Turkey's Slide Into Authoritarianism
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The Islamic State: How Viable Is It? Yoram Schweitzer and Omer Einav, Editors
The Islamic State: How Viable Is It? Yoram Schweitzer and Omer Einav, Editors COVER The Islamic State: How Viable Is It? Yoram Schweitzer and Omer Einav, Editors Institute for National Security Studies THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURcITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE b d TheCENTER FOR STRA InstituteTEGIC STUDIES for National Security Studies (INSS), incorporating the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, was founded in 2006. The purpose of the Institute for National Security Studies is first, to conduct basic research that meets the highest academic standards on matters related to Israel’s national security as well as Middle East regional and international security affairs. Second, the Institute aims to contribute to the public debate and governmental deliberation of issues that are – or should be – at the top of Israel’s national security agenda. INSS seeks to address Israeli decision makers and policymakers, the defense establishment, public opinion makers, the academic community in Israel and abroad, and the general public. INSS publishes research that it deems worthy of public attention, while it maintains a strict policy of non-partisanship. The opinions expressed in this publication are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute, its trustees, boards, research staff, or the organizations and individuals that support its research. The Islamic State: How Viable Is It? Yoram Schweitzer and Omer Einav, Editors THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURcITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE b d CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES המדינה האסלאמית דגל שחור מתנוסס מעליה יורם שוייצר ועומר עינב, עורכים Editor: Judith Rosen Graphic design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber Cover design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Adva Lubrani Printing: Elinir Institute for National Security Studies (a public benefit company) 40 Haim Levanon Street POB 39950 Ramat Aviv Tel Aviv 6997556 Tel. -
Turkey: Selected Foreign Policy Issues and U.S
Turkey: Selected Foreign Policy Issues and U.S. Views Carol Migdalovitz Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs November 28, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL34642 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Turkey: Selected Foreign Policy Issues and U.S. Views Summary This report focuses on the foreign policy of Turkey, a long-time valued U.S. NATO ally, and examines the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) recalculation of the country’s approach to foreign affairs and its possible effects on relations with the United States. It begins with a discussion of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s theoretical framework for a multidirectional outreach less firmly anchored in the West than in the past and his efforts to seek “zero problems” with Turkey’s neighbors and new partners beyond. The AKP is able to follow these guidelines because it has consolidated its political power domestically, exerted unprecedented control over the formerly powerful military, and spurred robust economic growth. The desire for export markets is a major motivator for the directional diversification, and the growth in trade, in turn, contributes to the prosperity and growth of AKP’s middle class base which is strengthening the party. Increasingly, the party’s Islamist origins also appear to be determining policy. Moreover, the party’s foreign policy independence appeals to the traditionally strong nationalism of the Turks and, therefore, contributes to its popularity at home. This report surveys Turkish foreign policy issues that are of critical interest to U.S. officials and Members of Congress. Three main categories of issues are: ones on which Turkish and U.S. -
Secularism and Foreign Policy in Turkey New Elections, Troubling Trends
Secularism and Foreign Policy in Turkey New Elections, Troubling Trends Soner Cagaptay Policy Focus #67 | April 2007 All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any infor- mation storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2007 by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy Published in 2007 in the United States of America by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036. Design by Daniel Kohan, Sensical Design and Communication Front cover: Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad speak through a translator during a meeting in Tehran, December 3, 2006. The photos above them depict the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and current Supreme Leader Ali Hossein Khamenei. Copyright AP Wide World Photos/Vahid Salemi. About the Author Soner Cagaptay is a senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute’s Turkish Research Program. His extensive writings on U.S.-Turkish relations and related issues have appeared in numerous scholarly journals and major international print media, including Middle East Quarterly, Middle Eastern Studies, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post, Reuters, Guardian, Der Spiegel, and La Stampa. He also appears regularly on Fox News, CNN, NPR, Voice of America, al-Jazeera, BBC, CNN-Turk, and al-Hurra. His most recent book is Islam, Secularism, and Nationalism in Modern Turkey: Who Is a Turk? (Routledge, 2006). A historian by training, Dr. -
Turkey's Nationalist Course: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army
TURKEY’S NATIONALIST COURSE Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the U.S. Army Stephen J. Flanagan, F. Stephen Larrabee, Anika Binnendijk, Katherine Costello, Shira Efron, James Hoobler, Magdalena Kirchner, Jeffrey Martini, Alireza Nader, Peter A. Wilson C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2589 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0141-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Rouhani, Putin, and Erdogan: Tolga Bozoglu/AP. Erdogan Stoltenberg: AP. Istanbul: Kivanc Turkalp/Getty Images/iStockphoto. Cover design by Rick Penn-Kraus Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. -
Research Notes
