 acres) and the Vicinni site, are promising candidates for regional-serving retail, although there are three creeks that run through the Oluf property, and the Vicinni site has wetlands issues. The former water-slide park site is vacant and offers significant acreage but in an awkward configuration. Particular attention could be focused on trying to attract a Target to one of these sites, for example, which could help capture regional spending.4 Such a strategy is not expected to compete with the objectives of the Shiloh Vision Plan, whose eventual retail offerings as part of a mixed-use development are likely to emerge more organically in response to market demand and individual retailers’ own tendencies.
10. Unless there is a particular business able to invest in the northern portion of Town, retail zoned land may be better suited to residential or mixed-use. Beyond Bonaventure Plaza, there is a significant amount of land in northern Windsor on either side of Highway 101 that is designated Gateway Commercial. As noted in the previous finding, EPS believes the most appropriate location within the Town for regional retail is in southern Windsor around the Shiloh interchange. Northern Windsor may be more appropriate for residential or mixed use development. Apart from the types of retail stores that serve nearby residents, northern Windsor does not display strong retail development potential.
4 A Target that also offers a full line of conventional grocery goods would likely compete with the conventional grocers (Safeway and Raleys) at the Lakewood Shopping Center.
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2. DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
Retail demand can be disaggregated into spending from local sources such as residents and employees and spending from outside sources such as commuters passing through Windsor along Highway 101, tourists, and other visitors. Spending from local sources is largely determined by demographic and economic variables such as population, income, and employment. Spending from outside sources, in turn, is determined by such factors as regional commute patterns, local destinations or tourist attractions, and the quality/character of retail supply itself.
This chapter evaluates demographic conditions and trends within the Town of Windsor. The growth and composition of the Town’s population, including age, income, education, and occupational status, will play an important role in the evolution the Town’s retail position. As such, this chapter provides baseline information for use in the more detailed retail assessment provided in subsequent chapters.
Population and Household Growth Trends
Windsor is a small town in central Sonoma County with a population of 27,600 and 9,290 households as of 2010 (shown in Table 1). With the highest people per household ratio in the County (2.9), it is a family-oriented community, with mostly single family detached homes and quality public schools.
Since 2000, the Town’s population has expanded at a rapid pace, increasing by about 4,200 people or 18.5 percent, significantly outpacing the countywide increase of 7.6 percent. The number of households in the Town grew by 1,600 or 21 percent between 2000 and 2010. This significant growth can be attributed to the Town’s family-oriented image and desirable quality of life factors, including pleasant year-round weather, quality public schools, and reasonable cost of living relative to other Sonoma County communities.
Age, Ethnicity, and Income
The demographic composition of Windsor reflects its evolution as a small community catering to middle-class families. The Town’s population is much younger and more ethnically diverse than the rest of the County, with the share of Latino residents now representing one-third of the Town’s overall population. These indices are summarized in Tables 2 through 4 and briefly described below:
• Age: The Town of Windsor is largely comprised of families with children, with 82 percent of the Town’s population under age 55 compared with 73 percent at the County level, as shown in Table 2. The population under 21 years of age is 32 percent in the Town of Windsor compared with 25 percent in the County as a whole. Just 17 percent of the Town’s population is aged 55 and older, compared with 26 percent Countywide.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 9 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 1 Population, Households, Jobs, and Household Income Estimates and Forecasts Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2000-2010 2010-2035
Avg Avg Area/Item 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 # % Annual # % Annual
Town of Windsor Population 22,744 25,600 27,600 28,300 28,900 29,800 30,300 30,900 4,856 21.4% 2.0% 3,300 12.0% 0.5% Households 7,589 8,680 9,290 9,470 9,670 9,930 10,160 10,370 1,701 22.4% 2.0% 1,080 11.6% 0.4% Jobs 5,960 5,970 5,850 6,650 7,270 8,360 9,630 11,110 -110 -1.8% -0.2% 5,260 89.9% 2.6% Mean Household Income [1] $88,300 $90,000 $95,000 $99,000 $102,700 $108,400 $115,300 $122,400 $6,700 7.6% 0.7% $27,400 28.8% 1.0% Median Household Income [2,3] $74,326 $75,757 $79,965 $83,332 $86,447 $91,245 $97,053 $103,029 $5,640 7.6% 0.7% $23,064 28.8% 1.0%
Sonoma County Population 458,614 479,200 497,900 509,900 522,500 535,200 548,400 561,500 39,286 8.6% 0.8% 63,600 12.8% 0.5% Households 172,403 181,800 188,340 192,600 197,060 201,700 206,440 211,290 15,937 9.2% 0.9% 22,950 12.2% 0.5% Jobs 221,490 220,460 218,360 236,710 257,740 278,510 301,120 325,110 -3,130 -1.4% -0.1% 106,750 48.9% 1.6% Mean Household Income [1] $82,800 $82,600 $84,300 $89,000 $93,900 $99,100 $104,600 $110,300 $1,500 1.8% 0.2% $26,000 30.8% 1.1% Median Household Income [2,4] $62,368 $58,330 $61,514 $64,944 $68,519 $72,314 $76,327 $80,487 -$854 -1.4% -0.1% $18,972 30.8% 1.1% 10 [1] In 2005$ [2] Reported by 2000 U.S. Census in 1999 dollars. Inflated to 2005 dollars based on consumer price index for the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose metropolitan area as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: U.S. Census. [3] Assumes the ratio of median income to mean income will remain constant at 84% (average ratio in 2000). [4] Assumes the ratio of median income to mean income will remain constant at 73% (average ratio from 2000-2005).
Sources: Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG); U.S. Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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Town of Windsor1 Sonoma County1 Item # % # %
Under 21 years 8,211 32% 117,928 25% 21 to 34 years 4,634 18% 89,251 19% 35 to 54 years 8,353 32% 136,153 29% 55 to 64 years 2,174 8% 59,882 13% 65 to 84 years 2,146 8% 49,858 11% 85 years and over 209 1% 10,254 2% Total 25,727 100% 463,326 100%
[1] Source: 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates Estimates are based on data collected between January 2006 and December 2008 and represent the average over the 3-year period of time.
Sources: U.S. Census; American Community Survey; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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2000 2010 # % of Total # % of Total
Town of Windsor1 White 15,989 70% 16,123 63% Hispanic or Latino 5,364 24% 7,706 30% Other2 1,391 6% 1,898 7% Total 22,744 100% 25,727 100%
Sonoma County1 White 341,686 75% 318,742 69% Hispanic or Latino 79,511 17% 104,459 23% Other2 37,417 8% 40,125 9% Total 458,614 100% 463,326 100%
[1] Source: 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates. Estimates are based on data collected between January 2006 and December 2008 and represent the average over the 3-year period of time. [2] Includes Black or African American, American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and individuals reporting two or more races.
Sources: U.S. Census; American Community Survey; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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Number of Households/ % of Total Item Amount Households
Town of Windsor1 Less than $15,000 733 9% $15,000 to $34,999 1,050 12% $35,000 to $49,999 1,060 12% $50,000 to $74,999 1,254 15% $75,000 to $99,999 1,285 15% $100,000 to $149,999 2,041 24% $150,000 or more 1,100 13% Total 8,523 100% Median Household Income (2008$) $78,053 --
Sonoma County1 Less than $15,000 15,507 9% $15,000 to $34,999 31,775 18% $35,000 to $49,999 22,216 12% $50,000 to $74,999 33,502 19% $75,000 to $99,999 25,670 14% $100,000 to $149,999 28,880 16% $150,000 or more 21,460 12% Total 179,010 100% Median Household Income (2008$) $63,768 --
[1] 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates. Estimates are based on data collected between January 2006 and December 2008 and represent the average characteristics over the 3-year period of time.
Sources: 2006-2008 American Community Survey; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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• Ethnicity: About 63 percent of Windsor’s population is white compared to 69 percent in the County (see Table 3). The ethnic composition of both the Town’s and County’s populations has become more diverse since 2000 with increases in the number of Latino and other non- white residents.
• Income: The households in the Town have a much higher average annual income of $95,000, compared to the County’s average of $84,000. Median incomes are lower by about 16 percent. Approximately 37 percent of all Windsor households earned more than $100,000 in 2006 through 2008, according to the American Community Survey5—a much higher proportion than in Sonoma County overall (28 percent), as shown in Table 4.
Job Profile
Despite growth of certain employment sectors and declines of others, the County has experienced relatively little change in its overall economic profile since 2000. A sizable share (35 percent) of the County’s jobs are in the Health, Educational and Recreational Service Jobs sector, but beyond that concentration, employment appears well distributed across a range of industries. Since 2000, the largest employment sectors have been Manufacturing, Wholesale and Transportation Jobs and Financial and Professional Service Jobs, as shown on Table 5. This degree of diversity is likely to make the County more resilient during downturns than economies that are more reliant upon a particular industry.
On a much smaller scale, Windsor’s economic composition mirrors that of the County. Also shown on Table 5, top employment sectors in the Town include Health, Educational and Recreational Service Jobs (31 percent), Financial and Professional Service Jobs (19 percent), and Manufacturing, Wholesale and Transportation Jobs (17 percent). Windsor has a higher percentage of jobs in the Retail Jobs category than the County, reflecting the Town’s position as a net attractor of retail spending.
The Town’s top employers include a significant number of businesses in the retail industry (shown on Table 6). Large private employers in Windsor include many of the Town’s top sales tax generators, including Walmart, Standard Structures, Sonoma Tilemakers, Home Depot, Safeway, Micro-vu Corp, and Raley’s. It is estimated that these large employers account for about 20 percent of total jobs in the Town.
Commute and Work Location Patterns
Windsor is located along the Highway 101 commute shed, and commute and workplace trends provide information on a community’s role in a regional economy as well as the job and lifestyle choices and options of local residents. As shown on Table 7, data on the work location and commute patterns of employed Windsor residents reflects the Town’s role as an attractive
5 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates are based on data collected between January 2006 and December 2008 and represent the average characteristics over the three-year period.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 14 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 5 Town of Windsor and Sonoma County Distribution of Jobs Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2000 2010 2020 2035 2010-2035 # % of # % of # % of # % of #% Industry Total Total Total Total Change
Town of Windsor Agriculture and Natural Resources Jobs 0 0% 190 3% 160 2% 230 2% 40 -- Manufacturing, Wholesale and Transportation Jobs 1,130 19% 1,020 17% 1,090 19% 1,430 13% 410 36% Retail Jobs 910 15% 830 14% 1,000 17% 1,610 14% 780 86% Financial and Professional Service Jobs 1,000 17% 1,090 19% 1,450 25% 2,110 19% 1,020 102% Health, Educational and Recreational Service Jobs 1,930 32% 1,820 31% 2,450 42% 3,840 35% 2,020 105% Other Jobs [1] 990 17% 900 15% 1,120 19% 1,890 17% 990 100% Total, All Industries 5,960 100% 5,850 100% 7,270 124% 11,110 100% 5,260 88%
Sonoma County Agriculture and Natural Resources Jobs 6,510 3% 6,200 3% 6,200 2% 6,200 2% 0 0% Manufacturing, Wholesale and Transportation Jobs 45,570 21% 41,860 19% 46,640 18% 54,790 17% 12,930 28% Retail Jobs 26,890 12% 25,200 12% 29,430 11% 38,830 12% 13,630 51% 15 Financial and Professional Service Jobs 38,980 18% 39,310 18% 47,650 18% 61,760 19% 22,450 58% Health, Educational and Recreational Service Jobs 72,510 33% 76,780 35% 91,970 36% 117,620 36% 40,840 56% Other Jobs 31,030 14% 29,010 13% 35,850 14% 45,910 14% 16,900 54% Total, All Industries 221,490 100% 218,360 100% 257,740 100% 325,110 100% 106,750 48%
[1] Includes Construction, Information, and Government
Sources: ABAG 2009 Projections; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Table 6 Town of Windsor Major Employers Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
Industry # of Employees
Town of Windsor Wal-Mart 300 Standard Structures 265 Sonoma Tilemakers 170 Home Depot 131 Safeway Supermarket 118 Micro-Vu Corporation 100 Raley's Supermarket 90 Total, All Industries 1,174
[1] Includes full and part-time staff in 2010.
