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Middle East and North Africa Regional Report BTI 2014

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Middle East and North Africa Regional Report BTI 2014 Middle East and North Africa A sobering summer The Arab Spring drove out the autocrats, giving many citizens the ability to vote freely for the fi rst time. Yet the political and economic situation is in many places precarious, and some regimes have become even more repressive. The war in Syria offers perhaps the most disconcerting example of just how uncertain things are in the Middle East and North Africa. Much debate and argument has been and Either way, the upheavals of 2011 made al comparison among those countries regis- continues to be devoted to the peculiarities history. Muammar al-Qadhafi was wrested tering the largest gains in the area of de- of the Arab Spring. Were the events that from his control of Libya after 42 years, Ali mocracy. However, several countries have took place in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Abdallah Salih lost Yemen’s presidency af- taken signifi cant steps backward with re- other countries of the region “genuine” revo- ter 33 years in power, Hosni Mubarak was spect to political transformation. In the lutions? After decades of autocratic rule, driven from Egypt’s presidential offi ce af- cases of Bahrain and Syria, both of which can local populations cast off despotism and ter 30 years, and Ben Ali abdicated as Tuni- have been marked by violent confl ict, this tyranny and build new democracies? Can sia’s president after 24 years. During the may not be particularly surprising. Yet even the Islamists, who have emerged as the new period under review, the citizens of Egypt, a country such as Oman, commonly regard- majority power in almost all the post-revolu- Libya and Tunisia were called to participate ed as a haven of stability and reliability, reg- tionary Arab countries, prove themselves in the fi rst free and fair elections in the his- istered major political setbacks. It is typical capable of democratic engagement, or will tory of their countries. Fundamental free- that the remaining autocrats, safely out of they simply replace authoritarian presiden- doms and assembly rights have been sig- the spotlight focused on the revolutionary tial regimes with increasingly theocratic nifi cantly strengthened, while political par- states, have worked all but unnoticed to sup- forms of rule and forfeit liberalization? And, ties and civil society organizations have been press emerging democratization eff orts, thus fi nally, if this was a “spring,” what comes founded. cementing their absolute rule. next? A summer that brings these societies Nevertheless, a look at the data con- Consequently, the regional average for to political, economic and social bloom? Or, tained in the BTI 2014 is sobering. To be all 19 countries with respect to political rather, a heat wave that withers all hope? sure, Egypt and Tunisia belong even in glob- transformation shows no notable improve- 70 Middle East and North Africa Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iran Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Sudan Syria Tunisia Turkey UA Emirates Yemen Political transformation Economic transformation Transformation management TUNISIA TURKEY SYRIA LEBANON MOROCCO JORDAN IRAQ IRAN KUWAIT ALGERIA LIBYA EGYPT BAHRAIN QATAR UNITED ARAB SAUDI EMIRATES ARABIA OMAN SUDAN YEMEN ment. Signifi cant gains were shown only by ates was the only country in the region that performance remained nearly stable, al- Tunisia (+ 1.95, with the strongest improve- drove economic transformation forward by though at a low level compared to the global ments in political transformation world- a signifi cant margin (+ 0.68). Thus, with re- average of 4.92. Signifi cantly improved man- wide), Egypt (+ 1.37), Libya (+ 1.03) and, fol- spect to the state of economic transforma- agement scores for Libya following the fall lowing with some distance, Algeria (+ 0.50). tion, the Middle East and North Africa (at of Qadhafi (+ 1.21) and for Yemen in the post- All other countries remained constant or 5.44 points) remains ahead of Post-Soviet Salih era (+ 0.85) contrast with declines ob- showed declines. Oman fell by 0.57 and Eurasia (5.22), South and East Africa (4.73) served in Oman (– 0.75) and Syria (– 1.79). Bahrain by 0.70 points, while Syria lost a and West and Central Africa (4.31), while full 1.15 points and was relegated to the nevertheless being the only region to show status of a “failing state” as a result of its an appreciable decline. In the Status Index, dramatically reduced stateness. which combines political and economic Adding economic transformation trends transformation levels, the Middle East and to this stocktaking prompts an even more North Africa region takes the penultimate sobering assessment. The region’s average position among all regions with a score of score here declined by 0.40 points, with 4.80, only a bit ahead of West and Central Egypt, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen Africa (4.79). taking the hindmost positions