Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map Cleo Paskal

Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map Cleo Paskal Associate Fellow at Chatham House Royal Institute of International Affairs, London 6pm-7.30pm, Thursday 1 April 2010 On the first of April the Auckland branch of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs was treated to a seminar given by Cleo Paskal, an associate fellow at Chatham House, titled: “Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map.” Paskal began her talk by outlining that what we may have thought were „constants‟ in geo-politics are now becoming „variables‟. There is now more variability than ever across geo-politics and geo-economics, due to increasing environmental change. Areas that have been stable for a very long time now appear to be vulnerable. Terminology Paskal made a clear distinction between environmental change and climate change. Environmental change includes a variety of factors, of which climate change is a part. It can have, and is having, economic and political security impacts in both the developing and developed worlds. Smaller triggers are now able to have a much larger impact than before, and the earth may be reaching its capacity in terms of human consumption. From a security perspective, climate change is an important component. Yet other factors have to be included so that all vulnerabilities can be managed. Paskal provided the example of the havoc wreaked by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans. The hurricane itself was no larger than previous ones, yet the damage it caused was unprecedented due to poor town planning and other human errors. Moreover, false assumptions regarding the environment come into play when we think about how the world builds its cities. When we build, we build according to what resources are already there with the assumption that those resources will continue to be abundant. This may no longer be the case. Challenges to energy infrastructure Energy is a key component of the world economy, and Paskal provided examples of how environmental change will impact this. Firstly, low-lying installations like ports needed for the production and movement of oil and gas are subject to damage from rises in sea levels. Off-shore oil and gas platforms are also vulnerable to storms, as was the case during Hurricane Katrina where production ceased. This had an impact on oil prices globally, where the economy of a country as far away as New Zealand was impacted. The growing interdependence of the world economy means that everyone, not solely a single area, is subject to the outcomes of environmental change, Secondly, environmental change also poses challenges to hydra energy infrastructure. As river levels and precipitation patterns change, it is much harder to predict the optimal place to invest in a power plant. In particular, monsoon areas like India are affected. Thirdly, nuclear power facilities are primarily built close to the ocean, as an enormous amount of water is required for cooling processes. Changing coastlines and sea-level rises may impact this type of power. Paskal notes that in places like France where nuclear facilities are built by rivers that are now subject to temperature changes, this type of power generation may not be able to continue in the face of new environmental variables. Renewable energy is touted by many as the best energy choice, as it does not require a centralised grid. However, even building infrastructure like wind farms may be subject to environmental change as it is now not guaranteed that wind will be in a specific area forever. When considering energy infrastructure, a general economic perspective must be taken that incorporates preventing loss as well as promoting growth. Challenges to services Paskal continued by stating that environmental change will also have a severe impact on services and security. She drew on the example of the upcoming London Olympics scheduled for 2012. Recent flooding in the United Kingdom saw domestic security services stretched to their limits, with the biggest deployment ever of the fire union and Royal Air Force in peacetime. If further flooding coincides with the forthcoming Olympics, security and emergency services may be insufficient. Moreover, due to other sorts of security concerns like terrorism, evacuation from the Olympic site in case of environmental emergency will be difficult as entry and exit points need to be controlled. The Arctic The Arctic poses an interesting case of environmental, geo-political and geo-economic change. Most Arctic infrastructure is build on top of permafrost, which is now melting. This is relevant due to the potential impact on oil and gas supplies. Paskal pointed out that the melting permafrost will also affect the energy supply to Russia, Europe, Canada and the United States. Current transmission lines are only as good as their weakest points, and many lines pass over areas of fast-melting permafrost. Another issue in the Arctic concerns shipping routes. Melted ice may provide particularly advantageous to China, whose trading ships normally have to travel via the Suez Canal to reach Europe. A new route through the Arctic will cut around a quarter of this expensive travel time. The environmental change in the Arctic will also open up land resources. For instance, Canada has minerals that several geo-political players are interested in exploiting. Players that one would not expect to be interested in the Arctic are now working in places like Serbia. Paskal stated that players like China are actively engaging with native Canadian leaders who control large sections of resources. Here, state-based players like China are able to directly engage sub-laterally with sub-regional groups. Challenges to legal infrastructure Paskal noted the challenges surrounding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which standardises international law stating that each state is entitled to an Exclusive Economic Zone of two hundred nautical miles off their coastline. Paskal argued that the potential for disparate geo-political interests to come into play regarding this law may be great. Already, areas like the South China Sea are hotly contested by neighbouring states due to oil and gas claims. However, this law is based on the assumption that a states coastline will not change. Paskal argued the question needs to be addressed: will an EEZ retreat if a coastline does? Offshore islands often delineate a border for a country. What will become of a country’s EEZ if an offshore island disappears? No island, no claim? This may become especially problematic in the Pacific. When viewed in terms of their EEZ, Tuvalu and other Pacific states are in fact quite large. Tuvalu is extremely low-lying, and climate change may render the state as officially „disappeared‟. Tuvalu may then lose its seabed and fishing rights. Its people will also require funds for resettlement. Paskal noted that these countries could possibly benefit from their valuable EEZs. Whichever country welcomes them as refugees may also inherit its oceanic assets. According to the Law of the Sea, if a country has no land and no population it is not considered a country at all. Instead, a stretch of ocean where a country once stood will become international waters, and the country may lose its seat at the United Nations. Concluding statements Paskal argued that more damage will undoubtedly be caused if assumptions remain that the environmental status quo will continue. In these circumstances, a failure of a legal structure like UNCLOS may be equally as catastrophic as a failure of physical infrastructure. In order to truly understand geo-political and geo-economic events, one must fully grasp the geo-physical. It is no longer enough to assess human impact on the environment; people need to assess how the environment will affect the population of the world. According to Paskal, a holistic approach is needed. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions are not sufficient on their own. Imaginative solutions are vital in order to tackle environmental change and its political and economic impacts. Review by Nova Mercier .

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