Sources: Town of Windsor Community Economic Profile; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 16 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Table 7 Town of Windsor and Larkfield-Wikiup Commute Patterns, 2008 Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
Item Amount % Item Amount %
Windsor Residents Larkfield-Wikiup Residents Place of Work Place of Work Santa Rosa 3,298 28% Santa Rosa 1,120 32% Windsor 1,364 12% Windsor 171 5% Healdsburg 742 6% Petaluma 139 4% Petaluma 338 3% San Francisco 124 4% San Francisco 315 3% Rohnert Park 95 3% Rohnert Park 301 3% Larkfield-Wikiup (CDP) 90 3% San Rafael 173 2% Healdsburg 73 2% Larkfield-Wikiup (CDP) 154 1% San Rafael 62 2% Novato 125 1% Sebastopol 42 1% San Jose 111 1% Novato 37 1% Other in County 2,265 20% Other 1,516 44% Other Outside of County 2,419 21% Total 3,469 100% Total 11,605 100%
Windsor Workers Larkfield-Wikiup Workers Place of Residence Place of Residence Santa Rosa 1,482 23% Santa Rosa 445 30% Windsor 1,364 21% Windsor 154 11% Healdsburg 266 4% Larkfield-Wikiup (CDP)90 6% Rohnert Park 230 4% Rohnert Park 65 4% Larkfield-Wikiup (CDP) 171 3% Petaluma 57 4% Petaluma 142 2% Healdsburg 37 3% Cloverdale 100 2% Napa 22 2% San Francisco 88 1% Roseland 20 1% Sebastopol 72 1% Cloverdale 13 1% Napa 71 1% Sebastopol 12 1% Other in County 1,174 18% All Other Locations 548 37% Other Outside of County 1,409 21% Total 1,463 100% Total 6,569 100%
Sources: U.S. Census, 2008 LED; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 17 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Town of Windsor Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study Final Report 9/17/10
“family community” for professionals who work in larger employment centers, mostly to the south. Of Windsor workers, the majority of employees live within 10 miles of the Town; however, 21 percent commute to Windsor from outside Sonoma County.
ABAG Population and Employment Projections
As part of this analysis, EPS has reviewed population and employment growth projections developed by ABAG in 2009. ABAG provides projections for the jurisdictions in the nine Bay Area counties through 2035. As the designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for this region, the ABAG projections are developed with input from local and regional agencies and jurisdictions and are used as critical input to major regional planning efforts such as the Regional Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP), the Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP), and the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA). These projections incorporate “policy-based” considerations such as focusing growth toward existing and planned regional centers and transit areas as a well as a gradual increase in mixed-use, high- density development and a reversal of job-housing imbalances.
The ABAG projections for Sonoma County and Windsor are provided in Table 1. As shown, the Town’s population is projected by ABAG to increase by 3,300 between 2010 and 2035, or 0.5 percent per year. The Town is projected to gain 1,080 households over the next 25 years (by 2035), which represents an average annual growth rate of 0.4 percent. If these projections are accurate, they would represent a significant slow-down from population and household growth rates in recent years (the Town has grown at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent since 2000). Population growth in the Town has been faster than the Countywide average over the past decade, but is projected by ABAG to slow to a rate consistent with the County’s projected average annual growth rate of 0.5 percent between 2010 and 2035.
On the employment side, ABAG’s projections suggest that Windsor will experience relatively strong job growth over the next 25 years, after a decade of job losses. Between 2000 and 2010, the Town of Windsor lost 1.8 percent of its employment base, while the County lost 1.4 percent during the same period. Looking ahead, the Town is projected to add 5,260 jobs by 2035, which represents an overall increase of about 90 percent (from 2010 levels) or an average annual growth rate of 2.6 percent (also shown in Table 1). The Town’s job growth is expected to outpace the County as a whole (a 90 percent increase over 25 years compared with 49 percent Countywide).
EPS believes that ABAG’s job growth projections for Windsor are reasonable, as they still suggest that Windsor will be a primarily residential community in the future, with fewer jobs in the Town than employed residents living in the Town. However, EPS believes that ABAG’s household growth projections are most likely too conservative, as discussed below.
Alternative Household Growth Projections
During the 10 year period between 2000 and 2010, the number of households in the Town of Windsor increased by 1,700, from 7,589 to 9,290, or 22 percent. During the next 25 years, ABAG projects that the number of new households will increase by just two-thirds the amount realized in the past 10 years, or 1,080 new households. EPS recognizes that ABAG’s projections
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 18 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Town of Windsor Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study Final Report 9/17/10
are intentionally prescriptive and reflect a policy to direct new growth to established urban cores; however, EPS believes that they significantly understate the amount of growth the market will support. In fact, as will be discussed in more detail in a subsequent chapter, the nearly 1,000 residential units currently in the pipeline for the Downtown area only would approach ABAG’s 25- year projection for the entire Town.
If the 2.0 percent average annual growth rate realized during the past decade was applied during the next 25 years, the Town of Windsor would grow by more than 6,100 new households, as shown on Table 8. The Town’s General Plan states that total capacity for residential units within Town limits is estimated at 3,298 to 4,087 new units, depending on the density assumptions applied. 6 If the density bonus were applied to all projects, a total of 5,109 units could be accommodated. There is additional capacity within the Town’s sphere of influence.7 Other constraining factors to consider include the Town’s Growth Control ordinance, which allows for 150 new units per year, or 3,750 new units over a 25-year period, not accounting for allowable exemptions such as affordable units or those in the Downtown area.
To rely on ABAG’s projections for planning purposes if they understate actual growth potential, could compromise the Town’s process and objectives. EPS recommends reconsidering the ABAG projections for this analysis and assuming that new units will increase by 3,000 Townwide between 2010 and 2035. This amount of household growth translates to an increase of approximately 30 percent above the current number of households in the Town, or 1.0 to 1.1 percent per year – still only about half the growth rate experienced in the last decade. An increase of 2,500 to 3,000 new units falls well within the physical capacity of the Town as reflected in its General Plan and is also in compliance with the Town’s Growth Ordinance.
6 The 3,298-unit estimate reflects a mid-point density assumption, while the 4,087-unit estimate reflects maximum density.
7 There is additional capacity for 2,172 to 2,922 new units within the sphere of influence, or 3,653 applying the maximum density bonus.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 19 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 8 Town of Windsor Alternative 2035 Growth Projections Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2000-2010 2010-2035 Avg Avg Item 2000 2010 2035 #%Annual # % Annual
Low Growth Estimate [1] Households 7,589 9,290 10,370 1,701 22.4% 2.0% 1,080 11.6% 0.4%
High Growth Estimate [2] Households 7,589 9,290 15,403 1,701 22.4% 2.0% 6,113 65.8% 2.0%
EPS Estimate [3] Households 7,589 9,290 12,290 1,701 22.4% 2.0% 3,000 32.3% 1.1% 20 [1] ABAG, Projections 2009. [2] Applies the 2000 to 2010 annual growth rate of 2.0% to the number of households in 2010 for 20 years. [3] Increase of 3,000 new households, estimated by EPS, is used in subsequent tables and analysis.
Source: ABAG; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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3. RETAIL MARKET AREA AND CONTEXT
The Town of Windsor is centrally located in Sonoma County at the confluence of the Russian River, Dry Creek, and Alexander valleys. It is situated along the Highway 101 corridor, 10 miles north of Santa Rosa, the most populous city in the County, and 6 miles south of Healdsburg, as shown on Figure 1. The following section describes the local retail market context, as well as the regional market context, and informs the conceptualization of the Trade Area in the subsequent chapter.
Regional Retail Context
Santa Rosa, located 10 miles south of Windsor, is the main retail hub of Sonoma County. Santa Rosa draws shoppers from all of Sonoma County, particularly for purchases such as apparel, home goods and furnishings, and home electronics. Further south are the Petaluma Outlets, offering discount prices at 60 name-brand apparel and home goods stores. The competitive supply of area shopping centers is tracked on Table 9.
Outside of the Town’s boundaries to the southeast, there is a modest supply of neighborhood- serving retail and family-style eateries in the Larkfield-Wikiup community. The 89,000 square- foot Larkfield Shopping Center is anchored by Molsberry’s Market, a 17,000 square-foot grocery store.
Local Retail Context
The Town’s retail stores are generally dispersed across five centers of retail activity within the Town’s 6.5 square miles, as shown on Figure 2. Moving north to south:
• Bonaventure Plaza is a grocery/convenience store-anchored center located along Old Redwood Highway at the northern point of the Town and offers neighborhood-serving retail including Martin’s Market, a Latino-oriented grocery market, a coffee shop, a pizza restaurant, a laundromat, a pet supply store, and a pet photography studio. Though it is not officially part of Bonaventure Plaza, there is a taqueria north of the center. Further north and across Old Redwood Highway, Garrett Ace Hardware and Vineyard Industry sell building materials and landscape supplies.