in the global In the Management Index, by contrast, ranking of countries registering the most the regional average showed no notable signifi cant setbacks. The United Arab Emir- change. With a value of 4.14, management 71 5.80 | Tunisia 5.45 | Egypt 3.95 | UA Emirates 4.10 | Iraq 4.80 | Algeria 3.65 | Bahrain 4.70 | Kuwait 3.32 | Oman 4.13 | Libya 3.27 | Yemen 7.55 | Turkey 4.10 | Jordan 3.13 | Iran 6.00 | Lebanon 4.00 | Morocco 2.73 | Saudi Arabia 4.00 | Qatar 2.45 | Sudan 2.03 | Syria z 0 2 3 6 8 Democracies in Defective Highly defective Moderate Hard-line consolidation democracies democracies autocracies autocracies Political transformation Score 10 to 8 Score < 8 to 6 Score < 6 Score > 4 Score < 4 z failing state A revolution’s dilemma Greater freedom of expression and assembly, a stronger separation of powers, free and fair elections: In certain key areas, the revolutionary countries have certainly drawn nearer to democracy. At the same time, however, basic civil rights are not suffi ciently protected in most Arab countries – and in the autocracies of the Persian Gulf, they are subjected to even stronger pressures. Tunisia, as the starting point of the wave of By contrast, Libya’s professionally con- tendencies between its North and South. political transformation, has demonstrated ducted parliamentary elections, held in July Terrorist activities by al-Qaeda in the Arabi- the most impressive development. It has 2012 following the struggles against the an Peninsula complicate the situation. improved by almost two points and by two Qadhafi regime, came as a surprise. Yet Bahrain and Syria represent the two categories, and is no longer deemed by the without a diverse party landscape, and fol- tragic exceptions within the Arab Spring. BTI to be a hard-line autocracy, but rather a lowing years of isolation, consolidating the The rebellion – particularly by Shi’ite Bahrai- highly defective democracy. new system will be diffi cult. The unstable nis – against exclusion, social grievances and The transformation process was more security situation is a source of particular the rule of the Sunni dynasty was bloodily diffi cult in Egypt, whose population size al- concern. Considering the completely inade- suppressed with the help of Saudi and Emi- ready renders its problems signifi cantly quate protection of civil rights, Libya is ulti- rati troops. This action, which went largely more severe. Here, stagnation is evident: Af- mately still categorized as an autocracy. unopposed by Western governments, must ter the Constitutional Court’s dissolution of Yemen’s political record has turned out be seen in the context of geostrategic con- the lower legislative house in the summer of to be similarly mixed. After a diffi cult strug- cerns. Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran 2012, followed by the upper house a year lat- gle, President Ali Abdallah Salih was driven are competing for regional dominance with- er, Egypt lacks a functional legislature – an to abdicate. However, he left successor Abdu in the Persian Gulf, a rivalry that also has example of how politics is increasingly bro- Rabbu Mansour Hadi a highly fragile state religious undertones. With its Shi’ite major- kered as a dispute between the Muslim in political, economic and social terms. Thus, ity and Sunni ruling family, tiny Bahrain is Brotherhood-controlled executive and a judi- Yemen, next to Sudan the poorest country in an important element in the Saudi domi- ciary favorably inclined toward the military. the Arab world, shows increasing separatist nance strategy. 72 Middle East and North Africa Syria’s drama has played out in reverse. Population: 10.8 mn Where is Tunisia headed? Here, a majority Sunni population is gov- Life expectancy: 74.8 years erned by a ruling family of Alawites, an off - GDP p.c. PPP: $9,795 The greatest upheaval in Tunisia’s recent history shoot of Shi’ite Islam. Bashar al-Assad has occurred on the eve of the BTI 2014 survey peri- shown a willingness to use force that over- od: On January 14, 2011, autocratic president Rank shadows even the cruelty of his father and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali fl ed the country. Since 64 predecessor, Hafi z al-Assad. According to then, Tunisia has held elections to establish a Na- United Nations estimates, around 100,000 tional Constituent Assembly tasked with drafting people had already lost their lives by the a new constitution and gone through several summer of 2013, and hundreds of thousands transitional governments. Throughout, Tunisia have been forced to fl ee the country. has been engaged in a turbulent transformation In general, a sharp decline in the protec- process the outcome of which remains uncertain. tion of civil rights can be noted in many of Political transformation BTI 2006 – BTI 2014 On the one hand, Tunisia has made greater gains the region’s countries, refl ected particularly in political transformation than any other BTI in strong discrimination against women country and is, for the fi rst time, classifi ed as a as well as religious and ethnic minorities.
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