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Morning Briefing Global Economic Trading Calendar

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Morning Briefing Global Economic Trading Calendar A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl Morning Briefing March 12h 2015 Thursday sees a full day of data, with Council Member KlaasKnot speaks and be up 0.4%also excluding the German and French final inflation in Amsterdam. gasoline station sales. numbers the early feature. EMU data at 1000GMT sees the The US January business At 0700GMT, the German final January industrial output numbers inventories data will cross the wires February harmonised inflation data cross the wires. at 1400GMT. will be published. to be followed by the French numbers at 0745GMT Across the Atlantic, the calendar gets The value of business inventories is and the Spanish data at 0800GMT. underway at 1230GMT, with the expected to fall 0.2% in January after release of the February retail sales, small gains in recent months. ECB Executive Board Member February import/export index and the Benoit Coeure will deliver a speech jobless claims data for the March 7 Late data sees the US February on the future of euro area week. Treasury Statement set for release at investment, quantitative easing, and 1800GMT and Greek debt, in Paris, starting The level of initial jobless claims is at0745GMT. expected to fall by 12,000 to 308,000 the M2 money supply data for the in the March 7 week after rising by Mar 2 week at 2030GMT. Then, at 0915GMT, ECB Governing 7,000 in the previous week. The four- Council Member Jens Weidmann will week moving average rose by The U.S. Treasury is expected to hold a press conference, in 10,250 to 304,750 in the February 28 post a $188.5 billion budget deficit Frankfurt. week, a second straight double-digit for February, slightly smaller than the increase.. $193.5 billion gap in February 2014. There is little in the way of UK data, but the February trade numbers will Retail sales are forecast to rise by ECB Executive Board Member cross \the wires at 0930GMT. 0.3% in February after sharp price- Benoit Coeure will speak on the links led declines in the previous two between monetary policy and There is further ECB speak at months. Retail sales are expected to growth, in Paris, starting at 1000GMT, when ECB Governing up 0.5% excluding motor vehicles 2000GMT.. Global Economic Trading Calendar Markets FOREX: A relatively busy day this closed down 28 pts at 17,635.39, the morning in the Asia-Pacific as the Nasdaq Composite down 10 pts at GOLD: Comment - A one-way street euro fell to levels not seen since 4,849.941 and the S&P 500 down 4 for gold at the moment, as the metal March 2003 and remains at risk of pts at 2,040.24. The DJIA posted a continues its descent within a well- further falls later in the session while new life-time high of 18,288.63 established downtrend channel. the aussie saw a brief rally after March 2 and the S&P 500 a new life- Seemingly the only dilemma facing better-than-expected labor force data time high of 2,119.59 Feb 25. The specs is maintaining patience long out earlier. Aussie-dollar was last at Nasdaq Composite posted a new 15- enough to allow for profit taking / $0.7580, after a brief rise to $0.7637 year plus high of 5,008.5670 March short covering rallies to provide them earlier today following the jobs data. 2. with suitable entry levels. Gold is It closed at $0.7581 last night in the now effectively in lockstep with the US. Euro-dollar meanwhile was last US TSY FUTURES: Treasury futures EUR/USD (strong US dollar = weak at $1.0512, in a $1.0505 to $1.0556 have failed to be inspired by the gold) and has remained so in Far range today. Elsewhere, the New Bank of Koreas surprise move to cut Eastern trading today. With Zealand dollar has reversed most of rates to 1.75% from 2.00%, with 10yr consensus favouring a EUR/USD at the gains seen earlier today after the futures only up 1-tick on volumes of parity sooner rather than later, it is RBNZ's decision to keep rates on around ~13k. The BOK's move hard to argue that gold's downward hold. The NZ dollar, or kiwi, was last follows Thailand's surprise rate cut momentum will not see it re-test the at $0.7291, in a $0.7274 to $0.7329 yesterday and makes it the 24th rate Nov 7th low at $1131.25 in the not- range today and not very much cut this year globally. The countries too-distant future. Turnover of 2.19 changed vs. the overnight close of that have eased rates this year are mio ozs has been seen through the $0.7294. as follows: Uzbekistan, Romania, exchanges as at 0440 GMT. Switzerland, Egypt, Peru, Turkey, US INDEX FUTURES: US stock Canada, European Central Bank, OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Apr'15 