Final Report Town of Windsor Retail Market Analysis and Strategic Positioning Study Prepared for: Town of Windsor Prepared by: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. September 2010 EPS #19141 Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .................................................................. 1 Background.............................................................................................................. 2 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................ 3 Recommended Strategies and Actions ......................................................................... 6 2. DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS ............................................... 9 Population and Household Growth Trends .................................................................... 9 Age, Ethnicity, and Income ........................................................................................ 9 Job Profile.............................................................................................................. 14 Commute and Work Location Patterns ....................................................................... 14 ABAG Population and Employment Projections ............................................................ 18 Alternative Household Growth Projections .................................................................. 18 3. RETAIL MARKET AREA AND CONTEXT......................................................................... 21 Regional Retail Context............................................................................................ 21 Local Retail Context ................................................................................................ 21 4. TRADE AREA BOUNDARIES..................................................................................... 27 Definition of Windsor’s Trade Areas ........................................................................... 27 5. RETAIL MARKET ASSESSMENT................................................................................. 31 Retail Sales by Location ........................................................................................... 31 Current Retail Demand ............................................................................................ 31 Total Retail Demand................................................................................................ 41 Future Retail Demand Potential................................................................................. 41 6. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES .......................................................................... 47 Southern Windsor ................................................................................................... 47 Downtown Windsor ................................................................................................. 51 Northern Windsor.................................................................................................... 54 Table of Contents 7. BELL VILLAGE ................................................................................................... 56 Bell Village Project Retail Mix.................................................................................... 56 Assessment of Impact of Bell Village ......................................................................... 60 8. VISITOR-SERVING RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY MARKET ASSESSMENT ..................................... 61 Branding and Place-Making ...................................................................................... 61 Downtown Retail..................................................................................................... 61 Meeting/Conference Facility...................................................................................... 63 Boutique Hotel........................................................................................................ 64 List of Tables Table 1: Population, Households, Jobs, and Household Income Estimates and Forecasts....... 10 Table 2: Age Distribution in Town of Windsor and Sonoma County..................................... 11 Table 3: Windsor and Sonoma County Population by Ethnicity........................................... 12 Table 4: Household Income Distribution ......................................................................... 13 Table 5: Town of Windsor and Sonoma County Distribution of Jobs.................................... 15 Table 6: Town of Windsor Major Employers..................................................................... 16 Table 7: Town of Windsor and Larkfield-Wikiup Commute Patterns, 2008 ........................... 17 Table 8: Town of Windsor Alternative 2035 Growth Projections ......................................... 20 Table 9: Competitive Shopping Centers .......................................................................... 23 Table 10: Primary and Secondary Trade Area Demographics Used in Analysis ....................... 30 Table 11: Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$) ........................................... 32 Table 12: Town of Windsor Taxable Retail Sales, Detailed Account-Level Data, FY 2007/08 .... 34 Table 13: 2008 Household Retail Sales and Estimated Demand in Windsor ........................... 36 Table 14: Household Spending by Category Compared with State, 2008 .............................. 37 Table 15: 2008 Estimated Retail Demand for Select Categories in Windsor (in Square Feet) ... 40 Table 16: 2008 Household Retail Sales and Estimated Demand in Total Trade Area ............... 42 Table 17: Estimated Actual Sales and Retail Demand......................................................... 43 Table 18: Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035 ......................................................... 44 Table 19: Estimated Townwide Retail Demand, 2035 (in Square Feet) ................................. 46 Table 20: Competitive Supply of Big Box Retail ................................................................. 50 Table 21: Grocery Store Demand Analysis, 2035 ............................................................... 57 List of Tables Table 22: Windsor Grocery Store Demand Analysis Based on EPS Household Growth Projections .......................................................................................... 59 Table 23: Visitor-Generated Tax Receipts by County .......................................................... 62 Table 24: Town of Windsor Hotel Market Indicators, 2010 .................................................. 66 List of Figures Figure 1: Windsor in Regional Context............................................................................. 22 Figure 2: Windsor Shopping Areas .................................................................................. 25 Figure 3: Primary and Secondary Trade Areas .................................................................. 28 Figure 4: Town of Windsor Taxable Sales, 2003-2008 (2008$) ........................................... 33 Figure 5: Retail Sales and Estimated Demand .................................................................. 38 Figure 6: Windsor Downtown Area .................................................................................. 52 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Retail conditions in the Town of Windsor are presently mixed, with some positive indicators amid other weak indicators—both of which signal opportunities to improve the Town’s retail performance through targeted strategies. Consistent with the downturn in the national economy, retail sales in the Town of Windsor have weakened in recent years. Yet even with the overall decline in sales, there are categories of retail in the Town that are performing very well. Actual retail sales in the Town of Windsor exceed household spending on retail goods and services, suggesting that, at gross levels, Windsor is serving the retail needs of its residents and attracting additional sales from outside the Town.1 The Town has been and continues to be very successful at meeting residents’ demand for local goods and personal services with an adequate supply of grocery stores, banks, general merchandise, building materials, and health and personal care stores in Town. Retail uses are distributed among various areas of the Town, including Old Downtown, Shiloh Road, Old Redwood Highway east of Highway 101, Old Redwood Highway north of downtown, and Shiloh Road/Village interchange. Downtown Windsor has a successful array of smaller, primarily independently-owned retailers that give diversity and character to its core. However, the retail mix could be strengthened to better serve resident needs and visitors. The Town is undersupplied in clothing and shoe stores; furniture and home furnishings stores; auto-related stores; and electronics and appliance stores. In these categories, the Town is leaking sales to other communities, primarily nearby Santa Rosa. The Town is also leaking sales in the category of eating and drinking places, perhaps to Healdsburg and communities north of Windsor. For some types of specialty goods, such as women’s apparel, Windsor residents may travel beyond Santa Rosa to enjoy shopping experiences in Marin and even San Francisco. However, there are significant opportunity sites available in the Town that are explored in detail in this study. The retail industry is dynamic and requires near-constant reinvention to stay ahead of competitive trends and