• Lakewood Village is located east of Highway 101 in the central portion of the Town and consists of both Lakewood Shopping Center and Lakewood Village Shopping Center—two centers located across Lakewood Drive from one another. Together they serve as a community-serving retail center, anchored by Raley’s, Safeway, and CVS Pharmacy. In-line stores include casual family-oriented restaurants, personal services such as nail, hair, and tanning salons, dental offices, a health club, and other services including the Town’s post office, a packaging and shipping store, and banks and insurance offices. Currently, there are several retail vacancies at Lakewood Village.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 21 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Figure 1: Windsor in Regional Context RRR RRR EEE EEE DDD DDD WWW HHH WWW HHHIII OOO IIGIGG OOO GGG OOO HHH OOO WW DDD WW DDD AAA YYY H H H YYY HHH 1 WWW 1 11 WWW 222 YYY 888 YYY 888
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S S S SSS milesmiles GGRR GGRRAAVVEENNSS NNSSTTEEIIINN HH IIINN HHWWYY Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 22 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Maps\MapInfo\Figure_4.wor Table 9 Competitive Shopping Centers Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
Gross Leasable Area Name Location (GLA) Anchor Other Tenants Year Built
Windsor Lakewood Shopping Center 8852 Lakewood Dr 107,800 Raley's Supermarket Starbucks, Subway, U.S. Post 1988 Office, Wells Fargo, Radio Shack Lakewood Village 8900-9098 Brooks Rd S 127,200 Safeway Peet's Coffee, Carl's Jr., Taco 1992 Supermarket, Bell, Bank of America, CVS Pharmacy Sonoma Bank, The UPS Store Shiloh Center Hwy 101 & Shiloh Rd 345,000 Wal-Mart, Home Office Depot, Cold Stone 1999 Depot Creamery, KFC/A&W, Burger King, Kragen Auto Parts, Quizno's, Sleep City Old Downtown Windsor Road 112,530 Independent, Starbucks, Baskin Robbins, 2002 boutique retailers and salons and spas, bike shop, eateries book store, antiques, bead store, wine shop, consignment clothing Bonaventure Plaza Old Redwood Highway and 12,000 Martin's Market pizza, coffee, pet boutique, Starr Road Estrella's Market and Taqueria Windsor Subtotal -- 704,530 ------
Larkfield Larkfield Shopping Center 4754 Old Redwood Highway 89,000 Exchange Bank, restaurants 1960 Molsberry Market Larkfield Subtotal -- 89,000 ------
Petaluma Gateway Center 939 Lakeville Highway 83,100 Lucky's Blockbuster Video, 1989 McDonald's, Nail Salon, The UPS Store Golden Eagle Center 40 E Washington St. 71,100 Grocery Outlet Baskin Robbins, Exchange 1975 Bank, restaurants Petaluma Plaza North 261 N McDowell Blvd. 185,309 Kmart, CVS/Longs Burger King, Starbucks, 1980 Shopping Center Cigarettes R Cheaper, Ideal Stationers, General Nutrition Center, Massage Envy, Bank of the West, MetroPCS
Petaluma Plaza South E. Washington St and 150,000 Raley's, Trader Joe's, Sally Beauty Supply, Radio 1980 Shopping Center McDowell Blvd Ross Shack, restaurants Petaluma Village Premium 2200 Petaluma Blvd. N. 196,000 -- Carter's Childrenswear, Gap 1994 Outlets Outlet, Brooks Brothers, Off 5th, restaurants Washington Square 389 S. McDowell Blvd 219,393 Safeway AT&T Wireless, Cold Stone 1971 Creamery, Exchange Bank, H&R Block, Staples, nail salon, See's Candies Petaluma Subtotal 904,902
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 23 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Table 9 Competitive Shopping Centers Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
Gross Leasable Area Name Location (GLA) Anchor Other Tenants Year Built
Santa Rosa [1] Bennett Valley Shopping 2785 Yulupa Ave. 74,276 Safeway Exchange Bank, offices, 1968 Center restaurants Coddington Regional Mall 733 Coddington Center 964,000 Macy's, JCPenney, Bank of The West, Baskin 1962 Gottschalk's, Whole Robbins, Bath & Body Works, Foods Foot Locker, Hallmark, salon, restaurants, Old Namy, See's Candies
Farmer's Lane Plaza 1551 Farmer's Lane 94,211 Rite Aid Pharmacy Starbucks, Kragen Auto 1981 Parts, Family Optometry Center, restaurants Flamingo One Stop Highway 12 at Farmer's Lane 200,000 Safeway Credit Union, Stanley Shopping Center and 4th Steemer, Starbucks, Wells Fargo, catering Montecito Center 6240 Montecito Blvd 111,000 Oliver's Market Rincon Valley Cleaners, 1961 Round Table Pizza, Montecito Car Wash, Montecito Barbers
Montgomery Village 800 Farmer's Lane 286,366 Lucky's, Ross Bank of America, Brookstone, 1950 Shopping Center Chase Bank, Coldwater Creek, Curves, Fireside Stationary, Radio Shack, restaurants, Sur La Table
Raley's Fulton Marketplace 1407 Fulton Road 120,000 Raley's, Ace Starbucks, Subway, 1992 Hardware Blockbuster Video, offices Safeway Marlow Center 1799 Marlow Road 85,000 Safeway Round Table Pizza, Wells 1985 Fargo Bank, Starbucks, H&R Block Santa Rosa Marketplace 1900-2280 Santa Rosa Ave. 535,852 Best Buy, Costco, Old Navy, Radio Shack, 1996 Marshalls, Office AT&T Wireless, Beverages & Depot, Sportmart, More, restaurants Target Santa Rosa Plaza 800 Santa Rosa Plaza 705,876 Macy's, Sears Abercrombie & Fitch, Apple 1982 Computer, Banana Republic, Gap, The Disney Store, Eye Exam 2000, Lane Bryant, PacSun, Sunglass Hut, restaurants Santa Rosa Southside 2705 Santa Rosa Ave. 121,568 Cost Plus World Party City, Play It Again 1982 Market, Toys R Us, Sports, Legendary Beads, REI Sprint PCS, Oreck, The Vitamin Shoppe, Burger King
Santa Rosa Town Center 2765 Santa Rosa Ave. 171,550 Bed Bath & Beyond, Petco, Sleep Train 1999 Borders Books & Music, Michael's
St. Francis Shopping 100 Calistoga Road 86,158 Safeway The UPS Store, restaurants, 1967 Center Rincon Video, Exchange Bank Stony Point Plaza 711 Stony Point Road 203,970 FoodMax Burger King, Taco Bell, 1985 Hollywood Video, Payless Shoes Santa Rosa Subtotal -- 3,759,827 ------
Shopping Center Total -- 5,458,259 ------
[1] Includes shopping centers with at least 70,000 square feet of GLA.
Source: 2006 Shopping Center Directory; Individual Shopping Centers' websites; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 24 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Figure 2: Windsor Shopping Areas
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• Old Downtown is centrally located west of Highway 101, and the bulk of the retail Downtown is nestled to the west and south of the Town Green, which acts as Downtown’s anchor use as it has numerous events and programs throughout the year. Though referred to as “Old,” the Downtown’s built environment is almost entirely new construction. The New Urbanist Downtown has been built in phases, beginning in the early 2000s.
The retail in the Downtown can be characterized as pedestrian-friendly, with mostly unique, independently-owned specialty stores and restaurants. Many of the retailers are mom and pop “hobby” retailers, meaning that they are not strictly in business for the money. Rather, they are pursuing a hobby interest and can subsidize their operations with their personal savings, or accept relatively low income from the stores, if necessary. The small size of the retail spaces also keeps total monthly rent for individual stores fairly low, even though rents are fairly high on a per square foot basis. There are a number of quality restaurants as well as casual ice cream, frozen yogurt, and candy stores. Other retailers include salons, jewelry stores, craft stores, and consignment clothing stores. Old Downtown benefits from the Town’s active programming of the Town Green, particularly during the summer months.
Of the retail spaces close to the Town Green and oriented to the Town Green, there are very few vacancies, according to the developer of the Downtown. The retail spaces that are accessible from the parking lot off of Windsor Road have more vacancies, while the ground floor retail along Johnson Street (the last to be developed) is almost completely vacant.
• Windsor Palms is located along Old Redwood Highway, southeast of Lakewood Center. It is a neighborhood-serving strip mall, anchored by Round Table Pizza and Castañedas Marketplace, which specializes in Mexican groceries. The tenant directory includes a video rental store, a salon, a drycleaner, Star Town Restaurant, Thumbs Up Burgers, a taqueria, Donut Hut, a needlepoint shop, and a Tae Kwon Do studio. Windsor Palms has a strong medical office presence, including a medical clinic and second story medical offices. Currently, some retail space is available for lease.
• Shiloh Center is located east of Highway 101 at the southern point of Town, and offers the Town’s only regional-serving, national-credit retailers. The Center is anchored by Home Depot, Walmart, and Office Depot. Family-style, fast-food eateries such as Subway Sandwiches, Panda Express, Burger King, Pizza Guys, Hi-Tech Burrito, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Cold Stone Creamery, and Quiznos comprise much of the tenant base. There is also a pet store, a cell phone store, a credit union, a mattress store, and a Kragen Auto Parts store.
• Other sites of limited retail sales activity include Windsor Village, the Shiloh Business Center, and the retail along Airport Boulevard, just south of the City.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 26 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc
4. TRADE AREA BOUNDARIES
This chapter describes Windsor’s Primary and Secondary Trade Areas and evaluates the socioeconomic conditions and trends within the Total Trade Area.
Definition of Windsor’s Trade Areas
A retail Trade Area is defined as a geographic region that contains the elements of demand and supply that will determine the performance of a particular tenant or project. A Trade Area is influenced by a variety of factors, including competitive supply as discussed in the preceding chapter, the location and density of the targeted residential and workforce populations, the character and distribution of retail centers, the relative distance or travel time for each of the above, geographic and psychological barriers, and existing commute or shopping patterns. The primary retail Trade Area for the Town of Windsor is assumed to correlate with the Town’s boundaries, as shown on Figure 3.
Windsor is primarily surrounded by sparsely populated areas of unincorporated Sonoma County. Primary inter-jurisdictional access is provided by Highway 101, and to a lesser extent Old Redwood Highway. Though the Town is not a major employment center, it is located along a major employment commute shed. The secondary retail Trade Area for the Town of Windsor is largely influenced by its accessibility with respect to the major population and employment center of Santa Rosa (10 miles to the south), and to a lesser degree Healdsburg (6 miles to the north), Rohnert Park (17 miles to the south), Petaluma (26 miles to the south), and San Francisco (60 miles to the south).
Healdsburg and communities north of Healdsburg are not included as part of the Town’s secondary retail Trade Area, as the supply of retail in these communities more or less meets the basic retail goods and services needs of their residents.8 Access between Windsor and communities to the east, such as St. Helena, and Napa in Napa County is slow-going, constrained by hills and winding, narrow roads. The most direct access to Highways 12 and 29 requires travelling south into Santa Rosa. Communities to the west such as Guerneville, Monte Rio, and Forestville are accessible via Highway 116, and Sebastopol is off Highway 12—neither of which passes through (or by) Windsor. As such, the communities to the east and west of Windsor are not a part of Windsor’s secondary retail Trade Area. The City of Santa Rosa to the south is the primary destination for regional retail goods and already captures spending well- beyond household expenditures in the City. Santa Rosa’s size, highway network, and retail offerings exclude it from Windsor’s secondary retail Trade Area.
Given the geographic and transportation constraints and competitive supply issues described above, for the purposes of this analysis, the secondary retail Trade Area expands the market area to include the Larkfield-Wikiup community, also shown on Figure 3. Windsor’s secondary
8 EPS has not evaluated retail capture/leakage analyses for these communities.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 27 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Figure 3: Primary and Secondary Trade Areas
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 28 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Maps\MapInfo\Figure_6.wor Town of Windsor Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study Final Report 9/17/10
retail Trade Area is assumed to correlate with the Town’s boundaries on the north and west and east but it extends beyond the Town’s limits to the southeast to include the census-designated place of Larkfield-Wikiup.
Of course Windsor also attracts visitors from beyond its secondary retail Trade Area who are drawn by the Town’s events and visitor-serving retail. A representative from the Town’s Chamber of Commerce estimates that the Town’s events pull visitors from up to 15 miles away. As will be discussed in detail later in this report, EPS believes there is potential for the Town to capture an even greater share of the County’s visitor activity through strategic positioning of the Town’s retail opportunities.
Population and Employment of Secondary Trade Area
ABAG does not release demographic projections for the Secondary Trade Area that has been identified in this analysis. However, Larkfield-Wikiup is a census-designated place, and current demographic information is available as shown on Table 10. As of 2009, the Larkfield-Wikiup community had a population of 7,600 residents and supported about 2,400 jobs. The community appears relatively stable based on its modest growth between 2000 and 2009. The average household income in Larkfield-Wikiup was $87,000 in 2009, 8.0 percent less than Windsor’s average household income of $94,000 in 2009. This differential lowers the average household income of the Total Trade Area to $93,000.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 29 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 10 Primary and Secondary Trade Area Demographics Used in Analysis Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
Item Source 2000 2008 2009 2010
Primary Trade Area (Windsor) Population CA Department of Finance 22,744 26,471 26,714 26,955 Households CA Department of Finance 7,728 9,265 9,315 9,329 Jobs ABAG and EPS 5,960 5,872 5,861 5,850 Mean Household Income ABAG and EPS $88,300 $93,660 $94,330 $95,000 Median Household Income US Census and EPS $74,326 $80,445 $81,033 $79,965
Secondary Trade Area (Larkfield-Wikiup) Population Claritas and EPS 7,479 7,588 7,602 not available Households Claritas and EPS 2,735 2,761 2,764 not available Jobs Claritas and EPS not available not available 2,387 not available Mean Household Income Claritas and EPS $69,750 $86,226 $86,856 not available 30 Median Household Income Claritas and EPS $58,043 $71,754 $72,278 not available
Total Trade Area Population sum of primary and secondary trade areas 30,223 34,059 34,316 not available Households sum of primary and secondary trade areas 10,463 12,026 12,079 not available Jobs sum of primary and secondary trade areas not available not available 8,248 not available Mean Household Income Claritas and EPS $74,973 $92,683 $93,360 not available Median Household Income Claritas and EPS $63,425 $78,407 $78,980 not available
Source: CA Dept. of Finance; ABAG; US Census; Claritas; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls
5. RETAIL MARKET ASSESSMENT
This chapter evaluates the performance and trends in the Town of Windsor’s retail market. The discussion focuses on the market demand and supply conditions within the Town and is intended to provide insight into the long-term opportunities and constraints facing this sector in Windsor.
According to the retail sales data,9 the Town’s retail sales experienced robust growth of 8.3 percent per year between 2003 and 2006, but have experienced decreasing sales volume since 2006. As shown on Table 11 and Figure 4, retail sales in 2008 were back to 2004 levels in nominal dollars and back to 2003 levels in inflation-adjusted dollars. This decrease is almost certainly because of the challenging economic conditions that were triggered by the recent collapse of the housing market and consistent with retail conditions across the nation and does not necessarily signal a worrisome trend unique to Windsor. Table 12 shows taxable retail sales in the Town of Windsor based on more detailed data than what is available from the SBE data shown in Table 11. Categories of retail that are considered “Other Retail” in the SBE data are more appropriately categorized in this table and allow for a more nuanced analysis of the performance of particular categories.