Number 19 — June 2014 RESEARCH NOTES THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY Turkey’s Commitment to NATO NOT YET GROUNDS FOR DIVORCE Richard Outzen urkey’s September 2013 preliminary selection of Concern, in fact, has become widespread—some a Chinese company to build its first long-range observers now view Turkey as the most problematic T air- and missile-defense system raised eyebrows member of the alliance, a view quietly echoed by in Western capitals and boardrooms. Was Turkey NATO insiders.5 This is not just because of the Chi- signaling an important shift away from its commit- nese air-defense deal; other reasons include authori- ment to NATO by selecting a Chinese system in an tarian measures taken by Prime Minister Recep area of serious and sensitive need?1 Turkey has long Tayyip Erdogan,6 disagreements over whether the supplemented its array of U.S. and European defense United States should continue to maintain nuclear purchases with gear from non-NATO allies such as weapons in Turkey,7 public ambivalence in Tur- South Korea or Israel, and has sought generally to key regarding NATO,8 and the growing perception develop its defense-industrial capacity, but the Turks that Turkey’s foreign policy goals and ambitions do have not previously partnered with a non-Western not overlap with the U.S. or NATO sphere of inter- power on such a critical technology—let alone with est and influence as they once did.9 No doubt, Tur- the Chinese.2 Fears that the air-defense deal indi- key’s continued active role in NATO organizations cated a deepening strategic rift have been exacerbated and its helpful deployment of troops to Afghanistan by other troubling signs, including Turkey’s reported underline a continued willingness to play major roles sharing of sensitive intelligence with the Iranians and in NATO when its key interests are at stake. -
1 Turkey's Lax Approach to Countering Terrorism Key Findings
Turkey’s Lax Approach to Countering Terrorism Key Findings • Turkey maintains open relations with internationally sanctioned extremist groups and harbors internationally sanctioned and wanted extremists affiliated with the Taliban, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Hamas. Taliban officials maintain a presence in Turkey, while several Brotherhood leaders sought refuge there after the collapse of the Brotherhood government in Egypt. Hamas has operated a bureau in Istanbul since 2012. • Turkey has not devoted the appropriate resources to monitoring the financial workings of its non-profit sector, according to the U.S. Department of State. In particular, the NGO Turkish Humanitarian Relief Foundation faces international accusations of aiding Syrian rebel forces, al-Qaeda, and Hamas. • Turkish financial institutions, with support of Turkish officials, have aided in skirting U.S. sanctions against Iran. Ankara, Turkey (Source: Wikimedia Commons) Overview Longtime U.S. ally Turkey—a member of the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS and NATO—has supported and harbored international terrorist organizations and individuals. The Turkish 1 government has lent support to the Muslim Brotherhood,1 Hamas,2 and Syrian rebel groups.3 Turkey continues to harbor members of the Muslim Brotherhood who sought refuge in the country after the 2015 fall of the Brotherhood government in Egypt.4 According to the U.S. Department of State, Turkey is host to terrorist organizations with links to narcotics trafficking. As such, the U.S. government has declared Turkey “vulnerable to money laundering and terrorist finance risks.”5 Further, the Turkish government has allowed terror- linked charities to operate within the country. Most prominently, the Turkish Humanitarian 1 Svante Cornell and M.K. -
Turkey's President Erdoğan Is Losing Ground at Home
GETTY KARA IMAGES/BURAK Turkey’s President Erdoğan Is Losing Ground at Home By Max Hoffman August 2020 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG Contents 1 Introduction and summary 3 A dominant—but diverse—conservative bloc 8 Coronavirus confusion or a lasting shift? 15 Political implications 20 Conclusion 21 About the author and acknowledgments 22 Endnotes Introduction and summary Despite a recent bump in his approval rating—an uptick shared by many leaders around the world during the coronavirus crisis—a substantial body of evidence shows that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is losing ground domestically under the pressure of a cratering economy, an ongoing refugee crisis, and his long- term incumbency. Young Turkish conservatives and some less ideological right- wing nationalists—crucial constituencies that Erdoğan cannot afford to lose—are unhappy with the state of the country and are increasingly considering potential conservative alternatives or successors. Undoubtedly, President Erdoğan remains the undisputed leader of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Turkish right in general, but waning enthusiasm presents a real threat to his continued dominance. Young voters may desert him in sufficient numbers to allow the opposition to defeat him in the next election, now scheduled for 2023, but genuine conservative alternatives are unlikely to mate- rialize unless and until he loses an election or otherwise withdraws from the scene. President Erdoğan’s dominance of the AKP apparatus, patronage structure, and the Turkish judiciary is a powerful disincentive to conservative challengers but may not be enough to deliver another electoral victory. Still, Erdoğan’s weakening domestic position has important ramifications short of vulnerability in eventual elections. -
Turkey's New Regional Security Role
The United States Army War College The United States Army War College educates and develops leaders for service at the strategic level while advancing knowledge in the global application of Landpower. The purpose of the United States Army War College is to produce graduates who are skilled critical thinkers and complex problem solvers. Concurrently, it is our duty to the U.S. Army to also act as a “think factory” for commanders and civilian leaders at the strategic level worldwide and routinely engage in discourse and debate concerning the role of ground forces in achieving national security objectives. The Strategic Studies Institute publishes national security and strategic research and analysis to influence policy debate and bridge the gap between military and academia. The Center for Strategic Leadership and Development CENTER for contributes to the education of world class senior STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP and DEVELOPMENT leaders, develops expert knowledge, and provides U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE solutions to strategic Army issues affecting the national security community. The Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute provides subject matter expertise, technical review, and writing expertise to agencies that develop stability operations concepts and doctrines. U.S. Army War College The Senior Leader Development and Resiliency program supports the United States Army War College’s lines of SLDR effort to educate strategic leaders and provide well-being Senior Leader Development and Resiliency education and support by developing self-awareness through leader feedback and leader resiliency. The School of Strategic Landpower develops strategic leaders by providing a strong foundation of wisdom grounded in mastery of the profession of arms, and by serving as a crucible for educating future leaders in the analysis, evaluation, and refinement of professional expertise in war, strategy, operations, national security, resource management, and responsible command.