index futures are trading slightly Pakistan, Singapore, Albania, delivery last down $0.03 at $48.14 higher in line with stronger regional Russia, Australia, China, Denmark, per barrel, after a $48.12 to $48.44 equity markets on reasonable Sweden, Indonesia, Botswana, range in Asia today, with much of the volumes. Currently, the March mini- Israel, India, Poland, Thailand and day's volume devoted to the switch S&P futures are trading up 3.50 South Korea. out of Apr'15 as spot and into points at 2,043.00, the March mini- May'15. The spread has widened Nasdaq futures are trading 8.00 JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks from -$1.86 to -$1.97 and currently points at 4,315.50 while the March have posted solid gains at the sits at -$1.95 last with 4k lots mini-Dow futures are trading up 35 conclusion of Thursday's morning through. Wednesday's DOE data points at 16,673. trade buoyed by a weakening yen showed another rise in crude and a surprise rate cut from the Bank stockpiles which was close to US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks of Korea. The Nikkei has closed for expectations, and a small drop in opened in positive territory, turned lunch up 1.10% or 205.14 points at gasoline inventory, but an expected mixed and then closed in the red. 18,928.66, while the Topix is up large fall in distillate ended up a large The Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.11% or 17.00 points at 1,542.67. rise. Technical Analysis BUND: (M15) Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower *RES 4: 160.37 Bollinger band top *RES 3: 160.00 2015 & Record High *RES 2: 159.22 Low Feb 27 now resistance *RES 1: 158.90 Low Feb 25 now resistance *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.56 *SUP 1: 157.81 55-DMA *SUP 2: 157.26 Low Mar 10 *SUP 3: 156.19 Bollinger band base *SUP 4: 155.81 Low Mar 5 *COMMENTARY: Topside gains continued for the contract Wednesday with bulls now targeting the 160.00 level where 2015 and record highs are located. The 55-DMA remains key support with bears needing a close below to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to the 155.24-155.81 region. Daily studies are correcting from O/S and the Bollinger band top is not yet an issue which leaves bulls room to move and consolidation above the 21-DMA also adds support to the bullish scenario. EUROSTOXX: Immediate Focus On Bollinger Band Top *RES 4: 3900.3 Monthly High May 2 2008 *RES 3: 3790.5 High May 30 2008 *RES 2: 3681.4 Bollinger band top *RES 1: 3662.3 Low June 5 2008 now resistance *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3649.4 *SUP 1: 3549.1 Low Mar 10 *SUP 2: 3529.7 21-DMA *SUP 3: 3495.3 High Feb 19 now support *SUP 4: 3439.2 Low Feb 19 *COMMENTARY: The strength of the current rally continues to be confirmed by bounces from dips back towards the key 3529.1 support level. The 21-DMA comes in just above this level with bears needing a close below to end bullish hopes and hint at a move lower whereas a close below 3495.3 confirms a shift in focus to the 3321.6-3381.3 region where the 55-DMA is located. Bullish focus remains on the Bollinger band tops. Contact MNI: Clive Tillbrook – European Managing Editor + 44 207 862 7400, [email protected] MNI Sales - [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Published by Eurex Zürich AG www.eurexchange.com Eurex Frankfurt AG Selnaustrasse 30 ARBN Number Mergenthalerallee 61 8021 Zurich Eurex Frankfurt AG ARBN 100 999 65760 Frankfurt / Main Switzerland 764 Germany © Eurex, January 2008-2010 Deutsche Börse AG (DBAG), Clearstream Banking AG (Clearstream), Eurex Frankfurt AG, Eurex Clearing AG (Eurex Clearing) as well as Eurex Bonds GmbH (Eurex Bonds) and Eurex Repo GmbH (Eurex Repo) are corporate entities and are registered under German law. Eurex Zürich AG is a corporate entity and is registered under Swiss law. Clearstream Banking S.A. is a corporate entity and is registered under Luxembourg law. U.S. Exchange Holdings, Inc. and International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (ISE) are corporate entities and are registered under U.S. American law. Eurex Frankfurt AG (Eurex) is the administrating and operating institution of Eurex Deutschland. Eurex Deutschland and Eurex Zürich AG are in the following referred to as the “Eurex Exchanges”. All intellectual property, proprietary and other rights and interests in this publication and the subject matter hereof (other than certain trademarks and service marks listed below) are owned by DBAG and its affiliates and subsidiaries including, without limitation, all patent, registered design, copyright, trademark and service mark rights.
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