Retail Sales by Location
According to data evaluated by HdL and provided by the Town in summary form for FY2009/10, the Shiloh Commercial Center generates approximately 45 percent of the Town’s retail sales tax revenues. This is up from 42.5 percent in the 4th quarter of 2008 and 40.6 percent in the 4th quarter of 2007. Old Downtown Area generates approximately 4.2 percent of the Town’s retail sales tax revenues, up from 3.5 percent at the end of FY 2008 and comparable to performance at the end of FY 2007 (4.1 percent). The figures for the Lakewood Shopping Center do not reflect sales at the whole center (i.e., sales at Lakewood Village Shopping Center and Lakewood Shopping Center), but nevertheless, sales records indicate declining performance. In FY 2007, the Lakewood Shopping Center generated 2.9 percent of Townwide sales, declining to 2.7 percent in FY 2008 and 2.3 percent currently.
Current Retail Demand
An understanding of current sales patterns is necessary to assess potential for various types of retail. The analysis of retail sales inflows and outflows is designed to compare the supply of retail in a Trade Area with demand generated by residents in a Trade Area.10 In this case, the analysis examines the number of households in the Town, the average household income, and the percentage of income that typically is spent on various retail goods and services and
9 Data from the State Board of Equalization (SBE) is through 2008.
10 For purposes of this analysis, the Trade Area is defined as the Town of Windsor.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 31 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 11 Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$) Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
Retail Sales in $1,000s1 Growth (2003-2008) City 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 # % Annual
Taxable Sales [1] Apparel Stores $247 $510 $987 $1,492 $1,620 $1,114 $867 35.1% General Merchandise Stores [2] ------Food Stores [3] $19,119 $18,797 $18,635 $19,273 $18,147 $16,486 ($2,633) -2.9% Eating and Drinking Places $20,676 $22,604 $24,744 $26,031 $26,562 $27,314 $6,638 5.7% Home Furnishings and Appliances $2,468 $3,051 $3,394 $3,254 $2,892 $3,235 $767 5.6% Building Materials and Farm Implements [2] ------Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies $6,173 $7,362 $8,160 $7,591 $7,009 $8,796 $2,623 7.3% Service Stations [4] -- $23,851 $27,633 $31,758 $32,676 $33,303 $9,452 Other Retail Stores $164,583 $161,471 $166,553 $164,708 $143,250 $123,131 ($41,452) -5.6% 32 Total [5] $213,267 $237,647 $250,106 $254,108 $232,156 $213,379 $112 0.0%
[1] In thousands of dollars, adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index. [2] Sales for this category are not published because of the limited number of retailers. In order to maintain the sales of individual retailers confidential, the sales for this category are included in Other Retail Stores. [3] Does not reflect sales that are tax exempt, such as sales of food for off-premises consumption and prescription medicines. [4] Shows growth between 2004 and 2008. [5] This data reports taxable sales transactions that occur in retail stores. Taxable sales attributed to other outlets are not included.
Sources: California State Board of Equalization; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Figure 4 Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$) Source: California State Board of Equalization; HdL Companies; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
$260,000
$250,000
$240,000
33 $230,000
$220,000
$210,000
$200,000
$190,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Table 12 Town of Windsor Taxable Retail Sales, Detailed Account-Level Data, FY 2007/08 Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
Taxable Retail Sales in $1,000s City
Taxable Sales [1, 2] Apparel Stores $1,722 General Merchandise Stores $78,453 Food Stores $20,017 Eating and Drinking Places $29,003 Home Furnishings and Appliances $4,119 Building Materials and Farm Implements $81,778 Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies $12,923 Service Stations $32,241 Contractors $11,803 Farm Products/Equipment $20,821 Wineries $20,599 Other Retail Stores $27,751 Subtotal, Other Retail Stores $80,974 Other, not reported in account data due to confidentiality $1
Total $341,231
[1] In thousands of dollars, nominal. [2] Does not reflect sales that are tax exempt, such as sales of food for off-premises consumption and prescription medicines.
Sources: California State Board of Equalization Retail Sales Account Data; Town of Windsor; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 34 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Town of Windsor Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study Final Report 9/17/10
compares this expenditure potential to actual retail sales in the Town by category. A capture rate of more than 100 percent indicates that the Trade Area has retail sales greater than the demand generated by residents, indicating that the Trade Area is generating net sales from customers outside of the Trade Area (sales injection). A capture rate of less than 100 percent indicates that Trade Area residents are largely shopping for retail goods and services outside of the Trade Area (sales leakage), without offsetting inflows of spending from residents of other jurisdictions.
As shown on Table 13, the households in Windsor spend nearly $230 million on retail goods and services. According to the State Board of Equalization’s detailed sales tax account data for the Town, the retail stores in Windsor generate $378 million in sales (after adjusting for non-taxable food sales).
To bracket this analysis, EPS also evaluated the relative performance of the Town’s retail sector by compare average sales by retail category per household in Windsor to average sales per household statewide. An average household in California spends about $6,000 per year more than an average household in Windsor on retail goods (as shown on Table 14), indicating the Town is experiencing retail sales far in excess of what the Town’s households are spending. This sort of variance can signify the presence of business-to-business sales and/or injections of visitor spending.
EPS adjusted the Town’s 2007/2008 retail sales account data to exclude business-to-business sales from the leakage analysis equation—an appropriate adjustment given that such businesses do not directly serve either residents or visitors, but represent major contributors to the Town’s sales tax base. After this adjustment, “regular” Townwide retail sales to households and visitors still sums to more than $311 million.11 Comparing typical Windsor household spending to actual sales in Windsor results in an overall capture rate of 136 percent.
While this is a positive indicator, this analysis is more meaningful when evaluated for particular retail categories, as capture in one category can off-set leakage in another, obfuscating important variances, as shown in Figure 5.
Windsor performs exceptionally well in the “General Merchandise” category with a capture rate of 413 percent. This indicates that retailers, including Walmart, are pulling customers from outside the Town’s limits. The “Building Material and Farm Implements” category captures sales nearly four times beyond Windsor household demand. This category includes Home Depot which draws customers from well beyond Windsor’s boundaries.
The “Food Stores” category has a capture rate of 161 percent, which means that food stores in Windsor are drawing customers from outside of the Town. Given that Healdsburg, the next closest community to the north, has its own adequate supply of grocery stores (e.g., Safeway,
11 To exclude business-to-business sales, EPS excluded sales from specific building materials retailers that specialize in selling wholesale supplies to contractors and excluded 100 percent of sales in the farm products/equipment category. EPS also excluded sales in “other retail” categories such as “heavy industrial,” “petroleum products and equipment,” “business services,” “office equipment,” “non-store retailers,” and “part-time permittees.”
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 35 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 13 2008 Household Retail Sales and Estimated Demand in Windsor Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2008 2008 2007/2008 Excess Average HH Aggregate HH Retail Sales in Capture / 2008 Retail Retail Exps. Windsor (Leakage) Capture Retail Category Expenditures [1] ($1,000s) [2] ($1,000s) [3] ($1000s) Rate a b=a* HHs/1000 c d=c-b e=c/b
Apparel Stores $1,606 $14,530 $1,722 ($12,808) 12% General Merchandise $2,100 $18,993 $78,453 $59,460 413% Home Furnishings and Appliances $684 $6,190 $4,119 ($2,071) 67% Bldg. Matrl. And Farm Implements $1,268 $11,472 $42,570 $31,099 371% Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies $4,140 $37,454 $12,923 ($24,531) 35% Other Retail Stores [4] $3,373 $30,514 $53,133 $22,619 174% Food Stores [5] $3,939 $35,628 $57,192 $21,564 161% Eating and Drinking Places $5,204 $47,078 $29,003 ($18,075) 62% 36 Service Stations $3,032 $27,424 $32,241 $4,817 118% Total $25,346 $229,283 $311,356 $82,073 136%
[1] Based on 2008 median income. Calculated based on ABAG Projections 2009 assuming constant change in income annually between 2005 and 2010. Assumes constant 84% ratio of median to mean income. [2] Based on the total number of households in Windsor in 2008. Calculated based on ABAG Projections 2009 assuming constant change in the number of households annually between 2005 and 2010. [3] Sales have been adjusted to exclude business to business sales. [4] Includes contractors, farm products/equipment, wineries, personal services, and other retail stores. [5] Typically, only 35% of grocery purchases are taxable. SBE account sales tax data has been adjusted to reflect total retail sales.
Sources: BLS Expenditure Survey 2007-2008, SBE Retail Sales Account Data, FY 2007-2008, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Table 14 Household Spending by Category Compared with State, 2008 Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
Town of Windsor California Item Total Sales Sales per HH Sales Sales per HH Difference 9,046 Households[1] 12,177,852 Households [2]
Apparel Stores $1,114,000 $123 $22,120,094,000 $1,816 ($1,693) General Merchandise Stores -- -- $56,425,472,000 $4,633 -- Food Stores $16,486,000 $1,822 $21,504,308,000 $1,766 $57 Eating & Drinking Places $27,314,000 $3,019 $52,051,404,000 $4,274 ($1,255) Home Furnishings & Appliances $3,235,000 $358 $17,199,187,000 $1,412 ($1,055) Building Materials -- -- $26,647,007,000 $2,188 -- Motor Vehicles and Parts $8,796,000 $972 $54,540,171,000 $4,479 ($3,506) Service Stations $33,303,000 $3,682 $52,015,249,000 $4,271 ($590) Other Retail Stores $123,131,000 $13,612 $54,815,535,000 $4,501 $9,110
37 Total $213,379,000 $23,588 $357,318,427,000 $29,342 ($5,753)
[1] 2008 household estimate based on ABAG Projections 2009. [2] Based on the 2006-2008 American Community Survey.
Source: ABAG, Projections 2009; CA State Board of Equalization; U.S. Census; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Figure 5 Retail Sales and Estimated Demand Sources: Town of Windsor: BLS Expenditure Survey; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. $90,000
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$0 Apparel Stores General Home Bldg. Matrl. And Auto Dealers Other Retail Food Stores [3] Eating and Service Merchandise Furnishings Farm and Auto Stores [2] Drinking Places Stations and Appliances Implements Supplies
2008 Aggregate HH Retail Expenditures ($1,000s) 2007/2008 Retail Sales in Windsor ($1,000s) [1]
(1) SBE account-level data provided by the Town of Windsor has been adjusted to exclude business to business sales. (2) Includes specialty stores; packaged liquor stores; second-hand merchandise; fuel and ice dealers; mobile homes, trailers, campers; boat, motorcycle, and plane dealers; and business and personal services. (3) Typically, only 35% of grocery purchases are taxable. SBE sales tax has been adjusted to reflect total retail sales.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Town of Windsor Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study Final Report 9/17/10
Oakville Grocery, and Big John’s Market), it is most likely that customers are being drawn from south and west of the Town. Still, there is reason to believe that Windsor is not fully capturing its own residents’ potential expenditures on groceries and food items. A consumer survey would have yielded more nuanced information about where Windsor residents do their grocery shopping, but was not commissioned as part of this study. Anecdotally, however, it appears that some Windsor residents will travel to Santa Rosa to shop at Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, and Costco—for products and shopping experiences not available in Town.
The “Other Retail Stores” category has a high capture rate of 174 percent, but it includes contractors, farm products/equipment, wineries, personal services, and other retail stores that can pull from a larger trade area.
The Town of Windsor is capturing just 12 percent of its potential household spending in “Apparel Stores.” This retail category is experiencing significant leakage of resident spending. Without confirmation from a consumer survey, it is difficult to say for certain, but it would seem that Windsor residents are traveling to Santa Rosa, Petaluma, Marin County, San Francisco, and other out-of-town shopping areas to purchase apparel.
Only 62 percent of household spending in the “Eating and Drinking Places” category is being captured in the Town of Windsor. Again, it appears that many Windsor residents are traveling to other cities for dining experiences, with relatively little inflow of dining expenditures from outside the Town.
The Apparel and Eating and Drinking Places retail categories that are leaking sales suggest unmet demand and retail development opportunities that could be mitigated by working to attract retailers in these categories to the Town. These types of businesses are also highly appropriate for a Downtown setting, particularly one in which a highly utilized space such as Windsor’s Town Green can be relied upon to attract casual shoppers and patrons as part of their numerous events. Dividing the absolute value of the leaked sales in each of these categories by the Town’s average sales per square foot estimate yields the square footage that could be supported by current levels of spending in the Town, as shown on Table 15. This translation results in Townwide demand for 33,000 square feet of Apparel retailers and 46,000 square feet of Eating and Drinking Places. These square footage figures represent current market opportunities; as the Town’s population grows and spending power increases over time, still more square footage should be supportable in these retail categories.
The development of new restaurants that offer unique dining experiences and cater to a full range of customers from families to visiting business professionals should be prioritized in the Downtown Area. Because the development and buildout of restaurants requires special considerations (e.g., restrooms, kitchens, adequate venting), they should be anticipated early in the planning process. These specialized provisions are expensive and difficult to accommodate once the building is already constructed. Apparel stores and small-scale home furnishings stores do not require such unique attributes, but should also be viewed as priority opportunities for Downtown.
Certain other retail categories—including Home Furnishings and Appliances (67 percent capture) and Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies (35 percent capture) —represent opportunities for the Town overall, but may not be appropriate for the Downtown because of their typical requirements of
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 39 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 15 2008 Estimated Retail Demand for Select Categories in Windsor (in Square Feet) Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2008 2008 2007/2008 Excess 2008 Average HH Aggregate HH Retail Sales in Capture / Avg. Sales Townwide Retail Retail Exps. Windsor (Leakage) per Sq. Ft. Demand for Retail Retail Category Expenditures [1] ($1,000s) [2] ($1,000s) [3] ($1000s) [4] Square Footage a b=a* HHs/1000 c d=c-b
Apparel Stores $1,606 $14,530 $1,722 ($12,808) $390 32,841 Home Furnishings and Appliances $684 $6,190 $4,119 ($2,071) $390 5,312 Eating and Drinking Places $5,204 $47,078 $29,003 ($18,075) $390 46,346 Subtotal
[1] Based on 2008 median income. Calculated based on ABAG Projections 2009 assuming constant change in income annually between 2005 and 2010. Assumes constant 84% ratio of median to mean income. 40 [2] Based on the total number of households in Windsor in 2008. Calculated based on ABAG Projections 2009 assuming constant change in the number of households annually between 2005 and 2010. [3] Sales have been adjusted to exclude business to business sales. [4] Average sales per square foot based on Town's 2008 estimated average ($311 million in actual sales divided by 800,000 square feet of retail inventory).
Sources: BLS Expenditure Survey 2007-2008, SBE Retail Sales Account Data, FY 2007-2008, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Town of Windsor Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study Final Report 9/17/10
large buildings, ample parking, and freeway accessibility for shoppers and freight trucks. Small- scale Home Furnishings stores could certainly be appropriate in Downtown Windsor, but typical “name brand” stores such as Pier One Imports or Bed, Bath, and Beyond typically seek locations in more traditional shopping center formats, while upscale tenants like Crate & Barrel or Pottery Barn seek larger local populations than are found in Windsor—which will remain a Town of roughly 30,000 people for the foreseeable future.
The same analysis conducted for the secondary Trade Area (shown on Table 16), which includes the community of Larkfield-Wikiup, results in a capture rate of 102 percent, meaning that even after accounting for the demand generated by Larkfield-Wikiup residents, Windsor is capturing more sales than the Total Trade Area residents are making.
Total Retail Demand
The previous discussion focused on the percent of household spending captured by the Town’s retailers. However, employees and businesses also generate retail sales contributing to the Town’s aggregate retail expenditures.
More specifically, employees spend money during the work day on items such as lunch, after work drinks, dinner, general merchandise, grocery, variety, drug, and convenience items. The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) estimates that workers spend approximately $152 per week on these goods.12 To avoid double counting, the spending of employees in Windsor who also live in Windsor is only counted in household spending.
In addition, businesses spend money in the local economy to support their daily operations on items such as food, and kitchen and office supplies. IMPLAN, the input/output modeling program, estimates that the average Sonoma County office spends approximately $418 on retail items per employee per year.
The sum of these three categories of retail expenditures (household, employee, and businesses) are referred to as aggregate retail expenditures. When actual retail sales in the Town are compared with aggregate retail expenditures as shown on Table 17, the Town’s overall capture rate is 117 percent—still reflecting a net inflow of spending from outside the Town. The same analysis prepared for the Total Trade Area results in an overall capture rate of 86 percent.
Future Retail Demand Potential
Based on the population and employment projections described previously, as well as ABAG’s projected real growth in household income levels (beyond just basic inflation), Table 18 estimates the range of Townwide retail demand in 2035. The estimates consider aggregate
12 Estimate was inflated from $134 in 2003$ to $152 in 2008$, to match the year for which overall sales tax data is available for the Town.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 41 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 16 2008 Household Retail Sales and Estimated Demand in Total Trade Area Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2007/2008 2008 2008 Actual Excess Average HH Aggregate HH Retail Sales in Capture / 2008 Retail Retail Exps. Windsor (Leakage) Capture Retail Category Expenditures [1] ($1,000s) [2] ($1,000s) [3] ($1000s) Rate a b=a* HHs/1000 c d=c-b e=c/b
Apparel Stores $1,609 $19,433 $1,722 ($17,711) 9% General Merchandise $2,103 $25,402 $78,453 $53,051 309% Home Furnishings and Appliances $685 $8,279 $4,119 ($4,160) 50% Bldg. Matrl. And Farm Implements $1,270 $15,342 $42,570 $27,228 277% Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies $4,147 $50,092 $12,923 ($37,169) 26% Other Retail Stores [4] $3,379 $40,810 $53,133 $12,323 130% Food Stores [5] $3,945 $47,649 $57,192 $9,543 120% 42 Eating and Drinking Places $5,213 $62,963 $29,003 ($33,960) 46% Service Stations $3,036 $36,677 $32,241 ($4,436) 88% Total $25,387 $306,648 $311,356 $4,709 102%
[1] Based on 2008 median income, which is derived from 2009 median income data according to CPI (see Table 2). [2] Based on the total number of households in the Trade Area in 2009 (see Table 10). [3] Sales have been adjusted to exclude business to business sales. [4] Includes contractors, farm products/equipment, wineries, personal services, and other retail stores. [5] Typically, only 35% of grocery purchases are taxable. SBE sales tax has been adjusted to reflect total retail sales.
Sources: BLS Expenditure Survey 2007-2008, SBE Retail Sales Account Data, FY 2007-2008, Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Table 17 Estimated Actual Sales and Retail Demand Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2007/2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Actual Excess Household Employee Business Aggregate Retail Sales in Capture / 2008 Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Windsor (Leakage) Capture Item ($1,000s) ($1,000s) [1] ($1,000s) [2] ($1,000s) ($1,000s) [3] ($1000s) Rate
Windsor $229,283 $35,187 [4] $2,450 $266,920 $311,356 $44,436 117%
Total Trade Area $306,648 $51,398 [5] $3,448 $361,494 $311,356 ($50,137) 86%
[1] ICSC Study estimates weekly spending of $134 in $2003. Estimate is inflated to $2008 by annual CPI. Assumes $152 per week and 50 weeks per year. Includes workday retail spending on items such as lunch, after work drinks, dinner, general merchandise, grocery, variety, drug and convenience items. [2] Based on IMPLAN average for Sonoma County office sectors estimated at $418 per employee per year. 43 [3] Sales have been adjusted to exclude business to business sales. [4] Based on 2009 jobs data and 2000 Journey-to-Work data, employee expenditure estimates exclude the 21 percent of Windsor jobs filled by Windsor residents. The expenditure of residents that live and work in Windsor is captured by the estimate of household retail expenditures. [5] Based on 2009 jobs data and 2000 Journey-to-Work data, employee expenditure estimates exclude the 18 percent of Windsor and Larkfield-Wikiup jobs filled by Windsor and Larkfield-Wikiup residents.
Source: ICSC Research Quarterly, Spring 2004; Claritas; IMPLAN; BLS Expenditure Survey 2007-2008; SBE Taxable Sales 2008; Economic & Planning System
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7/28/2010 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Model\19141mod_072810.xls Table 18 Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035 Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2035 2035 2035 2035 2035 2035 2008 (2008-2035) Number of Average HH Household Employee Business Aggregate Aggregate Aggregate Households [1] Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Item in (2008$) [2] ($1,000s) ($1,000s) [3] ($1,000s) [4] ($1,000s) ($1,000s) [5] % Change
ABAG Projections, 2030 10,370 $33,398 $346,336 $66,700 $4,644 $417,680 $266,920 56% No Growth in Income [6] 10,370 $25,346 $262,842 $66,700 $4,644 $334,185 $266,920 25%
High Growth Estimate 15,403 $33,398 $514,414 $66,700 $4,644 $585,758 $266,920 119%
EPS Growth Estimate 12,290 $33,398 $410,460 $66,700 $4,644 $481,804 $266,920 81%
[1] ABAG projections assume 1,080 new households between 2010 and 2035. The high growth estimate continues the annual growth trend of the previous decade and assumes 6,113 new households during the 25-year period. EPS's estimate assumes 3,000 new households between 2010 and 2035. [2] ABAG 2009 Projections expect average household income to be $122,400 in 2035 (in constant $2005). Median household income is estimated to be $103,029 and is derived by assuming the ratio of median income to mean income will remain constant at 84%. Estimate is inflated to $2008. Given the rise in household income, assumes households in 2035 will spend a smaller
44 percentage of income on retail expenditures, 31%. Based on BLS consumer expenditure data for various income groups.
[3] Based on 2000 Journey-to-Work data, employee expenditure estimates exclude the 21 percent of Windsor jobs filled by Windsor residents. The expenditure of residents that live and work in Windsor is captured by the estimate of household retail expenditures. ICSC Study estimates weekly spending of $134 in $2003. Estimate is inflated to $2008 by annual CPI. Assumes $152 per week and 50 weeks per year. Includes workday retail spending on items such as lunch, after work drinks, dinner, general merchandise, grocery, variety, drug and convenience items. [4] Based on IMPLAN average for Sonoma County office sectors estimated at $418 per employee per year. This could be understated given high business to business sales in Windsor. [5] See Table 17. [6] Assumes household income will not experience real growth above inflation. Therefore, median household income will remain $78,282 (in constant 2008$) and households will continue to spend 32% of income on retail expenditures.
Source: ICSC Research Quarterly, Spring 2004; IMPLAN; BLS Expenditure Survey 2007-2008; SBE Taxable Sales 2008; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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household retail expenditures, aggregate employee retail spending, and aggregate business retail expenditures. Using ABAG’s household growth projections, the future retail demand analysis projects a 56 percent increase in Townwide retail demand in the next 25 years.13
The high household growth estimate results in a 119 percent increase in Townwide retail demand in the next 25 years. EPS’s 3,000 unit household growth assumption results in an 81 percent increase in Townwide retail demand. Assuming average retail sales of $390 per square foot in 2008 dollars, this increase in spending translates to demand for approximately 551,000 square feet of retail space, as calculated in Table 19.14
Based on the retail capture/leakage analysis, the “Eating and Drinking” and “Apparel” categories are leaking sales outside the Town. This leakage presents opportunities for developing significant new square footage for these tenant types today, and those opportunities will grow in the future as Windsor’s population, employment, and incomes increase.
13 This estimate does not reflect increases in the amount of visitor spending in the Town between 2010 and 2035.
14 The Town’s actual retail sales (excluding business-to-business sales) divided by the Town’s inventory of retail space (approximately 800,000 square feet) results in average sales per square foot of approximately $390.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 45 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 19 Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035 (in Square Feet) Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2035 2008 (2008-2035) (2008-2035) Aggregate Aggregate Aggregate Net Avg. Sales 2035 Demand Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Retail Exps. Increase per Sq. Ft. for Retail Item ($1,000s) [1] ($1,000s) [2] % Change ($1,000s) [3] Square Footage
ABAG Projections, 2035 $417,680 $266,920 56% $150,760 $390 386,565 No Growth in Income [4] $334,185 $266,920 25% $67,265 $390 172,476
High Growth Estimate $585,758 $266,920 119% $318,838 $390 817,534
EPS Growth Estimate $481,804 $266,920 81% $214,884 $390 550,986
[1] See Table 8. 46 [2] See Table 17. [3] Based on previous EPS research. [5] Assumes household income will not experience real growth above inflation. Therefore, median household income will remain $78,282 (in constant 2008$) and households will continue to spend 32% of income on retail expenditures.
Source: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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6. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
Based on ABAG population and employment projections through 2035, the number of households is expected to increase by 0.4 percent per year while the number of jobs grows by 2.5 percent per year, resulting in only modest increases in demand for new retail. Even using EPS’s more optimistic household growth projections, the number of households is only expected to increase by 3,000 units in the next 25 years. The implication of this limited growth potential is that to maintain and grow existing levels of retail sales in the Town, Windsor will need to identify strategies for increasing retail sales by tapping into other sources of demand.
Windsor is a family-friendly community, well-located along Highway 101 at the intersection of the Russian River Valley, Alexander Valley, and Dry Creek Valley in Sonoma County’s wine country, but it has not been able to fully capitalize on these assets and brand itself as a wine country destination the way Healdsburg and other communities in the County have. However, Windsor is a different town than it was just a decade ago. The Downtown, in particular, has been transformed into an attractive mixed-use district with unique retail offerings, successful restaurants, and family-friendly activities and events all oriented around the expansive Town Green. Windsor is not likely to ever become Healdsburg, nor will it ever be Santa Rosa, but with some strategic and timely repositioning, Windsor will be well positioned to build on its emerging identity as a family friendly destination in Sonoma County’s wine country and capture more of Sonoma’s County’s visitor spending in the process.
The Town’s retail development potential varies by category of retail and location within the Town. The following discussion focuses on three strategic zones of retail in the Town, informed by existing development patterns and potential opportunities. These zones include community destination retail on either side of Highway 101 in the southern portion of the Town, the Downtown Area, including the Bell Village Project site, and the northern portion of the Town, along Highway 101 and Old Redwood Highway north of Arata Lane. The types of retail categories assessed include: 1) local serving, 2) regional destination, and 3) visitor-based retail, which includes tourism, business, and conference-serving retail.
Southern Windsor
The southern portion of the Town where the Shiloh Center is located has already emerged as the Town’s regional retail node with the presence of large-scale big box retailers Walmart, Home Depot, and Office Depot.
Regional Destination Retail
Regional retail centers are usually anchored by large department stores (such as Macy’s), “big box” stores (such as Target), and/or a large movie theaters with nine or more screens. These centers are filled with various “in-line” stores that complete the centers’ offering of an extensive selection of general merchandise, as well as a broad range of services and activities. These types of retail centers draw consumers from a broad trade area and thus rely on both local and regional traffic. As such, regional retailers seek to locate in an area with high traffic volume,
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freeway visibility and accessibility and a large population base. Below, each type of regional retail in or near the Market Area is discussed, and potential for these uses within the Town is evaluated.
Department Store-Anchored Retail Regional malls are usually anchored by one or more department stores such as Macy’s and Nordstrom and are co-located with a number of apparel and specialty stores. The Town does not have any department stores that can serve as an anchor for a regional retail center. However, there are two regional malls (Coddingtown and Santa Rosa Plaza) in Santa Rosa, within easy driving distance of the Town. These regional malls have major department stores, such as Macy’s, JC Penny, and Gottschalk’s (see Table 9). The City of Santa Rosa has a large concentration of regional retailers, serving a large proportion of the County residents including those from the Town’s Trade Areas.
Department stores often look to locate in an area with high traffic volume and population density (i.e., over 200,000 population within the trade area). This is evident in the current location of the department stores in the County. Both Coddingtown and Santa Rosa Marketplace are located right off of Highway 101, in the most populated city in the County. While Windsor does experience relatively high traffic volume because of its location along Highway 101, the Town’s secondary retail Trade Area population is 33,500 well below the 200,000-plus population density sought by department stores for their trade areas.
Even if Windsor is able to draw consumers from all the unincorporated areas of the County, the population count is still well below the level required by department stores. Therefore, it would be difficult to attract a national chain department store to Windsor. However, there are independent department stores that are much smaller in scale (i.e., 15,000 to 20,000 square feet), such as McCaulou’s15. These types of department stores may be willing to locate in Windsor especially if the Town’s Market Area can be expanded by strengthening its appeal as a unique shopping destination, and through effective marketing.
Big Box Retail Retail stores in large industrial-style buildings and which draw consumers from a large trade area are collectively referred to as “big box” retail. Discount stores such as Walmart and Target are archetypes of such retail stores. In particular, big box retailers rely on auto traffic to draw consumers. As such, freeway visibility and access, ample parking and high traffic volume are critical to big box stores. In addition, “big box” retail stores compete heavily based on price.
Currently, the Town has a Walmart, a Home Depot, and an Office Depot. If more of this type of retail use were to be desired, there are several key market considerations in attracting this type of retailer. First, beyond the big box stores already located in Windsor, several big box stores are already located within relatively close driving distances from the Town. Santa Rosa has
15 McCaulou’s is an independent department store featuring apparel as well as cosmetics and gift items. There are currently nine locations in the Bay Area, including Lafayette, Moraga, Danville, Oakland, Orinda, Sonoma, Walnut Creek, Concord and Napa. This retailer’s preferred size is 16,600 square feet according to the 2006 Retail Tenant Directory published by TradeDimensions.
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one—if not two—of nearly every category of big box store. As shown on Table 9, there are eleven big box stores within ten driving miles of the Town, representing nearly every national big box chain. In fact, almost every chain already has two stores located in the County, targeting shoppers from different regions of the County. On the other hand, the Town does enjoy direct visibility and access from Highway 101, a key criterion for big box retailers. The Town also has available land zoned Gateway Commercial, the zoning designation that supports regional retail uses. Additionally, though it may seem counter-intuitive, the Town’s Walmart could actually attract the interest of other General Merchandise big box stores that like to co-locate with one another to some degree. The presence of a Walmart indicates that there is sufficient market demand for general merchandise discount retail to support the store.
Target is reportedly interested in opening a store on the site west of Highway 101 and north of Shiloh Road. Target stores typically require floor plates of approximately 120,000 square feet. Though a Target would compete to some degree with the Walmart at Shiloh Center, as both retailers sell discount general merchandise, it would also capture spending of residents north of Windsor, residents in Windsor, and residents to the south into northern Santa Rosa. See Table 20 for locations of the nearest Target stores. Other big box stores to consider pursuing include Best Buy, Old Navy, and Cost Plus.
Entertainment-Based Retail A retail center anchored by an entertainment tenant can serve as a regional attraction. The most common types of entertainment anchored retail centers are those with large movie theatres surrounded by restaurants and other retailers. Typically about 10,000 residents are required to support a movie screen. The Town of Windsor does not have a movie theater—the closest theater is just south of the Town on Airport Blvd. A small independent or art-house theater could be a good complement to the Town’s existing retail base, and there is adequate population to support such a use.
Mini Outlet A small scale outlet center may also be possible in the Town by serving tourists as well as the local community’s demand for apparel and other consumer goods. While there is a large outlet in Petaluma with over 50 stores, Windsor may be able to offer a much smaller-scale shopping experience, consistent with and complementary to Downtown retail, to attract visitors who may prefer unique small-town shopping experience on their way to other destinations.
One model is the 23,000-square foot outlet center in St. Helena. This center contains nine tenants with a mix of men and women’s apparel and accessory stores as well as an art gallery (e.g., Coach, Tumi, and Sunglasses Outfitters). It succeeds despite a large outlet center located in the City of Napa by leveraging tourist traffic along with local resident demand.
Development Implications
To capture more of the regional retail dollars being spent outside of Windsor, the Town could try to attract additional large format, general merchandise retailers to the southern part of Town. EPS believes that Southern Windsor is the appropriate location for this category of retail, as residents of Windsor and residents of communities north of Windsor are already driving through Windsor to get to these stores; they are also driving past Windsor to shop at regional retail
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 49 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 20 Competitive Supply of Big Box Retail Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
Driving Distance From Windsor Stores Address City (miles)
Office Depot 6400 Hembree Lane Windsor 0 Home Depot 6280 Hembree Lane Windsor 0 Walmart 6650 Hembree Lane Windsor 0 Target 1980 Santa Rosa Ave Santa Rosa 10 Office Depot 1960 SANTA ROSA AVENUE Santa Rosa 10 Kohl's 3746 Airway Dr. Santa Rosa 10 Bed Bath & Beyond 2785 Santa Rosa Avenue Santa Rosa 10 Home Depot 100 Bicentennial Way Santa Rosa 10 Best Buy 1950 Santa Rosa Ave Santa Rosa 10 Trader Joe's 3225 Cleveland Avenue Santa Rosa 10 Trader Joe's 2100 Santa Rosa Ave. Santa Rosa 10 Target 475 Rohnert Park Expy W Rohnert Park 17 Walmart 4625 Redwood Dr Rohnert Park 17 Home Depot 350 N Orchard Ave Ukiah 50 Walmart 1155 Airport Park Blvd Ukiah 50
Source: Shopping Center Directory; Respective Retailer Websites; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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stores in Santa Rosa. This could draw the Larkfield-Wikiup population between Windsor and northern Santa Rosa. If the Town of Windsor increased its supply of regional retailers in the southern part of the Town, the Larkfield-Wikiup population could be attracted north.
There are opportunity sites for regional retail south of Shiloh Road and east of Highway 101, such as the Vicinni site and opportunity sites across Highway 101, north of Shiloh Road, such as the Oluf property (current General Plan designations notwithstanding). There is also vacant land designated “Gateway Commercial” north and south of the Highway interchange (west of Highway 101), but as currently configured, these parcels are not attractive to large-format retailers because of inadequate site acreage. Furthermore, even though these sites are located right at the interchange, the on and off ramps are difficult to navigate at this location. However, if these parcels were consolidated with the adjacent Oluf property, for example, or the adjacent land designated “Light Industrial,” the site becomes more attractive to regional retailers. The parcels designated “Light Industrial” are currently occupied. The current property and business owners could be approached to determine whether or not they are potentially interested in consolidating their operations into a more efficient site layout, which would increase the land available for destination regional retail in southern Windsor.
Downtown Windsor
With the development of Old Downtown and the Village Green in the early 2000s, Downtown Windsor is maturing into an attractive center of Town life. (See Figure 6 for a map of the Downtown Area that highlights each of the key subareas discussed below.) The retail space is nearly fully occupied and generating strong per square foot rents, despite current market conditions. However, the current mix of stores is not serving the Town as well as it might. The retail offerings include unique gift and craft shops, jewelry stores, and other specialty stores, but they do not provide the goods and services Town residents and employees seek on a daily basis. Old Downtown lacks a true retail anchor that keeps residents and employees returning to the area to browse and shop. An anchor would induce shoppers to park once and run a number of errands all in one trip.
The Town Green acts as an occasional anchor for the area, hosting frequent events during the temperate spring, summer and fall months such as the Easter Egg Hunt, the Windsor Days Parade, the 4th of July Concert and Fireworks Show, the Wings over Wine Country Air Show, Summer Nights on the Green, and the weekly Farmers Market. Though the Town’s events are extremely successful, drawing crowds that pack the Town Green, the events are not activating the retail businesses in the rest of the Downtown to the extent they perhaps could. Some businesses, such as Powell’s Sweet Shoppe and the take-away eateries benefit from the activity, but most do not.
The development of new restaurants that offer unique dining experiences and cater to a full range of customers from families to visiting business professionals should be prioritized in the Downtown Area. Apparel stores and small-scale home furnishings stores should also be viewed as priority opportunities for Downtown.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 51 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Figure 6: O O O
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 52 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Maps\MapInfo\Figure_7.wor Town of Windsor Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study Final Report 9/17/10
Anchor Concepts
EPS spoke with a number of Windsor market experts, including the Executive Director of the Chamber of Commerce, developers who have worked and are working in Town, Town staff, and a real estate broker familiar with the Windsor market. They all agree that Downtown is lacking an anchor, and there were several “anchor” concepts that emerged in the discussions between EPS and key individuals during the development of the retail market analysis and positioning strategy, including a grocery store, a boutique hotel, and a meeting/conference facility. Several specific sites also emerged as opportunity sites worthy of evaluation.
100 Market
One site that has potential to serve as a Downtown anchor is 100 Market. 100 Market, located at the northeastern end of the Town Green, was the home of Windsor Vineyards until earlier this year. The current owner envisions the 42,000 square foot property as a landmark retail building. However, the building was recently leased to a solar panel component manufacturer for a five- year term, so it will not be available for retail tenanting, at least in the near term.
Given the property’s location right on the Town Green, the retail vision may make sense in the longer term; however, repeated efforts to attract the attention of grocery, pharmacy, and specialty food retailers have failed. For many grocers, the demographics of the Trade Area simply do not align with the number of households they know they need to achieve their target sales. Other grocers cite the unconventional floorplate, the lack of parking, and the lack of visibility.
There are less conventional food related uses that could be considered. The “locavore” movement that emphasizes only consuming foods that are grown or harvested within a 100-mile radius, the slow foods movement that links food with a commitment to community and the environment, and, of course, the increasing emphasis on organic farming practices all suggest growing demand for food shopping experiences beyond what a standard, national-chain supermarket can provide. While concepts like the Ferry Building in San Francisco or the Oxbow Public Market in Napa would not be feasible given the scale at which they need to operate to sustain themselves and the size of Windsor’s population base, a smaller, more rustic market could operate out of 100 Market.
100 Market has also been considered for a hotel, which could be an attractive presence on the Town Green and would bring visitors to the Downtown. However, to be financially feasible, the hotel would need to include approximately 200 to 250 rooms, which would likely require a total reconstruction of the building, including underground parking, or acquisition of adjacent sites for surface parking.
The concept of a meeting and convention facility could work well with the floorplate of 100 Market. There is a large central area that could serve as the banquet hall, and there are perimeter offices that could serve as meeting rooms. There could be synergies in being on the Town Green; events could take advantage of the expansive open space right out in front. Concerns about this concept are primarily operational: it would need an operator; it is poorly
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parked; and because it would stand-alone without the benefit of subsidization by hotel rooms, it would likely require financial operating assistance. This concept is discussed further in Chapter 8.
Ideas for Further Study
The prime location of 100 Market, centrally located in the Downtown and overlooking the Town Green, potentially lends itself to a civic use. Currently, Town Hall is located in several adjacent but separate buildings that used to be occupied by the School District. The site is inefficiently used and the structures are not consistent with New Urbanist aesthetic of the rest of the Downtown. One strategy could be to relocate Town Hall’s operations to 100 Market and free up the civic center parcels for consolidation, disposition, and development of a 200-plus room hotel, spa and sports club, and conference, meeting and event facility. This facility could be developed as Windsor’s version of the Sonoma Mission Inn and be a very attractive addition to Old Downtown.16 This strategy would complete the Town Green in that the Green would be completely surrounded by active uses, and more importantly, it would allow Windsor to capture more of Sonoma County’s visitor dollars.
If this complicated but potentially transformative strategy is compelling, a master plan study should be prepared that evaluates the physical requirements and design of the reconfigured area, as well as the financial considerations that would be involved, including an analysis of the outstanding public debt on the current Town Hall site and potential financing strategies for necessary consolidation and infrastructure improvements.
Northern Windsor
Beyond Bonaventure Plaza, there is a significant amount of land in northern Windsor on either side of Highway 101 that is designated Gateway Commercial. As noted previously, EPS believes the most appropriate location within the Town for regional retail is in southern Windsor around the Shiloh interchange. Northern Windsor may be more appropriate for residential or mixed use development. Apart from the types of retail stores that serve nearby residents, northern Windsor does not display strong retail development potential. However, as the Town’s population increases, additional demand for neighborhood retail shopping may emerge.
Grocery-Anchored Neighborhood Shopping Center
Neighborhood retail shopping centers typically need an anchor tenant to provide the main draw for customers and lend a central and unifying identity to the location. Local serving shopping centers are often anchored by a grocery store and/or drug store and attract tenants that cater to local residents, such as dry cleaners, nail salons, and eating and drinking places. In fact, it is very difficult to establish a neighborhood shopping center without a significantly-sized grocery
16 The Fairmont Sonoma Mission Inn is a 226-room inn with 12,000 square feet of indoor meeting space and another 12,000 square feet of outdoor event space.
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store. Typically, this type of retail center occupies 75,000 to 150,000 square feet of space. Examples of this type of retail center in Windsor include Lakewood Village Shopping Center and Lakewood Shopping Center.
Auto Dealerships
Sanderson Ford is currently operating in Healdsburg but has been approved to develop a dealership at the northernmost point of the Town. When customers are looking to buy a car, they will travel well beyond their primary trade area to do so, so locating at the northern point of Town rather than the southern point where EPS recommends the Town’s regional destination retail should be located is not a significant risk. Furthermore, there appears to be unmet demand in the “Auto Dealers and Auto Supplies” category. Currently, the Town is leaking sales this category, capturing only 35 percent of residents’ spending. Despite dramatic changes in the economics of the auto industry and evolving consumer behavior with respect to how people buy cars, an auto dealership would be a significant fiscal benefit to the Town.
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7. BELL VILLAGE
The Bell Village Project is located northeast of Old Redwood Highway across from the Civic Center and Library. In addition to approximately 400 residential units, the project proposes 77,500 square feet of commercial space, including 12,000 square feet of office space and 65,500 square feet of retail. The retail component includes a 32,500- square foot specialty grocery market, a 21,000-square foot pharmacy, and 12,000 square feet of general in-line retail.
This chapter evaluates the potential impact of 65,500 square feet of proposed commercial retail space at the Bell Village site on existing retail Downtown as well as on the supply of vacant land that is zoned for commercial use.
Bell Village Project Retail Mix
The Bell Village retail component includes a 32,500-square foot specialty grocery market, a 21,000-square foot pharmacy, and 12,000 square feet of general in-line retail on approximately six acres. A retail sales flow analysis based on 2008 household spending and retail sales in the Town shows the level of sales in the categories of Food Stores and General Merchandise are well beyond what might be expected based on the aggregate household spending in the Town.17 As shown on Table 13, these findings suggest insufficient demand currently for new conventional retailers in these categories, although as the Town grows, new households may be able to support additional retail. The sales flow analysis is not able to distinguish between conventional and specialty food stores, as discussed below. Each of the primary proposed uses is discussed in more detail in the following text.
Grocery Store
Many believe that the Downtown is missing a grocery store, particularly a grocery store that provides a different shopping experience than Raley’s and Safeway at the Lakeview Center. EPS used two different methodologies to analyze potential demand for a grocery store in order to evaluate whether an additional grocery store can be supported in the Town.
Currently, there are two major grocery stores in Windsor (Raley’s and Safeway), in addition to several other grocery stores, including Fast & Easy Mart, Windsor Market, Sam’s Market, and Martin’s Market. According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, a typical household spends about 5 percent of its income on grocery items. Based on the existing 9,300 households in the Town and a median, 2010 income of $86,000, a total of $40 million of potential sales exists within the Town for grocery items (see Table 21). Grocery stores typically require per- square foot sales volume of approximately $500, which translates to approximately
17 The grocery store would be categorized as a “Food Store” and the pharmacy and associated in-line retail would be categorized as “General Merchandise.”
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 56 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 21 Grocery Store Demand Analysis, 2035 Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2010 2009 2035 2035 2035 Windsor Total Trade Area Windsor Windsor Windsor Item ABAG Claritas ABAG High Growth EPS Growth
Households 9,290 12,079 10,370 15,403 12,290
Median HH Income (in 2010$) [1] $86,145 $80,165 $110,992 $110,992 $110,992
Aggregate HH Income $800,290,642 $968,309,411 $1,150,982,163 $1,709,556,482 $1,364,085,900
Retail Expenditure on Grocery [2] $40,014,532 $48,415,471 $57,549,108 $85,477,824 $68,204,295
Required Sales/ Sq. Ft./ Year for a New Store [3] $500 $500 $500 $500 $500
57 Supportable Sq. Ft. of Grocery Store 80,029 96,831 115,098 170,956 136,409
Existing Major Grocery Stores (Sq. Ft.) [4] 109,100 109,100 109,100 109,100 109,100
Additional Supportable Grocery Store (Sq. Ft.) (29,071) (12,269) 5,998 61,856 27,309
[1] The median household income for the Total Trade Area is a 2009 estimate inflated to 2010$. [2] Assumes households spend 5% of their income on grocery items, based on typical household retail spending patterns in the Bay Area. [3] Required sales per square foot estimate is based on prior EPS research. [4] Includes Raley's (56,500 sq.ft.) and Safeway (52,600 sq. ft.).
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG); Claritas; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); Shopping Center Directory; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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80,000 square feet of supportable grocery square footage. The Town currently has more than 109,000 square feet of grocery stores, based on the combined square footage of Raley’s and Safeway only.
The retail sales flow analysis mentioned described earlier compares aggregate household spending in a particular retail category with actual retail sales in that category. In 2008, Food Stores captured 161 percent of household spending on grocery items, indicating that the Town is capturing sales from households outside the Town.
When taking the 12,000 households in the larger Trade Area at a median household income of $80,000, approximately 97,000 square feet of grocery stores can be supported (also shown on Table 21). Together, the major grocery stores in the Market Area total approximately 110,000 square feet, leaving no room for another conventional grocery store carrying similar lines of products as the existing ones.
However, this type of analysis looks at gross sales flows and belies what we anecdotally know to be true; in the case of grocery stores, while consumers from outside the Town are spending some of their grocery dollars in the Town, some percentage of Windsor households travel to Santa Rosa to shop at niche grocery retailers such as Whole Foods, Trader Joes, and Costco.
Both analytical approaches suggest insufficient demand for a new conventional grocery store at the present time. More specifically, a new conventional grocery store is likely to take sales away from existing stores rather than serve additional demand. However, households in the Town have relatively high incomes relative to households Countywide and high incomes are typically accompanied by a preference for specialty food items. Further, the Town’s population is not static and will increase in the coming years. Using EPS’s household growth projections, there may be demand for additional grocery space beginning in around 2025, as shown on Table 22. An additional 27,000 square feet of grocery retail could be supported by 2035. A small-format, quality grocery store, offering local, organic produce and specializing in prepared foods could potentially retain some of this lost local spending, and be viable over the long term in the Town of Windsor—particularly in the Downtown area.
Pharmacy
There are several pharmacies already located in the Town in Windsor. At Lakewood Village, there is a CVS, as well as pharmacies inside both Raley’s and Safeway. There is also a pharmacy in the Walmart at Shiloh Village, and there is a fifth pharmacy located Downtown called Health First! Health First! is a pharmacy and compounding center that specializes in homeopathic medicine. Because Health First! caters to different segment of the market than the Town’s other conventional pharmacies, its sales are unlikely to be impacted by a new pharmacy at Bell Village. However, some current sales from the other existing pharmacies would likely be cannibalized by the new pharmacy.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 58 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 22 Windsor Grocery Store Demand Analysis Based on EPS Household Growth Projections Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Windsor Windsor Windsor Windsor Windsor Windsor Item EPS Growth EPS Growth EPS Growth EPS Growth EPS Growth EPS Growth
Households [1] 9,290 9,825 10,390 10,988 11,621 12,290
Median HH Income (in 2010$) [2] $86,145 $89,773 $93,128 $98,296 $104,553 $110,992
Aggregate HH Income $800,290,642 $881,995,890 $967,629,376 $1,080,127,732 $1,215,017,059 $1,364,085,900
Retail Expenditure on Grocery [3] $40,014,532 $44,099,795 $48,381,469 $54,006,387 $60,750,853 $68,204,295
Required Sales/ Sq. Ft./ Year for a New Store [4] $500 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500
Supportable Sq. Ft. of Grocery Store 80,029 88,200 96,763 108,013 121,502 136,409
59 Existing Major Grocery Stores (Sq. Ft.) [5] 109,100 109,100 109,100 109,100 109,100 109,100
Additional Supportable Grocery Store (Sq. Ft.) (29,071) (20,900) (12,337) (1,087) 12,402 27,309
[1] Based on EPS's household growth projection through 2035. [2] The median household income is an ABAG estimate inflated to 2010$. [3] Assumes households spend 5% of their income on grocery items, based on typical household retail spending patterns in the Bay Area. [4] Required sales per square foot estimate is based on prior EPS research. [5] Includes Raley's (56,500 sq.ft.) and Safeway (52,600 sq. ft.).
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); Shopping Center Directory; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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Assessment of Impact of Bell Village
The mix of retail uses proposed for the Bell Village site is not likely to compete directly with Downtown retailers, and therefore, unlikely to have a physical impact on Downtown in terms of increased vacancies. Rather, if appropriately located, a specialty grocery store along with other resident-serving retail could attract shoppers to the Downtown area. That said, EPS believes that the Downtown area would be better served by bringing the grocery to the other side of Old Redwood Highway and along Windsor River Road. A new conventional pharmacy, however, could attract sales away from existing pharmacies such as those located at the Lakewood Village Center as well as the pharmacy in Walmart.
If this retail is developed and attracts sales of $390 per square foot per year on average, the Bell Village Project represents $25.5 million of sales per year, or 7 percent of the Town’s sales in 2008.18 This amount of retail at the Bell Village Project site could extend the existing retail cluster in the Downtown while serving the development’s new residents, as well as existing residents in the Downtown area.
Ideas for Further Study
The Bell Village Project could serve to extend Downtown north of Old Redwood Highway, but only if the improved pedestrian connections and streetscape improvements along the Highway are designed to really integrate the southern portion of the Bell Village site and the Downtown (see Figure 6.) If the retail planned for the Bell Village site is determined to be infeasible, or the project does not otherwise move forward for some reason, the concept of a hotel, spa and sports club, and conference, meeting and event facility may be appropriate for the Bell Village Project Site. Hotel guests and conference attendees will be more willing to cross Old Redwood Highway to walk Downtown for a meal out at a restaurant or some casual shopping than residents might be. The retail component of the project currently proposed for the Bell Village Project site could be a strong use for the current Town Hall site if Town Hall consolidated its services in 100 Market. Relocating the Bell Village retail to the Town Hall site would bring a grocer, a pharmacy, and other inline, neighborhood-serving retailers to the Downtown, allowing for even better integration of Downtown’s retail offerings.
As with the 100 Market option described previously, this strategy could be a game-changer for the Downtown, but a master plan study that evaluates the site planning and the financial considerations that would be involved should be prepared.
18 65,500 x $390 = $25,545,000
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8. VISITOR-SERVING RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY MARKET ASSESSMENT
Sonoma County is a major tourist destination, attracting domestic as well as international travelers. Table 23 compares visitor-generated tax receipts by Bay Area county and indicates that Sonoma County generates $28.2 million in visitor tax receipts. Despite the economic downturn that caused a dip in the tourism industry, the County overall has a $1 billion tourism industry, which is expected to diversify and continue to grow.19 Located along a major highway at the hub of the Russian River Valley, the Dry Creek Valley, and Anderson Valley, Windsor can promote its position and proximity to the County’s wineries, coast, and other attractions.
Although the Town’s location along Highway 101 makes for convenient access, the Town does not currently offer a major attraction or an identifiable theme with which to draw County visitors and capture their retail spending. The Town could position itself to capture an even greater share of the County’s visitor spending activity by developing and strengthening opportunities to serve the visitor market. Several tourism-related retail concepts that may be able to help build or sustain Windsor as a tourist destination are described below.
Branding and Place-Making
As noted above, one key aspect of successful tourist-oriented retail districts is its unique identity or “brand”. Oftentimes this brand is centered around one key or anchor attraction (e.g., Yosemite, Hollywood, Disneyland) but it can also be associated with a series of related concepts (e.g., art, wine, nature). For example, Carmel has successfully integrated images of the ocean, culture (e.g., art galleries and dining), architecture, and history into an identifiable brand that attracts tourists worldwide. The Sebastopol Chamber of Commerce is currently engaged in an identity project. One theme that has already surfaced is a focus on “wellness”-related businesses (e.g. businesses focused on physical or mental health for therapeutic and/or recreation/leisure purposes). Windsor needs to explore options that resonate with the Town’s family values and location in the heart of Sonoma’s wine country, that are not limited to summer activities on the Town Green. Windsor is a “real” community nestled in the wine country that celebrates local agriculture and produce, wine, and family.
Downtown Retail
Windsor’s Downtown already has established clusters of retail in “main street” configuration, a gathering place for the community that is pedestrian-friendly with narrow streets and clusters of specialty stores and eateries. This retail space currently has very low vacancy. A Chamber of Commerce representative indicated that the first wave of retailers to occupy the Downtown in the mid-2000s may have overestimated the spending power of Windsor’s residents. There has
19 Sonoma County Economic Development Board, 2006 Tourism Report, June 2006.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 61 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 23 Visitor-Generated Tax Receipts by County Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
% of 2007 Receipts Receipts per California County (in millions) Household Receipts
San Francisco $283.8 $884 13.1% Napa $31.1 $649 1.4% San Mateo $65.9 $262 3.0% Santa Clara $98.9 $171 4.6% Sonoma $28.2 $162 1.3% Alameda $73.3 $139 3.4% Marin $11.0 $110 0.5% Contra Costa $25.4 $69 1.2% Solano $7.5 $55 0.3% Bay Area Total $625.1 -- 28.8%
California $2,166.8 $176 100.0%
Source: California Travel Impacts by County, 1992-2007 by: Dean Runyan Associates, Inc.; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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been some turnover and current retailers have more accurately gauged the Town’s customer base. Brokers active in the area indicate a strong demand and quick turnover of retail space in the Downtown.
As discussed previously, the retail cluster in the Downtown already plays a significant role in attracting shoppers from the Market Area by offering a unique, small-town shopping experience that is not available in neighboring Santa Rosa. However, the Downtown area will continue to evolve, and Windsor’s Old Downtown appears to be a particularly appropriate location for Apparel Stores and Eating and Drinking Places, as these tend to be relatively small-scale businesses that benefit from programmed spaces such as the Town Green, which attracts window shoppers and diners through its evening and weekend events. The Eating and Drinking Places permitted Downtown should stand apart from the fast-food/ family-style eateries located at the Shiloh Center and the Lakewood Village Shopping Center by serving alcohol and by the quality of the food and service offered. Smaller Home Furnishings stores may also be appropriate for Downtown Windsor, although trends in “name brand” Home Furnishing stores suggest they may prefer larger buildings in freeway-oriented locations, as are available elsewhere in Windsor.
Local Boutiques
Tourist-oriented retail districts often succeed by providing a unique mix of small-scale “boutique” stores that offer arts, crafts, clothing, accessories and other goods or services with a distinctive local flavor. By definition, this retail strategy in not formulaic and the actual tenant mix and product types will differ depending on the location. However, such districts often include a mix of dining and local eateries, galleries, and independent establishments providing both goods and services (e.g., spa).
Meeting/Conference Facility
Discussions with the Executive Director of the Agatha Furth Center suggested that there is unmet demand for an event facility in the Town of Windsor. The Agatha Furth Center is the Town’s only event facility that offers a large, elegant hall, with enough space to seat 450 people. The facility is operating at capacity, and because it is operated by the Our Lady of Guadalupe Catholic Church, its priority is to accommodate the church’s needs and events.
Though there are other facilities in the area that can be rented out for events, ranging from the Sonoma County Veterans Hall to high-end wineries, there is reported demand for a meeting/conference/event facility that can accommodate 500 or more people for a sit-down meal. Types of events could include private celebrations (e.g., weddings, quinceñeras, anniversary and birthday parties), private community serving events (e.g., fundraisers for Rotary, Kiwanis, and other business organizations), and community events sponsored by non- profit and educational organizations (e.g., award banquets for schools, proms, conferences). In addition to serving local demand, such a facility could also allow the Town to tap into the County’s strong visitor industry by serving the sizable market for “drive-to” conferences, business meetings, and seminars—all of which can draw visitors from outside the area.
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However, the economics of operating a stand-alone meeting/ conference facility are challenging and such facilities typically require financial support. Financial support could take the form of public investment or the operations of the facility can be cross-subsidized by an adjacent and/or interconnected hotel.
Boutique Hotel
There are two hotels in Town—the Hampton Inn & Suites and the Holiday Inn Express—as well as a time share resort, WorldMark Windsor by Wyndham, as shown on Table 24. The Hampton Inn and Holiday Inn Express offer relatively affordable lodging options to the County visitors. The occupancy rate at the Hampton Inn Suites is approximately 70 percent, which is considered to be the threshold for operational feasibility. Occupancy rates at the Holiday Inn Express were not available; however, the Town is reportedly interested in preparing further analysis to evaluate potential future demand for a new hotel. According to the Sonoma County Tourism Bureau, the year-do-date hotel occupancy rate for the County was about 65 percent for the year, up about 5 percent from last year.
As noted above, the current demand for hotel rooms in Windsor is served primarily by two moderately priced establishments. If visitor demand growth continues to expand as expected, the Town will be well positioned to support additional lodging facilities (especially higher end ones) in the future. A high-end inn or boutique hotel would serve this market.
The “inn” concept could apply to a smaller hotel of 150 to 250 rooms with conferencing facilities and could include a spa as well. This facility could be developed as Windsor’s version of the Sonoma Mission Inn (a 226-room facility) and be a very attractive addition to the Town. More importantly, it would allow Windsor to capture more of Sonoma County’s visitor dollars. It is important to note that the success of these operations depends heavily on the expertise, business acumen, and resources of individual operators.
If further analysis suggests demand for a new hotel, the Downtown Area is a logical central location with good freeway access, adjacency to retail and restaurants, and proximity to the Train Station, which will eventually serve SMART Train passengers.
If the Town is interested in pursuing the development of a boutique hotel and adjoining conferencing facility, the Casa Madrona Hotel & Spa in Sausalito could serve as a model for this hybrid concept. Casa Madrona offers 5,000 square feet of flexible meeting space that can be used for business meetings, executive retreats, and company banquets. The operations of Casa Madrona are supported by the boutique hotel which offers 32 rooms.
Examples of joint hotel and conferencing facilities in the competitive Trade Area are summarized below:
• Hyatt Vineyard Creek Hotel and Spa is located off Highway 101 in Santa Rosa. In addition to 155 guestrooms, amenities include a full-service spa, sculpture garden, 12-foot fire pit, as well as a restaurant and multiple lounges. The hotel offers 15,000 square feet of indoor meeting space including 15 meetings spaces that range from board rooms to
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ballrooms. For weddings and outdoor events, the Hyatt features two gardens and a courtyard that total 22,000 square feet. The hotel and spa appears to sit on site that is approximately 10 acres.
• Fountaingrove Inn Hotel and Conference Center is situated in the northern part of Santa Rosa along Highway 101 on a site that appears to be fewer than five acres. The hotel offers 123 guestrooms as well as 7,000 square feet of conference space with close proximity to Fountaingrove Golf and Athletic Club, a private club featuring an award-winning Ted Robinson Sr. designed golf course, and a 10,000 sq. ft. athletic facility.
• Flamingo Conference Resort and Spa is found on the east side of Santa Rosa off Highway 12. This hotel provides 13,000 square feet of meeting space and 170 guestrooms. The Flamingo promotes its 20,000 square-foot health club which includes five tennis courts, Olympic size pool, and group exercise room. The resort and spa appears to sit on a site that is approximately 12 acres.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 65 P:\19000s\19141windsor\Report\19141rpt_091710.doc Table 24 Town of Windsor Hotel Market Indicators, 2010 Town of Windsor Retail Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study; EPS #19141
Opening # of Occupancy Avg $/Room Name of Establishment Date Rooms Rate Weekend Weekday
Hotel Inventory Holiday Inn Express June-05 75 not available $170 $139 Hampton Inn Suites November-08 116 70% $179 $139 Trend West by Windham (time-share) [1]
Subtotal 191 $175 $139
[1] Trend West by Windham is a time share that makes unreserved rooms available to the public as part of the hotel market. The irregularity of this occurrence make it difficult to track occupancy and room rates. 66 Sources: Individual hotel websites; Hampton Inn Suites; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
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